Derrick Berthelsen @DerrickBerthel1 Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

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Changing geopolitical situation is shifting global alliances. Security trumps all else. Future is concentric circles of trust. CANZUK, Anglosphere, Commonwealth

Joined July 2017

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

I take a look at recent "analyses" of UK export performance which purport to demonstrate a negative brexit impact. As you can see the reality does not match the portrayal..

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British exports are doing well

The FT (and others) have been at it again. I have written before about the Financial Times’ anti-Brexit bias and how its journalists misuse data in presenting Brexit as an “entirely negative and…

thecritic.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

This morning @chrisgiles_ of the @FT sent out this tweet on the UK's deteriorating trade balance suggesting that this was a result of Brexit (apologies for the screenshot but I cannot link to the original tweet because he immediately blocked me after the following reply)

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Mortgages – some perspective You may have seen a lot of hyperbole about the mini budget causing a spike in UK Government bond yields and the effect it will have on mortgages, property prices and the general economy. I wanted to try to put the issue into perspective.

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

19 days

On Wednesday @KemiBadenoch made a speech to Parliament on the UK’s trade performance in which she stated the data: “Definitively disprove the claims of those who prophesied a catastrophic economic collapse when we left the EU to become a sovereign nation.”

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UK Trade Performance - Hansard - UK Parliament

Hansard record of the item : 'UK Trade Performance' on Wednesday 1 May 2024.

hansard.parliament.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

I replied with the following chart demonstrating that this is a Europe wide issue and a result of the rise in the price of oil and gas imports and asking him why as Economics Editor of the @FT for 14 years he either didn't know this or was he purposely misrepresenting the facts?

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Was there ever a black hole? Kwarteng’s budget offered a potential route out. Hunt’s plans are simply a self-fulfilling route to a cul-de -sac dead end And none of it was necessary…

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

In short, please take with a huge bucket of salt recent claims of the negative effects of Brexit on the UK economy. They are being pushed by those with an anti Brexit agenda and are not reflective of the underlying data.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

There has been a lot of hyperbole, exaggeration & vitriol following last week’s budget. Screams that the new PM is driving the country into recession & a property crash. Demands she should u-turn. I decided to look beyond that and at the actual data...

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Some perspective on the budget | Derrick Berthelsen | The Critic Magazine

There has been a lot of hyperbole, exaggeration and vitriol in the UK following last week’s mini budget. Screams that the new PM is driving the country into recession and a property crash.

thecritic.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

9 months

ONS revisions destroy the Brexit economic collapse narrative..

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Downfall of the Brexit doomers | Derrick Berthelsen | The Critic Magazine

By now we all “know” that Brexit has had an enormous detrimental effect on the UK economy. We “know” this because the MSM and various “independent experts” have continually told us so.

thecritic.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

Please read this by an ex Civil Servant who was involved in Brexit negotiations It is clear that Sunak has colluded with the EU to develop the Windsor Framework as a vehicle for alignment with, and even subjection to, new EU laws We must stop this now

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The Windsor Framework – a legal and democratic sting - Briefings For Britain

In a functioning democracy, one could be forgiven for believing that a sovereign Parliament would have the final say on whether foreign laws could be imposed on British citizens. But Rishi Sunak...

www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

Dear @JamesCleverly . You said UK would not sign off on the Windsor Framework changes to the NIP until all DUP concerns had been addressed. Now @duponline has announced it will vote against the Stormont break SI on Wednesday, will you vote against too?

UK will not sign off protocol deal until all DUP concerns addressed – Cleverly

The Foreign Secretary said the Government was ‘focused on resolving all the issues that need resolving’.

www.independent.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

FT (& others) have been at it again… I have written before about the FT’s anti Brexit bias & how its “journalists” selectively choose & manipulate data in an attempt to present Brexit as an ”entirely negative & irredeemable event” which must be reversed.

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The Financial Times has a Brexit problem | Derrick Berthelsen | The Critic Magazine

Last week the Office of National Statistics (ONS) published the latest UK trade data (June 2022). It showed the UK trade deficit ballooning to more than four per cent of GDP. The Economics Editor of…

thecritic.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Below I show the a chart comparing the UK and EU net trade performance over the past decade. As you can see the trend is exactly the same (although the EU started from a position of surplus) demonstrating that this is a function of oil and gas prices/imports and not Brexit.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 months

I am old enough to remember when this was a conspiracy theory Households with smart meters face paying more for electricity at busiest times of day under Ofgem plans with dynamic pricing largely dependent on “weather patterns” when its “windy or sunny”.

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Smart meter customers face time-of-day charging plan

Ofgem explores scrapping the current price cap for tariff based on demand

www.telegraph.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

There are many myths about CPTPP repeated in mainstream media. CPTPP is an unadulterated free trade agreement between its members. It is precisely what the British were told the ECC would be when they joined in 1973 – only to be profoundly disappointed.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 years

EU has spent 5 yrs saying the UK leaving the SM & CU would be so economically disastrous that there would literally be nothing we could do to make up for it. Now they say UK must accept an EU rule following LPF because otherwise the UK would be able to outcompete. Which is it?

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

4 months

The idiocy of our elites net zero policies in one statement. Shifting co2 off of the UK's balance sheet and putting it on another countries balance sheet does nothing to reduce global emissions. But it does cost jobs, revenue and tax revenue in the UK.

@EdConwaySky

Ed Conway

4 months

…because under the current Tata arc furnace plan, Port Talbot will only be able to RECYCLE steel. The UK will STILL need to import some virgin steel (eg made from iron, via a blast furnace or hydrogen DRI). Where will that come from? Most likely blast furnaces overseas…

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

With the UK seemingly intent on taking unilateral action to ensure largely unfettered trade between GB & NI, voices have again been raised suggesting that such action would necessitate a hard border on the island of Ireland in order to protect the EU SM.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Britain is better off outside SM With replacement of Boris, then Truss with Sunak & return to cabinet of prominent “Remainers” comes the inevitable calls to “rebalance relations” with EU. Code for (& now expressed openly) a demand to re-join SM.

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Britain is better off outside the Single Market | Derrick Berthelsen | The Critic Magazine

As autumn arrives and the leaves turn yellow and red, some have noticed a change in the air. It’s not just the change of season. No, the replacement of Boris Johnson, then Liz Truss with Rishi Sunak…

thecritic.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

First on UK exports to the EU. It is claimed they have collapsed since the end of the transition period. This is demonstrably false. Here is a chart using ONS data

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 months

Short answer, no.

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Did Liz Truss really cause the bond market rout?

The widely approved narrative of Liz Truss’ demise is that she and Kwasi Kwarteng triggered a collapse in the bond markets with an ideologically-driven, economically ignorant mini budget. It’s a...

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

There has been much reporting of this nature in recent months intended to create the impression that Brexit is causing a collapse in UK exports and feeding inflation. This is simply not true, so for that reason I decided to make this thread to counter this misinformation.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

As for inflation. Many claims have been made that the UK is suffering higher food inflation as a result of Brexit. well that is NOT what the data shows

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 months

The OBR Brexit analysis is fundamentally flawed When you compare apples with pears and then bananas you might get a half decent fruit salad but its terrible analysis.

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Why the OBR is wrong about Brexit | Derrick Berthelsen | The Critic Magazine

When you compare apples with pears and then bananas you might get a half decent fruit salad but you will definitely get terrible analysis. In a recent conversation, Jonathan Portes…

thecritic.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Hey @BBCNews , @SkyNews , @ITV , @Channel4News . If @GBNEWS can do the research, why aren't your world famous fact checkers doing the same?

@tomhfh

Tom Harwood

2 years

For Labour to imply that anything close to £170 billion could be raised in some sort of windfall tax is nothing short of misinformation. This morning’s fact check on this new dodgy statistic👇

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

6 months

Sunak reneged on every pledge. Instead he has done what he was appointed to do. To prevent any change or divergence from EU using the people of NI as pawns. @NigelDoddsDUP and @duponline are right to refuse to cave in. The Windsor Framework is dangerous

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The Windsor Framework is dangerous | Derrick Berthelsen | The Critic Magazine

There are many reasons to vote against the Windsor Framework changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol. Several excellent articles have been published outlining why — in this and other periodicals…

thecritic.co.uk

@NigelDoddsDUP

Nigel Dodds

6 months

Braverman reveals PM gave her "firm assurances" that he would "deliver the NI Protocol...Bill in [its] existing form & timetable". Instead he accepted an Irish Sea Border and wants unionists to do so also. No chance

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Following my threads last week outlining how the @FT were purposely (mis)representing data in an attempt to 'blame' Brexit for for anything & everything, I decided to look further into @FT Brexit bias. My article in the @TheCriticMag 👇

@TheCriticMag

The Critic

2 years

“This failure to put a single year’s growth forecast into context is not what you would expect from a detailed, balanced analysis” — @Derrickberthel1 exposes the Financial Times crusade against Brexit

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 months

We are ruled by eejits

@mlanetrain

Michael Lane

2 years

This is some grim real life dramatic irony: Nick Clegg opposing nuclear power in 2010 because it would only come on-stream by 2021 or 2022.

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 years

The UK Government has said that if the EU does not agree changes to the NIP in line with the Command Paper published in July, it will trigger Article 16. I do not expect the EU to agree any substantial reform. A quick thread on when and why I would trigger it. /1

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

The OBR Chief is wrong here. And what is more he should know this statement is wrong.

"In the long run, [Brexit] reduces our overall output by around 4 per cent", the OBR's Chair tells...

Richard Hughes says leaving the EU is a "shock to the UK economy of the order of magnitude of other shocks we've seen", such as the Covid pandemic.

conservativehome.com

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

This seems to have been missed by the FT and BBC as well....

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Meat exports tipped to soar thanks to trans-Pacific trade deal

The UK is set to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

www.thegrocer.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

The ONS has reported the latest UK trade numbers. I have charted them below. As you can see export growth is far above the long term trend with growth accelerating post the Brexit vote. CAGR 2010-2015 was 2.5% CAGR 2016-2022 was 6.0%

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

Please listen from 4 minutes in. The UK left the EU & as such should not be subject to the laws of a foreign country. Nowhere in the USA would accept that happening. Why should the UK? This should be an obvious statement.

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Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton

John Bolton, Donald Trump's former national security adviser, on the former president's impending arrest.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

This chart also disproves the argument UK export performance has been worse than EU. It compares UK exports with EU exports over the last decade. NB the outperformance of the UK since the 2016 brexit referendum vote. NB the broadly matched performance post 2020 (covid) & TCA.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

But that is not all One of the expected effects of Brexit, was increased capture of UK consumption by UK based businesses (incl reshoring). The data suggests that this is happening as shown below where UK industrial production since 2019 has outpaced Germany & France

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

I know this is going to look like I have vendetta against @FT , but I just wanted to show - again - how you can present data to drive an agenda. For example this. A chart showing the pound has fallen against the euro & dollar since brexit referendum:

@DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦

2 years

Good picture showing how sterling has devalued since 2016 - from a rough £:$ band of 1.40 - 1.70 to 1.20 to 1.40, and for £:€ 1.20 - 1.40 to 1.10 - 1.20

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 months

Just to emphasise @NJ_Timothy point about industrial electricity prices. The UK is unilaterally choosing to destroy its economy and productivity through high energy prices

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 months

Excellent by @NJ_Timothy . I just wanted to highlight a few points from the article

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Note the UK shift to a trade surplus in 2019/20 due to covid and the return to deficit in 2021 as the global economy re-opened (which some commentators have tried to ascribe to a Brexit effect post the end of the transition period).

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Here is the same chart over 25 years. you will note that the only period in that time when UK exports outperformed EU exports was the period 2016-2020. After the Brexit vote (largely because of the devaluation of the pound)

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

5 years

1/Thread on Irish border It is frequently stated that the reason the UK has to sign up to the Backstop in the WA is because the UK is legally bound both through the Belfast Agreement & Dec 2017 EU/UK progress report to prevent any trade friction on the Island of Ireland.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

@tomhfh Ok Tom, let me help you. Because the known risks of the vaccine are higher than the known risks of covid for the young.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 months

Dear @BBCPolitics . Please can you fact check this claim and then issue a rebuttal/clarification. It is simply not acceptable that your guests are allowed to continue to spread falsehoods which they themselves no to be untrue.

@ConsPost

Conservative Post

2 months

EDITOR’S NOTE: I see Liz Webster is still peddling anti-Brexit misinformation by saying joining the #CPTPP means the UK will have to 'harmonise regulations' including accepting hormone-treated beef. This is simply NOT TRUE. Get your facts right @LizWebsterSBF . #BBC #PoliticsLive

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

After I demonstrated why @ChrisGiles_ of the @FT was wrong when he tweeted a misleading chart with the tag line I hear #Brexit is going swimmingly” he doubled down with another tweet tagged “ #I still hear Brexit is going swimmingly”....

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 month

She was right. The OBR has become a perma block to change. A means to prevent democratically elected Government's delivering their policies. And Labour plan to strengthen it's powers if elected.

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Liz Truss was right about the creeping dominance of the OBR

Models in themselves are not the problem, but they are being abused to stifle innovative policies

www.telegraph.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

6 months

On the question of whether Brexit would be positive or negative for UK manufacturing and industrial production the data seems unequivocal. The doomsayers are simply wrong. Overall Brexit has (so far) significantly boosted the sector.

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UK manufacturing is significantly outperforming as a result of Brexit | Derrick Berthelsen | The...

The doomsters are wrong about Brexit — again

thecritic.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

8 months

If this isn't fake it's a disaster for Starmer. I assume this will be all over the BBC etc with journalists camped outside his house until they get to the bottom of it.

@PetroNicolaides

Prof.Petro Nicolaides 🇺🇦

@PetroNicolaides

8 months

The mask is slipping Sir Keir You're a bully. Nothing else. #MoronGate Source tagged

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

And considering the UK went from a trade surplus with the EU before the advent of the SM to a £100b pa goods trade deficit, we would expect any reversion to be on balance in the UK's benefit. Which is exactly what the data appears to be demonstrating

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 month

The hypocrisy never ceases to amaze me when David (& other independent experts) argue that unlimited mass immigration when we were in the EU did not keep wages low whilst at the same time arguing that we need mass unlimited immigration going forward to prevent wages rising.

@DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦

1 month

Price effects of Brexit are less likely to be about tariffs and goods inspections, more about rising staff costs - which is why presumably the UK government kept immigration policy relatively open in the last few years. But at political cost. Choices...

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

Brexit freedoms help drive UK tech success But you wouldn’t know it from the title… A classic of the genre Where the title gives away the author’s bias but the content can’t hide the truth

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Why London is still a hub for European tech jobs post-Brexit

Lots of high-growth companies, a focus on innovation and a vibrant start-up community – here’s why you should consider London for a career in tech.

www.euronews.com

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

23 days

There were reports over the weekend that gardaí are carrying out checks on cars and pubic transport coming from Northern Ireland but precise details of these efforts are not clear. I thought checks at the border threatened peace on the island of Ireland and broke the GFA...

@TerraOrBust

Gully Foyle #UKTrade

24 days

Oh god I am really loving every twist and turn of this story. This is so enjoyable to watch. I need to get my own popcorn maker.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Before I get attacked (again), I want to make clear I am not trying to argue that rising interest and mortgage rates will have zero effect on the UK property market and economy. I am simply trying to put the panic and hyperbole into perspective (again).

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

EU export surge drives UK car production. Look forward to reading about this in the FT and on the BBC tomorrow...

Motoring? Car industry defies Brexit warnings with EU export surge - CityAM

UK car production saw its third successive month of growth in April, as easing supply chain shortages and strong exports drove growth. Car production ramped up 9.9 per cent to 66,527, 5,973 more than...

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

Once again Portillo cuts through the waffle to the heart of the matter BBC funding model depends on impartiality. Linker forced their hand. But the response of his colleagues refusing to appear demonstrates that BBC is incapable of being impartial. The funding model must go.

@GBNEWS

GB News

1 year

'Lineker is being inconsiderate, this is really calling into question the survival of the licence fee. He is not an experienced politician, he's a footballer.' Michael Portillo argues that if the BBC give way to Gary Lineker they will no longer be able to claim impartiality.

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

4 months

A third of all voters declare themselves open to voting for a party led by Nigel Farage. The metropolitan progressive elite is so far removed from ordinary people that they don't have a clue about the anger and resentment that is building.

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Voters want a real revolutionary to stop the boats - and it's not Nigel Farage

There is a massive gap in the market for someone to create a movement or party that would detonate a metaphorical bomb in the system

www.telegraph.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

4 years

@alunprice667 @BurnsideNotTosh He said wrong answers only.

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 months

Just musing on the establishment's obsession with Brexit as the cause of all our economic ills. When faced with this chart of GDP per capita

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

5 years

1/Thread I have been asked to clarify how @HansMaessen oral evidence to Parliament proves once and for all that, to quote Hans Maessen himself, a hard border on the island of Ireland “is a fictitious problem”

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

4 years

@ProfKarolSikora It's an absolute disgrace the abuse you get for simply trying to help and advice people using the best of your knowledge. Just know that it is appreciated

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 months

@jburnmurdoch John can we stop with the hard right crap please

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BBC apologises for calling Reform ‘far-Right’

Leader Richard Tice says he is pleased corporation has apologised but calls claim a tactic to ‘smear’ the party

www.telegraph.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

Must Read As it stands, the ‘Windsor Framework’ is a staggering political & legal sleight of hand devised to facilitate the transfer of legislative control over crucial areas of UK economic policy to EU, through the mechanism of the NI Protocol.

The Windsor Framework – getting Brexit undone - Briefings For Britain

The rebranding of the Northern Ireland Protocol as the ‘Windsor Framework’ is perhaps one of the biggest political con tricks of the Brexit years.

www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 years

@KirstieMAllsopp Actually I do mind. What sort of society thinks its reasonable to expect children to take a 1 in 20k chance of heart inflammation to protect a double jabbed adult? Its our job to protect the young. Not ask them to risk their own health to protect us when we're already protected

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

4 months

The euro has been such a success...

@Valen10Francois

François Valentin

@Valen10Francois

4 months

You may not like it, but this is what peak economic performance looks like.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

In other words, the export data (which does not show any post brexit collapse) is not the full picture because we should expect supply chain reversions as a result of the increased trade barriers from the UK leaving the SM & CU.

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Wow! Instead of extra £154b borrowing in 23/4 CEBR suggests it will c60% less - £64b! And surplus in 25/26! UK debt to GDP would fall to mid 80% range rather than forecast rise. One of the biggest attacks against the budget - excessive borrowing - would be torn to shreds!

@CeeMacBee

Catherine McBride OBE

2 years

Cebr's initial estimate for government borrowing in 2023/24 was £154bn falling to £80bn in 2025/26. But adjusting for the overstatements, the projected level of borrowing comes down to £64bn in 2023/24 and govt is forecast to run a tiny surplus 2025/26.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 months

Excellent by @NJ_Timothy . I just wanted to highlight a few points from the article

@NJ_Timothy

Nick Timothy

3 months

Higher energy costs mean industrial production transfers to countries with little or no environmental standards. My column today is how we need to get real about the net zero target - and the myth of international free trade:

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

How does Ireland currently operate Customs for 3rd countries: “In 2016, 6% of import declarations were checked & less than 2% physically checked. The vast majority of these checks were carried out in approved warehouses & other premises with very small no at a port or airport.”

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

4 months

There is absolutely no evidence people are gaming the asylum system they say.

@ArchRose90

Chris Rose

4 months

Absolutely outrageous, a Sky News reporter revealed that the local vicars are “kept busy” with “around 20 of the men baptised just last weekend." Converting to Christianity is deemed a reason that it’s unsafe to return to some countries. These sickening loopholes must end!

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

Thank you @JamesDuddridge for reading the legal documentation, not believing the spin and PR & keeping to your manifesto commitment. I am sure that all your colleagues once they have taken the time to do the same, will reach the same conclusion.

@PolitlcsUK

Politics UK

1 year

🚨 | BREAKING: Sir James Duddridge becomes the *first* Tory MP to say he will vote AGAINST Rishi Sunak's new Brexit Deal - arguing the PM has "betrayed" Brexit [ @DominicPenna ]

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 years

@tnewtondunn But @tnewtondunn why would the UK need to? We all know that the EU would never allow a breach of international law so will prevent their own fishermen from breaking the law. Right?

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

There appears to be another concerted attempt at the moment to misrepresent data to "prove" Brexit has been an economic disaster. This is a good example of the genre. This time re auto production

@DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦

2 years

The UK car industry has clearly shrunk significantly since 2016, as would have been expected from uncertainty, new trade barriers not faced by competitors, and loss of investment.

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

4 years

Illustrates just how quickly supply chains can change...

@Jefferson_MFG

Jefferson

4 years

UPDATE: By the end of this year, 70% of the expected demand for PPE will be met by British manufacturers, reducing the reliance on overseas suppliers. Prior to the pandemic, just 1% of PPE was produced in the UK #UKmfg 🇬🇧

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 months

An academic hires 8 juniors to analyse the data on Policing for racial bias. They find no racial bias in Police shootings. He hires 8 more to check their work who confirm no bias. Ends up with armed guards & warnings not to publish or risk his career. 2016.

@TheFP

The Free Press

3 months

“We didn’t find any racial bias in police shootings.” Economist Roland Fryer tells @bariweiss at @uaustinorg about the 2016 paper on policing bias that led to his need for an “armed guard” for over a month and the academics who told him not to publish.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

I think this analysis is right. People dont regret voting to leave the EU. They regret the fact the Tories have not delivered the change they wanted as a result of leaving.

@GBNEWS

GB News

1 year

'There is a sense that Brexit isn't really delivering what people expected it to deliver.' Professor Matt Goodwin reveals that according to a GB News People's Poll, 49% say the UK was wrong to leave the EU vs 30% say the UK was right. @GoodwinMJ

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

9 months

The FT has not 'messed up'. The FT is simply pushing the same ideological anti brexit agenda it has followed to the letter since 2016

@SBarrettBar

Steven Barrett

9 months

There was a desperate and hysterical attempt to paint removing this retained EU law as 'dramatic' and 'damaging' It was always bunkum These were and are all pieces of unimportant secondary legislation - nothing dramatic was ever on the cards - the FT seems to have messed up 👇

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

17 days

On Friday I published the following thread responding to @EdConwaySky attack on @KemiBadenoch speech on UK’s trade performance post Brexit

@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

19 days

On Wednesday @KemiBadenoch made a speech to Parliament on the UK’s trade performance in which she stated the data: “Definitively disprove the claims of those who prophesied a catastrophic economic collapse when we left the EU to become a sovereign nation.”

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

4 years

Equity investors should get wiped out, bond holders take a significant haircut and new capital invested. Employees keep their jobs. That is how free markets work. Equity holders get the higher rewards because they take the extra risk.

@BBCNews

BBC News (UK)

4 years

Virgin Group boss Richard Branson writes open letter to employees warning Virgin Atlantic will collapse unless it receives government financial support during coronavirus outbreak

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 months

There is no doubt UK has serious & significant economic problems. It is also clear these very real issues predate Brexit. Continuing to blame Brexit for all economic ills is not just fallacious but removes attention and analysis from the real causes.

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Stop blaming Brexit for Britain’s economic ills - Briefings For Britain

Business analyst Derrick Berthelsen criticises the media obsession with Brexit as a cause of all economic ills. It is not only wrong, he says, it distracts us from our real problems

www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 months

Stop blaming Brexit for Britain’s economic ills It is not only wrong — it distracts us from our real problems

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Stop blaming Brexit for Britain’s economic ills | Derrick Berthelsen | The Critic Magazine

What explains the establishment’s obsession with Brexit as the cause of all the UK’s economic ills? Whether it is the BBC or the Financial Times, the Economist, CNN, the Guardian…

thecritic.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

One cannot help but get the impression that the EU & ROI is using the people of NI as pawns in a game intended to force all UK regulatory alignment. But the safeguard measure in Article 16 of the NIP provides the UK with the opportunity to act unilaterally to prevent that.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 years

@AllieRenison @ShonaMurray_ @Mij_Europe Nobody, and I mean nobody, believes it was an oversight...

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 months

Why the OBR is wrong about Brexit When you compare apples with pears and then bananas you might get a half decent fruit salad but you will definitely get terrible analysis. (apologies it is a long one)

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Why the OBR is wrong about Brexit | Derrick Berthelsen | The Critic Magazine

When you compare apples with pears and then bananas you might get a half decent fruit salad but you will definitely get terrible analysis. In a recent conversation, Jonathan Portes…

thecritic.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

Dear Tory MPs. You know that poll bounce Sunak promised you if you just hold your nose & swallow that brexit betrayal... PS. once the reality reaches the ground in NI, this will only get worse.

@TeamUnion_UK

𝗧𝗲𝗮𝗺U𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗻

1 year

@DCBMEP Polling is dire Sir Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 49% (+3) CON: 23% (-4) LDM: 10% (-1) GRN: 6% (=) RFM: 6% (=) SNP: 3% (-1) Via @YouGov , 21-22 Mar. Changes w/ 15-16 Mar

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

5 years

Exactly what we Brexiteers have been arguing all along. It is May's deal which breaks the GFA. Leaving on WTO terms and/or agreeing an FTA does not..

@TomMcTague

Tom McTague

5 years

Brussels, this is important. Fundamental. Lord Bew, Trimble's adviser for the Good Friday Agreement: "There is one gt problem with the backstop: it does not protect the GFA. People do not have democratic control. [It] is a top-down imposition on how NI matters will be handled."

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

6 months

UK manufacturing is significantly outperforming as a result of Brexit

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UK manufacturing is significantly outperforming as a result of Brexit | Derrick Berthelsen | The...

The doomsters are wrong about Brexit — again

thecritic.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

11 months

We are run by idiots

@notayesmansecon

Shaun Richards

@notayesmansecon

11 months

The North Sea Oil and Gas windfall tax has been an absolute disaster for Chancellor Hunt. First he deterred badly needed investment in energy. Now his taxes are fading away too.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

19 days

Kemi made that explicit when she later referred to the fact that “Exports are now 2% above 2018 when adjusted for inflation.” ie when she referred to export performance in volume & not value. So Ed is wrong to suggest Kemi was not both clear & correct about the date she quoted

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

15 days

This 👇 And before the anti Brexit trolls/'so called economic experts' pile in, I am aware UK is suffering the same as rest of Europe. That is because the whole European economic model is bust & UK has not used the freedoms afforded by Brexit to change.

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Stop blaming Brexit for Britain’s economic ills | Derrick Berthelsen | The Critic Magazine

What explains the establishment’s obsession with Brexit as the cause of all the UK’s economic ills? Whether it is the BBC or the Financial Times, the Economist, CNN, the Guardian…

thecritic.co.uk

@MichaelAArouet

Michael A. Arouet

@MichaelAArouet

15 days

Within a decade European Union lost about 120 Billion $ in annual foreign direct investment and the US gained about 90 Billion $ per year, but hey let’s regulate AI and introduce four days workweek. What needs to happen for European politicians to wake up?

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

19 days

As you can imagine, the response form the anti-brexit brigade which has spent the last 8 years trying hard to present Brexit as an economic disaster and an entirely irredeemable event was angry and vitriolic. For example this thread by @EdConwaySky

@EdConwaySky

Ed Conway

20 days

I hate to be pedantic (and no doubt this will mean I'll be labelled as one of those doomsters @KemiBadenoch is calling out here) but there's a few problems with the data the biz/trade sec is quoting here. When you correct them, the picture looks a little different... 🧵

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

6 months

Indeed. Italy manufacturing production -21%, France -13%, USA -7% and Germany -5% vs UK +6% since the GFC

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@TheCriticMag

The Critic

6 months

. @DerrickBerthel1 points out that of all the G7 countries, only the UK has registered any growth in manufacturing volumes at all since 2008

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Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

19 days

First (& this really is basic stuff) this isn’t a chart of trade volumes but trade values. And when Kemi stated that “the value of UK exports was £862 bn in the 12 months to February 2024” she was both correct & clearly referring to values (price paid) & not volumes (number sold)

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 years

But i thought there was no evidence that mass immigration kept wages low..

@labourleave

Labour Leave

3 years

Brexit drives up wages by ending free movement

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

I was asked to produce a quick thread on how good the OBR forecasts have been historically for context. Here is an article in which they admit their poor forecasting record (in the Guardian)

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OBR admits poor forecasting record

Office for Budget Responsibility predicted economic growth six times stronger than the latest official figures suggest

www.theguardian.com

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Update on my "Mortgages - some perspective" thread today. I keep being asked what about forecasts for higher interest rates in future? Why is this only happening in the UK? Is it the Government's fault as we keep being told by the media? Well..

@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

Mortgages – some perspective You may have seen a lot of hyperbole about the mini budget causing a spike in UK Government bond yields and the effect it will have on mortgages, property prices and the general economy. I wanted to try to put the issue into perspective.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

8 months

Welcome to all of our futures

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Switzerland will BAN electric cars from roads during power shortages

Plans drawn up in the event Switzerland is hit by blackouts this winter call for all electric cars to be banned from the roads except for 'essential journeys' to limit power consumption.

www.dailymail.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

1 year

The Financial times seems to have used every trick in the misinformation handbook to mislead its readers about UK trade since Brexit....

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What the FT didn’t tell you about UK exports and the G7 - Briefings For Britain

The Financial times seems to have used every trick in the misinformation handbook to mislead its readers about UK trade since Brexit. Catherine McBride explains how this was done and the truth about...

www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

3 years

Translation. Pro EU people in UK fear UK will diverge so fast from EU that rejoining will become impossible. Spoiler. On this, for once, they are correct.

@lisaocarroll

Lisa O'Carroll

3 years

Why Lord Frost’s announcement last week to get rid of EU laws is more than it seems. Legal practitioners fear laws will be fast tracked without proper scrutiny and it could be way to diverge very fast from EU law. Lots of Qs raised by ⁦ @pmdfoster ⁩

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

19 days

@KemiBadenoch went on to say that the data confirms that: “The strategy the public voted for on 23 June 2016 is delivering. Leaving the European Union was a vote of confidence in the project of the United Kingdom, and we are seeing results.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

29 days

It would appear senior Police leaders do know the law & are aware that they can apply restrictions on events. But are restrictions being applied equally? Months of weekly marches all over London with no restrictions, yet one St George's day celebration...

@metpoliceuk

Metropolitan Police

29 days

We have been in discussions with the organiser of the Richmond Terrace event over recent days. To prevent disorder and to minimise disruption, we have imposed a number of conditions under the Public Order Act. Anyone participating in the event must remain on Richmond Terrace

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

2 years

When the UK suggested that checks could be made away from the border that was described as unicorn thinking. However, the head of Ireland revenue confirms that this is exactly how Ireland Revenue largely operates today.

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@DerrickBerthel1

Derrick Berthelsen

@DerrickBerthel1

4 years

@AlStewartOBE @BBCBreaking Still think the BBC is salvageable?

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