The OBR Chief is wrong here. And what is more he should know this statement is wrong.
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As I outline in the article attached, the OBR itself does not make forecasts of the economic cost of brexit. Rather it relies on the average forecasts of other bodies to reach the 4% figure.
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It is notable that the OBR has run this process twice but chosen to use different forecasters each time whilst presenting the results as demonstrating a greater Brexit economic effect (rather than a function of the different forecasters chosen).
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As I also illustrate in the article, the average 4% figure breaks down as between 0.6-1.0% loss of economic output in the long term from the added trade friction of being outside the SM & CU.
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The remainder comes in part from forecasts of lower productivity, but mostly from lower expectations for immigration in the future than we experienced in the period 2000-2016.
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However, since those forecasts were made we have just had two years of much higher immigration than the forecasters assumed. Indeed last year saw the highest immigration number ever in UK history.
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Plus, in the recent budget the Government indicated to the OBR to increase its forecasts for annual immigration in the medium term by over 50%, as the Head of the OBR should also know as the OBR adjusted their figures accordingly.
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The OBR Chief must know the relative importance of lower immigration numbers in that 4% average economic cost of brexit figure.
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And he must also know that the higher than expected immigration in the past 2 yrs & forecasts for higher immigration in the next few years, would significantly reduce the forecast economic impact of brexit made by those independent forecasters.
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I guess the question is, if the head of the OBR does know all these things, why is he continuing to repeat a line he knows to be an untruth?
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@DerrickBerthel1
Since that forecast in 2018 we've also had the UK Global Tariff, the skills-based immigration system, the Global Talent Visa and a host of FTAs.
By suggesting that they collectively don't merit a revision of his forecasts he beclowns himself and his office.
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@Factsareafriend
I am afraid there can only really be two explanations. Either he is not very good at his job and doesn't know. Or he does know yet continues to push a narrative because he has an agenda.
Either way, as you say, he demeans himself and his (supposedly independent) office.
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@DerrickBerthel1
How do you know the OBR Chief is wrong on his forecast of Brexit damage to UK growth? Have you evidence of the future?
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@JPThrough1
I said he knows that the 4% forecast is wrong. Because he knows the importance of lower immigration in those forecasts. And he knows immigration has already been much higher than those forecasts & is also expected to be for years to come.
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@james8745
I think the public don't know who to believe. But the more they discover the so called independent experts are anything but, the less faith they have in the establishment.
We are already a long way down that road & the result is never good for said establishment.
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@DerrickBerthel1
This man is part of a policy making process and, therefore, should follow similar rules to politicians or perhaps civil servants.
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@DerrickBerthel1
Hi
can you answer a simple question
if brexit didn't cause any damage
Why did Conservative ministers and government seek to exploit coronavirus to mask the damage from brexit?
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@DerrickBerthel1
The OBR is not an independent think tank
@notayesmansecon
@UxbEconomist07
Head of OBR and two of their senior analysts are ex-Resolution Foundation, a left wing think tank in favour of higher taxes, including the introduction of a wealth tax
…and their financial forecasts are regularly way off the actual financial outcome
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