Delighted to say my new paper "Building a Mature UK Trade Policy" is finally published.
Answering the question, what should the UK do now the Free Trade Agreement agenda is running out of steam and given turbulent global politics.
"Highlights" follow...
Current tariff on soy sauce entering the UK from Japan - 0%. Tariff on soy sauce entering UK after UK-Japan trade deal - 0%.
Not a good look when you can't trust a government social media account to tell the truth.
The bakers used a lot of soya sauce in the first challenge on
#GBBO
, so it's a good thing it will be made cheaper thanks to our trade deal with Japan π―π΅
Quite obviously the BBC should not be providing a platform for those suspected of fraud to issue their defence. Absolutely no idea how this can be considered appropriate.
Somebody in the Met Police or government needs to have a darned good explanation of why it is ok to protest against a lockdown policy that saves lives, but not ok to protest in support of women's safety.
Perhaps the women who attended last week's vigil for a murdered young woman should have taken off their masks and pretended to be an anti-Lockdown protest if they didn't want to be violently broken up by the Met Police.
Current protest marching through London π
Your daily reminder that the government chose to raise trade barriers by a level unprecedented for a modern developed economy in the middle of pandemic induced supply chain strains, without any sense this might lead to problems.
The primary issue for the UK government this morning should be their competence. They imposed the largest single one day rise in trade barriers in modern history, and did not plan effectively, possibly not at all, for it.
Utterly disgusting tweet. Russophobia? That country invaded another and you expect love for that? You think the UK fighting against Hitler in 1940 was Germanophobia?
Utterly unfit to own a UK newspaper or be a member of the House of Lords.
The hilariously miscalculated closure of
@Nigel_Farage
βs account tells a wider story: one of corporate virtue signalling which, since last February, has weaponised Russophobia for the sake of moral posturing.
The week the UK most obviously entered the phase of post-Brexit decline? Removing climate commitments to suit a smaller trade partner, MPs asking government to turn round asylum seekers, falling out of the top ten German trade partners, a tax rise, roaming promises worthless...
This has been common knowledge among trade types for some time, about how Boris Johnson went into dinner with the Australian PM, and as he did with the EU, simply gave way on everything to the despair of officials. Kudos to
@g_lanktree
for sourcing...
My prediction of a few months ago that the UK would not in fact reopen substantially ahead of the rest of the EU despite our vaccine advantage has come to pass. Because the vaccine program was a rare island of calm efficiency in a sea of chaotic disorganisation.
Plenty of talk this morning about how UK sovereignty is what is stopping an EU deal, that the EU want to impinge on this.
Sorry, the argument is totally bogus. It is a combination of EU hatred and cakeism dressed up in respectable clothing. 1/ n
They really still think that you retain the benefits of a club even after leaving. That the club is vindictive if that doesn't happen. And that those who point out this is normal must be in the pay of the club.
Five years of learning nothing. And insulting those that thought.
Other countries have long since overtaken us on vaccines, performed more strongly economically since March 2020, and done so with a lower death rate. Ones that were inside the EU.
Boast of mediocrity and learn nothing, that's evidently the Johnson way.
We were the first nation in the world to administer a vaccine, and one of the fastest in Europe to roll it out.
This was because we made the big call to pursue our own vaccine procurement, outside of the EMA.
1/5
Right, the Ireland and Brexit thread. Why the backstop is not annexation, might be undemocratic but that could be negotiated by a mature UK Government, and is required because of history, identity and normal border procedures 1/
First full day in office for the new Biden team, and those looking at foreign policy are greeted by the UK setting off a needless diplomatic spat with the EU by repeating a move from the Trump playbook.
Hell of a first impression that is giving.
Waiting for Gray, waiting for the Northern Ireland protocol to be resolved, waiting for the Brexit benefits, waiting for levelling up, waiting for action on cost of living, waiting outside Dover or in passport queues, it's a good job we like waiting in this country.
Man who signs treaty to impose checks on food travelling within his country finds it extraordinary that there are checks on food travelling within his country.
Here we go again ...
The reason no one is "stopping Bratwurst going from Dortmund to DΓΌsseldorf" is because Merkel didn't split up her country by signing an international treaty with no intention of respecting it ...
I'm sorry but this is absolutely disingenuous. The UK government were told on day one after signing the Withdrawal Agreement what it meant, and refused to accept it for domestic political reasons. And treaties are for life not just an election win.
David Frost, Brexit minister, on withdrawal agreement:
βWe underestimated the effect of the protocol on goods movements to Northern Ireland, with some suppliers in GB simply not sending their products because of the time-consuming paperwork required.β
Increasingly reading that Europhiles fear Liz Truss as PM as she will stand up to the EU.
I know quite a lot of Europhiles, and they are rather more concerned that she will blow up the UK economy through a misplaced belief in her own negotiating genius.
Pretty straightforward that this government has a donations-for-access approach, whether for procurement contracts or discussions with Ministers.
When this happens in other countries we call it corruption.
Since there seems to be some confusion on the matter I think it is worth restating that the EU did not force Boris Johnson to sign the Northern Ireland Protocol in October 2019. Or to sign up to the operating principles for it in December 2020.
UK political debate is totally distorted by the refusal of the government and supporters to admit that Brexit could have any negative consequences whatsoever.
We need to talk about UK politics. More specifically we need to talk about the absence of opposition to a no-deal Brexit risking Scottish independence, Northern Irish peace, the end of the mass market car industry, more expensive food, and damaged relations with US and EU 1/n
There is a sense of disbelief about the new trade problems between Great Britain and the EU / Northern Ireland. Which we need to lose. This is the new normal. And we face a difficult period of adjustment - immediate paperwork needs, and to longer term uncompetitiveness.
Good things in the UK are all caused by Brexit. Bad things have nothing to do with Brexit. Unless the bad things become good things in which case that is Brexit. And if the goods things go bad they are no longer caused by Brexit.
Everyone clear?
I think the main question worth asking on the Australia trade deal is "if Australia had written it without any UK participation, would it have looked any different?".
Spend months trashing the French and EU, then plead for a special migrant return deal, offering nothing in return. A government and a Prime Minister without a clue about diplomacy or the importance of good neighbourhood relations. Want to learn, or to blame?
It was already self-evident before this leadership contest that the Conservative Party, in general, does not understand the EU, international relations, trade policy, trade wars, relative economic size, and a lot more besides. Not just what they say, they just don't get it.
Quite the statement. βThe feedback we get from investors is that they consider the UK uninvestable as long as there is such government chaosβ. Cannot emphasise enough how this government has such a limited understanding of business.
So confused, one minute our deals with the EU were the greatest thing since sliced bread and the next they were a dreadful imposition by a bullying EU, sometimes even both within a few minutes, so which one is it?
Who'd have thought, eh? "Britainβs largest packaging company will close its factory in Kent and continue to expand production in Europe, warning that a planned bonfire of EU laws risked plunging the UK into a deeper economic crisis"
Still waiting for the candidate for Prime Minister who will promise a GP appointment or ambulance to those in need, a police force responding to crimes large and small, maximum time to wait for a new passport, water companies not discharging sewage, and so on.
Real life stuff.
Ending the week on a high. Absolutely thrilled to be blocked here by the worst UK Prime Minister of all time, which goes well alongside being blacklisted by the trade department while she was in charge.
You cannot support / want to protect the Good Friday Agreement and at the same time leave the ECHR. But I'm sure all the Conservative leadership candidates are well aware of this...
The level of sheer fury in Ireland and across the EU at a UK government they believe is threatening peace in Northern Ireland out of ideology and ignorance, and is adopting a bad faith negotiating approach of emotional blackmail.
"Trade deals are not made to assert independence, they are to manage interdependence" - absolutely true, and actually a better description than the misleading 'free trade agreement'. Someone once suggested 'managed trade agreement' as more accurate.
This, by Spanish Foreign minister
@AranchaGlezLaya
, is absolutely superb. The clearest expression of the problem I've heard. The UK is trying to use a trade deal to do something it's not designed to do. This, fundamentally, is why negotiations have failed.
Well worth sharing.
Feeling the danger that Ukraine-fatigue creeps in while the invasion stabilises in horror. We saw this before in Sarajevo, and we need to resist and provide the continued attention.
The UK can't have a good relationship with Europe and a bad one with the EU. And it can't have a good one with either unless we come to terms with our relationship with Ireland. These are the things Brexit opened up you can't ultimately pretend away.
Do I really have to do another set of tweets tomorrow about the stupidity and futility of a government not entirely united and particularly untrusted threatening a trade war with our nearest large economy and a diplomatic incident with our self declared closest ally? Really?
Possibly the clearest chart I've yet seen on the Brexit impact on trade - and to be clear this is exactly what economic theory and observed reality said would happen if a country puts up trade barriers to neighbours.
Global trade hits record $7.7 trillion in first quarter of 2022
It is about 20% more relative to pre-pandemic levels. Here is export growth of countries who exported at least 50bln USD in 2019Q1
So, how is Brexit going? Not so well...
#Brexit
#trade
It is hard to think of a UK government failure in modern history as damaging as the complete inability of the Conservative government to handle the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Suez doesn't even come close. Government by denial and wishful thinking. And it continues.
To conclude, there is no current way to reconcile Northern Ireland remaining aligned with the UK, Ireland staying fully in the EU, pure Brexit, and no border checks. This isn't annexation, but reality. Ignoring such inconveniences is what Governments of failed states do 28/ end
To be a real Brexiter now evidently means to be a reality denier.
And to acknowledge reality is apparently to be both a remainer and an EU lover.
That's a cult, not a basis for running a country.
Looks like the majority Conservative plan, judging by the pitch of various candidates in the Sundays, is to bankrupt the country and try to create a really divisive culture war.
They really need a break from government, as does the country, if this is their best.
Bloomberg pulling no punches here. "Brexit is a proven failure".
The government and Brexit supporters will not of course agree. But their time to show otherwise is running out, as many are now admitting.
Words can't express the utter contempt I feel for Douglas Murray in suggesting the holocaust of six million and sparking a destructive war was "mucked up".
No serious UK publication should ever be publishing the views of this disgusting openly racist individual.
"I see no reason why every other country in the world should be prevented from feeling pride in itself because the Germans mucked up twice in a century."
-
@DouglasKMurray
at the
#NatConUK
gala dinner
With
@SimonHenig
, we're sad to announce the passing of our mother, Baroness Ruth Henig, Deputy Speaker, daughter of refugees, a life well lived as academic, author, football fan, walker, beer drinker, bridge player, grandmother, Chair in the security industry, music lover.
Always worth remembering on Brexit - the largest increase in trade barriers by any country in modern history. That must have an economic impact.
It was also a choice. The UK chose a pure definition of sovereignty over the economy.
That should be mentioned more in the media.
Dangerously disingenuous again - man who signed up to trade barriers between Great Britain and Northern Ireland then denied he had done so now promises to get rid of what he claimed never existed - and he doesn't mean it.
So hang on a minute, universities cannot ban any speakers because that would be woke and students need to hear from a wide range of voices, but government should ban critics because government doesn't need to hear a range of voices?
Hypocrites is one word. I have others.
UK civil servants have been ordered to trawl through the social media accounts of guest speakers at one government ministry, including going back up to five years to see if they have ever criticised government policy, as part of a new vetting process.
Am increasingly concerned by the extreme behaviour shown by UK MPs.
I have heard some are composing tweets based on rumours without having read the UK-EU deal.
Completely against role of MPs & severely impacting our reputation as well as hindering our exports
Am increasingly concerned by the extreme behaviour shown by EU customs agents.
I have heard about a gun being drawn on one driver for not having documentation for empty boxes in his van.
Completely against the UK-EU trade deal & is severely impacting our exports, including fish
Three years ago Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt sprayed around promises of how they would sort Northern Ireland and Brexit with no reference to what was actually negotiable given UK trade needs. Three years later, the Conservative Party has learnt nothing.
Sorry, there isn't going to be a transition period extension, not from this government. And they and supporters are playing a different game, entitled "The EU is to blame". It will be attractive to many. The cost to the business or country is not this government's concern.
Delusional. And no way to run a country. Far higher barriers to trade with the EU from Friday. And still subject to EU influence on our laws. To deny this is also to deny the ability to tackle the problems we will face.
Starting to get pretty angry with the Brexit enthusiasts who having made a right royal mess of their vision are now shrugging their shoulders and saying it has been ruined by others and the UK is inexorably declining.
Their ideology, other people's struggles.
Like those who pushed for a no-deal Brexit, what these MPs are really demanding is to suspend reality and have their own fantasy world where the UK does absolutely anything we want.
Trouble is no government can operate in that way.
So fed up of this nonsense.
NEW: Hearing dozens of Tory MPs are writing to PM today demanding that emergency Rwanda legislation is protected from human rights challenges. They want notwithstanding clauses; to dis-apply the HRA; & last min "pyjama injunctions" to be blocked 1/
Too soon to tell, but as at least some discussion turns towards the UK's abysmal growth performance, we have to consider that a Brexit 4% GDP hit turns out to be an underestimate.
No other country has put barriers up to trade so much in modern times, so it is all experimental.
Lavish praise of the UK government by its supporters for vaccinating the population and keeping the economy going does rather miss the point that every one of our competitors has managed the same. Or are we considered so feeble that keeping up is now to be treated as triumph?
Anyway, 27 days to the end of the transition period and the biggest one-day change in UK trading relations in history. 18 working days.
And we still don't have the details.
If you run a business do you look at the UK and say "that's a government that I can trust" ?
Honestly, this is pathetic behaviour by the PM. Can't cope with a meeting with another Prime Minister who said something he didn't like?
Is Sunak the weakest UK PM in modern history?
Would be an interesting move for a UK Foreign Secretary to declare the US and EU wrong, the views of Northern Ireland voters irrelevant, and trade conflict with our key partners a good thing. All because of an international treaty she voted for.
Not a good look.
EXC: Liz Truss will move to scrap most of the NI protocol in law next week
While not included in Queen's Speech, legislation unilaterally removing need for Irish Sea checks is written and ready
Ministers have been warned move will spark EU trade war
Forgive a bit of an evening rant but am finding the whole 'civil service was out of touch over Brexit and therefore needs reform / destruction / whatever' to be wrong on so many levels it needs to be called out... even if I know its just politics, but dangerous politics.
Just a Cabinet Minister calling a cross party group of MPs a witch hunt and egregious abuse of power.
Quite obviously such a tweet demonstrates her woefully unfit for public office.
If this witch hunt continues, it will be the most egregious abuse of power witnessed in Westminster. It will cast serious doubt not only on the reputation of individual MPs sitting on the committee, but on the processes of Parliament and democracy itself
Pound falls due to the Conservative leadership contest and in particular the economic incoherence of much of what Liz Truss has said, is the headline you won't be reading in the Telegraph, Mail, Express, or Sun.
.
@SecBlinken
on the EU and the United States: Together our economies represent about 45 percent of world GDP. When weβre acting in concert we can move others, motivate others, and actually deal effectively with the challenges that are before our people & people around the world.
This should be a humiliation for a Secretary of State of Trade, to be associated with such shoddy research attempting to deny economic reality. That's what happens when ideology is more important than actual businesses.
Anyone care to craft an even vaguely plausible and good reason for Sunak to stop the King attending climate talks? Climate change denier? Fear of how it looks in the red wall? Because from the outside it just looks inexplicable and probably rather petty.
A former Irish Ambassador retweeting a former French Ambassador, half in condemnation half in sorrow about the UK government. Once upon a time this would have mattered deeply to any UK government.
It seems nobody wants to say that the situation in Great Britain to Northern Ireland is a consequence of the choices made by the UK government - and that is only going to grow as a problem.
There seem to be UK MPs confused about the difference between a single market and any other trade relationship, so for clarity:
Single market - shared regulations, no checks or restrictions.
Other relations - separate regulations, checks and restrictions.
Hope that helps them.
"Under my leadership the United Kingdom will not pursue any relationship with Europe that relies on alignment with EU laws" tells us a lot, none of it good, about this PM. Because a strong leader who understood business wouldn't say it. Even before we get to Northern Ireland.
How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?
In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.
Detail ---> 1/
"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail" has gone from being an irritating statement trotted out on a training course to a description of the UK government's modus operandi. And as well as on covid restrictions we're seeing it in EU negotiations - deal or no-deal. And here's why... 1/
The oh so slow dawning realisation that this government dramatically raised trade barriers (in the middle of an existing economic shock) and this has consequences.
Trade deal or not, the Brexit dream is dying. Trade deal and we spent the coming years in a push-pull relationship with the EU over economic alignment. No-deal and we intensify the battles over the future of the UK.
It wasn't supposed to be like this.