Mujtaba Rahman @Mij_Europe Twitter profile

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

5 years

Have decided it's finally time to take the plunge and join the Twittersphere this year! #Europe2019 #Brexit

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@vikramchandra

@RameshS0007

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 months

. @radeksikorski on 🔥. The kind of diplomacy I can get behind. Everyone should watch this clip today

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Senior EU officials tell me the EU is considering offering qualified Russian 🇷🇺 citizens EU 🇪🇺 passports - to accelerate Russian economic brain drain This is just one of many innovative measures being considered to complement economic sanctions now in place 🇪🇺🇺🇦

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Both Truss and Sunak deny Brexit is responsible for the problems at Dover. Straight lie. No challenge. Miserable

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

👀 A senior EU source tells me: “Putin has now taken day-to day-control of the conflict and delegated the running of Russia to the Prime Minister”

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

EU side now very concerned about contagion risks UKG's fiscal actions pose to financial stability in the Eurozone Plenty of Euro area banks and insurance firms are exposed to UK gilts This is serious. EuropeanCommission is very worried. IMF is worried. White House is worried

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Events last week show the entire Brexit edifice now effectively collapsing under its own contradictions. Its political economy consequences - low taxes & deregulation - at last made explicit & rejected by markets & voters; the minoritarian nature of the project exposed

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Liz Truss: "I will not sign up to anything which sees goods moving within our own country being subject to checks." But @BorisJohnson did - when he opted for a hard Brexit

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

11 months

Incredible. Scholz as we've never seen him

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Senior EU official: “Can't go to bed. UK politics is better than @netflix right now”

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Hard to articulate just how far Germany's star in EU has fallen. In Bxl & EU capitals, Berlin is seen to be on wrong side of every important debate - weapons to Ukraine, more fiscal solidarity in Europe, energy market interventions etc. It's even affected bilateral Fr-Ger ties 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

1 year

UK in absurd position now where EU, US & much of G20 know its problems are largely due to Brexit But Tories can't acknowledge that & Labour doesn't want to, to avoid EU being issue at next election So the elephant in the room keeps growing (& still has some ways to go/grow)

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Senior French official on the situation with @trussliz in UK “It's the ideology of Brexit meeting its dead end” French Govt in watching mode. No feelings. Certainly no schadenfreude

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

I've long argued that the post-Brexit UK-EU relationship would be difficult, but even I'm surprised how far & fast it has sunk A senior EU official tells me: “Johnson is a crook. He's signed up to something he has no intention of implementing.“ Negative levels of trust

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Amazement among senior EU officials (& pro EU Tories) at amazing claim in @BorisJohnson letter to all Tory MPs: “As we promised, we resolved the long Brexit crisis and created a new friendly relationship with the EU.” Come as news to most in Brussels

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 months

Macron today produced maps of a poss Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv or Odessa which could oblige the west to act to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. In talks w French opposition leaders, Macron said there should be no more “red lines” on Fr involvement in the conflict 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

If Frost says ECJ is a deal breaker it's because Frost doesn't want a deal It's not that complicated

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Mood is awful. Despite nonsense from Truss et al, there's growing realisation full fiscal U-turn is needed. Many Tory MPs want to make @KwasiKwarteng scapegoat in hope it lets @trussliz reset. Others think only way to win back markets & prevent Starmer landslide is her head 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Senior EU official: “These guys have gambled the country once with Brexit and they are doing it again now.”

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Actually @iainmartin1 I'm a proud British Pakistani, worked for our Govt, represented our country's interests in Brussels, want what is best for my country

Iain Martin

@iainmartin1

2 years

Anti- British fanatic. Sad to see.

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

1 month

On Ukraine, @EmmanuelMacron has made a spectacular two-year journey from apparent dove to leading hawk. Why? French officials say the facts have changed and Macron has changed with them. Is that a full explanation? A VERY LONG historical thread... 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

French sources are unwilling to talk of splits in the western alliance against Putin. They talk, however, of a fundamental “difference of appreciation” between the approach of Paris and Berlin and that of the “anglo-saxons” and the Eastern Europeans 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Hearing from senior sources that France will significantly step up its military support for Ukraine ( @EmmanuelMacron told @ZelenskyyUa in their call on Saturday) 🇫🇷🇺🇦🇪🇺

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

Can anyone imagine Angela Merkel or @EmmanuelMacron behaving like David Cameron or @BorisJohnson have? Being accused of the things they are? All across the EU, I'm constantly asked the same question: “What happened to your country?“

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

A French plot to ruin Brits’ holidays? Hardly. Why should France want to discourage UK tourists? The long queues at Dover port today are the product of a) Brexit and b) bad luck. 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

President @EmmanuelMacron today offered a sweeping vision of a new European Political Community - an outer circle of European states, including Ukraine and the UK, which would be linked to the EU but not part of it 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Senior EU official: “Truss is making Erdogan look prudent. Completely crazy.”

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Former senior (& seasoned) G7 official tells me on UKG mess: “Never seen anything like it in a Developed Market. Worse than Trump.” Global Britain 🇬🇧

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

4 years

Senior EU official tells me: “It’s unimaginable what has happened this week in the country of the Magna Carta and foundation of the rule of law.” 😢

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Senior EU officials have found Frost's intervention this week surprisingly honest. He negotiated NIP to get Brexit done, stay in power. He now wants rid of it to win an election, stay in power Nothing to do with unionism, economics, Global Britain. Just Tories pursuit of power

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

President Emmanuel Macron warned the French people tonight that they were at “the beginning of a new epoch” in which “democracy is challenged before our eyes” and “war in Europe is no longer a question for the history books.” 1/6

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Senior EU official: “Without any doubt, this is the lowest moment in the UK & EU's post-Brexit relationship”

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

No words left

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

‼️The EU will soon adopt a “code of conduct“ for how 27 should interact with UK. Will force a level of transparency, co-ordination on EU capitals & their dealings with London Unprecedented for EU to do this with a 3rd country. Shows how little 🇪🇺trust there is with 🇬🇧 at moment

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

You've got to be fucking kidding me h/t @tconnellyRTE

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Lord Frost’s resignation has barely made the news in Germany & from what I can tell there's only very limited coverage in France. Highlights again how Europe has moved on from Brexit in a way the UK has not

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Sensational

King Charles chooses France for first state visit after bonding with Macron

It is understood the Foreign Office is keen to use the diplomatic power of the monarchy to build bridges with the country post-Brexit

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

1 year

The reputational damage Germany is suffering - in Ukraine, Europe & abroad - is immense & I suspect won't be undone, even when it ends up sending Leo's, or allows other countries to

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

This view (Krugman) is becoming mainstream: "What strikes me is contrast between Ger current reluctance to make moderate sacrifices, even in the face of horrific war crimes, & immense sacrifices Ger demanded of other countries during the EU debt crisis".

Opinion | How Germany Became Putin’s Enabler (Published 2022)

Economic moralizing apparently applies only to other countries.

www.nytimes.com

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Two things to note about President Macron’s grim-faced, four minute TV address to the nation just now. He was standing in front of the French, EU AND Ukrainian flags – the first time a French head of state has included a foreign flag in a national address 1/3

Emmanuel Macron

@EmmanuelMacron

2 years

Adresse aux Français.

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

7 months

😂 Musk clearly doesn't understand how the EU - as a regulator much less a political entity - works It's for him to demonstrate compliance with the DSA. Not the other way around

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

1 year

Martin Wolf, with some difficult home truths for UKG. Worth reading in full

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

10 months

“Reality is biting,” says a former cabinet minister. “We are on for a massive defeat. We aren’t talking margins of error in opinion polls any more. The public are tuning out now. They are psychologically exhausted by this government.” What did the Tories expect? 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

The political & policy reversal in Europe over SWIFT over last 24h is without precedent It suggest EU cd be willing to stomach significant economic consequences to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine Says something v imp about how 🇪🇺 is seeing & responding to events

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

The UK is going to invoke Article 16. They'll argue it's surgical - "it's only Articles 5 & 7" etc. But EU will (rightly) see it as nuclear I expect no intermediate step (tariffs). Just an immediate, emergency EU Council & political decision to *suspend* the UK-EU trade deal 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

7 months

Senior EU official: “VdL has committed an error of such a strategic nature this will cost her very badly. She has damaged our entire outreach over months in the global south on the Russia/Ukraine conflict. She is endangering citizens of Europe who are held hostage... ”

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

. @EmmanuelMacron warned Fr people last night to prepare for a miserable winter in which they must be ready to pay “the price of liberty”. At a WW2 commemoration in South of Fr he gave a stark “blood, sweat & tears” speech linking Ukraine war to energy shortages & rising prices 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

Senior EU official tells me: “We’re heading towards a very tumultuous period. Frost is not here to solve problems“

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

You know the ship is sinking when senior folks in Govt start approaching you for job opps

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

This is a great triumph for Emmanuel Macron, in all the circiumstances: a victory for Europe, a victory for democracy and above all a victory for France 1/2

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

What's odd about @trussliz remarks on Macron is that she's already won keys to No10. There's no need to further appease Tory members All she's doing is making her life as PM even more (!) difficult There is no prospect of EU goodwill without France on side. Literally - none

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

No tears over Frost on other side of Channel. One senior French official: “He was polite. The diplomatic training showed. But he regarded Brexit as a new Cold War, an ideological struggle, with London playing the part of the Kremlin. He always looked for problems not solutions.”

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

10 months

Johnson, Frost, Cummings et al had an 80-seat majority, delivering hardest form of Brexit possible, with a full-fat Irish Sea border & clean regulatory break from EU They've had every opp to demonstrate Brexit can work & wasn't doomed to failure They failed. They're accountable

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

So @trussliz is the latest (in a long line) of UKG ministers to lose the plot with EU. Having failed to charm away a border in Irish Sea (😂😭) she is now trying to bounce EU (& @10DowningStreet ) into unilaterally suspending Protocol to prize concessions from EU. It won't work 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

There is talk in Tory circles of MPs agreeing to a “unity candidate” so they could remove Truss as party leader in a vote of confidence. Unlikely @Conservatives will be able to unite around a single figure. But incredible this is in ether after only 37 days of Truss in power

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

1 year

Horrible. Global Britain. Just terrible “Two rejections said the children had failed to prove they had “parental consent” for the trip, despite travelling to visa interviews with their parents and signing an online parental consent form with the school.”

European school groups describe ‘Kafkaesque’ visa process for UK visits

Travel industry leaders urge government to make good on promise to reduce post-Brexit bureaucracy for school trips

www.ft.com

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

The EU's proposals for addressing the problems in NI are substantive & far reaching. They will effectively do away with all paperwork for goods destined for NI - instead of a border in Irish Sea, think of a “green” (NI-bound) & “red” (Single Market) lane 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

6 days

. @EmmanuelMacron warned today that the European Union and the European model of civilisation could “die” unless steps were taken in the next 5 years to create a European “power” which protected itself from Russian military aggression & Chinese & American protectionism. Thread 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

1 year

Lord Wolfson @BBCr4today IV absurd "In respect to immigration it's def not the Brexit I wanted" So he wants soft Brexit & EU rule taking? He still doesn't get it. There isn't a version of Brexit that "works". It is & always has been an exercise in damage limitation. Full stop

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

The spin and translation imposed on the French PM’s letter is misleading. The bulk of the letter - 98% to use a topical figure – is asking Brussels to ensure that the UK respects its post Brexit deal 1/

Alex Wickham

@alexwickham

3 years

NEW: Huge escalation of French fishing row tonight Extraordinary letter from French PM Jean Castex to European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen obtained by POLITICO France tells Brussels it must demonstrate that Britain has been damaged by leaving the EU

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

What a cover

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Seems you don't need to leave the EU to control your borders after all

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

1 year

. @RishiSunak deal v imp as it completely invalidates absurd hypothesis of Frost, Cummings et al that only way you “win” in negotiations with EU is with aggression, threats, intransigence, a hardline stance Seems being reasonable & constructive is what actually delivers results

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

An international investor with 25yrs of experience in developed and emerging markets just sent me a text on the UK: “Absolute shitshow”

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

I think Frost is seriously underpricing strength of US response & strength of EU retaliation if UKG plays fast & loose with Sefkovich package - & Ireland's place in SM, peace process & GFA as a result

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

I've a simpler explanation Maybe Brexit was just a shit idea? Like many of us predicted & knew it would be

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Turns out free movement wasn't such a bad thing after all

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

As one Cabinet minister says privately, the attitude of @BorisJohnson to everything - Protocol, AUKUS, COP26 etc is: “It will be alright on the night.” Until it isn't

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

For those of us that cut our teeth through Greek debt crisis, it was obvious more market pressure was likely, would be relentless & that this is not a fight Truss & Kwarteng could ever hope to win. See no way back for Govt now given economic and political mess they've created 2/2

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

7 months

‼️‼️‼️ Exit polls in Poland point to a clear majority for the opposition. Based on these projections, this is the end of PiS rule Liberal opposition - 248 seats PiS - 200 seats Konfederacja - 12 seats

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

4 years

Folks on twitter know I'm scrupulously objective & analytical about the Brexit views I put up. But on this occasion, I'll break with precedent: I believe that UK would be better/stronger in EU & EU would be better/stronger with UK in. We will both lose tremendously tonight 😢

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Senior 🇫🇷 official “If 🇬🇧 was still in EU, e/thing we wd have done wd have been co-ordinated with 🇬🇧 first, then 🇩🇪. Positive this is how we wd have done it. 🇬🇧 wd have been totally in the lead in EU. Now UK is totally irrelevant to EU disc. Are they influential in US? Who knows”

Gavin Barwell

@GavinBarwell

2 years

One of the lessons is that the UK and the EU face a common threat and that the Brexit deal should have included arrangements to work together on foreign and defence policy. Remind me who blocked that???

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

So much for EU engaging in “vaccine nationalism“ h/t @GitaGopinath

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

. @EmmanuelMacron has been selected for the first state visit of Biden's presidency. King Charles III has decided that his first state visit will be to Paris. Macron has big & growing domestic problems - but he has established himself as an influential statesman in difficult times

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Senior EU official: “Good riddance” No love lost

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

The problem is that, by angering the Eastern and northern Europeans, Macron risks ruining his own argument on strategic sovereignty ENDS

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

In December last year, @EmmanuelMacron said in private that he was “distressed to see a great country led by a clown”. His comment provoked the usual synthetic fury in the UK media. It’s now the opinion of most Tory MPs. Will the Daily Mail apologise to Macron? Thought not 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

President @EmmanuelMacron today called for an EU tax on the super-profits of energy companies to provide funds to pay for EU action to ease the energy crisis this winter. He said he had the support of German Chancellor Olaf Sholz and expected proposals from Brussels shortly 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

Many in EU have written to me saying they're impressed by @Keir_Starmer “shrewd“ move If there is a route back into EU, it starts with Labour winning power. Which means playing long game - & keeping zip for now

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

🇪🇺 has disconnect Russia from SWIFT

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

10 months

In December, I'm confident the EU will open - immediately or imminently - accession negotiations with Ukraine. Because EU leaders have understood that admitting Ukraine into the EU will be Europe's single biggest geopolitical contribution to the war Thread 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Hearing Truss utterly failed to rally Tory MPs at the 1922 tonight. It's usually a venue where, however bad things are, the leader gets a bit of a boost. Not Truss and not tonight. Wondering how many letters have gone in

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

If HMG goes big/nuclear on Article 16, the EU is preparing the ground to do so too. A big UKG response will be met with an even bigger, more forceful, EU one This is the miscalculation I fear Johnson & Frost are about to make

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

This view on Mordaunt is widely shared in Brussels - with one important qualification. One senior EU official tells me she "..was even less qualified than Frost"

Talk

@TalkTV

2 years

Ex Cabinet minister Lord Frost has "grave reservations" about Penny Mordaunt becoming the next PM. "I am surprised at where she is in this leadership race. She was my deputy. She wasn't fully accountable or visible. I had to ask the PM to move her on" @JuliaHB1 | @DavidGHFrost

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@Mij_Europe

3 years

Marine Le Pen @MLP_officiel has won NO regions in final round of regional elections today in France

Résultats des élections régionales et départementales : revivez la soirée électorale du second tour

Les présidents de région sortants ont été les grands vainqueurs du scrutin. Celui-ci a été marqué de nouveau par une très forte abstention.

www.francetvinfo.fr

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Understand that even some Brexiteers are furious with @trussliz - they believe that today she's gone too far

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Watch this

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

. @trussliz and @KwasiKwarteng promised Singapore on Thames and instead delivered Athens circa 2009

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

🇪🇺 response to 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 is unlike its response to any other crisis I've worked on (many): Greece, Ukraine 1.0, Refugees, Brexit, Covid Never let it be said again that EU's response is "bureaucratic", "incremental" & "reactive". Time to revisit our analytical assumptions

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Le Pen needed a knock-out. Macron won on points. Last night’s French presidential election debate was far from the 2017 walkover but Macron, harrying and interrupting, threw the far right leader off her stride. An Elabe poll today made him the victor by 59%-39% 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Europe only featured twice in 1h leadership debate - both times as lies Truss getting away with implying she’s sorted Protocol with NIP Bill. Both lying about Brexit & Dover Europe basically stuff of pure fantasy in British politics now. Totally unhinged from reality

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 months

The theory: Brexit was going to boost the city, allowing London to rival NY etc once all EU's unnecessary bureaucracy was removed The reality: There are 79% fewer banking jobs in London since Brexit When will Johnson, Frost, Cummings etc be held accountable? h/t @edwinhayward

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

5 years

Just to complicate things... Some fresh intelligence from chats today. Think there's going to be a really big push on 19 Oct by Remain alliance/cross party MPs to make any @BorisJohnson deal subject to a confirmatory ref. Extension needed would then be 6 months. More next week

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

10 months

The appointment of a 34y old far-right, Putin apologist as editor of France’s only stand-alone national Sunday newspaper, meant that the paper failed to appear today for only the 2nd time in its 74 year history 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

Worth watching @Ed_Miliband take @BorisJohnson to task

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

What a sorry sight to see two great countries, or at least their leaders, fighting like school-kids only two days after the calamity in the Channel in which at least 27 refugees died. Both Johnson & Macron merit some of the blame. But this is mostly down to Johnson 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 months

You couldn't make this stuff up

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

We may be at a turning point in UK/EU relations. Not because of supposed progress on NI Protocol (there isn't much) but creation of the “European Political Community” - whose most important achievement may be to reintroduce post-Brexit UK back to idea of European co-operation 1/

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

5 years

Senior EU/Brexit official to me in light of Bercow's intervention: "The House of Commons has better script writers than House of Cards." #Brexit

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

2 years

I can't find a single senior official in Bxl or any EU capital who thinks EU, while open to negotiations & solutions, is for moving on core issues of principle on Protocol. Even less likely if Truss wins, is beholden to ERG & pushes her NIP Bill Fear big UK/EU conflict is coming

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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

3 years

In other words, Castex is saying that Britain imposed this pain on itself. It cannot be allowed to lessen it by reneging on legal commitments ENDS

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