Jazi Zilber Profile
Jazi Zilber

@yzilber

964
Followers
1,175
Following
177
Media
37,428
Statuses

Rationality, bridge (game), Ultimate Frisbee, science. Nuance, evidence, agency problems

Joined November 2009
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
10 months
@GothamChess dynamically, every game will reduce your elo and increase his, reducing the next game gain ever so slightly
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
2 years
@RMac18 @AnnMLipton the most despicable thing from Musk. inexcusable. Musk shows up in Thailand with his super duper submarine contraption supposed to get into the cave and get the kids out. a diver involved in the rescue tells Musk to stick his submarine "you know where" Musk: "you pedophile"
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
6 months
@MWStory @GarettJones taboo against admitting how ridiculously negligible most climate actions are
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@monitoringbias theory: where murder is part of criminal systems, men will be central. where crime is rare, them is some random craziness, family issues etc, so women not spared. or are weapons a factor?
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil it's an old dilemma but! you can disassemble and potentially sell some parts. say recovering 1% or whatever keep it. sell it to drug lords who don't care. etc
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
10 months
@GothamChess surge pricing = more drivers and only those that need the drive most user the service. everyone wins. no surge pricing = less drivers + everyone either waits 45 minutes or cannot get a ride at all
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
6 months
@BillAckman @ByKLong 1. Wikipedia historical versions are 99.9% available online 2. Wikipedia allows fair use copy of its material. there is no copyright problem. but they might want attribution
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
11 months
@RichardHanania his Twitter TL is an example of an activist - not a journalist - focused on causing personal damage. very transparent
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
11 months
@jmhorp current business class seats are much nicer
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
10 months
@selentelechia @ahitposter obviously not 4 months old
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
5 months
@robkhenderson as @RichardHanania noted, most US wars were wars of choice of relatively lower importance for the US survival. to a large degree, the US didn't care that much about most it's recent wars. as ridiculously bizarre as it sounds!
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
8 months
@nntaleb 80% was only early on. doctors didn't know how to calibrate ventilators for COVID unique lung situation. it got much better later
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
10 months
@nick___1998 @GothamChess I'm not expert, but I guess the published ratings are one in awhile, while the actual ratings do change after every game. unless they don't change ratings dynamically mid tournament? sounds strange
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
9 months
@sebjenseb @xruiztru the Turks massacared millions of Armenians
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
11 months
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
8 months
@nntaleb intentional massacare Vs collateral damage that Israel tried avoiding w great efforts. an interesting question (conspiracy or believable?) is whether Hamas maneuvered to get those deaths to bolster it's international support? Hamas definitely told civilians to avoid evacuating
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
9 months
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
4 months
@RichardHanania Apple banned Spotify from informing customers about the option. it's not "Apple should advertise" rather "Apple shouldn't block apps from showing outside payment options" Apple enforcing their app taxes is robbery for me. altho some economists justify it
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
9 months
@datepsych @bryan_caplan @Aleaiactaest23 the perceived risk/negativity of incorrectly approaching an uninterested woman went up dramatically. used to be "unpleasant" at most. now it's "bad guy" "harassment" or worse
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@ishaycoen @mmagadli הערבים רוצים מאד להתקדם כלכלית. הם העניים הקלאסיים. החרדים נלחמים בשיניים כדי שלא יעבדו, ילמדו ליבה וכו'. לכן לא פייר שהחרדים צורכים זכויות סוציאליות בלי לשלם מסים
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
8 months
@nntaleb this Gaza offensive isn't strictly revenge. it's about eliminating Hamas. a central barrier against doing it was the world's reaction. so it's a temporary opportunity to do it with reduced opprobrium.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
10 months
@hamandcheese @ATabarrok The Statue of Liberty is extremely fragile and refurbishing it will be an enormous technical challenge. I've read about it's maintenance and it's harrowing. with enough money etc. of course
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
4 months
@xGPhilosophy 0.2425 1 in 100 years + 1 in 400 years exceptions
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
5 years
@duncanrobinson @alexmassie Rational actor. Understands complexity etc. Knows to smooth things over - the positive kind - not by delusional lies He's normal here in the utilitarian sense. He speaks sense and feels the only adult in the room
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
7 years
@cspan @AlbertoNardelli @POTUS @niinisto She said "there are a lot of blond women in Finland"
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
3 years
@jijijibli @paulg Subjective interpretation. It's a live riot, they pull weapons and watch what's going on over there. Can't assume intention without clear videos rather than biased (and potentially cut conveniently) footage
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
2 months
@Scholars_Stage a US academic living abroad told me in 2003: "years ago we would buy about 50 books ever year in our trip to the US and read them over the year. then came TV and we stopped reading" it still stays with me
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
8 months
@RuxandraTeslo why pay rent? it's a senseless money sink, unless issues + mom's cookies
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
12 days
@visakanv I used to discuss academic material with academics. and it was someone amazing to find myself the only one who's actually read the papers and footnotes. sometime with multiple academics involved
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@jonatanpallesen @brianluidog 1. carry on competes in limited overhead space. 2. limiting carry ons, pushes clients to pay for check-in luggage
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
6 months
@Austen also, there is no water shortage. desalination = unlimited water for a sensible price only if you give free water to waste, you have shortage
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
9 months
@robkhenderson those are the 3 misconceptions about group differences. 1. exaggerate from average differences. 2. confuse tails with median 3. confuse motivation and ability. most human gender differences are arguably in motivation
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
11 months
@DanAmira people will open 18 sisters restaurants just to troll you
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
11 months
@NateSilver538 @lxeagle17 the economic structure of MLS. closed League - no promotion/relegation pyramid/grassroot. no free market in salaries/transfers
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
5 years
@fairplaywomen Yes. I'm (male) not a risk. I create distance in cases I suspect a female feels a hint of a threat. Women can feel threatened without the present male being an actual threat. Males ought to respect this (and trans activists too)
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
3 years
@clairlemon It shows an average RR 0.37 which actually shows benefit. CI is 0.12 - 1.13. so 1 is within the confidence interval. Meaning the data isn't < 0.05 p-value to be considered proof. It's "lack of conclusive evidence" rather than "it isn't working"
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
24 days
@fentasyl Canada elections later this year current polls give the conservatives a majority with no coalition needed. mind you, conservatives ruled Canada for 8 years before Trudeau
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
7 months
@The_Eli_Beee @Noahpinion existential fear of Russia
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@chaimlevinson לכן אין אישורי מסירה
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@fentasyl the criminal just protected his tweets lol
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
3 months
@cremieuxrecueil the final line was לא בשמיים היא Lo bashamayim hi the Torah isn't in heaven, but here it earth given to us human to determine. it goes on (somewhere) to say "when God gave the Torah, he basically moved the decision authority to the humans on earth
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
2 months
@aightwhatever2 @datepsych "shallow and uninformative" is how propagandists call the solid and very well designed twin studies the only "problem" of the twin studies is that they don't give the results expected by the critics.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
3 months
@kadiagoba @GarettJones @HispanicCaucus illogical. if one thinks a judge appointed by Biden is superior to gambling on whoever wins next election/Sonia life span, then she should retire. and RBG indeed created the current SC by refusing to retire. 1+1 unless one is against strategic retirement
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@bswud @nicholaraihani @HermanPontzer My hunch is that the Hazda burn less calories at rest. their exercise energy spend is likely much lower that arguements laborers + their health likely much better
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
7 months
@JesseTayRiver lots of complexities: transaction costs / friction. appropriate expertise varies etc. trust is an issue. psychologically, people hate paying $300 to fix a $1,000 system even when rational
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
9 months
@yaelbt @FruitfulLoins the WhatsApp screens were doing the rounds on Saturday
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
7 months
@evanhill @paulg @RubyMellen @arturgalocha @juledurg how many of the "children" are 13-18 Hamas male soldiers? how many were used intentionally as human shields? you guys help Hamas because he uses human shields. good intentions, horrible incentives created.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
2 years
@eleanordotcomm showing heart in the screen is basically finding the ASCII combination that looks like a heart. and doing line by line "write on the screen string of letters 'xxxxx'" in C syntax. this?
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
10 months
@8chabard I think it's a statistical artifact. a bad man can enjoy and harass hundred women. the other 9 nicely behaved men aren't noticeable. so women will honestly think men are horrific, due to the minority.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@ESYudkowsky 1. dropping out is negative signal. 2. degree also signals: Conscientiousness. conformism. ability to do boring tasks. lack of mental illnesses & breakdowns that would ruin the degree process
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
7 days
@datepsych online ≠ dating apps
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
8 months
@RichardHanania Arab countries refused to settle Palestinians for 75 years. why would they accept them now? in 1979 piece with Egypt, Israel offered to return Gaza to Egypt, like before 1967. Egypt told Israel to keep Gaza and suffer itself
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
7 years
@Wrecksdart @Hawkstrat @topgirlcoder @karaswisher @Recode he never said so. You haven't read his text.....
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
6 months
@ManagingBarca hard to judge how much of this is his responsibility: no budget. scrap up a squad. very good. but poor people options. (joaos great. but only bought due to price.) injuries. form lost (lewa, Balde). what % is under Xavi control? weak squad + injuries = hard to impose strategy
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
3 years
@chrischirp @jonworth "throwing everything at the vaccine" "Can enter nightclub without a vaccine passport" Those are logically incompatible. If you wish to have everyone vaccinated, you need to limit style activities to vaccinated only
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
5 years
@nntaleb Gawker were saints Vs Nat Etq. Nate Enq are mafia Gawker were just crude thugs misbehaving
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
6 months
mass prisoner release triggers crime waves. multiple natural experiment data
@cremieuxrecueil
Crémieux
9 months
Have you ever wondered why America has such a high incarceration rate? If you weren't even aware of that fact, consider this graph from Prison Policy: To understand why America is like this, consider that, when Stalin died, Beria released more than a million non-political
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@ManagingBarca 2017 Neymar money spend. bought Haaland + mbappe + midfielder of average renown 2015 election. no Barthomeo
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@ThomasHoufek @hurricanerikok @gnosklis @emre_mayo @RichardHanania lots of fancy ways of saying "I'll let criminals roam free" of course, nobody says this explicitly. even mafia lawyers are always "for fair trial, and pursuing the full truth honestly"
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
8 months
trying to make everything consistent might backfire. forcing you into stupid ways of reconciliations them + more interest dependency reduces the safety of independent routes
@krishnanrohit
rohit
8 months
You are under no obligation to ensure the portfolio of opinions you hold are perfectly internally consistent
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
5 years
@Reaproy He must be searched on arrival for cash > $20,000 as he is certain to bring bribe money. Any Thai official talking to him should be investigated for bribe taking
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
2 years
@TomSneddon14 @PhillipsPOBrien the Ukrainians have to. because Ukraine faces currently 4 challenges: 1. defeat Donbas attack 2. retake territory 3. stop Russian air/missiles attack inside Ukraine. 4. stop the sea blockage. I guess making Russia proper uncomfortable helps here
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
5 months
@nntaleb @DavidM_Friedman he's a setller type. he helped Netanyahu build settlements appraiser Trump wishes!
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
9 days
@BronskiJoseph do we have the source? Eurostat tweeted that it's a fake graph not sure who'll to trust here
@EU_Eurostat
EU_Eurostat
3 years
@TheBigDataStats This is fake. Firstly, we've never asked this question. Secondly, if you follow the link to our database you arrive at a table of "Harmonised unemployment rate by sex - age group 15-24"...
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
2 years
@photochess it has also nothing to do with condemning tits showing
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
7 months
@StefanFSchubert funny that OPEC keeps cutting supply. kinda pushes US production up
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
3 years
@paulg give him the double language subtitles netflix Chrome extension I learned some with it
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
2 months
@MuntherIsaac @nntaleb according to Gershon Bashkin (in a podcast), those cases usually contain evidence that can't be exposed in regular court as it will expose intelligence. they do a secret mini trial showing the evidence to a judge one sided.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
7 years
@ianbremmer adjusted for population size? otherwise, meaningless. Adjusting for internet usage etc. also needed
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@cremieuxrecueil this was tried with textiles ~140 years ago by the Brits. shipping was cheap enough and labor costs <10% they found that the efficiency deficit of India workers then was high enough to make it useless
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
2 years
@HoggetsHams @KirkegaardEmil he stopped interacting once Steve have him all the evidence he asked for lol
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
2 years
@MarlowNYC @TaylorLorenz note she's a notorious stalker/doxxer, and she's doing a story about doxxing Musk, which probably opens to punish more private info about him
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
4 months
@Rainmaker1973 not 100% the 4096 will have some overlap usually. so a little less
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
7 months
@TheZvi fallout seems to have forced their hand. they retreat because they have been forced to via multiple channels. shareholders ejecting them, company crashing, Sam creating a stronger be company. etc etc. holding firm might be futile
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
6 months
@TomChivers @thetimes there should be legislation blocking this
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
9 days
@anushcache LOVE this. and yeah. standing up for fairness is costly.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
4 years
@eddy_sarah legally one should be able to cancel and are that the timing was fraudulent. I doubt they can enforce payments in this case
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@EPoe187 I cannot forget a convo with a female graduate student I had in 2010. "academy is so misogynistic" she said and starts detailing run of the mill crap every academic eats - papers rejected, annoying reviewers and similar trifles. she really expected it to be easy, or its misogyny
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
9 months
@robinhanson 1. Israeli government subsidies them. 2. early age brainwashing of girls that their only life goal is having children. 3. very early marriage ~20. girls not open to wide world. 4. very structured closed community. leaving, or "choosing" otherwise is nearly unimaginable.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
7 months
Hamas soldiers wearing civilian clothes. because Israel tries to avoid shooting civilians
@MarioNawfal
Mario Nawfal
7 months
🇵🇸🇮🇱 Soldiers wearing civilian clothing to deceive the enemy IS A WAR CRIME.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@MattyBoySwag143 @peterboghossian @NPR the sources are deeper: 1. tradeoffs denial/blindness 2. not believing in the value of reality feedback/honesty as being critical. "We can reconstruct/design everything". anti woke discourse treats the symptoms rather than the underlying thinking distortions
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
8 months
@billyhumblebrag amazingly, the whole discussion the is about why and how the technique should've been fine etc. no moaning about the firing at all!
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
6 months
every tweet of @robkhenderson is worth retweeting. follow him, and into the notification list of you use it. don't make me sycophantically retweet him
@robkhenderson
Rob Henderson
6 months
Bruce Lee had a cocaine habit, cheated on his wife, and was found dead in his mistress's hotel room. So often if you scratch the surface any figure from the late 60s, you find this pattern. Then people rewrite history to conceal the debauchery of the era.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
10 months
@jonatanpallesen the whole thing should be lavishly funded. the first 0.1% of total research funding going towards fraud detection will yield a bit multiplier of its costs.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@JoshBreiner כל הכבוד שהשתתפת בפנאל חוצה מחנות. זה לא מובן מאליו, ולעתים מעצבן. אבל נורא חשוב
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
11 months
@fentasyl wondering how much did this Dead weight loss contribute to the slowdown of growth after 1971
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@fentasyl @WallStreetSilv I know a millionaire in Belgium (?) who asked his bank for 22,000 euros in cash. they gave him a hard time, demanding explanations and documents. he got angry and tried it's my money and I want my cash. wtf is your business how I spend it. they gave him the cash, and asked him
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
10 months
@Scientific_Bird "Everest regression" @GarettJones "controlling for height, the top of the Everest has balmy temperature and average oxygen/air pressure"
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
5 years
@ConceptualJames Like the book. Living as a man for one year. The woman found out that men are way nastier to fellow men. Only fellow men take it as a given rather than complain. Women aren't used to it, hence the shock. This is honest lack of knowledge about the nastiness of men-men attacks
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
5 years
@AngelaDSaini How do you treat honest data whose results are considered racist by activists?
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
9 months
@jayvanbavel society is the biggest victim by weakening the knowledge base
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
3 years
@GarettJones Also avoiding wasting doses. Starting 7 PM, everyone can line up in the vaccination centers. And if no old people show up, you get the vaccine. My friend waited for two hours and got her dose.
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
8 months
@cremieuxrecueil similar to penalty kick massive order effects. whenever possible, random placement is the only fair way
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
5 years
@TransActualUK Trans women win beyond their share in the population. That's not fair
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
9 months
@nathancofnas @BayesianNuance @LHSummers Netanyahu is widely blamed in much of Israel too. nothing anti Israel to say Netanyahu is a horrible leader, self focused and legitimising Jewish extremists (his minister of internal security had a photo of a mass murderer on his living room wall for 20 years!)
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@StefanFSchubert @mattyglesias I think Seinfeld said this scene is the most brilliantly ridiculous of them all
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
11 months
@_Sohrab_ @thegallowboob yes, the balance of effects differs between cultures
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@yzilber
Jazi Zilber
1 year
@cremieuxrecueil likely explains some of their low crime. system designed to guarantee that criminals get penalised. scared criminals. US Miranda rights etc etc = criminals can count of low odds to get imprisoned. amazingly, until RICO anti Mafia law, mafia bosses were free while everyone
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