It still amazes me that academic fields, connected by co-citation, are arranged in a ring. Is there a missing "dark field" in the middle that we will find someday to connect it all together well?
"Englishman William Lee, who invented an early mechanized knitter that would allow people to make clothes in a fraction of the normal time. In 1589, he finally secured an audience with Queen Elizabeth I with the hopes of being issued a royal patent. Sadly, his hopes were…
I see a coordinated effort by a big elite coalition to crush Twitter now due to its current leader defying its stated wishes. If this succeeds, many other orgs will learn big lesson to fall in line. Such threats have often been made before, but rarely defied & thus carried out.
"the more than 140,000 Americans who earn more than $1.58 million per year. … typical rich American is … the owner of a 'regional business,' such as an 'auto dealer' or a 'beverage distributor.'”
More people should, as they retire, publish a tell-all on the career world they saw. Describe concretely & in detail what they saw & how things seem to work there. Where the bodies are buried. With a stack of such things, I could learn so much about how the world really works.
“I am now completely invisible,” Porizkova explains. “I walk into a party, I try to flirt with guys and they just walk away from me to pursue someone 20 years younger. I’m very single, I’m dressed up, I’ve made an effort – nothing”
GPT3: 175b params for $4.6M. GPT4: 100t params for $2.6B. This trend line can't go up much further. After that we'll have to wait for computing cost to fall.
Video Game Industry: $221 Billion
Movie Industry: $77 Billion
Music Industry: $26.2 Billion
You could combine the revenue of the movie industry and the music industry, double it, and you'd still be shy of the gaming industry
Yeah, we play video games
I am 63 years old, & the thing I'd most like younger folks to get about the past is: we almost never rudely & meanly insulted each other in public. Doing so directly in private was even rare. We mainly insulted folks behind their backs. This makes a big difference.
"in the 20th century, people [said] … this was racist propaganda on the part of the Greeks & Romans … & that Carthage should be saved from this terrible slander. 'What we are saying now is that the … evidence for child sacrifice is overwhelming"
So has anyone seen ANY published cost-benefit analysis of life-years saved vs. economic disruption for
#COVID19
lockdown policies? Isn't it weird that no one has bothered with such a thing?
On Twitter, as elsewhere, people are quite eager to express their political opinions re what they would do if they were king or God. But while politics is largely the art of compromise, few are willing to express opinions on what political compromises they'd be willing to make.
We must IMMEDIATELY begin desperate mass program to train people who can treat
#COVID19
patients who need an ICU, but using less than full ICU tools & resources. We must accept: resulting skills WILL be less than needed to satisfy current professional licensing standards.
This is sad and crazy stupid. They don't have a less-biased alternative on offer. They think they do in their own intuitive judgment, but they are very wrong.
The end of an era:
@UofCalifornia
permanently ends standardized tests for admission, a half century after it adopted the SAT and propelled it into widespread national use. No alternative exam exists that wouldn't create biased results, UC says.
The main reason our world is better than past worlds is our better institutions, not a better tendency toward moral behavior regardless of institution. So pushing for better institutions is better way to help future than pushing for better moral behavior.
Billionaires have always competed. Best is when they compete to make new innovative ventures. But compared to invisible-to-the-rest-of-us yachts, mansions, exclusive parties, etc., I prefer they compete on big visible projects we can all watch. So rocket-compete is pretty good.
"unattractive people received 120–305 % longer sentences than attractive people. As a comparison, another study found that black people received 6–20 % longer sentences than white people."
Amazingly oblivious quote: “The genocide in Rwanda is a far-reaching tragedy that has taken a particularly hard toll on women. They now comprise 70% of the population, since the genocide chiefly exterminated the male population.”
The main reason people quit pursuing ambitions and fantasies isn't the effort required, it is the extra pain that comes from knowing you are trying and failing. Not trying and failing feels a lot less painful.
"Sweden is the 6th most protective of private property rights, of all the nations in the world. … the most privatized pension system, by far, in all of Europe. Sweden has a 100% universal voucher system for education."
Since ~1970, women have slowly been getting more of what they demand, which has made them steadily less happy, while making men more happy. Mad about men being happy, ~2000 women figured out how to many men a lot less happy. But this didn't avert their own decline.
"All our mass-culture narratives … have the same structure: good guys battle bad guys for the moral future of society. These tropes are all over our movies and comic books. And yet they don’t exist in any folktales, myths or ancient epics."
As an intellectual who tries think straight in a storm of complex potential biases, I remain stunned by the ability of music to change my mood and attitudes without my consent or understanding. My switches get flipped, even as I watch and disapprove.
"U.S. government would have to spend approximately half of its expected lifetime tax receipts if it wanted to fully offset families’ costs of having a child."
So, its feasible then.
In Lord of the Rings, the one ring of power is something that results in bad even when wielded by someone who desires to do good with it. Are there such things in our world?
"Oppenheimer admitted to being a 'fellow traveler.' Indeed, Oppenheimer lied to government investigators & was often evasive about his numerous close relationships with known communist operatives. His first love, his wife, his brother, & many of his good friends & colleagues were…
Learning that an accomplished America scientist of the 1930s was a communist sympathizer is like learning one is a woke today.
You just have to assume it unless there's evidence to the contrary.
Thank God no one listens to scientists.
Decade from now AI will have had no detectable net employment impact. But those who predicted more won't admit error, as they will see AI boom still as just about to happen. Why do I see this as plausible? Because this is what happened over the last decade, & also the prior one.
"Zuck … does not believe … AGI is possible within a short timeframe. But … he’s not raising capital. The three people who are raising capital: Sam Altman, Elon Musk & Dario Amodei, are all on record expecting dramatic increases in capability. They could be hyping because they…
Zuck on Dwarkesh
TLDR: AI winter is here. Zuck is a realist, and believes progress will be incremental from here on. No AGI for you in 2025.
1) Zuck is essentially an real world growth pessimist. He thinks the bottlenecks start appearing soon for energy and they will be take…
I started re-reading Tolstoy's Anna Karenina before the invasion, and I'm NOT going to stop now out of protest. Russia has in fact had many valuable contributions to world civilization, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.
Unhappy that hospitals and insurers weren't posting prices, laws were passed requiring the posting of prices. So they are now releasing 100TB+ files of prices, monthly. They dare you to find the info you were looking for in all that.
I am shocked to learn that Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, with which I've long been affiliated, is now ended. I had no warning of this, & no idea it was coming.
"studies [show] that boys & girls generally prefer playing with toys typically associated with their biological sex: toy trucks for boys & dolls for girls, to give a rough example. These results have remained remarkably stable over the past 50 years"
Why don't old retired people do more drugs than young people? After all, the risks of physical harm and social unreliability or shame seems less for them. Are the potential gains from feeling good smaller by an even larger ratio?
Too many kids are going to college who should instead go to a trade school. But parents and potential mates prefer to associate with the prestige of a college graduate. I have a simple solution: change their names from trade schools to "trade colleges".
A secret to sanity when talking politics/policy: refuse to engage debates expressed in terms of purposely-vague terms like "socialism" "feminism" "justice" "nationalism" etc. Rephrase in terms precise enough to allow careful precise analysis. Perhaps engage w/ those accept this.
Humans often seem alien to me. Such as when I browse the abstracts of academic journals and think, "How could anyone possibly want to devote their life to this stuff?"
It now seems to me more likely than not that we are entering an eternal covid pandemic. Virus evolve rate exceeds rates people get vaccinated & vaccines are adapted to changing virus.
“Roughly one-third of men are either unemployed or out of the workforce. More U.S. men ages 18 to 34 are now living with their parents than with romantic partners.”
Someone asked: What's the most baffling example of human behavior?
My answer: The common practice of human sacrifice in very ancient societies. It wasn't just in a few weird places, it happened a lot most everywhere.
Yikes: "According to a friend, DeSantis would tell dates he liked Thai food, but pronounced it 'thigh.' If they corrected him, Finch wrote, he would find an excuse to leave. 'He didn’t want a girlfriend who corrected him.'"
@JoshuaChaffin
:
A reason adults are often uncomfortable talking to kids is that kids unknowingly give off clear signals re which adults they like/respect vs not. Also true of students re professors; students give off clear signals re which profs they less respect. Profs often resent this.
Most historical fiction misleads us into thinking that past folk were more like us than they actually were. If you understood how weird was the past, you'd know roughly how weird of a future to expect.
To critics and movie-goers I would simply say - the world was weird. IS weird, if you dare to travel beyond the confines of your provincial backyard or your Lonely Planet travel-guide.
Things seeming strange, even "absurd" to you does NOT mean they were not done.
I met someone whose job has been to be a life coach to effective altruists (EAs). I asked what measurable outcomes clients use to evaluate if she is helping them. She said EA clients never ask about that.
"In a first world setting, the reality is that going entirely vegetarian for the rest of your life means you reduce your [CO2] emissions by about 2%, according to a study of the environmental impact of Swedish vegetarians."
Top 20 most sexually promiscuous nations:
1. Australia
2. Brazil
3. Greece
4. Chile
5. New Zealand
6. Germany
7. Italy
8. Switzerland
9. Thailand
10. South Africa
11. Czechia
12. Finland
13. United Kingdom
14. Japan
15. United States
16. Netherlands
17. Mexico
18. Denmark
19.…
"Elon Musk’s internet satellite venture has spawned an unlikely alliance of competitors, regulators and experts who say the billionaire is building a near-monopoly that is threatening space safety and the environment."
Sounds like they think it might work!
"details revealed in data from 86 cultures… increased sexual freedom always led to the collapse of a culture 3 generations later… single most important correlation with the flourishing of a culture was whether pre-nuptial chastity was required or not"
People who say "follow your passion", don't seem to mean you should lean in on pleasures from horniness, recreational drugs, or seeing your rivals suffer. They apparently have some other passions in mind.
Fact that interest in religion declines as societies get rich suggests main gain from religion is to help deal with stressful situations that happen a lot more to the poor.
To a useful approximation, humans want to be comfy, healthy, fed, warm, respected, and loved. But I think a better approximation is that humans try to avoid being open to criticism. They work harder at blocking others' criticisms than they do at any other goal.
"One of the great sins of developed civilizations is how little value we place on young people’s time. … learning that we warehouse young people in the prime of their lives … to little benefit to themselves or others, should provoke seething rage."
Yes, many have been killed in the name of religion. But if religion were not available, I expect most of them would have killed n the name of something else. There was deeper reason to want to kill, and killers invoked the most idealistic name they knew.
“just 1.21% of the 148,012 feature-length films released in the 2010s contained depictions of sex, the lowest percentage of any decade since the 1960s”
We are in peak sex prude era.
When I walk past 1st class on my way to my coach seat, l give thanks to the people there. Airlines make more per square foot on 1st class seats, so they subsidize the other seats.
@pmarca
Why don’t MBA programs talk more about the essential management skill of collecting and managing a pool of low level spies within your own organization?
I guess I've just been "deplatformed". The organizers of this talk just told me they must cancel me as "Existing controversies over claims you made elsewhere were just brought to our attention." No more explanation of what claims or why they are a problem.
If you Google "long legs" and ask for images, almost all of them will be of human females. Even though human males tend to have longer legs on average. (Same at other search engines.)
"factors that affect pay … hours worked, willingness to do … dangerous work, willingness to relocate, willingness to do technical work without people contact … After controlling for all 25 factors, … gender pay gap not only disappears but reverses"
Good reason to learn philosophy is to immunize, so you don't become passionate devotee of first one you hear. Similar reason to learn of many grand proposals for social reform, so you don't just fall for the first one you hear. So learn of socialism, libertopia, futarchy, etc.
I want to see zombie apocalypse movie where experts have good candidates for anti-zombie treatments, but prevented from trying them due to laws: anti-gouging, professional licensing, drug regulations, experiment ethics, etc. Eventually run out of subjects for experiment subjects.
I'm so tired of the "econ assumes humans are rational, but they aren't, so econ is irrelevant" fallacy? Human behavior is plenty close enough to econ assumptions to make econ quite useful.
Visiting family, my well paid programmer son says he hasn't heard of any colleagues exploring GPT CoPilot, & my niece says her artist bf hasn't even considered exploring art generation tools like Stable Diffusion. Their world quite different from my Twitter feed.
"A team of researchers have located 830 million–year–old microorganisms in a piece of Australian rock salt, and they may even be alive."
If alive, that HUGELY increases the plausible rate of panspermia transfer between planets around different stars.
Our grabby aliens paper has been accepted by the prestigious Astrophysical Journal!
"we actually have enough data to say that aliens really are out there, and to roughly estimate where (some kinds) are, what they are doing, and when we will meet them."
Just tested GPT-4 on few dozen Qs. I saw no gain in reasoning, small gain in arguments it knows of (now knows of great filter), declining willingness to actually answer hard questions, & big jump in social desirability of answers (ethics always wins now).
"Nearly 8 out of 10 of young Britons blame capitalism for the housing crisis"
Capitalism is an effective economic system, but it's quite unintuitive.
In that regard it's akin to scientific theories which conflict with folk physics, folk biology, etc.
If your income/wealth >$1000/$7500, & you try to increase these, then you are trying to increase world inequality in these. Same anytime you try to increase a feature where you are above median. So admit that you don't think inequality is such a bad thing.
Nations visibly not opposing Russia (145M) on Ukraine (41M): China (1413M), India (1369M), Pakistan (225M), Brazil (214M), Turkey (85M): these add up to 44% of world population.
Now, here's an important caution. DO NOT PANIC. Panic is *never* useful. Panic kills your ability to make rational decisions about how to behave. There is *never ever* a time to panic, full stop.
Those w/ less access to sex plausibly suffer simiarly to those with low income, & might similarly hope to organize to lobby for redistribution along this axis. Strikingly, I see little overlap between those concerned about income & sex inequality.
So why do people like to play video games that seem to have many elements in common with jobs, and yet don't instead get and do such jobs? What exactly is the difference?
A longtime Fed insider told me privately that Fed officials are now mostly chosen based on recently publishing in top econ theory journals. Such folks have poor practical sense or experience in monetary policy, and have been making simple mistakes as a result.
"when applying for tenure-track positions in university science departments, … female candidates are now twice as likely to be chosen as equally qualified men."
I did not know: "Nazis… were often censored in Weimar Germany. Anti-Semitic speech was prohibited by law… ‘insulting communities of faith’ carried a 3-year prison sentence… leading Nazis… were… prosecuted for hate speech before they rose to power"
"Over a decade ago I held many beliefs that, as my current writing makes clear, I now find repulsive. My posts and blog comments in my early twenties encouraged racism, misogyny, misanthropy, trolling, and overall bad faith. … I all too clearly notice the kind of sloppy…