Nate Silver @NateSilver538 Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

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New Book, On The Edge, August 13:

New York

Joined August 2008

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

9 months

Now that I'm writing a bit more, switched my newsletter over to a custom domain. It's free for now but it's still much appreciated if you sign up for the mailing list!

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Silver Bulletin | Nate Silver | Substack

Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about. Click to read Silver Bulletin, by Nate Silver, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of...

www.natesilver.net

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

I don't know, but it sure seems to me like not calling the race when the outcome is obvious in states like PA and NV gives the president more time to spout misinformation.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

Repeating myself and others here, but the reason Lindsey Graham won't get tested despite having been exposed to many COVID+ people is because if he reveals a positive test and has to quarantine the Amy Coney Barrett nomination could get scuttled. There is no other logical reason.

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Nate Silver

6 years

Gotta be honest: On a night like tonight, I'm still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations which treated Hillary Clinton's email server as a matter of apocalyptic importance.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

@DonaldJTrumpJr I'll still have a job on January 21st, though.

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Nate Silver

4 years

Wait, so Trump not only rejects stimulus funds that would probably have helped his re-election chances, but *also* does so in a way to make sure that he personally will take blame for it?

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Nate Silver

3 years

Honestly the idea of Mike Pence being president for 12 hours or something, so that everyone who looks back at the list of U.S. Presidents generations from now is like "WTF happened there?", is another (small) reason to vote on removal *before* Trump leaves office.

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Nate Silver

5 years

If you're one of those news organizations that treated Clinton's private emails like they were a national emergency, the solution isn't to treat Ivanka's private emails like they're also a national emergency—rather, it's to acknowledge that you kinda fucked up on Clinton.

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Nate Silver

4 years

Looking forward to some random Sunday afternoon 3 years from now when I'm like "why do I follow like 100 epidemiologists on Twitter?"

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

Anybody who's like "we'll that was a pretty good showing for Trump!" should consider how Hillary Clinton was treated as the World's Biggest Loser after an election with the same Electoral College margin as this one*. * But where she won the popular vote instead of losing it by 5

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

6 years

I know there's a lot of competition but this is the worst thing he's ever tweeted.

@realDonaldTrump

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

6 years

3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000...

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Nate Silver

3 years

BIDEN LEADS IN PENNSYLVANIA

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Nate Silver

3 years

Worth mentioning that if you stopped counting ballots *right now*, Biden would win with this map. So Trump is reliant on ballots counted after Election Day for his comeback chances.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

7 years

Hard to think of any difference between Weinstein & Trump other than one of them was his PARTY's NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.

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Nate Silver

3 years

I'm not sure it's really sunk in yet, even among reporters, that we're probably going to get 2 runoffs in Georgia on Jan. 5 that will determine control of the Senate.

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Nate Silver

4 years

"RBG dies 6 weeks before the election and the ceremony at the White House to name her replacement turns into a COVID-19 superspreading event" is, on the one hand, a remarkably strange sequence of events, but on the other hand chock-full of foreseeable risks that went unprevented.

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Nate Silver

3 years

ABC NEWS: BIDEN WINS

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Nate Silver

4 years

OK this is real bad tho

@NBCNews

NBC News

4 years

Reporter: "Win, lose or draw in this election, will you commit here today for a peaceful transferal of power after the election?" President Trump: "We're going to have to see what happens."

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

6 years

This is obvious I guess, but if you want to cut down on bothsidesism, put people on TV who have subject-matter expertise acquired through reporting or research... not generalists who are asked to opine on a whole bunch of topics they don't really know anything about.

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Nate Silver

5 years

The one thing I have no patience for is dudes (it's almost *always* dudes) who spend 15 minutes on something you've been studying for 10+ years and act like they've solved Fermat's Last Theorm

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Nate Silver

3 years

So Trump operatives are bragging about how the news media has called Alaska and North Carolina for them... while refusing to accept that the same news organization have called Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and the presidency for Biden.

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Nate Silver

3 years

I'm too tired for long takes but on a scale from 0 to 10 on how bad this is for the GOP, it's maybe like a 9, not just because of the immediate implications, but also because it may imply that Trump is sort of a poison pill for how the party navigates its future.

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Nate Silver

3 years

Whichever network calls this first will look good in retrospect.

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Nate Silver

4 years

This is not a subtweet of anyone in particular and it's going to annoy some people since I have a lot of PhD followers/friends and also I'm a stubborn guy myself but...one thing I'm noticed is that once someone gets a PhD, it become 10x harder to convince them they're wrong.

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Nate Silver

3 years

If there's a significant political backlash for impeaching Trump for **inciting an insurrection** then we're probably completely fucked no matter what.

@ryanstruyk

Ryan Struyk

3 years

No. 2 House Republican Rep. Steve Scalise: "I don't think anybody can look and say an impeachment of this president is the thing that's going to help unite and bring our country together."

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Nate Silver

4 years

Sorry if this point is a little obvious, but it's pretty hard for Trump to sustain an argument that the NYT taxes story is "fake news" when he won't release his taxes himself. Obviously the base will buy it but I'm not sure that anybody else does.

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Nate Silver

4 years

So apparently the candidate in 3rd place is a bigger story than the candidate in 2nd place, who in turn is a bigger story than the candidate in 1st place? OK.

@tripgabriel

Trip Gabriel

4 years

No. 1 story of the night: @amyklobuchar No. 2 story of the night (so far): @PeteButtigieg coming closer to @BernieSanders than expected.

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Nate Silver

5 years

Imagine being a political columnist who could write about literally any topic you wanted and, given everything going on in American politics these days, you decided to write about how a woman member of Congress used a swear word.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

If 90% of the ballots are from Clark County, there's no reason not to call Nevada.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

7 years

If we don't know if Clinton really won the popular vote then we also don't know if Trump really won the Electoral College.

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Nate Silver

3 years

ABC News has projected that Jon Ossoff has won his US Senate race in Georgia and therefore that Democrats will gain control of the US Senate.

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Nate Silver

5 years

I wish I could forgive you from not knowing how math works, but some things are truly unpardonable.

@DineshDSouza

Dinesh D'Souza

5 years

And just like that, an 80 percent chance for Democratic takeover of the House goes to 50-50. Nate Silver’s polling operation can’t survive a second embarrassment of the magnitude he suffered in 2016

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Nate Silver

6 years

So far, Parkland is *not* fading from the news the way that mass shootings usually do. (The graph shows Google searches for the term "gun control".) The students speaking out makes a pretty big difference.

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Nate Silver

3 years

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Nate Silver

3 years

Just 222 COVID deaths reported in the US yesterday, which is the fewest since March 23, 2020.

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Nate Silver

4 years

If the Democratic Party wants a field that's representative of its members and its voters, it probably shouldn't have two states as white as Iowa and New Hampshire vote first every year.

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Nate Silver

4 years

Trump can still win. But on the other hand, if you're deriving a model from history, it implicitly presumes some baseline level of competence from a presidental campaign that may not be compatible with, say, getting into a public spat with Dr. Fauci 3 weeks out from the election.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

8 years

Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight projection on what the Electoral College would look like if women refuse to vote Trump.

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Nate Silver

4 years

You don't need a fancy algorithm to know that Trump is losing, pretty badly at the moment. The Supreme Court pick doesn't seem to be helping him. The COVID situation may be getting worse again. Maybe the debates will help. But the clock is ticking: people are already voting.

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Nate Silver

4 years

I've written and deleted a version of this tweet like 12 times, but I think overall people should direct more of their ire at governmental officials and less at random dumb individuals.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

5 years

Just want to get this out of the way so I only have to say it once: It's a big deal that an openly gay man is a serious contender for a major party's presidential nomination, and if you're liberal who wants to equivocate about that too much, you can pretty much fuck right off.

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Nate Silver

5 years

H e ' s r u n n i n g

@davidsiders

David Siders

5 years

. @BetoORourke acknowledges he has changed his answer on #2020 ... now not ruling it out

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Nate Silver

3 years

Those Maricopa ballots have probably closed down Trump's path in Arizona. He needed to do much better.

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Nate Silver

7 years

So, it totally fits the pattern that Trump is attacking the mayor San Juan. She challenged him and she's a woman (and Hispanic, obviously.)

@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

7 years

Alternative hypothesis: Trump has poor impulse control & is easily triggered, especially when being challenged (esp. by women & minorities).

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Nate Silver

3 years

Going by the popular vote, this will probably be the 2nd-least-close election since 2000.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

7 years

Sorry for the random aside but I feel like Sarah Palin is under-discussed as a predecessor/precedent for Trumpism.

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Nate Silver

3 years

6 cases out of 7 million people. What a disaster. This is going to get people killed. And it's going to create more vaccine hesitancy. These people don't understand cost-benefit analysis. They keep making mistakes by orders of magnitude.

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Nate Silver

4 years

Personally, I'd say the candidate who won 1.5 states (Sanders) is the frontrunner over the candidate who won 0.5 states (Buttigieg), especially if that candidate is also leading national polls.

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Nate Silver

5 years

I’m not trying to be a jerk but the Times still owes its readers an explanation about what the f*** was going on with this vector of its reporting in 2016.

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Nate Silver

6 years

If Republicans have a good night on Tuesday and think they won the midterm on the basis of immigration/xenophobia/race-baiting, just imagine how much Trump is going to turn the dial up in 2020.

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Nate Silver

6 years

The thing about the Parkland students isn't that they're always spot-on—they've had better and worse moments as communicators. But they're at least as effective at politics as most professional pundits who have done it for years. Naturally, that's very threatening to the pundits.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

6 years

What if—and hear me out because this will sound CRAZY—instead of interviewing a few voters at a time in a bar in Pennsylvania, we interviewed HUNDREDS of voters, chosen at random from all around the country. Furthermore, we'd ask them all the same questions to minimize bias.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 months

You don't demonstrate your seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by going through the motions to renominate an 81-year-old with a 38% approval rating who 75% of voters think is too old without giving anyone a choice because that's just how things are done.

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Nate Silver

3 years

Those warnings we gave you about not paying too much attention to results until you're sure a county is fully reported... you're already ignoring them! But I'll say it again: don't pay much attention to results until you're sure a county is fully reported (mail, in-person, etc.)

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Nate Silver

6 years

There really needs to be a semi exclamation point for when a period conveys too little enthusiasm in a work-related email but using the full exclamation point makes you seem like a psychopath.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

6 years

Hopefully they can use their investigative skills to solve the mystery of why someone they hired as a comedian told jokes.

@whca

WHCA

6 years

#WHCA Statement to Members on Annual Dinner

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

6 years

One shouldn't underrate how much the media's obsession with Clinton's emails stemmed from its obsession with fending off accusations of liberal bias. Trump had... LOTS of issues.... so there was tremendous weight put on this one Clinton issue to preserve "balance".

@chrislhayes

Chris Hayes

6 years

@jdawsey1 One thing you can say is that the sheer volume and intensity of coverage of Clinton’s use of private email was absolute malpractice by the media, given how common the practice is.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

5 years

About 60 million people turned out to vote for Democrats for the House this year. That is a **crazy** number. (Republicans got 45m votes in the 2010 wave.) And this was sort of missed. Why so many stories about Trump voters in truck stops and not so many about "the resistance"?

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Nate Silver

3 years

After the past 48 hours, I would not want to be one of those Republicans like Josh Hawley who hitched my star to the notion that I could offer some kindler, gentler, smarter version of Trumpism.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

I know a Sanders win is somewhat priced in, but I'm not sure why the story is about who finishes in 2nd and 3rd place instead of him winning, especially if it looks like a decently clear win.

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Nate Silver

7 years

As Trump’s problems mount, the media’s obsession with Clinton’s email server–literally the most-covered issue of 2016– looks worse & worse.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

Biden has won the last 600k ballots counted in Pennsylvania by 40 points, which is much bigger than the 22-point margin he needs the rest of the way out.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

I'm not sure why trying to fight the debate to a messy, unwatchable draw is supposed to be a good strategy for Trump when he's 7 points behind in the polls.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

So... is Trump going to self-quarantine?

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

I'm not some sort of COVID alarmist... I've tried to stay pretty even-keeled and have been burned by being too optimistic at times... but I find the rising case rates in the US (and for that matter also Europe) pretty worrisome right now.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

Tired of people framing "Trump will declare victory prematurely" as a media story. Most likely—in part because the White House has telegraphed it so much in advance—the media will be fairly well-prepared. Instead, it's a story about Trump seeking to undermine faith in democracy.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

Feels like everyone's running with their Why-Democrats-Lost takes even though Democrats won.

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Nate Silver

4 years

I'm not trying to piss people off but it's a little rich that some prominent voices who spent months saying how awful Warren was compared to Bernie are now furious at Warren for failing to endorse him.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points: 22% 2-3 points: 46% 3-4 points: 74% 4-5 points: 89% 5-6 points: 98% 6-7 points: 99%

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Nate Silver

3 years

Hawley seems like the sort of politician who will be heralded by pundits as the new GOP frontrunner in some future election year and then will finish in 5th place in Iowa.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

It's hard to strike the right balance between, on the one hand, pointing out how the erosion of democratic norms around accepting election results is highly concerning in the long run, and, on the other hand, pointing out how desperate and pathetic this all is.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

I'm guessing that Biden will win California now with this Harris pick.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

I don't want to speculate *too* much about the political ramifications of…this…but that there apparently was a superspreading event, and that there are photos from the event of people hanging out indoors and outdoors in close proximity without masks on, is not great for the WH.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

1 year

Welp. The behavior of a certain cadre of scientists who used every trick in the book to suppress discussion of this issue is something I'll never forget. A huge disservice to science and public health. They should be profoundly embarrassed.

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WSJ News Exclusive | Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, Energy Department Now Says

The U.S. agency’s revised assessment of how the pandemic started is based on new intelligence.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

Michigan now tied and there's every reason to think the remaining votes will be pretty blue.

@DecisionDeskHQ

Decision Desk HQ

@DecisionDeskHQ

3 years

MI Presidential Election Results Trump (R): 49.2% (2,345,412 votes) Biden (D): 49.2% (2,343,266 votes) Estimated: Estimated 86.4% - 99% in

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

5 years

Democrats won The Ossoff Seat.

@ajconwashington

Tia Mitchell, AJC’s Washington Correspondent

@ajconwashington

5 years

U.S. Rep. Karen Handel concedes to Democrat Lucy McBath in #GA06 #gapol

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

6 years

(Whispers: It's kind of insane to have irrevocable lifetime appointments for *anything*.)

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

5 years

Tomorrow's NYT print edition. Not sure "TRUMP URGES UNITY VS. RACISM" is how I would have framed the story.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

It's for extremely understandable reasons, but people seem to be sleeping on the significance of the fact that Democrats **just won two runoffs in Georgia** to **claim control of Congress**.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

There's a shortage now, how many ventilators you making @elonmusk ?

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

4 years

@suhaylabbas @fawadchaudhry We will make ventilators if there is a shortage

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

If you just go by what ABC News has called (we're on the conservative side tonight)... Biden's win probability would go from 69% to 85% based on NE-2 being called! That one electoral vote makes a huge amount of difference.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

5 years

We're changing our rating on this race to Lean Prison.

@JoeBrunoWSOC9

Joe Bruno

5 years

Former #CLTCC candidate Pete Givens confirmed to Channel 9 that Mark Harris introduced him to McCrae Dowless. "Mark told me about this guy's process... that he had a process." Harris is Givens' pastor First reported by @theobserver #NC09 #ncpol

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

Perhaps a bit far-fetched, but Romney actually has a decent amount of leverage, if he and one of Collins, Murkowski, etc. threatened to become "Independent Republicans" or what have you who caucused with the Democrats.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

I understand he wants to project strength, but polls show that a large majority of the public doesn't think Trump took COVID seriously and that colors their response to his illness. So even apart from putting Secret Service members in danger, etc., not sure it's wise politically.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

Sorry if this is a bit random, but the fact that Biden easily won the Democratic primary despite having little support from blue-checkmark liberal elites is something that ought to have been a pretty big wake-up call but doesn't seem to have been.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

You're not going to learn anything useful about the election outcome on here until 7pm, i.e. when they start counting votes.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

I'm too tired to make this point eloquently, but part of what happens at the end of a not-especially-close election is that there's a lot of effort to create ambiguity, and you have to be pretty steadfast to see through that ambiguity.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

5 years

The recent rhetoric from Trump, and often other Republicans, trying to delegitimize election results is awfully dangerous. Maybe the most openly authoritarian move he's made so far.

@BrendanNyhan

Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️)

5 years

From @TomPepinsky , an expert on authoritarian politics: "In a month of harrowing news, this development is still almost incalculably bad for American democracy."

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Nate Silver

7 years

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Nate Silver

1 year

This is so refreshingly honest. The Bad People thought the lab leak might be true, therefore as journalists we couldn't be expected to actually evaluate the evidence for it.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

6 years

When someone regularly cites outlier polls instead of the polling average it's an **extremely** reliable tell that they're a bullshitter.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

I don't want to be too snarky but Trump needs to close a big polling deficit and this is the message on a day with 80k new COVID cases and a 940 point decline in the Dow.

@NikkiMcR

nikki mccann ramírez

4 years

Tucker is claiming that his super-secret, extremely damming trove of documents about Hunter Biden was stolen while in the mail.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

It's hard to tell whether GOP leaders are being strategic and cynical (e.g. hoping to keep their base excited) when indulging claims of election-rigging, or are just wholly disconnected from reality. But in some ways I wonder if it's even possible to distinguish between the two.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

There's this dumb argument circulating that if you'd known in advance what would happen—i.e. Trump beating his polls—you shouldn't have Biden e.g. a 90% chance of winning. Actually, if you'd known in advance what would happen, you should have given Biden a 100% chance of winning!

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Nate Silver

6 years

I don't know, I watch these clips where Ocasio-Cortez is supposedly making huge gaffes and it seems like her policy knowledge is...probably about on par with or maybe a bit ahead of the average member of Congress.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

Everybody is too risk-averse to write the "actually, Trump is terrible at politics" hot take but it will instantly be presumed to be *incredibly obvious* if polls are roughly correct on Nov. 3.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

Seems to me that if Biden is at 51% in polls but his supporters aren't super vocal and don't have a ton of yard signs out there and stuff, then Biden voters could make a good claim to being the "silent majority".

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

5 years

LOL, imagine a world where subscriber-based businesses are responsive to their subscribers, it's not fucking Orwell bro.

@Mark_Penn

Mark Penn

5 years

The day a twitter mob can change a headline on the New York Times this paper is truly finished and replaced by a new kind of 1984 Ministry of Truth. The news is now what people say it is.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

I spend 90% of my time thinking about the thing that will happen 10% of the time.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

4 years

It probably doesn't end well, but it isn't clear yet in which way it ends poorly.

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@NateSilver538

Nate Silver

3 years

Georgia, which has a Republican Secretary of State, has probably been the most transparent state in the country with respect to its vote counting process, with precise updates on exactly how many ballots were left to count in which counties. There is a lot of doublespeak here.

@KLoeffler

Kelly Loeffler

3 years

Joint statement from @Perduesenate and myself. #gapol #gasen

Tweet media one

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