Robby @greerreNFL Twitter profile

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Robby

@greerreNFL

4 months

It’s 4th and 16 Would you rather complete an 8 yard pass with 0% probability of a first down Or Chuck it deep into the end zone and risk an INT Congratulations, you now understand EPA, and why Allen’s 18 interceptions are not that big a deal

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@greerreNFL

4 months

Imagine the Jordan v Lebron debate if Lebron was 0-2 against Wizards era Jordan in the playoffs

The Volume

@TheVolumeSports

4 months

"What if in 30 years, we view Brady as Bill Russell?" — @ColinCowherd and @getnickwright discuss the 'count the rings' argument

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@greerreNFL

3 months

“Bill Russell has the most rings. Was he better than Jordan or Lebron?” My friends, Brady has: •The most rings •The highest peak •The longest prime He is Russell, Jordan, and LeBron COMBINED

Robby

@greerreNFL

3 months

It’s hard to argue that Mahomes isnt on the best trajectory of any QB ever But to say he’s already eclipsed Brady presupposes a level of late career success only achieved by one dude so far In my opinion, it’s a convo at 6 and a debate 7

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@greerreNFL

3 months

Some count rings, others count units 🐐

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Robby

@greerreNFL

4 months

Despite Allen’s 18 INTs, he cost his team less EPA and WPA on INTs per drop back than the average starter Allen was situationally aggressive, which is exactly what you want your QB to be Is he the best at protecting the ball? No, but in context, the INTs were not that costly

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Robby

@greerreNFL

3 months

Hard to understand the hate Shanahan is getting after the Super Bowl There were 7 fumbles in this game and KC recovered 6 (six!) of them Sometimes it just doesn’t break your way…

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Robby

@greerreNFL

8 months

Folks, the Bills might be very good this year...like, very very good

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Robby

@greerreNFL

3 months

It’s hard to argue that Mahomes isnt on the best trajectory of any QB ever But to say he’s already eclipsed Brady presupposes a level of late career success only achieved by one dude so far In my opinion, it’s a convo at 6 and a debate 7

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Robby

@greerreNFL

1 year

There is not an elite QB in the last 20 years that has gotten less defensive help than Patrick Mahomes ( also Brady getting substantially more help than Manning is a myth 🤫)

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@greerreNFL

6 months

It's a shame our Josh Allen MVP futures are cooked because he's having the best season of any QB 1st in Win Probability Added 2nd in Total EPA 3rd in EPA / Dropback Oh and the interceptions? He lost 0.01 EPA / drop back *LESS* than the league average on interceptions

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Robby

@greerreNFL

3 months

On playing from behind, here are all instances since 1999 where... QB took the field with: ‣ Under 5 minutes ‣ Down by 8 or less ‣ Win probability <50% And left the field with: ‣ Win probability >50% on their last play OR ‣ Their team tied or took the lead

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Robby

@greerreNFL

5 months

Because Dak and Allen were slotted for wildcards most the season, a narrative formed that they were ineligible for the MVP Now that they have the stats *and* the seeding to be MVP, what’s the excuse?

Computer Cowboy

@benbbaldwin

5 months

Final (regular season) quarterback grade and efficiency Allen-Dak-Lamar finish 1-2-3 in grade Purdy-Dak-Allen finish 1-2-3 in EPA per play

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@greerreNFL

5 months

Josh Allen led a 4th quarter drive that tied or took the lead in 4 of the Bills 6 losses In no games did he lose a 4th quarter lead on a turnover Not all MVP candidates can claim the latter…

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Robby

@greerreNFL

8 months

A glorious chart for Cowboy fans. Currently on pace for the best Net EPA / Play ever

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Robby

@greerreNFL

6 months

Josh Allen has lost fewer points on interceptions than Mahomes, Dak, and Hurts send tweet

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@greerreNFL

3 years

Not sure entirely why I decided to make this, but I think a lot of the "what is EPA" explainers don't use enough data viz to build intuition for the stat and don't explain it as an accounting framework for analysis rather than a stand-a-lone metric

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Robby

@greerreNFL

11 months

Fool me once, shame on you

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Robby

@greerreNFL

3 months

A good rule in data — increasing sample isolates signal by smoothing random noise “QB Wins” is a function of: - QB (signal) - Team (noise) - Opponent (noise) - Luck (noise) QB Wins: 1 Game = not a QB stat 1 Season = not really a QB stat 1 Career = very much a QB stat

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Robby

@greerreNFL

4 months

What EPA cannot tell us is whether or not there were alternatives available For instance, in Week 18 there was a clear 1st down in the flat that he passed up for an end zone shot that resulted in an INT You need film to see that…but he was also 1st in PFF grading, so…

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Robby

@greerreNFL

4 months

Not exactly -- Brady and Manning both reached the heights Mahomes has achieved In fact, Brady is the one with the "highest peak" What's different about Mahomes is that he started his career at Brady and Manning's peak level He's Marino, but with rings

Aaron Schatz 🏈

@ASchatzNFL

4 months

There's going to be a lot of talk in the next 2 weeks about whether Patrick Mahomes is the GOAT. I liked the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract because he ranked players two ways: peak and career. I think it's clear Mahomes has passed Brady and Manning as the Peak GOAT.

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Robby

@greerreNFL

6 months

This play is a great example as to why "deep accuracy" should be thought of as more a function of the receiver than QB Tua's ball goes over the wrong shoulder, Hill adjusts, gets under the ball and catches it for a 60 yard TD Average receiver does not catch this ball

FOX Sports: NFL

@NFLonFOX

6 months

TYREEK HILL IS NOT HUMAN... another 60+ yard TD for @cheetah ! 🐬 📺 FOX

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Robby

@greerreNFL

9 months

Super Bowl winners (since '99) sorted by the average yards per season their top 3 receivers generated in the seasons after the Super Bowl Nothin to see here 🐐

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Robby

@greerreNFL

5 months

Top 11 QBs by total EPA, along with the breakout of where they are generating / losing EPA vs the league average

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Robby

@greerreNFL

5 months

The Bills have 90% chance to make the playoffs Between the injuries, fired OC, and off field controversy, where would this team be without Allen, who has *cooked* all year By any serious measure, he is the MVP

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Robby

@greerreNFL

2 years

Amazing that we can declare going for it on 4th down bad strategy after 5 attempts, but we can’t declare running on 2nd and long bad strategy after its resulted in no fewer than 1 trillion punts two plays later Punts are turnovers too

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Robby

@greerreNFL

10 months

Right on schedule

NFL Notifications

@NFLNotify

10 months

𝗥𝗘𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧: Justin Fields is currently the most bet on player to win MVP on PointsBet. He has more MVP bets than Mahomes, Allen and Herbert combined 📈

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@greerreNFL

7 months

Here are the 5 QBs who benefit the most from YAC (on an EPA / play basis) Great play calling and scheme can really elevate QB production

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Robby

@greerreNFL

2 years

This is quite interesting EPA / Dropback has the highest correlation to margin of victory, but... ANY/A and Passer Rating have a higher correlation than QBR, QB Elo, and PFF Grades

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Robby

@greerreNFL

1 year

Zach Wilson is playing on borrowed time 3rd worst QB *ever* by Era Adj. Elo per Game QBs this bad typically do not make it to 20 starts -- Wilson is at 22

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Robby

@greerreNFL

2 years

Continuing to explore home field advantage and found three additional factors worth adding to a model: * Influence of field surface --> worth more than a bye * Asymmetric nature of byes --> away benefits more * Relative timezone advantages --> it's not just a cross country thing

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Robby

@greerreNFL

4 months

@alffridsen See, you get what we’re doing here! Is this a real take? Of course not. Maybe. I don’t know

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Robby

@greerreNFL

7 months

MVP often goes to a QB in the top 3 in Total EPA Josh Allen is essentially tied for 1st in Total EPA and currently has the 6th best odds at ~+1800 The narrative around the Bills is crazy

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@greerreNFL

6 months

"The Bills are losing because of Josh Allen's turnovers" Actually, he's hurt his team less with turnovers than the current MVP front runner🤷‍♂️

Joseph Hefner

@josephjefe

6 months

How much are turnovers caused by the QB hurting your team overall? This is every interception + fumble lost by a QB for each team, and the sum total of Win Probability that has been lost by each team from them. Top right means few interceptions, and not much pain.

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Robby

@greerreNFL

4 months

Is the KC offense really fixed or did they just play the two most depleted defenses in the NFL before only putting up 17 in the AFCCG? Is the 49ers’ defense really a liability or did they just play two of the hottest offenses in the league? Hard to say 🤷‍♂️

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Robby

@greerreNFL

5 months

In 2024, let's make a collective resolution to minimize the amount of toxic QB discourse on this app For instance, here is a chart celebrating Jordan Love's first season as a starter Nice job Jordan!

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Robby

@greerreNFL

5 months

Not quite the “same guy”

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Robby

@greerreNFL

4 years

How to use market regression to predict NFL games more accurately than the market itself

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@greerreNFL

3 months

Toss in a missed XP, a shot to close out the game on 3rd and short, a shot to end the game on 4th and 1, etc etc These games come down to the narrowest of margins Being a play away from a SB win is about all a coach can do He’s one of the best in the league

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Robby

@greerreNFL

8 months

Fool me once, can't get fooled again

Robby

@greerreNFL

11 months

Fool me once, shame on you

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@greerreNFL

4 months

Yeah man, Brady totally sucked when he no longer had “Kraft, Belichick, and the ‘culture’”

The Volume

@TheVolumeSports

4 months

"What if in 30 years, we view Brady as Bill Russell?" — @ColinCowherd and @getnickwright discuss the 'count the rings' argument

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Robby

@greerreNFL

2 years

The most offensive points scored over a 3k play stretch is 1221 by the '18 - '20 Chiefs The fewest offensive points scored over a 3k play stretch is 504 by the '10 - '13 Chiefs

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@greerreNFL

4 months

I must also add, this was not meant to be anti-Tua, who I think is being very under-appreciated at the moment… While I don’t think he’s as good as the true believers, he’s a really good player and I’m sure he made what he thought was the best throw available to him Absurd to

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@greerreNFL

1 year

‘22 Herbert highlights the biggest limitation of EPA as a QB stat No counterfactual When no one’s open downfield and Herbert navigates a broken pocket to avoid a sack and hit a check down for a gain of 2…he gets negative EPA EPA has no context for what an avg QB would do

Steven Ruiz

@theStevenRuiz

1 year

Think about how well Herbert is playing tonight. This is his epa.

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Robby

@greerreNFL

3 years

Era Adjusted QB Elo is now live on the QB rankings page! This tool allows you to compare any 5 QBs from across the complete history of the NFL

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Robby

@greerreNFL

1 year

Yo is Mike McCarthy a Hall of Fame Coach? Since 1999 he has... • 4th most wins • 3rd most playoff appearances • 8th best average margin of victory • a Super Bowl Ring

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@greerreNFL

1 year

Ryan Leaf does not impress me Zach Wilson does not impress me Johnny Manziel does not impress me JaMarcus Russel does not impress me Trent Dilfer? He impresses me

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@greerreNFL

2 years

Do you ever think about how Over Expected metrics (CPOE, RYOE, etc) are just model error terms And then what does it mean to assign 100% of the model error to a single omitted variable (QB, RB, etc)

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@greerreNFL

6 months

For the “EPA is a team stat, you have to watch film” crowd… EPA has the highest correlation to PFF grades of any stat based QB metric (they’re all pretty close) Are we all just big dummies for looking at stats?

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@greerreNFL

1 year

@NemoJNobody It shows that there has been no better offense for a sustained period of time than the one quarterbacked by Mahomes

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@greerreNFL

4 months

@LaBen_27 Per drop back, Allen cost his team less in EPA and WPA on INTs than the average starter The number of INTs thrown matters much less than when those INTs are thrown

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Robby

@greerreNFL

4 months

@Humbleobserver8 For sure. The broader point is that all plays occur in a context, which EPA helps us understand Risk taking is not a bad thing if the situation calls for it

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@greerreNFL

4 months

Hopefully you all aren’t taking this too seriously

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Robby

@greerreNFL

1 year

Analytics

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Robby

@greerreNFL

3 years

"Defensive regression" is a partial misnomer that can be confusing A defense's performance is largely dictated by who they're playing It's not just that the players on the defense regress, but rather, the quality of QBs they face regresses to the mean

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@greerreNFL

3 years

Yo this is cool -- most accurate models by mse

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Robby

@greerreNFL

4 years

Pinning a single thread with all the analysis, code, and findings from this account New work will be added as it’s released 👇

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@greerreNFL

5 months

I’ve been told EPA is *strictly* a team stat So imagine my surprise when I found out 8 of the 10 teams with the largest improvement in team EPA had a material change at QB

Tej Seth

@tejfbanalytics

5 months

offenses that improved the most from last season to this season (using the EPA/play difference): 1. texans, 0.14 <- 2. colts, 0.13 <- 3. rams, 0.13 4. 49ers, 0.10 5. ravens, 0.08 6. cowboys, 0.07 7. dolphins, 0.06 8. buccaneers, 0.05 9. packers, 0.05 10. broncos, 0.04

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Robby

@greerreNFL

4 years

This offseason, I've been trying to improve the weighted EPA model to get it production ready for 2020 One weight consistently surprised me was the overweight for air yard EPA on completed passes This sparked a very fun project that I'll be writing up soon. Here's a preview 👇

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@greerreNFL

3 years

More interesting stuff coming out of the QB model build... Predicting QB performance in an effort to predict a game outcome means you should be predicting the metric that most closely aligns to *margin of victory* EPA / Play seems best here

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@greerreNFL

10 months

It is done QB Elo model re-written (w/ some improvements) and pipelines created to have this run each week w/ just a bit of manual work for updating starters Next step is to turn it into a repo where the CSV can be shared in the same format as the original 538 file

Robby

@greerreNFL

11 months

Damnit. So sad 538's Elo was the original framework for nfelo and I still use their QB adjustments Which leads me to my next question... Anyone want to try to keep this project going?

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@greerreNFL

7 months

The Vikings negative variance / mean reversion this season is even funnier than you’d think They are are one of just 3 teams that have recorded a PFF team grade you’d normally expect to result in a win in all 6 of their games

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@greerreNFL

8 months

Since rush attempts have a negative expected EPA, it's hard to measure RB performance with it Well, what if we made a model that predicted EPA, measured who exceeded expectation the most? Let's call it rbEPA Here are the top 15 in total rbEPA since 2006

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@greerreNFL

8 months

The 2021 draft class was supposed to be one of the best ever for QBs It set a record for the most QBs selected in the first 3 rounds Well, it's turning out to be one of the worst of the last decade

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@greerreNFL

3 months

@BeanEnjoyersCEO Brady’s peak will surprise you!

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@greerreNFL

9 months

Jimmy Garoppolo EPA by team: LV: 046 NE: 0.41 SF: 0.20 (3rd in the NFL from '17 - '22) It's time we ask ourselves the important questions -- did Kyle hold Jimmy back?

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Robby

@greerreNFL

1 year

Last season, the Chiefs had the hardest projected schedule of any team since 2003 It ended up easier than 81% of the schedules over the same period 🤯 These teams were all way worse than expected: • Broncos x2 • Chargers x2 • Raiders x2 • Rams • Cards • Bucs • Colts

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@greerreNFL

5 months

Jags last 4 drives made it to: Baltimore 32 > missed FG Baltimore 36 > missed FG Baltimore 23 > Fumble Baltimore 5 > Time expired Spectacular

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Robby

@greerreNFL

5 months

The updated Fields/Trubisky chart

Robby

@greerreNFL

11 months

Fool me once, shame on you

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@greerreNFL

3 months

@steven64893723 I will not entertain an insightful and well reasoned take like this Not on here. Not on twitter

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@greerreNFL

1 year

Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers do not impress me The 5 worst QBs to win a SB? They impress me It’s easy to win when you’re good, but have you ever tried being not good

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@greerreNFL

4 months

Number of Super Bowl appearances vs the number of seasons required to reach them Mahomes is only the 3rd player to get to 4 in 5 or fewer seasons (Kelly and Brady) Also, Brady's 2014-2020 probably not talked about enough-- 7 seasons, 5 appearances, and 3 rings

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@greerreNFL

1 year

In Belichick’s Football Life doc, there’s a clip of him chatting w/ Brady before the Titans blizzard game Belichick: “how’s this look?” Brady: “oh man, this is a QB’s dream right here” Belichick: “yep, they’ll never rush in this” Brady threw 5 TDs in a single quarter

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@greerreNFL

7 months

Even after the losses, the Bills and 49ers are still pretty close to the mark for best net EPA since 2009 (which was the '19 Ravens)

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@greerreNFL

1 year

Like any good analyst, the first question I always ask myself before cracking open my laptop is: “How can I use data to ruin the sport for everyone else”

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@greerreNFL

5 months

Bills and Pats have combined for 20 points and negative 8 passing yards through 13 minutes of football Incredible

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@greerreNFL

5 months

How well various metrics predict future PFF grades based on the size of the sample used Every time I look at metrics for QBs, ANY/A is surprisingly awful. Just use Passer Rating

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@greerreNFL

3 years

QB aDoT by itself is *terrible* metric for measuring QB performance Using it that way is not "analytics" Using it to dunk on QBs with low aDoT is beyond dumb

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@greerreNFL

3 years

Dak is 89th percentile through 77 games. Almost all QBs with this profile ended up as HOFers

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@greerreNFL

2 months

Top 5 Winners and Losers in Super Bowl Odds from Feb to March Free Agency has less impact that you might expect

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@greerreNFL

3 years

If you're still assuming 2.5 for home field advantage in the NFL... HFA has been: 0.13 season to date 0.49 over the last 3 seasons 1.32 over the last 5 seasons 1.94 over the last decade

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@greerreNFL

3 months

2024 MVP Probability vs Team Super Bowl Probability Feels maybe a touch disrespectful to Purdy 🤏

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@greerreNFL

8 months

This is so disrespectful

Robby

@greerreNFL

8 months

What’s a worse sign for a pass defense?

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@greerreNFL

3 years

Ok, this is wild KC is 18th in net epa, has negative net epa on a rolling 250 play basis.....but is ranked *3rd* by WEPA, which weights epa to strip out things that are less predictive (turnovers, defense, etc) Would not bet against this team in the 2nd half of the season

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@greerreNFL

9 months

I sincerely appreciate that Ruiz doesn't just stack rank on recent performance like 99% of rankings If you've ever looked into modeling QB performance, you'd see how impactful QB-independent circumstance is on raw stats and team outcomes This list is good

Steven Ruiz

@theStevenRuiz

9 months

The internet's favorite QB rankings are back. I'll give it away: Patrick Mahomes is no. 1 away but you have to click to see the rest of them. We've made a couple of small tweaks to the grading and presentation. Excited for you guys to check them out.

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@greerreNFL

9 months

nfelo has been updated for the 2023 season This uses the new QB model and introduces Win Total ratings as part of the ensemble that sets pre-season ratings (very small improvements) The QB ranking and Power Ranking pages will update after week 1

Home

Data driven NFL predictions and ATS picks

www.nfeloapp.com

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@greerreNFL

3 months

The number of people believing I made up a stat called “unit” just to support Brady has left me speechless Speechless, and inspired to create a stat called unit

Robby

@greerreNFL

3 months

Some count rings, others count units 🐐

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@greerreNFL

1 year

How many times have Brady, Manning, and Mahomes gone under on their season win total? FOUR Dating back to 2003 when the database starts, these QBs played 36 seasons and ~collectively~ went under just 4 times 🐐🐐🐐

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@greerreNFL

2 years

Here we go again...

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@greerreNFL

4 months

@maestroxv_ I’m just a hobbyist sharing my opinion, which is: The Allen INTs, while not ideal from a result perspective, are vastly over emphasized, and don’t come close to negating all the other stuff he does exceptionally well

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@greerreNFL

1 year

NFL scheduling is genius Strength of team correlates with strength of schedule Bad teams get easier schedules, good teams get harder schedules This keeps the season engaging for longer

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@greerreNFL

2 years

The roar, as it turns out, has not been restored The Lions are the worst team by off/def EPA splits (not including any opp adj)

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@greerreNFL

3 months

@blueballedsport It’s not like Brady was a middling journeyman back there It’s the rings *and* the stats

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@greerreNFL

1 year

Win totals are great, but can be skewed by vig and opponent strength Using the schedule and newly released win totals for the 2023 season, we can create a more accurate view of how the market values each team Market's top 5 Teams: 1) KC 2) BUF 3) SF 4) CIN 5) PHI

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@greerreNFL

2 years

Pretty amazing

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@greerreNFL

5 months

Got asked the question "Why include YAC in a QB metric?" a lot yesterday Here's the EPA vs league average breakdown for Mahomes, Brady, Manning, and Brees Notice anything about their YAC? It's one of the feature these QBs most consistently outperformed on

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@greerreNFL

4 years

Blending together actual point differential, weighted EPA, and PFF grades together to get a sense of who played better/worse than the final score:

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@greerreNFL

3 years

There's a view that Brady was great, but lucky to win so much. Elite, but part of a system This chart does a lot for me. Throughout his career, Brady has been at his best when trailing. When bad luck or a bad gameplan got them down, Brady brought his team back better than anyone

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@greerreNFL

3 years

This was pretty fun to research and write I’m of the belief that there are no publicly known NFL trends w/ +EV If you think you have one, I’ll be happy to test it for you!

Why NFL betting models are superior to betting trends

Examining popular betting trends to explain why they are inferior to data-driven models when betting on NFL football.

www.pff.com

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@greerreNFL

5 years

Side project using @nflscrapR to weight EPA by different play types--Summary: By weighting EPA, it can be made more accurate in predicting out of sample point margin (i.e. wins) than past point margin or even #DVOA

Weighted EPA Methodology & Performance

Weighting Expected Points Added (EPA) yields a model that predicts future NFL team performance better than point differential and DVOA

www.nfeloapp.com

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@greerreNFL

2 years

New tool on nfeloapp Seasonal metrics and advanced stats for receivers

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