I must also add, this was not meant to be anti-Tua, who I think is being very under-appreciated at the moment…
While I don’t think he’s as good as the true believers, he’s a really good player and I’m sure he made what he thought was the best throw available to him
Absurd to…
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It’s 4th and 16
Would you rather complete an 8 yard pass with 0% probability of a first down
Or
Chuck it deep into the end zone and risk an INT
Congratulations, you now understand EPA, and why Allen’s 18 interceptions are not that big a deal
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Despite Allen’s 18 INTs, he cost his team less EPA and WPA on INTs per drop back than the average starter
Allen was situationally aggressive, which is exactly what you want your QB to be
Is he the best at protecting the ball? No, but in context, the INTs were not that costly
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What EPA cannot tell us is whether or not there were alternatives available
For instance, in Week 18 there was a clear 1st down in the flat that he passed up for an end zone shot that resulted in an INT
You need film to see that…but he was also 1st in PFF grading, so…
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Double clicking into the data, here's the relationship between INTs and EPA lost on INTs
QBs with the largest residual, largest INT rates, and lowest INT rates highlighted
Above the line means the INTs were less costly than expected, below the line means they more costly
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In a table, here are the top 10 QBs who had the largest positive difference between EPA lost on INTs vs league average against what we expect from their INT rate
Meaning, their INTs were situationally less costly than the overall number would suggest
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@greerreNFL
I agree that hes not bad but i don’t think miami can have real super bowl aspirations and think he’s the guy.
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@greerreNFL
i think taking a completion that has zero chance of converting is stat padding. its the same as lebron getting a layup when hes down by 3 in the final second, so that he wont risk a missed shot
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