Win totals are great, but can be skewed by vig and opponent strength
Using the schedule and newly released win totals for the 2023 season, we can create a more accurate view of how the market values each team
Market's top 5 Teams:
1) KC
2) BUF
3) SF
4) CIN
5) PHI
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In terms of predicting season performance, this approach is the best I've tested
This shows how well various pre-season rankings/metrics predict full season performance
It would be nice if the market wasn't so gd accurate at stuff
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@greerreNFL
The Giants finished the season ~25th iirc according to the betting market. Their only significant move was trading for Waller, and they jump up to 10?
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@Pavel_Vab
This is a good question
Maybe the cluster injuries at WR are playing a part here too
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@MattFtheOracle
It’s just the current win total, so I think the market is pricing in a high likelihood that he goes to the Jets
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@greerreNFL
Easy to adjust win totals + Vig = adj win totals. Circa Win totals are schedule strength adjusted.
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