On playing from behind, here are all instances since 1999 where...
QB took the field with:
‣ Under 5 minutes
‣ Down by 8 or less
‣ Win probability <50%
And left the field with:
‣ Win probability >50% on their last play OR
‣ Their team tied or took the lead
44
162
816
Replies
Table is sorted by conversion rate for QBs with a minimum of 10 conversions
3
0
19
A note on inclusion criteria
@ScottKacsmar
Tied situations with a win probability <50% are the difference between 6/10 and 11/15
To have the ball in a tie game late, with a WP <50% means you are in a pretty bad game context, which fits this analysis, but I see the error with the wording
Here is the same table w/o ties
2
2
17
1
1
4
Terribly sorry to the Bengals fans😬
I inadvertently uno reversed you*
Ty
@ScottKacsmar
for identifying the bug
* You can still use the smaller sample size "when trailing only" select criteria to claim supremacy
@ScottKacsmar
This is the correct ranking with updated logic such that ties with <50% win probability are only counted as a conversion if the lead was taken or the ending win probability increased above 50%
1
2
16
2
0
10
@greerreNFL
Does Win probability use any information about the teams or QBs involved, or just game situation?
1
0
5
@CoachSalimi
Just the game situation, no pre-game priors
Tho idk how much the priors matter to the model at that point in the game
0
0
8
1
0
3
@greerreNFL
Since 2001…
125 drives happened in NFL postseason where it was 4Q or later, less than 1 minute otc, and offense is down by 7 or less at start of drive
Avg - 40% team wins from behind
Brady - 45% win rate (5/11)
Brees - 50% win rate (3/6)
Mahomes - 100% win rate (7/7)
🐐
7
1
12
@greerreNFL
Why don’t teams always run the two minute offense? Joe essentially scoring at a 75% clip?
2
0
2
