It’s 4th and 16
Would you rather complete an 8 yard pass with 0% probability of a first down
Or
Chuck it deep into the end zone and risk an INT
Congratulations, you now understand EPA, and why Allen’s 18 interceptions are not that big a deal
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Despite Allen’s 18 INTs, he cost his team less EPA and WPA on INTs per drop back than the average starter
Allen was situationally aggressive, which is exactly what you want your QB to be
Is he the best at protecting the ball? No, but in context, the INTs were not that costly
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What EPA cannot tell us is whether or not there were alternatives available
For instance, in Week 18 there was a clear 1st down in the flat that he passed up for an end zone shot that resulted in an INT
You need film to see that…but he was also 1st in PFF grading, so…
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I must also add, this was not meant to be anti-Tua, who I think is being very under-appreciated at the moment…
While I don’t think he’s as good as the true believers, he’s a really good player and I’m sure he made what he thought was the best throw available to him
Absurd to…
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Double clicking into the data, here's the relationship between INTs and EPA lost on INTs
QBs with the largest residual, largest INT rates, and lowest INT rates highlighted
Above the line means the INTs were less costly than expected, below the line means they more costly
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In a table, here are the top 10 QBs who had the largest positive difference between EPA lost on INTs vs league average against what we expect from their INT rate
Meaning, their INTs were situationally less costly than the overall number would suggest
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@LaBen_27
Per drop back, Allen cost his team less in EPA and WPA on INTs than the average starter
The number of INTs thrown matters much less than when those INTs are thrown
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@schwartzsteins
Lol this was just meant to be a pro-Allen tweet and I’m realizing now it’s very anti-Tua
My bad
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@greerreNFL
In case you hadn’t seen Although this was going into Week 18
One of my favorite visuals of the year. Interception Impact! An INT on 3rd and 20 isn't the same as one on 1st and Goal. It is okay to be more aggressive in bad situations! First Graph EPA Lost, Second Graph Winning % Lost.
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@greerreNFL
Did that interception cost the offense a field goal? Did it affect field position for the defense? Were their points off those turnovers?
Ngl, this feels a lot like goal post moving. Seems like media/analysts are trying to find a way to turn Allen’s turnovers into a positive.
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@maestroxv_
I’m just a hobbyist sharing my opinion, which is:
The Allen INTs, while not ideal from a result perspective, are vastly over emphasized, and don’t come close to negating all the other stuff he does exceptionally well
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@greerreNFL
Agree with 1st part but not like all 18 Josh Allen INTs were from Hail Mary throws
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@Humbleobserver8
For sure. The broader point is that all plays occur in a context, which EPA helps us understand
Risk taking is not a bad thing if the situation calls for it
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@philly9986
Exactly
In a table, here are the top 10 QBs who had the largest positive difference between EPA lost on INTs vs league average against what we expect from their INT rate
Meaning, their INTs were situationally less costly than the overall number would suggest
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@greerreNFL
Why is the team going for it on 4 and 16 anyway?? Why not punt and try to pin them inside the 10? Instead of giving them the ball on the 20. This situation makes no sense. What is the game situation? 1st quarter or last minute of the game?
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@dtgordo
The Dolphins had just thrown an 8 yard completion on 4th and 16 to the end the game
This is meant to be an illustrative example of how high level stats (in this case a completion vs a hypothetical int) do not give the whole context
EPA strives to do this
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