‘22 Herbert highlights the biggest limitation of EPA as a QB stat No counterfactual When no one’s open downfield and Herbert navigates a broken pocket to avoid a sack and hit a check down for a gain of 2…he gets negative EPA EPA has no context for what an avg QB would do Tweet added by Robby @greerreNFL

Robby

2 years

‘22 Herbert highlights the biggest limitation of EPA as a QB stat No counterfactual When no one’s open downfield and Herbert navigates a broken pocket to avoid a sack and hit a check down for a gain of 2…he gets negative EPA EPA has no context for what an avg QB would do

Steven Ruiz

@theStevenRuiz

2 years

Think about how well Herbert is playing tonight. This is his epa.

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7

211

9

14

174

Robby

@greerreNFL

2 years

For the record, this is not a shot at EPA, which is better than a lot of other, more commonly used, stats

What are the best metrics for NFL Quarterbacks

A deep dive into the relative predictiveness of quarterback metrics like EPA, ANY/A, QBR, and PFF Grades, to determine which is the best for measuring the performance of NFL QBs.

www.nfeloapp.com

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Benjamin Robinson

@benj_robinson

2 years

@greerreNFL I still think people are focusing more on the numerator here than the denominator, though. 50 dropbacks is a lot!

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Robby

@greerreNFL

2 years

@benj_robinson True, tho that total EPA still isn’t as awesome as the performance

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Kevin Cole

@KevinCole___

2 years

@greerreNFL Aren't all of his passing efficiency stats bad? Not sure why EPA is called out so much

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Robby

@greerreNFL

2 years

@KevinColePFF All passing efficiency stats are bad, yes 😂 I suppose lack of counterfactual is the fundamental limitation of all individual stats in a team sport

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Kyle Kennedy, CSCS

@kennedyk24

2 years

@greerreNFL But what you're describing isn't a productive play. That's a good pff grade for a 2 yd play but it's still a 2yd play. Is it not?

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Robby

@greerreNFL

2 years

@kennedyk24 Ah yes, but if the average QB would have lost 0.10 in your circumstances, and you had an EPA of +0.10, are you an average QB or one of the best in the league?

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Roo 🏈🎾🇺🇲🇺🇦🇹🇼

@R00349

2 years

@greerreNFL I really like the idea of a QBs decision xEPA. Where given the routes the receivers ran and the coverages on those recievers. What's the optimal pass that QB could have made vs what's the pass he did make, and what's the expected difference between those results.

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Robby

@greerreNFL

2 years

@R00349 Release the dots, as they say

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Pup Jo

@PupJo3

2 years

@greerreNFL Weird how that has been a flaw for dozens of QBs over the years but now it’s an issue because it relates to Justin Herbert

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Robby

@greerreNFL

2 years

@PupJo3 I don’t think it’s an issue, just a limitation to be aware of when using it (or any other stat) to analyze an individual player EPA is one of the best widely available metrics we have

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Sam Hoppen

@SamHoppen

2 years

@greerreNFL I agree with your main point, but I also do think there’s something to be said about a QB being able to maintain a positive EPA on that much volume. As always, it requires context, but I still think EPA is valuable as a QB evaluation metric.

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ian

@ian_sportsdev

2 years

@greerreNFL Maybe you could use pff grades to adjust for teammates

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Jacob Nelson

@Jake2jaak

2 years

@greerreNFL EPA is an offense productivity/efficiency stat. QB is the biggest single component but scheme/play calling/OL/Receivers all impact EPA as well. I wouldn't say that QB impacts EPA more than the aggregate of those other components

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