nfelo has been updated for the 2023 season
This uses the new QB model and introduces Win Total ratings as part of the ensemble that sets pre-season ratings (very small improvements)
The QB ranking and Power Ranking pages will update after week 1
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The QB model is a replication (with some improvements) of 538s original QB Elo, which may or may not be disappearing this season
It is done
QB Elo model re-written (w/ some improvements) and pipelines created to have this run each week w/ just a bit of manual work for updating starters
Next step is to turn it into a repo where the CSV can be shared in the same format as the original 538 file
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Win Total ratings are power rankings based on pre season win totals
They add accuracy to the underlying model, but as a market based signal, do very little to ATS performance or regressed model accuracy
This shows how well various pre-season rankings/metrics predict full season performance
It would be nice if the market wasn't so gd accurate at stuff
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As with previous seasons, week 1 has lots of large disagreements w/ the market
Efficient market purists will tell you this is dumb, but it’s quite standard for this particular model
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Sadly I found a bug in how the WT ratings were used to set week 1 lines!
This will be fixed this evening
(Tho large disagreements will continue)
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@greerreNFL
Thx! Good luck with your superb work! If you don't mind, refresh my memory: The NFELO rating includes the QB adjustment shown - or not? Thanks.
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