Before the invasion 🇷🇺 concentrated these landing ships in the Black Sea, and the intention was probably to conduct amphibious landings in the direction of Odesa 🇺🇦. That didn’t work, and now the ships one after the other are meeting a different fate.
This tweet from Chancellor Scholz - the only “personal” picture from Vilnius on his Twitter feed - tells a lot about how Germany positions itself in the NATO environment
This past week marked my last day at
@NATO
after six fantastic years as Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment and my first day at
@ecfr
as a Distinguished Policy Fellow
Kaja Kallas, the current prime minister of Estonia, has won the backing of the United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom to become the next secretary general of NATO, becoming the first woman and the first from CEE to lead the alliance.
NATO’s newest Ally Finland 🇫🇮 grabs the gold in sniper competition
25 Allies and partners took part in the annual European Best Sniper Competition, testing their ability to use stealth, camouflage, and reconnaissance skills to take down their simulated targets
Ceci fait partie d’une campagne russe organisée et délibérée d’intimidation et de déstabilisation.
@BFMTV
@LCI
et les autres chaînes d’info doivent intégrer ce contexte
This is a truly historical speech by
@EmmanuelMacron
at the
@GLOBSEC
Bratislava Forum extremely clear on Ukraine, NATO and the profound transformation of European security; with the right words for Central Europe (including on French past mistakes) and high ambitions for Europe.
🇨🇭denying reexport of equipment to Ukraine is based on an strict interpretation of neutrality but is odd. 🇨🇭 can decide not to export itself but repeatedly denying others the option to do so is crossing a line that will complicate future armament cooperation with 🇨🇭
"Switzerland has vetoed a plan to export nearly 100 mothballed Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine, citing neutrality laws for a decision made just as Kyiv’s counteroffensive enters a decisive phase."
@RikeFranke
The debate is a classic (wheels versus tracks, German heavy versus French light cavalry); bottom line: it is a light tank designed for tank warfare against soviet tanks and will be helpful for Ukraine. It also helps advance the debate on (imaginary) redlines on weapon deliveries.
Dear
@LianaFix
Fair to criticise Paris for the volume of support to Ukraine, but Macron’s shift since 2023 is genuine, significative, consistent and not driven by domestic politics (lots of criticisms). It is his own candid (and somber) assessment of what is at stake for Europe.
This may be an unpopular opinion as everyone is so excited about Macron. But his new rhetoric, the squabbles with Berlin, are just political games Paris and Berlin are playing about leadership in Europe. There is little in it for Ukraine - or has Macron suddenly doubled support?
Une mise au point nécessaire après les propos d’un ancien président à la dérive dont on peine à comprendre la motivation (pour rester bienveillant). Ne pas laisser au peuple ukrainien le droit de choisir son destin n’est ni gaulliste ni français.
Finland is a net security provider to the Alliance (and not a free rider), it brings to the Northern flank of NATO substantial and capable combat forces, 🇫🇮 being possibly the only country in Europe that never renounced maintaining a robust territorial defense 2/
THREAD After a long and painful debate, the German decision unlocks not only the delivery of 14 German Leopard 2 but also the potential delivery within a few months of 100-120 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine by a variety of NATO Allies. 1/
Interesting development: A Paris conference at the level of Heads of State and Government this Monday to take a leap forward in the support to Ukraine, maybe the ambitious joint initiative many (including yours truly) wanted to see in Munich?
Big meeting in Paris next Monday (26 February): Macron will host "several heads of state and government" for a conference on supporting Ukraine, and called for a "collective leap forwards".
#Finland
🇫🇮 will become the 31st member of NATO tomorrow, immediately preceding a two-day meeting of Allied Foreign Ministers. “It will be a good day for Finland’s security, for Nordic security and for
#NATO
as a whole.” - SG
@jensstoltenberg
ℹ️ :
The AMX-10 RC is a light panzer hunter with a 105 mm gun, precisely designed against the type of tanks the Russian are now fielding in Ukraine (T-62, T-72), it does not have the armour of a heavy battle-tank but is supposed to compensate with speed and mobility.
@MichaelaWiegel
Deswegen stand in dem vorherigen Tweet ja auch „unter bestimmten Bedingungen“ Panzerjagd. Weiß nur nicht, ob diese Bedingungen mit russischen Panzern gegeben sind. Aber dazu haben sich ja
@markus_meyer73
und
@KampfmitKette
schon geäußert
Incompréhension manifeste du fonctionnement de l’Otan (règle du consensus) et usage abusif d’un précédent historique, et comme disait Marx: « la première fois, on fait l’histoire, la seconde, c’est une farce »
🗣️ En dehors du temps de guerre
@sebchenu
explique vouloir sortir du commandement de l'OTAN. Car selon lui, "il faut garder nous-même une dimension d'indépendance en ce qui concerne notre défense nationale".
La fin de l'année approche et j'en parle dans l'épisode de ce matin donc c'est le moment de l'annoncer ici : pour la faire courte, le Collimateur va quitter l'IRSEM dans les semaines qui viennent et devenir indépendant.
(la version longue ensuite pour ceux que ça intéresse 👇)
Biden sets the US line for the
#NATOVilniusSummit
with regard to Ukrainian membership, a bit too constrained in my view but there is room for substantial progress towards membership within those parameters, stay tuned!
EXCLUSIVE: Biden says Ukraine is not yet ready for NATO membership, saying the war with Russia must end before the alliance can consider adding Kyiv to its ranks.
2 ans après le début de la guerre d’agression par la
#Russie
, la France marque ce soir son soutien au peuple ukrainien et aux principes du droit international.
#StandWithUkraine
📸 : Judith Litvine / MEAE
Clear message to the “China-firsters” in the Republican Party, Trump is not only an issue for the European Allies but also for the US commitment to Asian security.
Very interesting set of data regarding assistance to Ukraine from the
@kiehlinstitute
“Ukraine Support Tracker” with a gradual shift from 🇺🇸 to 🇪🇺 , a growing role for 🇩🇪 , these trends demonstrate that the debate in the US as in Europe is too often poorly informed
📢 New update of our Ukraine Support Tracker. The big news: Europe overtakes the US by a large margin (total EU now 2x US). If we add UK, NOR, CH, then US commitments are only 45% of Europe’s (€70 bn vs €156 bn). This is a major shift compared to first year of war. A thread 1/7
The French Senate ratified last Friday the accession protocols allowing Finland and Sweden to join NATO by an overwhelming majority (323 for, 17 against - far right and far left - and 8 abstained). National Assembly vote expected in the coming days.
EU Ambassador to Russia Roland Galharague laid flowers at the Solovetsky Stone, a monument in Moscow to the victims of political repression, in memory of Alexei Navalny
Photo:
@novayagazeta_en
Pour tous ceux qui citent “le général” sans connaître la fermeté de ses positions dans les crises de la Guerre froide, une petite archive
@Inafr_officiel
: “1961 : De Gaulle prône la manière forte face aux soviétiques” | Archive INA
Honored to receive on
#IWD2020
the
@NATO
Gender Integration Award from
@Mircea_Geoana
for the work of the Defence Investment division on gender issues. Thanks to
@NATO1325
for this nice recognition of a great team effort.
One point to add to
@Mathieu_Droin
excellent summary, responding to a question about the European dimension of the French nuclear deterrent
@EmmanuelMacron
stated “our vital interests are partially European, and it does give us a special responsibility”
Important speech by Emmanuel Macron on European Defense, as he visits Sweden🇸🇪.
A clear call for Europeans to ramp up their whole defense effort and support for Ukraine🇺🇦, “at whatever cost” and “whatever🇺🇸 decisions”.
Main takeaways 🧵 1/7
My
@ecfr
Commentary on the ammunition challenge for the Europeans with 10 concrete proposals: some underway that need to be bolstered, some under consideration that need to be implemented and some additional ones that need to be seriously evaluated.
The French Ministère des Armées just released a full list of equipment provided to Ukraine since the start of the 2022 Russian invasion:
Armored vehicles
• AMX-10 RC: 38
• VAB: 250
Artillery
• TRF1: 6 cannons
• Caesar cannons: 30
• LRU: 4
• 120 mm mortars: 10
“France’s Call for Stronger Europe Finally Gains Traction” the debates on the future of European defence, EU and NATO in a good
@VOANews
paper with my comments
Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West – and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin.
That the war is unwinnable due to Russia’s dominance is a Kremlin information operation & a glimpse into Russia's real strategy & only hope of success.🧵
SACT Gen Lavigne
@NATO_ACT
opens the 2021 NATO-Industry Forum
#NIF
that brings together leaders in defence and tech industry with the civilian and military leadership for two days of debates on technology, capabilities and preparing the future of
#NATO
in Rome
Rapid Air Mobility will facilitate and speed airlift during the
#COVID19
crisis. Proud to have developed this
@NATO
process with
@eurocontrolDG
and to see its first implementation today.
[NEW] Foreign ministers discussed measures to combat the
#COVID19
crisis.
We'll be implementing Rapid Air Mobility: simplified procedures, in coordination w/
@eurocontrol
, using the
@NATO
call sign for military relief flights to speed up mutual assistance.
There happens to be about a million Ukrainian refugees in Poland (for a country with 10 percent of the US population). I have heard Lindsey Graham more inspired when he was friends with John Mc Cain… another era.
“To the Prime Minister of Poland: I could care less what you think”
Lindsey Graham lashed out at the Polish PM, for criticizing Senate Republicans blocking aid for Ukraine.
Fascinating and not a good sign for Russia: Putin jails scientists involved in hypersonic research to blame them for compromising the « invincible » Kinzhal (suggesting that poor performance against UKR air and missile defence is a consequence of scientific information sharing)
Alors que l'Ukraine parvient sans peine à intercepter les missiles hypersoniques Kinzhal, que Poutine lui-même avait présenté comme "invincibles", la Russie annonce se venger de cet affront... en s'en prenant à ses propres scientifiques. Trois d'entre eux ont été emprisonnés.⤵️…
I wrote a long piece on European security. It’s a reflection on themes at Munich—Russia-Ukr & Trump anxieties—and on what it’d take for Europe to be self-sufficient in defence. It also draws from our interview with Boris Pistorius, more on which later.
Ma tribune dans
@lemondefr
, sur l’adhésion de l’Ukraine à l’Otan, la transformation des termes du débat, les alternatives pour conclure que des progrès substantiels sont souhaitables lors du Sommet de Vilnius.
#NATOSummit
Hurrah for my dear friend and former
@NATO
colleague
@Braze_Baiba
who is going to be a great leader for Latvian diplomacy and in the European foreign and security debate!
Today, on 19 April, the Saeima has expressed confidence in
@Braze_Baiba
as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia 🇱🇻
Warm congratulations and best of luck representing Latvia's interests internationally!
➡️
Finland also brings to the Alliance a deep and balanced understanding of Russia. Its accession is a major strategic failure (of his own making) of President Putin who by invading Ukraine triggered a debate in Helsinki and Stockholm that was moving slowly beforehand 4/
The first
@NATO
Rapid Air Mobility
#RAM
flight took place today (a Turkish A400M from Turkey to the UK), only days after the decision to implement RAM was taken in the context of the
#COVID
ー19 crisis
The Rapid Air Mobility initiative simplified procedures for military relief flights, by using a NATO call sign to expedite Air Traffic Control clearances. The initiative is possible with close cooperation between
@NATO
&
@eurocontrol
.
#StrongerTogether
This process will not be fully completed when Sweden 🇸🇪 joins Finland in NATO. 🇹🇷 and 🇭🇺 should put aside bilateral disputes and recognise that exceptional times require a fast track enabling 🇸🇪 to join as NATO 32nd Ally no later than by the Vilnius Summit. END/
1/5 Why did Macron change its public stance on Russia? A net assessment based on 4 reasons.
1. He was mugged by reality. The fact is that Putin lied to him, proved deaf to attempts to how goodwill, while Russia doubled down on aggression.
Fascinating how Putin in the purest Orwellian style criticises Ukraine for targeting civilians and enlisting the youth. “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.” As Orwell puts it “he perceived that if you want to keep a secret you must also hide from yourself”.
Emmanuel Macron announces a 413 billion euros defence effort for the next 7-year procurement cycle 2024-2030 a significant increase compared to the previous cycle (295 B€). Stay tuned for more details about priorities and breakout year by year.
I believe it is a mistake to approach this as extended deterrence minus. More useful to try to develop a new and expanded role for 🇬🇧 and 🇫🇷 nuclear forces to complement, strengthen, and, in a worse case, fill in for the 🇺🇸 extended deterrent. But it will be quite different.
Btw as you know far better than I, neither the contemporary British nor French deterrents are designed for heavier extended deterrence duty. They’re designed to supplement the core U.S. one. 3/
Excellent thread by my
@ecfr
colleague
@GresselGustav
on the massive missed opportunity to do the right thing at the right time as the Leopard debate continues.
1/ While 🇩🇪 defence minister did not say no yesterday, rather not yet, I think the
#Leopard
Plan as we conceived it in September 4
@ecfr
is dead.
Why? A longer thread.
Visite du Réseau Nucléaire et Stratégie – Nouvelle Génération au siège de l’OTAN accompagné par M.
@BrunoTertrais
pour une série de rencontres avec des officiels de l’
#OTAN
sur les enjeux du nucléaire au sein de l’Alliance.
Gen Luciano Portolano welcomes participants at the NATO Industry Forum in Rome, Italy is a great partner and fantastic host for the 2021
#NIF
Thanks to
@ItalyatNATO
and the Italian MoD for their support.
I wouldn't be surprised if the French delegation to NATO were to draft a STANAG (standardisation agreement) to ensure full baguette interoperability between French, US and British carrier forces
@camille_grand
@FranceOTAN
@MarineNationale
NEW: “Days and weeks, not months and years” says EU Council President Michel on the timeline of the decision by EU countries to provide air defence systems to Ukraine at the Brussels
#EUCO
.
I am deeply concerned about the current state of the German (and European) defense industry. I fear that if there is no significant change in how Germany addresses this industrial actor, it may enter a death spiral. 1/7
Il y a 100 ans, Raymond Poincaré présentait à Darney le drapeau aux légions tchécoslovaques venues combattre aux côtés de la France, combattre pour leur liberté.
🇫🇮 accession also closes a gap in the North for NATO enabling better defense of the Baltic region and High North, this is also true in the Integrated Air and Missile Defense domain 3/
Excellent conversation on the challenges facing the transatlantic community in the cyber and tech domains with
@KlyngeC
during
#CYBERSEC
Cyber defence is an absolute priority for
@NATO
in a contested cyber environment. Working with Allies, partners and the private sector is key.
Must read! "The second year of Russia’s war: Scenarios for the Ukraine conflict in 2023"
Important, well-informed, honest and sobering paper by the excellent
@GresselGustav
@ecfr
@ECFRBerlin
via
@ecfr
« Russia is working to subvert French support for Ukraine », hardly a surprise but a lot of evidence in this remarkable
@CatherineBelton
reporting for
@wapo
UI had the great honor to host a round table discussion on European security politics with
@emmanuelmacron
, HM The King,
@swedishPM
and several ministers and experts from Sweden and France! 🇫🇷🇸🇪🇪🇺
More information in Swedish 👉
Impressive series of speeches at
#MSC2021
special event with leaders converging in a call for strong transatlantic cooperation. Kudos to
@ischinger
and the
@MunSecConf
theme for pulling together such a unique conversation.