In my view this has held up rather well, so I’m reposting it because it’s still one of my favourite pieces of writing.
A Millennial Considers the New German Problem After 30 Years of Peace
This is so unbearably tone-deaf. “There is war in Europe” - so I am standing in the middle of new year’s fireworks going off. Boom.
“There is war in Europe … for me this meant meeting some great people”.
Have they lost their mind in Berlin?
I cannot believe that 9months into this war I have to listen to a German journalist monologuing how “we need to negotiate,weapons deliveries are important but we need to give diplomacy a chance” and he doesn’t get ONE QUESTION as to who he thinks should negotiate & about what?!🤯
New survey from Austria
“If Austria were to be attacked militarily, should other EU member states support Austria militarily?”
72,28% say yes.
“Should Austria, in the case of an armed attack on an EU member state, support this state with armed troops?”
13,58% say yes.
Three politicians, from SPD, FDP and Greens have written a
@derspiegel
oped, calling for more weapons for Ukraine. Importantly they clearly state that European and German security is being defended by Ukraine, that the Bundeswehr… (1)
“Should Germany deliver heavy weapons to Ukraine?”
Fascinating results:
- Green supporters are *most in favour*.
- SPD supporters in favour despite Olaf Scholz’s refusal.
- And AFD is AFD.
Quite a shocking read.
“As their profits have grown, Greece has lobbied successfully to dilute sanctions on Russian oil. A merchant navy, run by a small group of Western oligarchs, keeps money flowing into Putin’s regime.”
Chief of the defence staff admits mistakes of French intelligence:
«The Americans said the Russians were going to attack, they were right. Our services thought that the conquest of Ukraine would have monstrous costs and that the Russians had other options»
It’s crazy to me how little Germany seems to care about the political situation in France at the moment. We follow every detail of primaries in random US states but I doubt many Germans would know what’s going on in France right now.
Yes and yes
“if it is true that peace in Europe is essentially due to nuclear weapons and the Americans, then that would mean that the whole cozy pacifist lifestyle was only possible because hawks were watching over it all the time.”
It really annoys me that two months into the war there are still people in the German debate who argue that those who support weapons deliveries are “for war” or “for escalation “ or “against diplomacy”.
“EU truckers, who drive 85 per cent of the lorries that cross the Channel, are increasingly reluctant to take work in the UK to avoid day-long traffic jams in Kent where there are limited washing and toilet facilities for stranded drivers”
#Brexit
Most of the time when there are political communication disasters, one can see the intention (which went wrong). But this, from the setting, to the text and message, to the sound, is a catastrophe. With no good will can I come up with what they were trying to achieve.
#Lambrecht
So to summarise, there are tanks that are tanks and there are tanks that are not tanks, and some tanks are tanks according to an official document and some tanks are not tanks according to the annex of that document and another document says no one knows what a tank is anyway.
In case you want to know how Brexit is seen abroad - our local newspaper has a whole page special on how nothing, but really nothing, has gotten better and how policy areas from migration, Northern Ireland, Franco-British relations etc have gotten worse.
When I did an internship at the German embassy in DC, whenever we had a guest, we would go over to the French embassy, because they had the good food 😂 (and small bottles of wine for lunch. 🇫🇷)
“French experts expressed surprise that the transfer of geospatial data to Ukraine in case of a delivery of Taurus missiles is presented as problematic by the German government. Ukraine already has all the relevant geodata & extremely agile programmers”
To the “it was all brilliant strategy and you experts should just not have talked about it and criticised Scholz so much” crowd: what he’s doing is literally what we had asked for. How was taking 4 days longer and collecting loads of international criticism a clever strategy?
And then of course the punchline: you arrive in this country that cares oh so much about Corona, only to be greeted by masses of people without masks.
(Rant end)
The Ukrainian ammunition shortage is among the most disheartening - because most avoidable - problems in Ukraine. At the beginning of the war, many experts said “let’s produce now, even if Ukraine might not need it, we will anyway!” - and we did not.
“Ukraine went from firing 8,000 shells per day during its counteroffensive in the summer to just 2,000 in recent weeks, according to a platoon commander.”
Ukraine war is ‘battle for ammunition’, says Nato chief via
@FT
Dear French voters, I recently made a very cute, very tiny French person who however is still too tiny to vote today. Could you please cast a Macron vote for him?
Merci, dit le bébé 👶
#presidentielles2022
#Elections2022
I read Germany’s new national security strategy so you don’t have to.
(Though, it’s not a terrible read, so don’t let me keep you).
Thread with some thoughts and main points according to, well, me.
#Sicherheitsstrategie
👇
Germans do no longer understand the idea of deterrence. Nor the idea of military power being an element of geopolitical power. For most Germans, military = war and aggression.
Maybe it is time for Germans (and others) to work out that if you are "anti-war", you should help Ukraine deter Russia. Refusal to do so is, in practice, "pro-war." It increases the chance of invasion.
This is BAD. And it doesn’t matter how you feel about Musk - no individual should have this power.
“At one point, he denied the Ukrainian military’s request to turn on Starlink near Crimea, the Russian-controlled territory, affecting battlefield strategy.”
😆😆
The German Foreign Office just posted this on Instagram: "to be on the safe side, we have already reserved a seat in the negotiating chamber [of the UN Security Council]"
#GermanHandtuch
In Germany we’ve forgotten what military power is for (spoiler: not for invading neighbours, starting world wars) we’ve forgotten how geopolitical power works and have put the military in the “Schmuddelkinderecke”(see it as inherently negative).
That’s coming back to haunt us now
You know the feeling, when there is an idea, and article you just *have* to write?
Well, this is mine. This article has been in the making for over a year, and I am so, so, so, so excited that
@WarOnTheRocks
has agreed to publish it.
A German friend, but who hasn’t lived in Germany for ages and only loosely follows DE politics messaged me “what the hell is Merz doing?! This is gonna end badly.”
This is someone who is *definitely* not part of a left-green bubble.
How does CDU not see what they are doing?!
Holy 😳🥹🤯!
This video by the Ukrainian Defence Ministry - using the music of a very popular add from a German supermarket from a few years back (“Supergeil” - “extremely cool”) - is really quite something.
A thank you for the IRIS-T defence system, and a demand for Leopards.
The more relevant announcement by Macron, in my view:
“The policy shift signals France will lift its objections to using shared EU funds to buy artillery from suppliers outside the bloc, unlocking hundreds of millions of euros in additional finance.“
German defence minister Boris Pistorius is now 100 days in office - and the most popular member of the government cabinet! Quite the achievement for a German defence minister.
New study shows that most western companies continue to do business in Russia.
Of formerly 371 German companies, 262 are still in Russia – and have paid 402 Million USD in taxes. That’s the second highest number, after US companies.
Of - fucking - course diplomacy is important and of - fucking - course it would be better to talk rather than fight but who does he think could make this happen? Unbelievable that these banal and trite statements don’t get pushback.
I’ve written before about the hubris some Germans are deriving from the German experience of war - and the coming to terms with their country’s crimes - but this is really quite unsettling. Lecturing the ambassador of a country AT WAR. 😳
Ein Nachfahre der Täter belehrt einen Nachfahren der Opfer und Vertreter einer Nation unter Bomben und stützt sich dabei AUF DIE WELTKRIEGSERFAHRUNG IN SEINER EIGENEN TÄTERFAMILIE. „Bleiben Sie mal beim Zuhören…“.
Important press release by the President of the Republic of Finland.
“It is likely that the damage to both the gas pipeline and the data cable is caused by external activity. What specifically caused the damage is not yet known.”
Die Feinde der Demokratie werden sich über diese unfassbaren Bilder aus
#WashingtonDC
freuen. Aus aufrührerischen Worten werden gewaltsame Taten - auf den Stufen des Reichstages, und jetzt im
#Capitol
. Die Verachtung demokratischer Institutionen hat verheerende Auswirkungen. (1)
These 20+ highly educated people write some 600 or so words to say nothing else than “well this war really should end, and the west should push for negotiations”.
How? No idea.
Super helpful, thanks.
Looks like this is the biggest Ukrainian
#drone
attack on Russian territory since the beginning of the war. Airports closed, air fields and aircraft damaged or destroyed.
Russia-Ukraine war live: airbase hit as six Russian regions report attacks
It is my job to explain the German position to the outside world (and to explain the outside world’s views to Germans).
But I am increasingly feeling like Frank here: frustrated about having to come up with reasons for my government’s policies as Scholz doesn’t explain anything.
Ich hab, ehrlich gesagt, keine Lust mehr, "Scholz' Kalkül" zu ergründen. Natürlich verstehe ich gut, dass er nicht jeden Entscheidungsschritt öffentlich ausbuchstabieren will (kann! - weil... 👂🇷🇺👀). Aber inzwischen ist das Kommunikationsdebakel einfach des größere Problem.
I seriously think these letters only exist so that their authors can say “but *I* have been calling for peace the whole time!”. Washing their hands of responsibility while contributing exactly nothing.
On 27 February, Olaf Scholz held his famous
#Zeitenwende
speech. More than ten months have passed since then. What’s the verdict? Have times turned in German defence and security policy? My assessment of where we are at the moment - the good, the bad, and the ugly.
(thread)
“Mr Scholz certainly has come a long way since the eve of Russia’s invasion, when his government offered Ukraine 5000 helmets and a field hospital. But it took months and the threat of a parliamentary vote before he approved any shipments of heavy weapons”
I must admit I don’t really get this.
(Also, as a Brit I would be a bit vexed. Turns out they aren’t partner enough to make a difference to Scholz’s ‘only with partners’ mantra)
Massively insightful listening to German radio right now where listeners call in to talk about Russia, Ukraine, arms exports.
"We shouldn't pour oil into the fire", descalation needed, "we shouldn't threaten Russia" etc.
…should/can accept some deficits and lack of equipment to equip Ukraine faster, and they argue for more/more strategic armament industry development in Germany.
Looks like the German debate is moving forward after all.
Which country is the most influential in Europe?
Germans say
Germany: 76%
France: 9%
UK: 6%
French
Germany: 72%
France: 19%
UK: 4%
US
UK: 52% (!)
Germany: 27%
France/Italy: 6%
That's... odd?
British transport aircraft ferrying anti-armour weaponry to Ukraine is actively (?) avoiding German air space. Wonder what the reason is.
In four months, the German public debate on defence went from ‘we couldn’t care less, all weapons are evil’ to ‘aCtUAlly that’s not a tank it’s an Autonomes Flugabwehrgeschütz auf Selbstfahrlafette’
Good!
“Our Eastern European neighbors have warned us again & again. On this we in Germany must reflect self-critically. All my life, I had never imagined that there would be such a war of aggression in our immediate neighborhood again” - Baerbock
Here I was, thinking that the German drone debate showed how little the German commentariat and political realm understood defence policy and technology. And then came the German debate over missile defence 😳🤯
*Professional news*
I am very excited to announce that on 1 June I joined
@ECFRParis
, in, well, Paris!
I’ll continue working on European defence questions, new military technology, and even more Franco-German relations.
Some great illustrations by
@derspiegel
(with
@IISS_org
data) on the difference between the Bundeswehr’s situation in 1989 and now.
(And no, we don’t need to go back to 1989 armament levels. But shows just how much Bundeswehr has shrunk)
👀
"There were good reasons why the Germans became pacifists. But the times have changed so radically that it would be criminal if we didn't adapt to them," says former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer. A "massive rearmament" is therefore "a must".
What the what?! 😳
“By simply searching online for terms publicly known to be associated with nuclear weapons, Bellingcat was able to discover cards used by military personnel serving at all six European military bases reported to store nuclear devices.“
If confirmed, what a blow* to UN legitimacy and acceptance. Which is bad news for literally everyone on the planet.
*A deserved blow to be clear. What a scandal.
Beneath UNRWA’s Gaza Strip headquarters, the IDF has uncovered one of Hamas’s most significant and top secret assets: a subterranean data center used by the terror group for intelligence and communications.
The terror group built the server farm, complete with an electrical room…
The German ZEIT has published an *absolutely scathing* report on the German political failure around the Afghanistan withdrawal. The journalists went to heaps of internal docs and mails, showing how almost all parts of the German secdef apparatus failed.
Former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany has been appointed Deputy Foreign Minister.
He ruffled *a lot* of feathers in Berlin and I had many discussions over whether he did his job particularly well, or particularly badly (my vote was on the former, but man, some ppl were pissed).
Extremely Thankful to My President
@ZelenskyyUa
, Minister
@DmytroKuleba
& the 🇺🇦 Government for Your Trust to Appoint Me As Deputy Foreign Minister 🙏🏻It Is a Great Honour & Huge Responsibility to Serve My Country in This New Capacity💪
And Now:
Let’s Get Ready to Rumble 🥊🥊🥊
“A French official told POLITICO that Paris is turning the screws on Germany in the hope of extracting an agreement from Berlin to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine ahead of a Franco-German summit on January 22”
As I am preparing the birthday cake for my 2-year-old for tomorrow, I keep thinking about the Ukrainian children born in that night, in bomb shelters, and the kids born since, who have known nothing but this war.
May the next years be more peaceful, just, and lived in freedom.