Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Gustav C. Gressel

@GresselGustav

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Senior policy fellow @ECFRWiderEurope @ECFR , PhD, specialised on security, defence, military | NATO, EU, Eastern Europe

Berlin, Deutschland

Joined March 2014

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

3 months

I sense a lot of doom and gloom mode regarding the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war now. But the West has still agency in the war. It can turn things around. But it needs to decide fast on taining, military procurement, and ammunition production. My 3 scenarios for 2024: @ecfr

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Ukraine’s survival: Three scenarios for the war in 2024

Russia has gained the upper hand in its war on Ukraine. To reverse Moscow’s progress, the West will need to invest more in supporting Kyiv. With this in mind, here are three scenarios for what could...

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

Leaving Kyiv. A lot of interesting talk. Surprise fact: on military needs crucial for the war effort, the top item on 🇺🇦 soldiers' demand list is this 👇

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

1/ As 🇷🇺 missiles rain down on civilian targets all over 🇺🇦, I get questions what to do now. Some thoughts as a former air defence officer on this. But beware, information about the attacks is limited, and I would not say it is over yet. Air alarms are still ongoing.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

I am very happy the #EuropeanParliament has adopted a resolution calling for joint 🇪🇺 #Leopard deliveries. Ukraine needs them dearly and fast.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Again, Ukrainian defences seem to have consolidated over night. No withdrawal. The resistance they put up is heroic to say the least. Under these difficult circumstances. Wow. But expect a very, very difficult day.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

Wenn ich noch einmal "aber die Ukraine ist ein korrupter Staat" höre...

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Finanzbeamtin verbrennt Steuererklärung von Schwesigs Klimastiftung

Im Streit um die umstrittene Klimastiftung in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern wird nun auch Fehlverhalten der Finanzbehörden offenbar.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

First indication we are getting closer to the climax of the Donbas offensive. 🇷🇺 would then want a tactical truce to resupply and regroup, resuming the offensive later. I hope no one falls for this.

@tassagency_en

TASS

2 years

Russia is open for talks with Ukraine and signing agreements that would lead to peace, speaker of Russia’s Federation Council (upper parliament house) Valentina Matviyenko said at a meeting with Mozambique’s President Filipe Nyusi:

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Finally, there are also positive surprises comming out of Berlin, and this one is huge. @Bundeskanzler announced 🇺🇦 will get #IrisT -SLM air defence missile. Why is this so impiortant?

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Ukraine-Krieg: Merz und Scholz streiten über Waffenlieferungen

Am Sonntag sah es noch nach großer Einigkeit in der Verteidigungspolitik aus. Am Mittwoch schlagen Scholz und Merz im Bundestag aufeinander ein, als gäbe es kein Gestern und kein Morgen.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

10 months

Sicherheitsschmarotzer.

@karlnehammer

Karl Nehammer

10 months

Für uns als neutrale Staaten ist klar: Wir werden uns nicht an Sicherheitszusagen zur langfristigen Verteidigung der Ukraine beteiligen. Wir werden uns beim EU-Gipfel gemeinsam dafür einsetzen, dass die Stellung der Neutralen in der EU weiterhin ausdrücklich berücksichtigt wird.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Seit Wochen sagt die Ministerin, die Bundeswehr dürfe nicht geschwächt werden. Die Industrie kann #Marder , #Leopard1 & #Leopard2 liefern, ohne dass der BW ein Fahrzeug weggenommen wird. Jetzt liefert man #Dingo aus Beständen der BW.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Note the flat, open terrain. Light infantry without armoured vehicles does not stand a chance to go anywhere. This s why supplying armoured vehicles to 🇺🇦 is so important! #leopard #marder

@Militarylandnet

MilitaryLand.net

@Militarylandnet

2 years

📽️Video reportedly showing Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south. Ukrainian tanks ahead, followed by YPR-765 APCs and infantry. #UkraineRussiaWar #Kherson

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

10 months

Rostov is the central logistic/C2 hub for the Donezk front, Voronesh for the Kharkiv front. These are not demilitarised zones. While I don't think Putin's power in Moscow is under threat (for now), the level of disillusionment and frustration of the armed forces must be high.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 months

Pistorius ist ein Lichtblick in dem ganzen Schlamassel.

@cziedler

Christopher Ziedler

2 months

„Wenn nicht doch noch Schlimmeres herauskommt, werde ich sicher nicht meine besten Offiziere für Putins Spielchen opfern“ - Boris #Pistorius @BMVg_Bundeswehr stellt MAD-Ermittlung #TaurusLeak vor & stärkt 4 Abgehörten @Team_Luftwaffe trotz Anwendungsfehler in Singapur den Rücken

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

10 months

This is totally crazy. Prigoshin knows that "security guarantees" mean nothing in 🇷🇺. Shoigu & Gerasimov aside, the humiliating factor was too deep not to forget. How armed forces and Wagner will manage their coexistence after this day is an enigma to me.

@sentdefender

OSINTdefender

10 months

According to Russian State Media, Major Changes to the Leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense including changes to the current Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu and Army Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov have reportedly been Agreed upon in order to Stop the March of…

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 months

Das ist der "Friede", von dem Mützenich, Stegner, Wagenknecht, et al reden 👇

@RalphJanik

Ralph Janík

2 months

“two Russian soldiers broke into a house and took turns repeatedly raping a 42-year-old three-month pregnant woman and the 17-year- old girlfriend of her son.“ I have read the most recent UN report on Russian war crimes. Horrific. Some quotes below.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Sharing the burden of supplying vehicles to 🇺🇦 beteen many countries s better than isolated do it alone. The #Leopard2 tank is used by 13 🇪🇺 nations. It is the logical choice to equip 🇺🇦. 👇 @jana_puglierin @_RafaelLoss & my idea 4 a 🇪🇺 Leopard initiative

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The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory

Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

7 months

Those who think 🇺🇦 should vote during wartime, what do you think 🇷🇺 will do to polling stations? Answer see below 👇

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

7 months

All those lammenting that Zelenskyy is insufficiently polite should read this. And then ask themselves how polite they'd be, if it were their friends and families.

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Russia is taking my friends one by one – and now I struggle even to write about them | Oleksandr...

In Ukraine, the second summer of the invasion has been a season of unbearable goodbyes: to our teachers, our artists and our loved ones, says Ukrainian writer Oleksandr Mykhed

www.theguardian.com

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

12/ Striking in this attack, 🇷🇺 used high-end, high-cost SRBM and cruise missiles as instruments of terror against non-hardened targets. From a purely military point of view, that is quite a waste of effort. But if you are desperate to show off...

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

This is what many in Germany don't get. The war may stop, but under 🇷🇺 occupation violence will not. Read what happens to those arrested in the Izolyatsia. This is the terror machine of a fascist regeme. Nothing else.

@Militarylandnet

MilitaryLand.net

@Militarylandnet

2 years

📽️ Russian FSB raiding residential houses in #Kherson #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

Congratulations my dear @Bundeskanzler . Let' have a beer and comment all this once the final details are known. @derspiegel

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

They say what they mean. And they will proceed until stopped. AND resurrecting the empire is only the prelude to achieve military dominance over Europe. If we don't want to fight for 🇺🇦 now, we'll have to fight for ourselves later.

@JuliaDavisNews

Julia Davis

@JuliaDavisNews

2 years

Here is a video with jarring quotes from Russian State Duma Deputy Defense Committee Chairman Vladimir Shamanov, former Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Airborne Troops, accused war criminal. He talks about Russia's horrific plans for Ukraine, its gov't leaders and journalists.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

5 months

1/ I get asked a lot about the possibility of a ceasefire in the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war. Short answer - it's an illusion. Long answer in the thread.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

9 months

Oh, what a non-surprise here. Unfortunately in 🇩🇪 Wirecard is still treated as a banking/finance scandal, not a counter intelligence failure.

@michaeldweiss

Michael Weiss

9 months

More on the Russian spy network rolled up in the UK. They're connected to Jan Marsalek, the fugitive Wirecard COO:

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Fully agree with @RALee85 . As confidence in 🇩🇪 is not that great, to put it mildly, I don't quite understand why Germans insist on making it worse.

@RALee85

Rob Lee

2 years

This is really bizarre. Russia committed ~85% of its BTGs (which includes naval infantry and VDV) by April. Those units took heavy losses, so Russia has depended on volunteers and reservists since then. The 11th Army Corps based in Kaliningrad was just heavily degraded in Kharkiv

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

Noteworthy on the 🇩🇪 aid package are 4 batteries IRIS-T, implying production capability for missiles has been considerably increased compared to last year. Increasing defence industrial output is essential to dissuade Putin from the illusion he may win the war on the long run.

@Artur_Micek

Artur Micek

1 year

Niemcy przekażą Ukrainie największy pakiet pomocy wojskowej od początku wojny - podał Spiegel. Pakiet o wartości 2,7 mld euro będzie obejmował: - 20 BWP Marder; - 30 czołgów Leopard 1; - 4 systemy obrony powietrznej IRIS-T-SLM (12 wyrzutni i setki pocisków do niego); -…

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

7 months

"Denken vor dem Reden könnte helfen". Herrlicher Kommentar zu Precht. @faznet

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Richard David Precht verplappert sich antisemitisch: Nichts als Meinungen

Denken vor dem Reden könnte helfen: Show-Philosoph Richard David Precht verplappert sich antisemitisch. Lanz findet das „richtig“ – und das ZDF liefert eine Entschuldigung, die keine ist.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

Das war gar nicht so selbstverständlich, dass diese Zahlen so schnell zu Stande kommen. Dazu muss man #Pistorius gratulieren. Er hängt sich da voll rein.

@mattia_n

Mattia Nelles

1 year

Verteidigungsminister Pistorius:. Ein Bataillon mit Leopard-2 A4 steht, eins mit A6 so gut wie. Vier Bataillone mit Leopard-1 A5 sollen in der zweiten Jahreshälfte folgen. Munition für den Gepard wird ab Sommer in 🇩🇪 produziert.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

1/ A short update tweet on where we are on the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war. A lot to do for @ecfr , and our next #twitterspace will be about different things ... so here wer are. Last week 🇷🇺 repaired the railway connection into #Izyum and you immediately see the results.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Petition zur Lieferung 🇩🇪 Panzer an die 🇺🇦. Unterschreiben und Verbreiten!

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

Die Verschwörungstheoretikerin Gabriele Krone Schmalz bezeichnet sich zwar gerne als Opfer von Cancel Culture, will aber ihre Kritiker ( @EFDavies ) selbst mit Anwälten canceln. Soviel zu den angeblichen Verfechtern der Meinungsfreiheit.

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Gabriele Krone-Schmalz geht mit Anwälten gegen Kritikerin vor

Der Streit, der mit einem Vortrag von Gabriele Krone-Schmalz in Köln in Fahrt kam, geht in die nächste Runde.

www.t-online.de

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

1/ While 🇩🇪 defence minister did not say no yesterday, rather not yet, I think the #Leopard Plan as we conceived it in September 4 @ecfr is dead. Why? A longer thread.

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The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory

Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

So #Germany is about to send 400 Panzerfaust 3 to 🇺🇦. I sincerely applaud the federal government @OlafScholz @ABaerbock This is not only about the weapons itself, it is a break with an unsustainable culture of unconventional pacifism. Finally values and deeds align.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

This is a very solid package. The West finally switched policy from ensuring survival to enabling victory.

@Tendar

(((Tendar)))

1 year

Newest US military aid for Ukraine: - 50x M2 Bradley with 500 TOW missiles and 250,000x 25mm ammo - 100x M113 APCs - 55x MRAPSs - 138x HMMWVs - 18x 155mm SPGs - 70,000x 155mm arty rounds - 500x precision guided arty rounds - 36x 155mm towed arty - 1,200 155mm RAAM Systems - GMLRS

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Wow. We are 55 days into the war and the US have developed a drone specifically to 🇺🇦 needs. Rub that in the face of all the "we can't" ... "impossible" ... whatever threads over here.

@beverstine

Brian Everstine

2 years

DOD: "Phoenix Ghost" drones were rapidly developed by USAF in response to Ukrainian requirements. They have 'similar capabilities' to the Switchblades. >121 going to Ukraine. Will require 'minimal training' Whoa.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

9 years ago I joined Twitter. 🇷🇺 had invaded Crimea and assembled troops on the 🇺🇦 border. My warnings that Crimea is not enough for Moscow fell on death ears in Vienna. My wife suggested I start tweeting about it for psychohygene. #MeinTwitterJubil äum

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

1/ Mein heutiger #servicetweet in 🇩🇪 zur #Marder Debatte, da sich hier auch im #Miltwitter gehörige Fehleinschätzungen breit machen!!! 1⃣ Die in Frage stehenden Marder stammen NICHT aus beständen der Bundeswehr. Es handelt sich um ausgeschiedene Fahrzeuge, die wieder ...

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

11 months

1/ Some noteworthy stuff here. First AIM-7 for air defence. They will be launched from Buk-M1 launchers. Integrating Sparrows in Buks was a bumpy ride, took longer than expected. But finally solves an ammo issue for a prolific system in 🇺🇦.

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Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukra

The Defense Department announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.

www.defense.gov

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 months

Unklar und zweideutig. Denn es bräuchten zur Systemintegration keine deutschen Soldaten in die Ukraine entsandt werden. Was was will der Kanzler verbergen?

@GordonRepinski

Gordon Repinski

@GordonRepinski

2 months

Klare und grundsätzliche Absage von @Bundeskanzler an eine #Taurus -Lieferung an die Ukraine (bei der @dpa Chefredaktionskonferenz): „Ich habe erklärt, warum das nicht infrage kommt - und dabei bleibt es.“

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

3/ So let's start with 1⃣ the attacking weapons: First, Kyiv and many other cities in Ukraine aer in the range of Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM), particularly Iskander and Tochka-U. THese are hardest to intercept. An Iskander comes in at a high angle (~70°)...

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

25/ So 3⃣ what we can do to support Ukraine? Unfortunately here we are less contrained by political issues than by material shortages. Air-defence has been de-prioritised in the West for 30 years, as the Taliban and other foes had no impressive air force. And history had ended...

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

Exighting news. 🇺🇦 for the first time successfully intercepted a Kh-47 Khizal on May 4th. The missile was heading for Kyiv. Most likely with a Patriot PAC-3.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

1/ This is the thing to follow closely.👇 The 🇷🇺 army has the capacity (officers, barracks, etc.) to train roughly 250 000 men at once. If you want to create more forces, you'd have to do this in waves.

@ChrisO_wiki

ChrisO_wiki

1 year

1/ Russia is planning a second wave of partial mobilisation over the winter of 2022/23 but lacks the capacity for a general mobilisation, according to the independent Russian news website Verstka. It is already struggling to provide even the basics to the currently mobilised. ⬇️

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

9 months

#Putin und #Chrupalla wollen die Großraumordnung mit Interventionsverbot raumfremder Mächte wiederbeleben. Wenn ihr wissen wollt woher das kommt, für 3 Reichsmark in jeder Buchhandlung erhältlich.

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@aufmacher

Jan-Philipp Hein

9 months

Chrupalla bekennt sich zu Russland: „Multipolarität bedeutet, nicht mehr eine einzige Weltmacht beherrscht die Welt, sondern mehrere gleichberechtigte Mächte setzen in ihren Regionen ihre Vorstellungen von Recht und Ordnung durch.“ Falsche Fahne am Revers

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

4/ ... and high speed (>2400m/s). Any intercepting missile needs to get a lead on the target, in this case going upwards very fast. If an Iskander maneuvres during decent, this gets even more difficult, as the interceptor needs to make large corrections very fast.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

13/ So on 2⃣, what can 🇺🇦 do to defend itself? First, there is no "one fits it all" weapons system to defend, as the targets are fairly different in speed, course, altitude, and numbers. Air defences need to be layered, and different weapons system supporting each other.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

2/ I will 1⃣ look at the missiles/weapons presumably used, 2⃣ 🇺🇦 air defences, and 3⃣ ways if Western assistance. Again, all based on limited information.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

11 months

. @Bundeskanzler with precision strikes exactly the right words. But only if he is enraged. (Same good replies last year on May 1st - "ihr seid aus der Zeit gefallen"). Come on Olaf, being emotional is human. Show it more often!

@Fatassinari

Fabrizio Tassinari

11 months

Scholz’s indignation is absolutely righteous. What a difference a year makes.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

8/ Finally lointering munition, or "suicide drones" (although, guys, every sort of munition is suicidal...). They are the slowest target by far, a bit over 50m/s. But being slow, they can follow the terrain closer than a cruise missile, often fly below the radar's actual sight.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

No, because it doen't. The USSR providing MiGs to Korea & Vietnam did not cause WWIII, USSR delivering MiGs to Egypt & Syria in 1967/73 did not cause WWIII, Russia providing MiGs to Haftar did not cause WWIII, and us providing them to Ukraine wouldn't either.

@OlenaHalushka

Olena Halushka

2 years

Can anybody of the numerous nuclear deterrence experts explain why granting javelins and stingers to Ukraine is fine, while providing more advanced air & missile defence systems or jets would immediately trigger WWIII? Asking for a friend. 40 mln friends

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

5/ This means that practical range of air defence missiles is highly reduced. A missile that can intercept a subsonic aircraft at 50km (used in catalogue range diagrammes) will only be able to defend sites against SRBM attacks a few kilometers around the firing position.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

14/ Back in March and April, 🇺🇦 air defences around Kyiv were thik and layered. They intercepted several Tochka-Us and Kalibr missiles, although of course not all in one attack wave. According to the UAF, 41 out of 75 missiles were intercepted in this attack.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

7/ ... and infrared signature means they are often detected very late. Having multiple sensors supporting each other can midgigate this. Dedicated low-altitude radars like the good old flamingo help as well.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

27/ Germany has reacted fastest in May to announce delivery of IRIS-T SLM. Technically a potent system, good sensors, range of 40km against aircraft (only point defence against SRBM), mobile. But it can only be delivered as produced, so one battery this year and 3 in 2023.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

10/ The first wave providing information about the target's defences, to be circumvented by the second. Because of shortages in ammunition, Russia had also resorted to use air-defence missiles and anti-ship missiles for ground attack roles. They are not very good at that.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

6/ Then cruise missiles, like the Kalibr. THey come in at much lower speed (~240m/s) and low altitude (depending on terrain, but usually 50 to 100m above ground). As a target, they aer as easy to intercept as any other subsonic aircrafft, however their low RCS ...

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

The model of voluntary unilateral donations for 🇺🇦 is exhausted. We need 🇪🇺 procurement to provide 1️⃣ 🇺🇦 with the capabilities it needs 2️⃣ 🇪🇺 replacement for donated ammo/vehicles 3️⃣ defence industry with long term demand to increase production @ecfr

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More tortoise, less hare: How Europeans can ramp up military supplies for Ukraine in the long war

European leaders must shift from supplying only short-term military support for Ukraine to providing long-term strategic assistance…

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

9/ They are also very cheap, costing roughly $20.000 a piece, much less than any missile, even much less than the smallest air defence missiles posed to intercept them. Hence they also appear in larger numbers, and usually in staggered waves.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

16/ Hence decisions should have been made already to have effect in summer/authumn. We waste precious time, both in Washington, Berlin, Paris, ... name it. Only 🇵🇱🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 go full in. Particularly disappointed in 🇷🇴. Big mouth, now sitting on the fence.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Ich bin froh über jedes gepanzerte Fahrzeug, das 🇺🇦 bekommt. Aber ganz erschließen tut sich mir die Logik nicht...

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

24/ 🇺🇦 fighters had shot down Kalibr in the past. Now there is a diplomatic incident between 🇲🇩 and 🇷🇺 as some Kalibr flew across 🇲🇩 territory. This is probably to re-route them to bypass central Ukrainian fighter patroles.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

7/ Unfortunately, the West is still not grasping the seriousness of the situation. Fear of escalation in 🇺🇸 & 🇩🇪 still prevent us from supplying the quantity and quality needed for the 🇺🇦 armed forces to sustain the fight through the next year.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

13/ Wenn die @BReg_Bund immer nur der Lage hinterherschwimmt, wird sie immer zu spät sein. Es braucht vorausschauende Planung im Verbund mit unseren Alliierten. Die #Marder Affäre zeigt dass sie da noch nicht angekommen ist. Das wird das 🇪🇺 Vertrauen in 🇩🇪 weiter erschüttern.

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Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

11/ SAM do not have any land attack mode at all, so they can only roughly hit something somewhere in an aerea target like a city. Anti ship missiles have a land-attack mode, but they need large buildings for their radar seekers to orient themselves.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

31/ Often in the press you read things like "10 units are being delivered, etc." which referes to launchers. But launchers can only be used in connection to their radar and fire control center.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

This is the kind of vessel you'd use to blow up a pipeline. Not a 50 foot sailing yacht.

@Maks_NAFO_FELLA

MAKS 23 🇺🇦👀

@Maks_NAFO_FELLA

1 year

"A Danish boat photographed the Russian special vessel SS-750 at the site of the explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline four days before the pipeline was blown up" - Information agency according to the Danish Ministry of Defense

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

I am not yet ready to say on day 4 the Donbas offensive has failed, but it doesn't look good for 🇷🇺. It really doesn't.

@JackDetsch

Jack Detsch

2 years

NEW: Ukraine has repelled numerous Russian assaults on the Donbas line of control and inflicted “significant cost” on invading forces despite ceding some territory: UK Defense Intel UK assesses poor 🇷🇺 morale & limited time to reorganize for Donbas has limited 🇷🇺 effectiveness

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

16/ The primary air defence system od the Ukrainian Air Force is the S-300 system, of which 🇺🇦 had 31 batteries before the war. Particularly the S-300PMU is capable of interceoting SRBM, however the bulk of S-300 are PS/PM versions. The 150-90km range against aircraft ...

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

8 months

Yes, Habeck's mindset is more strategic than that of Scholz and Merkel together.

@noahbarkin

Noah Barkin

8 months

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck's speech to ambassadors today is worth a listen. He goes where Scholz has never dared: - Trade & investment is now geopolitical - The unwinding of globalisation is unlikely to reverse - Europe may need to choose between the US & China

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

38/ ... critical infrastructure, etc. Adding new sensors and integrate them in modern C2 systems is easier than designing and testing new systems from scratch. We have fetishised technological revolutions so much that we forgot a lot of evolutionary potential of our old stuff.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

4 months

Ukraine's 70 Leopard 2 idle for the lack of spares. The Leopard 2 is the most prolific MBT in NATO, how do we think to keep that fleet afloat in times of war?

@Konflikt_Sicher

Konflikte&Sicherheit

@Konflikt_Sicher

4 months

Nur noch wenige der 18 einst von Deutschland gelieferten Kampfpanzer Leopard 2A6 sind in der Ukraine überhaupt noch einsatzfähig. Es fehlen wohl Ersatzteile, um diese in Litauen nach Gefechtsschäden und Verschleiß im Einsatz schnell reparieren zu können.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

3 months

#Brussels . Farmers' protests. Absolute spontanous and not coinciding with other events I guess... (irony off)

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

26/ Most air-defence systems in 🇪🇺 were developed on a commercial basis, because there was an export market, not because there was interest in them by our own armies and bureaucracy. That had negative impact on production capabilites (low), costs (high), and availability (none).

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

28/ 🇺🇸 joined the effort with NASMAS, a similar system. 2 batteries this year, up to 6 in total by the next. THis system too is an export oriented design. It comes as fast as it is produced. But compared to 31 S-300 and 10 Buk batteries, you see the catch.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

17/ ... is reduced to below 30km (or below) against SRBM, for reasons mentioned above. As it has been the backbone of 🇺🇦 air defence for 7 months, ammunition supply is an issue. 🇸🇰 has handed over its S-300 in April, but given the high consumptio of missiles, this won't do alone.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

15/ Problems for air defences particuarly in the West are deployments to the East where the bulk of the fighting happens, shortages of ammunition, and the surprise elements of air attacks. So a few remarks about the missiles:

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

19/ Buk missiles are running out, and 🇺🇦 desperately trying to get more ammo. Also, because they are needed to fend off Russian aircraft in the theatre of operations, many have been deployed East as fighting moved there.

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Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

20/ 🇺🇦 also uses short-range systems like the Igla/Stinger/Grom MANPADS and Gepard SPAAG against drones. Gepards are very scarce and needed to accompany mechanised reserves into battle. They are rerely deployed around cities, last time to guard Lamprechts visit to Odessa.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

My kids wanted Lego superhero figures as Easter present. Got that ...

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Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

18/ The Buk-M1 supplements the S-300. 🇺🇦 had 10 batteries, range <30km. While unsuited against SRBM other than lucky point defence, the missile is much better against low flying targets like cruise missiles and drones, against which S-300PS/PM have issues with their seekers.

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Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

22/ As with Gepards, most MANPADS are operated by the army, not air force, hence they are deployed where the fighting is. Even without ammo shortages, defending Ukraine is no easy task. The country is large, multiple high-value targets: cities, power stations, communication hubs

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Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

21/ MANPADS operators can hardly see small drones, so they need q-ing in by radar or other sensors. Ukrainians are integrating these short range systems in air defence networks. However defending large cities with MANPADS would require lots of launchers, due to their short range.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

I have heard 🇷🇺 armed forces change tactics. No more fast advances, wait for heavy armour and artillery. This is bad, but with 🇺🇸 targeting data provides more stationary targets. God bless the Ukrainian artillery! May the force be with them (and a lot of ammunition).

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

17 days

I hope other countries follow en suit! This can only be mastered as a collective effort.

@deaidua

German Aid to Ukraine 🇩🇪🤝🇺🇦

17 days

Official Info! The German MoD just announced that Germany will deliver another Patriot battery to #Ukraine ! I am not yet aware of a time frame, but will provide this as soon as I read something official.

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Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

5/ As long as the 🇷🇺 army is weak, the Kremlin would love to distract the West with negotiations. Anything to push arms-deliveries from frontline news. In March when the'll be ready to strike, they will quit negotiating under whatever pretext and resume the offensive.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

10 months

1/ Some thoughts on the munity turned attempted Putsch yesterday. A lot on it is still in the dark. But a few observations. A 🪡

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Gustav C. Gressel

2 months

Auch durch das Ignorieren des 🇬🇧 "Ringtausch" Angebotes. Er verstrickt sich derweilen in seinen eigenen Vorwänden, öffnet Raum für Spekulationen, die alle nicht sein hätten müssen. Ein kollektives Versagen auch seiner Berater.

@ulrichspeck

Ulrich Speck

2 months

Mit dem Zurückschrecken vor der Lieferung von Taurus im Schulterschluss mit der Lieferung von Marschflugkörpern durch Frankreich und Großbritannien hat Scholz sich ein Problem selbst geschaffen. Die Ängste sind massiv übertrieben, die Begründungen sind Vorwände.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

30/ What I should say: you can only protect one object per pattery, not per launcher! The radar and fire control centre are the critical mass, there is one per battery, even if there are 2, they are meant to alternate in order to avoid strikes by anti-radiation missiles.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

. @FT : on 🇦🇹"The country’s defence ministry is “practically a department of the GRU”, the diplomat added." I am not allowed to comment, but I'll leave it to your educated guess why I left ...

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‘Tip of the iceberg’: rise in Russian spying activity alarms European capitals

Intelligence agencies have been slow to respond to the growing scope of covert Kremlin operations overseas

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

23/ To a certain degree, fighters can close the gap between air defence zones against cruise missiles and drones, but depending on the direction of the attack, they need to be close and in the air.

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Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

29/ Western systems are more modern than Soviet ones, but again, this is a large country. The few systems can hardly be used to complement/support each other. There are too many sites to be protected for too few batteries.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

37/ Whih brings me to an other horrible mistake 🇪🇺 often does in military affairs. To fetishise technology and discard the effectiveness of aging weapons. If modernised with proper sensors (radar/IR), an old GDF-002 or Bofors L70 is a good point-defence weapon to protect ...

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

34/ As you can imagine, I would highly recommend this, as NATO is very short on air-defence systems on its own, and we would need such systems after this war (🇺🇦 needs them now).

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

7 months

This is a long war. Putin is neither interested in ceasfires nor compromises. Only a concerted defence-industrial effort to counter this will let 🇺🇦 prevail.

@jakluge

Janis Kluge

7 months

The Russian budget plan for 2024 has to be a wake-up call for the West. Putin is in it to win it. It will take a much bigger effort and more spending by the West to stop him.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

39/ END for now.

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 months

Doch. Einsatzplanung und Programmierung erfolgt durch 🇺🇦, nicht durch 🇨🇵🇬🇧. Hört mit diesen Märchen 👇 auf.

@RosendorfStefan

Stefan Rosendorf

@RosendorfStefan

2 months

@michaelvietz @P_O_Heinemann @GresselGustav @lto_de Das hat auch nie jemand ernsthaft bestritten! Es ist nur aber keine OPTION der Ukraine das beizubringen, das machen ja auch gerade 🇬🇧🇫🇷 NICHT. Da das bedeuten würde, die Kontrolle über die Waffe zu verlieren. Und DAS ist der Knackpunkt!

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

While it was unlikely 🇦🇹 would come out of isolation, celebrating it by clinging on to Orban makes this even more bizarre. All for domestic purposes, to pretend to have a foreign policy, when in fact you don't.

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Austria, Hungary agree on not sending weapons to Ukraine

www.euractiv.com

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Dann schraubt dem Marder halt die 20mm Kanone ab, und er wird Mannschaftstransportpanzer. Wenn es wirklich um solche Haarspalterein ginge.

@CarloMasala1

Carlo "Realism, Gedankenfetzen and Rants" Masala

2 years

Ich habe gestern bei @maischberger gesagt, dass Dänemark und Kanada bereits Schützenpanzer geliefert hätten. Diese Info ist falsch. Es handelt sich bei M113GD4DK und LAV II ACSV um leichte Transportpanzer. Ich bitte für diesen Fehler um Entschuldigung

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

1 year

4/ 1️⃣ trust: if you stard procuring new 2A7 to replace existing vehicles donated to 🇺🇦, you make a commitment to operate a 🇩🇪 tank for another 30 years. After recent escapades there will be much greater reluctance to do so. In an existential security crisis, 🇩🇪 acted irrationally

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@GresselGustav

Gustav C. Gressel

2 years

Bombing the port of #Odessa one day after the grain agreement not only confirms that NO agreement or treaty whatsoever with 🇷🇺 is worth the paper.

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