1. What is Neo-Idealism?
(seeing as many of you have asked)
Itโs a new approach to Grand Strategy & International Relations that I think we can see emerging in responses to
#Russia
โs war & from
#Ukraine
โs brave resistance.
1st ๐งตin a series on
#NeoIdealism
1/25
It's sad Israel has to live under constant threat of missile and rocket attacks like this
No other modern country has to live with this constant threat
This week (30-31/08) EU Foreign Ministers meet in
#Prague
where they'll discussion the
#visaban
.
I've worked on issues relating to visas, borders & EU foreign & security policy for 2 decades.
Here's what you need to know
- & why you should SUPPORT the
#visabanforrussians
๐งต/1
Just wondering:
If a NATO country were hit & it looked like
#Germany
would be sucked into a shooting war, would it still take a year to get the
#Leopards
from industry to battlefield? Would normal working practices still apply - or would things be stepped up?
B/c they could be.
The now infamous open letter by 'intellectuals & artists' calling on
#Germany
to stop supporting
#Ukraine
[&, effectively, for ๐บ๐ฆ's capitulation to
#Russia
] is very revealing. As well as being patronising as hell & totally wrong I think its shows something else too ... 1/
It is absurd that
#UK
&
#Germany
will sell Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, an authoritarian state that opposes liberal values.
These powerful jets should be sent to
#Ukraine
which directly fights for our values, interests & security.
This is how you do it.
#Czechia
sends more heavy weapons to
#Ukraine
.
They are Czech production.
This is on top of T-72 tanks & Dana Howitzers.
#Germany
, take note - special FAO Robert Habeck, ๐จ๐ฟ is a
#NATO
member โฆ
Desperate to be in
#Ukraine
, where they belong, & frustrated by how long itโs taking to
#FreeTheLeopards
๐ฉ๐ช
#tanks
are taking matters into their own hands
- a Leopard2A6 & a Bergepanzer 3 broke loose in Gutersloh โฆ /S
- seriously though, how long can this farce go on?
This is so important. When you watch these clips youโll know what must be done.
Only victory and meaningful justice can end the cycle of aggression. And, every day, more evidence is collected for a Special Tribunal on Russian aggression.
Letโs get
#SpecialTribunalNow
trending.
If you think democracyโs fight is not yours.
If you think itโs fine for an autocratic great power to bully itโs neighbour.
Then we have a problem
-
And you donโt speak for Europe - You never have - and you will not have a Europe to lead.
#Poland
, already leading the way, could pile yet more pressure on
#Scholz
to deliver
#Leopard2s
(with a little
#US
help)
-๐บ๐ธ sent 28
#Abrams
to๐ต๐ฑ for training๐ต๐ฑ crews.
- If
#US
donates them to ๐ต๐ฑ it would free up as many as 28 Leos to be sent to
#Ukraine
๐บ๐ฆ
Eh,
@apmassaro3
?
In case you didnโt get it,
#Russia
โs military defeat is the perfect time to tighten the sanctions, tighten the travel restrictions and increase the isolation โฆ
The thing is that even IF
#Germany
now follows
#France
& the
#US
& delivers Armoured vehicles, it will still look like itโs moving at the speed of shame from outside. The only way to now actually regain moral standing is to seize the initiative & go full Leopard
#FreeTheLeopards
By failing to seize Russian assets we signal weakness & a lack of resolve to win the war.
We risk failing to deter Russia by defeating it in Ukraine & putting ourselves in great danger.
We have to
#MakeRussiaPay
as the brilliant
@OlenaHalushka
said in Munich
#MSC2024
๐ฅTHE RACE IS ON ๐ฅ
With
#Russia
eyeing a spring offensive & mass mobilisation,
#Ukraine
needs
#TANKS
- Main Battle Tanks
#MBTs
- like never before.
To get them to ๐บ๐ฆ by March with some training a decision is needed in the next 10-14 days.
- Thankfully โฆ 1/3
Hungarians should do something about Orban
- or we must do something about Hungary.
The choice must be clear.
- you can have the illiberal, Russia helping Orban.
- or you can have EU membership.
Not both.
#Hexit
#HuckOff
โThe only way I can read the Hungarian position, not just on Ukraine but on many other issues, is that they are against Europe and everything that Europe stands for.โ
โ Gabrielius Landsbergis, ๐ฑ๐น MFA
Hungarians should do something about their government before itโs too late.
#NAFO
is the return of repressed courage. decency and moral stature in the West - it erupted at our failure to stand up properly to
#Russia
, for
#Ukraine
, and for ourselves. Itโs taking back social media & recovering lost hope.
#Poland
has already done so much for
#Ukraine
.
Yet, for a relatively small additional investment it could trigger huge additional benefits.
Poland could send ONE of its
#Leopard
2PL modified MBTs. This would, at a stroke, remove Berlin's excuse for refusing to
#FreetheLeopards
Hungaryโs leader chooses to stand with a man whose forces are responsible for crimes against humanity in Ukraine, and alone among our Allies. While Russia strikes Ukrainian civilians, Hungary pleads for business deals.
I support this
#Schengen
'tourist'
#visaban
for Russians๐ท๐บ.
There are good arguments for & against - & neither option is perfect - but deciding between imperfect options is often the essence of politics.
After much careful consideration here's why I support the visa ban๐งต
1/
Stop issuing tourist visas to Russians. Visiting
#Europe
is a privilege, not a human right. Air travel from RU is shut down. It means while Schengen countries issue visas, neighbours to Russia carry the burden (FI, EE, LV โ sole access points). Time to end tourism from Russia now
Terrific from Tusk.
โWe donโt have Ukraine fatigue,
we have Orban fatigue,โ
#Poland
โs position on
#Hungary
is so important to an EU solution to the Orban problem.
We donโt, yet, know what caused the deadly explosion in
#Przewodow
#Poland
& should not jump to conclusions.
BUT, there are several important things to consider.
1. This would not have happened if we had earlier given
#Ukraine
the means to defeat
#Russia
& end the war.
Points on
#Ukraine
,
#Germany
, the
#EU
&
#NATO
.
1. We should not speak of 'solidarity' with Ukraine -it's our fight too: for democracy against autocracy, for freedom against tyranny, for our collective security and for our shared future.
We must consistently talk & act like that.
Because it shines a light on their own unwillingness to do so. It threatens to reveal the deep cowardice, cynicism & selfish will for an easy life (never mind the suffering of others or the lost potential for progress at home) that is all too common ... 3/
#Emma
#Germany
Iโll fix that for you.
VisaBan will:
- show EU resolve in support of Ukraine & opposition to Russia.
- make clear to Russians that this is their war -with consequences (& cause to reflect)
- enhance EU security & stop ๐ท๐บs laughing in our faces
- give us a future bargaining chip
Visa ban will:
- cause human tragedies by creating millions of separated families
- make it harder for emigre opposition to liaise with supporters inside the country
- fuel Putinโs Russophobia narrative
Visa ban will not:
- stop the war or help Ukraine in any meaningful way
This is combined with a massive superiority complex & the need to be recognised as superior by others. Its deeply ingrained, cherished & is fundamentally threatened by Ukraine's courageous fight, which shows many Europeans what they would not be willing to do themselves 4/
#Emma
If there is one country that should understand the need for military solutions to oppressive regimes,
it is
#Germany
.
If there is one country that should understand the need to back democratic allies to the hilt when they face a stronger, authoritarian foe,
it is
#Germany
.
It is not โunfortunateโ that Ukraine is still at war.
- it is a choice we have made by not giving Ukraine what it needs to win.
We should not โwishโ๐บ๐ฆ peace in 2024
- we should MAKE IT HAPPEN by giving Ukraine what it needs to win.
Peace comes through ๐บ๐ฆvictory.
Many of you have asked why Iโm pushing for
@GLandsbergis
as EU HRVP &
@kajakallas
as NATO SecGen
TLDR: theyโre the best people for the jobs - and to ensure NATO & the EU hold together & have a bright future we need our best in these positions.
I came back from
#MSC2024
moreโฆ
It's not enough for
#Russia
to lose its aggressive war.
โถ๏ธ
#Ukraine
must win.
It's not enough to win a military victory
๐บ๐ฆneeds a viable future.
That must include a clear path to
#EU
membership.
Here's why๐ช๐บshould offer that
(& what's getting in the way)
a๐งต
I still havenโt heard one *good* reason why sending โWesternโ Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) or Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs) to
#Ukraine
would trigger a significant escalation.
Iโve heard a lot of reasons given โฆ but they really donโt stack up & donโt outweigh the benefits.
We have to challenge this attitude & make sure it doesn't guide our policy -on the war, on reconstructing & integrating
#Ukraine
& in our own societies. False superiority won't get us anywhere. Let us be inspired by๐บ๐ฆ & let us act in way that again genuinely inspires others. /end
Contrary to what some in Berlin are claiming,
#Ukraine
needs tanks ASAP.
- a clear message to
#Germany
@CinC_AFU
Zaluzhny:
โI can beat this enemy. I need 300 main battle tanks, 600-700 armored personnel carriers, 500 artillery pieces."๐บ๐ฆ
#FreeTheLeopards
A small point on language, with some big implications.
The war is not โdragging onโ.
#Ukraine
is fighting desperately for its survival & to liberate its people from
#Russia
โs brutality & oppression.
We are dragging it out by not giving ๐บ๐ฆ what it needs to win ASAP.
Its that attitude of false superiority & patronising selfishness, combined with a lack of will to actually fight (metaphorically & literally) for progress - or to spread its benefits more widely - that is the real danger to
#Germany
&
#Europe
's future not - WW3. 7/
#Emma
/7
There's been a lot said about
@TimothyDSnyder
's devastating takedown of Jurgen
#Habermas
perspective on
#Ukraine
&
#Russia
which is, sadly, representative of a major strand of discourse in
#Germany
that also impacts ๐ฉ๐ชpolicy & positioning.
I want to highlight a few things ๐งต
Jรผrgen Habermas, regarded as the greatest political philosopher in Europe, has written a text on its major contemporary crisis, the war in Ukraine. His thesis has directed German discourse away from realities of the past and possibilities of the present.
It's a way of reinforcing this facade of superiority, but its haunted by the recognition that they themselves would not undertake this struggle & have, in too many ways, given in to cynicism about (geo)politics, ideals & progress more widely. 6/
#EmmaRose
56bn for Ukraine ๐บ๐ฆ
Zero Trust for Germany? ๐ฉ๐ช
#Germany
is both
#Ukraine
โs biggest European supporter in absolute financial terms
- AND rightly seen as problem by allies (As well as by many Germans)
Hereโs why.๐งต
(& no, itโs not just Scholz, the SPD &
#Taurus
)
In 2022 Ukrainians reminded us what courage is.
- Theyโve also given us the wake up call we needed to renew our own democracies & revive the hope of progress.
- hereโs to a ๐บ๐ฆ Victory in 2023 & to a Happy New Year!
Devastating
@BWallaceMP
โTime & time again Germany has been last to help Ukraine. At every stage they have had to be pushed or embarrassed into doing anything.
@aliciakearns
:
โScholzโs comments are irresponsible & a slap in the face to allies.
Many of us have been truly inspired by
#Ukraine
's incredible struggle to survive, but for others it seems that this rare show of courage, & decency and the valiant defence of country, values, rights & ideals is deeply troubling. Why? ...2/
#Emma
#Germany
Thank you to all who helped make
โTo
#Ukraine
With Loveโ possible.
๐บ๐ฆ & to all of you with whom we have formed community through common purpose this year๐บ๐ฆ
#SlavaUkraini
&
#MerryChristmas
๐
The fight back has begun.
Everyone has rightly talked about grim mood at
#MSC2024
BUT there were major signs that true leaders across Europe have had enough of the gap between words & action
& of key Allieโs failing to stand up for our common interests & for our security. 1/
We often hear that 'Failure is not an Option' in Ukraine
But we are making failure a real possibility.
That brings huge danger.
For
#Ukraine
- and for Europe more widely.
We can still turn this around,
but to do so we need to act strongly - and fast.
A๐งต
Like the obnoxious complaints (in
#Germany
but also around Western Europe & in the Brussels bubble) about
#Ukraine
's "excessive nationalism" - supposedly incompatible with the
#EU
& 'European values' - 'We've overcome all that nasty outdated stuff - but look [down] at them. 5/
How to deal with
#Russia
- Short thread based on my talk at
#LennartMeriConference
2023.
#NeoIdealism
1. Ukraine's war is our war - & must be won.
That means restoring UA's 1991 borders & ensuring UA's ability to defend them - & the people within them.
He played the dumb one in Cheers, right?
Seriously tho, this kind of false equivalence is hardcore, luxury anti-politics masquerading as principle.
Itโs corrosive & prevalent
Itโs totally possibly to be against the Iraq war & in favour of supporting ๐บ๐ฆ to win
- armingโฆ
"
#Germany
โs approach swiftly reverted to type: idealism about Moscowโs intentions, sympathy for its wariness of Nato, & appetite for its gas & oil [...]
Berlin blundered into a giant geopolitical trap, with disastrous results"
Excellent from
@olivernmoody
This is
#Austria
โs former foreign minister-the one who danced with Putin at her wedding.
She was given her role by Sebastian Kurz then leader of the mainstream party that still governs ๐ฆ๐น.
She is a symbol of the penetration of our societies by the agents of dictatorships.
Enough.
Trump said today during a campaign rally he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to any NATO member country that didnโt meet spending guidelines
This is a really bad article. It gets a lot of things straight wrong & is misleading about others.
Mostly though, it misses a really key point about
#US
security & why it is boosted by supporting
#Ukraine
.
This is b/c of blinkered chauvinism.
Short ๐งต
#Germany
's leaders, especially Chancellor
#Scholz
seem reluctant to really help
#Ukraine
-especially by providing
#heavyweapons
.
(Too) many reasons are given for this, even avoiding
#nuclear
war, but there's a problem with these excuses for๐บ๐ฆ- AND for๐ฉ๐ช& its
#NATO
allies
a๐งต
Switzerland has vetoed an Italian request to export 96 Swiss-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
"Neutrality" might have had an enlightened feel before the war, but now looks hopelessly naiveโas I argued earlier this year.
@GLandsbergis
@GLandsbergis
is 100% right
We must wake up to the severe threat we face b/c
- we are not supporting Ukraine to win
- we lack key capabilities
- we may not be able to rely on US
- we are projecting weakness not strength
BUT we can still turn this around
- if we act Fast
3 former Generals - Brauss & Bรผhler (๐ฉ๐ช) &
@general_ben
Hodges (๐บ๐ธ) all argue that we should have supplied ๐บ๐ฆ with tanks & other weapons earlier but that despite the Russian defences, the stalemate can be broken, and that
#Ukraine
should be given
#Taurus
๐ฏagree.
General Brauร in der FAZ: Wรคren die deutschen Leoparden und anderes Gerรคt frรผher gekommen, hรคtten die Russen nach ihren Niederlagen Ende 2022 nicht die Zeit bekommen, sich in Stellungen einzugraben, die bei der NATO als โdie stรคrksten in der Geschichteโ beschrieben werden. /1
Outstanding from
#NAFO
.
Two US Senators (who are not on the right side of history) wondering who pays us.
Seeing this happen to BustedMikeLee is especially funny.Well done
#Fellas
.
Chequeโs in the post, right
@Official_NAFO
?
If you think you need โcoverโ to
- defend freedom
- support democracy
- stand up to a dictator
- defeat imperial aggression
- & follow your own interests
Then youโve lost your moral & political compass.
-
#Scholz
should be making the case to
#Germany
โs ppl not hiding.
I support
@GLandsbergis
for the next
#EU
High Representative for Foreign Affairs & Security Policy
He is simply the best choice for a stronger Europe that stands up to dictators & builds the partnerships we need to secure our freedom and prosperity.
Wow. This is a scandal.
Orban needs to know that heโs risking Hungaryโs place in NATO & the EU if he carries on working against us.
There has to be a credible threat of expulsion.
โผ๏ธ๐ซOrbรกnโs MPs didnโt show up in Hungaryโs parliament to vote on ๐ธ๐ชโs NATO accession - no quorum, no vote.
Orbรกn promised to
@jensstoltenberg
thereโd be a vote ASAP.
He didnโt keep his word.
Meanwhile, ambassadors of NATO allies ๐บ๐ธ๐ณ๐ฑ๐ธ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ด๐ฉ๐ฐ ๐ช๐ช were present,
@Telexhu
reports.
Pistorius has had a storming
#MSC2024
- says Ukraine should win (a big deal in German politics - Scholz hasnโt said it)
- calls us joint defenders of the free world (not scholzian multipolarity)
- says we will need more than 2% Defence spending
This is leadership.
#Germany
๐ฉ๐ช Verteidigungsminister Pistorius auf einem
@MunSecConf
Panel รผber das Zwei-Prozent-Ziel bei den NATO-Ausgaben: โNatรผrlich brauchen wir mehrโ. Es sieht signifikante Erhรถhungen kommen, vielleicht bis zu 3,5 Prozent
๐บ๐ฆ: we need to defend our cities from Russiaโs onslaught.
@amnesty
: but there are civilians there
๐บ๐ฆ: we know, thatโs why we have to defend them, so ๐ท๐บwonโt butcher them
Amnesty - canโt you defend in that field over there.
๐บ๐ฆ: but then ๐ท๐บ will take the city
A: we know
There are also said to have been talks between British and German government representatives in recent weeks, in which British representatives tried to convince Germany to deliver Taurus. The German side is said to have expressed fear of the destruction of Crimean bridge.
5/5
'Security Guarantees' for
#Ukraine
are a hot topic - but it's a false debate.
NATO membership is the only viable option - but there's no consensus.
So we need an interim solution:
โฉWe should extend the
#JEF
& transform it into a
'Joint European Defence Initiative' (
#JEDI
)
๐งต1/
Absolutely!
Itโs time for all allies to stop making excuses, stop hedging their bets on future relations with Putin, start making the proper calculation about what helps democracies & democratic ordering, do the right thing & whatโs in our interest:
Itโs time to
#makeRussiaPay
A crucial milestone on confiscating russian assets. Thank you everyone who has been working tirelessly. Thank you
@Billbrowder
and all the allies for your contributions!
After this week in
#Germany
, we can really ask โWhat Zeitenwendeโ?
- Hamburg Port part sale to Chinese company COSCO
- push for selling a chip manufacturer to a Chinese company
- Still no Leopards for
#Ukraine
And Stoltenberg is Right.
The US attempting to limit the targets Ukraine can hit - including to prevent oil prices from being affected ahead of the election - is pure cynicism and should be called out & resisted.
#NATO
chief Stoltenberg sides with Ukraine -- potentially against the US -- in saying Kyiv has the right to determine "legitimate" targets in defending itself against Russia's illegal aggression.
Itโs way beyond time for
#Germany
to send Taurus.
Scholz continuing to block even after his US excuse is blown, clearly shows he doesnโt want
#Ukraine
to win.
This is a massive geopolitical error - it hurts๐บ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ช, Europe & the free ๐
StormShadow, Scalp, ATACMS, now
#FreeTaurus
Dem
@Bundeskanzler
ist nun jede letzte
#Taurus
Ausrede weggefallen. Er kann sich nicht einmal mehr hinter Biden verstecken. Mit jedem weiteren Tag der Verzรถgerung blamiert Scholz sich selbst sowie unser Land, und kostet der
#Ukraine
Zeit und Menschenleben.
Es reicht.
#FreeTaurus
Just had a German journalist explain to me that if
#Ukraine
had *joined* (!)
#NATO
yesterday then today we would all be at war with
#Russia
. ๐คฆโโ๏ธ
They understood nothing.
Try supporting Ukraine & try doing something to change your country into a liberal democracy & then come back.
Then actually do it on both counts.
And come back again.
And we might consider your wishes.
Enough of this entitled, poor Russians me first crap. No one cares.
Many Russians living in Finland and dual-nationals say the decision to close the crossings will make it harder for them to reach their relatives in Russia.
By throwing Ukraine under the bus and rewarding Russian aggression, Washington could abandon the cause of democracy & freedom and help seal its own fate along with those of its allies, repeating the worst mistakes of our past, sowing ecological doom & cancelling our future.
โBy abandoning efforts to turn Russia into an international pariah and restoring normal diplomatic relations, Washington could use Moscow to help create regional balances of power across Eurasia that favor U.S. interests,โ writes Thomas Graham.
โFrom the fog of war in
#Ukraine
, the contours of a new European politics are emerging. Not in
#Germany
or
#France
, but rather it is in the EUโs Central & East European states that a new hard-edged geopolitical idealism is taking shape.โ
#CEE
@RUSI_org
Not enough Germans yet realise this:
โRussia has identified
#Germany
as the weakest link in the allianceโ
- given ๐ฉ๐ชis also Europeโs largest economy & thus crucial to winning in Ukraine & deterring Russia in future
- this makes ๐ฉ๐ช a tempting target
#Germany
โs moral authority is currently under extreme duress (to put it mildly).
The role of ๐ฉ๐ช identity & history in its response to
#Ukraine
has come up again & again.
I have a new piece out that deals with both of these issues (& more)
-A ๐งต
โScholzโs behaviour has showed that as far as the security of Europe goes he is the wrong man, in the wrong job at the wrong time.โ
Ben Wallace telling it how it is.
How long will Scholzโs coalition partners tolerate this?
And how long will Germanyโs voters let them?
@bctallis
Ex ๐ฌ๐ง defence sec Ben Wallace, tearing
@Bundeskanzler
a new one.
Clearly frustrated at Scholz.
โScholzโs behaviour has showed that as far as the security of Europe goes he is the wrong man, in the wrong job at the wrong time.โ
The
#EU
should not take a 'halfway house' approach to
#Ukraine
. Instead ๐ช๐บ should learn from its past, immediately grant ๐บ๐ฆ candidacy, & seize the moment to play a stronger role in ordering the emerging world.
Delighted to have this in
@ForeignPolicy
.
Too good from
@kajakallas
:
โthe new NATO leader should come from a newer member state, committing at least two percent of its budget to defense, & should ideally be a woman. So itโs logical it should be Mark Rutte"
[who meets none of the criteria.
Kallas meets them all]
BREAKING โ Parliament refuses discharge of the Council budget until European Council decided to support Ukraine with additional Patriot anti-missile systems !