Andrea Kendall-Taylor Profile Banner
Andrea Kendall-Taylor Profile
Andrea Kendall-Taylor

@AKendallTaylor

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Director, Transatlantic Security Program @CNASdc . Former DNIO for Russia, senior analyst at CIA. Adjunct Prof at Yale and Georgetown. Views my own.

Joined September 2011
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
5 months
Coming soon (well...April 2024). But excited to see the cover!
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
The most likely path to a better Russia now runs through Ukrainian success. 1/ My new piece w/ Erica Frantz out in @ForeignAffairs
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
Putin’s downfall may not come tomorrow or the day after, but his grip on power is certainly more tenuous than it was before he invaded Ukraine. Here is a link to the piece without the paywall:
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
What an honor to meet @UaZelenskyy in Kyiv today. Let’s give them what they need to finish the job. @PISM_Poland
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
Russia is weaker as a result of its war on Ukraine. But it retains the capability & will to challenge the US and Europe. The US must remain prepared to confront RU however beleaguered by war it may be. My new piece in @nytopinion w/ @KofmanMichael .
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
Honored and excited to be joining this incredible NSC team. Let's get to work!
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
Great work by @60Minutes . Thanks for having me on to discuss Trump's false claims about what happened in the 2016 election.
@60Minutes
60 Minutes
4 years
Russian President Vladimir Putin found an opportunity to shift the blame for election meddling onto Ukraine, according to former Deputy National Intelligence Officer, Andrea Kendall-Taylor.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
24 days
Russia's war effort in Ukraine has benefitted from China, Iran, and North Korean support. But their collaboration in Ukraine is just the tip of the iceberg. Read our take ( @RHFontaine ) on the Axis of Upheaval. 1/ Paywall free link: .
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
1 year
It is not in Putin's interest to end the war in Ukraine. Fighting on makes sense for Putin personally for one fundamental reason: wartime autocrats rarely lose power. My new piece in @ForeignAffairs w/ Erica Frantz. 1/
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
Biden team is prioritizing anti-corruption, viewing it as a national security imperative. This should be near the top of the agenda for greater Transatlantic cooperation on addressing Russia and China.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
24 days
Countering the Axis of Upheaval starts in Ukraine. Defeating Russia there is the most impactful way to thwart this rising challenge. Washington should not ignore Russian aggression in Europe to focus on rising Chinese power in Asia. They are linked.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
With all the focus on China, @KofmanMichael and I urge Washington to avoid the temptation of looking past Russia to focus on China--Moscow will remain a persistent power and should be rightsized in US thinking and strategy.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
"It would be imprudent for the US to adopt a formal policy of regime change, but Washington need not pull any punches in fear that what follows Putin would be worse." My latest w/ Erica Frantz.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 months
The most likely path to a war w/ Russia is if Putin judges that NATO, & esp the US , lacks the resolve to fight. This could happen for political reasons, or if the US is engaged in a major conflict elsewhere, such as the Indo-Pacific 1/ @POLITICOEurope
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
This is the logic of an authoritarian regime like Putin's Russia--he is inoculating against elite defection that could bring down his regime.
@maxseddon
max seddon
2 years
I've been wondering why Putin pretended to debate the logic of recognition when he had clearly already made up his mind It now looks like some sort of loyalty test – force his top allies, many of whom seemed reluctant, to pledge themselves to the cause.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
This is something to watch. The world now sees Putin differently. I wouldn't be surprised if most Russians now see him differently too.
@SevaUT
Seva
2 years
protests across 53 russian cities, more than 1700 people detained tonight. the regime did not bother with counter-protests. I wonder if Putin underestimated just how unpopular this would be
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
Excited to say that I will be continuing my work at the wonderful @CNASdc —much to do to support the Administration's efforts to manage US-Russia relations and revitalize efforts to work w/ Europe on global challenges.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
In our @ForeignAffairs piece we highlight the risk of insurgency to the Putin regime; 13% of autocrats like Putin are ousted this way. While this attempt is likely to fail, it highlights the risk of bottom up upheaval that plagues longtime personalist autocracies like Putin's.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
This is yet another potential risk to watch; the implosion of Russia's economy will hurt Central Asian economies who are heavily dependent on Russia remittances. Young male workers returning home w/ no economic prospects raises risk of instability there too.
@SevaUT
Seva
2 years
the potential for unrest beyond russia and ukraine is high. The region is linked and disturbances spread. E.g. central asia relies heavily on Rus. remittances. It would be ironic and sad if putin’s attempt to domesticate the region produces another revolutionary wave.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
Russian power and influence may be diminished, but that does not mean Russia will become dramatically less threatening. My @ForeignAffairs piece with @KofmanMichael gauging the nature of the future Russian threat.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
5 years
For the first time, the intelligence community's Annual Threat Assessment included a section on Russia-China relations--noting the deepening ties and expanding cooperation. This is an important shift that we need to address.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
And so we end where we started: Although fraught, the most likely path to a better Russia now runs through Ukrainian success.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
It's out! My co-authored text book on democracy and authoritarian regimes! This began as a labor of love just after the 2016 election...
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
5 years
So this is happening...
@HouseIntelDems
House Intelligence Committee
5 years
On Tuesday, February 26, the Committee will hold an open hearing on the Rise of Authoritarianism. We will examine how the global rise of autocracy effects our national security. Witnesses: @madeleine , @andersfoghr , @tengbiao & @AKendallTaylor Details:
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
One development, however, could spark more substantive change in Russia: a Ukrainian victory. Kyiv’s triumph in the war raises the possibility, even if only slightly, that Putin could be forced out of office, creating an opening for a new style of Russian government.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
A Russian defeat in the war could galvanize the kind of bottom-up pressure that is needed to upend Putin’s regime. Such a development carries risks—of violence, chaos, and even the chance of a more hard-line government emerging in the Kremlin—but it also opens opportunities.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
I don't find the US-RU talks today esp. diagnostic or helpful for understanding the trajectory of the crisis. It seems Ryabkov has maintained maximum flexibility for Putin to ultimately decide.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
Could Russia's relations w/ the West improve after Putin departs? The track record of political transitions that follow the exits of longtime authoritarian leaders offers little room for optimism.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
24 days
Congress passing the supplemental aid bill for Ukraine was an important step. But we have a long way to go. The new axis has already changed the picture of geopolitics—but Washington and its partners can still prevent the world of upheaval the axis hopes to usher in.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
First, the West will likely have to deal w/ Putin for awhile. The historical track-record of long-time personalist autocrats suggests that that once these leaders make it to 20 years in power—and Putin has been there for 23—they tend to make it to about 36 years.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
What is likely to happen in Russia wants Putin departs? In this @TWQgw article Erica Frantz and I examine the transitions of leaders most like Putin (highly personalist, in power >20yrs) to find out. 1/
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
Coups are unlikely in longtime autocracies. Among post–Cold War authoritarian leaders in power for 20 years or more, only ten percent have been ousted in a coup. And when the do happen, the same elite tends to remain in place.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
In the post-Cold War era, authoritarian regimes have outlasted 89% of the longtime leaders who died in office. Even in personalist autocracies, where the question of succession is considerably fraught, the same regime has survived the leader’s death 83% of the time.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
Putin's invasion of Ukraine has done little to change that outlook. Authoritarian leaders rarely lose power while still waging a war they initiated. As long as the war continues, Putin’s position is more secure, making positive change less likely.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
What is more, authoritarian regimes (incl. the same group of regime insiders) most often survive in the wake of the departure of longtime leaders such as Putin; were Putin to die in office or be removed by insiders, the regime would most likely endure intact.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
11 months
In these cases (death in office or coup), the contours of Russian foreign policy would stay largely the same, with the Kremlin locked in a period of protracted confrontation with the West.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
My colleague Erica Frantz and I have done some thinking on leadership transitions in autocracies. A short thread on what events in Kazakhstan might mean for Russia (1)
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
I am excited to announce our new @CNASdc Transatlantic Forum on Russia. It's time for the US and Europe to coordinate and move out on new approaches to addressing Russia.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
New @ChicagoCouncil poll w/ interesting insights on deepening RU-CH partnership: -74% of Russians hold favorable view of China -57% of Russians believe Russia & China will grow closer -56% say respect for CH has grown -55% say RU's ties to CH strengthen RU's position in the world
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
Is Russia a declining power? Is it declining in all ways? If it is in decline, what does it mean for the Kremlin's ability to sustain its aggression? Register now to hear our take @CNASdc 's annual conference @KofmanMichael @RitaKonaev @edwardfishman
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
Early protests, celebrities and athletes speaking out, small signs of elite dissent. How Putin's war on Ukraine could be the beginning of the end of his rule. My latest with Erica Frantz.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
Just one of the many reasons I love studying Putin's Russia: That both of these headlines could simultaneously be true.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
When personalists leaders are forced out of power, they are often exiled, imprisoned, or killed: Since WW2, 69% of such leaders faced a harsh fate after their ousting. Putin likely to fight bitterly to avoid such a fate.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
“In contrast to what technology optimists envisioned at the dawn of the millennium, autocracies are benefiting from the Internet & other new technologies, not falling victim to them.” Check out my latest w/ @EricaFrantz and Joe Wright. @ForeignAffairs .
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
5 years
Big news: my textbook is finished and off to the publisher! A 2-year labor of love as I contemplated how I could play a role in pushing back against so many troubling changes at home and abroad. Coming to you Summer 2019! @EricaFrantz
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
I agree with @carlbildt and @KoriSchake . And that is precisely what the Biden Administration understands--there is no reset with Russia. This will be the first post-Soviet U.S. administration that has not come into office not looking to reset relations with Russia.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
This is so disturbing. This is what populist-fuelled authoritarianism looks like. When vocal critics emerge, aspiring authoritarians frame them as “fifth columnists,” “agents of the establishment,” or other provocateurs seeking to destabilize the system.
@joshtpm
Josh Marshall
4 years
Asked whether the summary firing of LTC Alexander Vindman was justified Graham says Vindman was part of broader plot against President Trump by FBI Agents, CIA Agents and DOJ Lawyers.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
1 year
The US and West must help Ukraine win a decisive battlefield victory that makes Putin's personal incentives irrelevant.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
1 year
It was Putin’s own self-interest that started this war, and it will be his own self-interest that will end it. For now, he has no incentive to stop fighting. That means that the US and West must help Ukraine end it for him.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
Join me tomorrow for a look ahead at the G7, NATO, EU and Geneva Summits w/ the Biden Administration's National Security Council officials @A_Sloat , Daleep Singh, and Eric Green. @CNASdc You don't want to miss this one. Register here:
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
6 years
Very excited to share that I have resigned from the USG and am starting a new chapter at @CNASdc as Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program!
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
24 days
Working together, they enhance one another’s military capabilities; dilute the efficacy of U.S. foreign policy tools, including sanctions; and hinder the ability of Washington and its partners to rally coalitions that can stand against their destabilizing actions
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
5 years
Had a great time talking "all roads lead to Putin" with Andrea Mitchell today! @mitchellreports #MSNBC #NBC @CNASdc ⁩ ⁦ ⁩
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
"The president has sought to portray himself as singularly in charge — except for when things go wrong. In those instances, he has labored to blame others & avoid accountability." This could have been taken from an article on Putin...or any other highly personalist autocrat.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
24 days
Already, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Hamas’s attack on Israel threatens a wider war; Azerbaijan forcibly took control of Nagorno-Karabakh; tensions flared between Serbia and Kosovo; & Venezuela threatened to seize territory in neighboring Guyana. Coups are on the rise.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
Today we protested. For George Floyd. For others before him. To end system racism. To defend our democracy. And to teach the next generation that democracy is not a spectator sport.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
24 days
US policy will need to address the destabilizing effects of revisionist countries’ acting in concert, and it should try to disrupt their coordinated efforts to subvert important international rules and institutions.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
24 days
Moscow has been the main instigator of this axis. The more the Kremlin relies on these countries, the more it must give away in return, increasing the military capabilities of U.S. adversaries and eroding key U.S. advantages.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
24 days
Their convergence is creating an increasingly viable alternative to the US-led order...creating a new center of gravity that other countries dissatisfied with the existing order can turn to. Global orders characterized by 2 competing orders have historically invited conflict.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 months
Does Russia pose a threat to NATO? The answer is yes: "especially if the Kremlin comes to underestimate Western, and most importantly U.S., resolve to fight." @POLITICOEurope
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
Wonderful to see our article on how authoritarians are using technology to enhance their hold on power make the list! w/ @EricaFrantz and Joe Wright
@ForeignAffairs
Foreign Affairs
3 years
As 2020 draws to a close, catch up on the best articles published in Foreign Affairs this year. (thread)
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
6 years
My new piece with @DaveShullman on Russia/China --their foreign policy tactics are different, but they are converging in new and synergistic ways that are having a more corrosive effect on democracy than either would have single-handedly. @ForeignAffairs
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 months
To paraphrase the Congressional testimony of former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mike Milley, while it’s expensive to do what’s necessary to deter major aggression, it would be far more expensive to fight a major war if deterrence fails.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
1 year
Not only does Putin think that the West will tire in its support, but he derives benefits from the continuation of the war: the execution of wars creates dynamics that make it more difficult to orchestrate a dictator’s removal.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
1 year
Dictators who lose wars become more vulnerable to ouster. Although personalist leaders like Putin are more resilient to defeat, his expectations of what happen if he is ousted--likely jailed, exiled, or killed—means he may be especially sensitive to even small increases in risk.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
Putin has just passed constitutional changes that allow him to remain president until 2036. Join us on Wednesday for a "live" #BrusselsSproutspodcast dicussion with @McFaul and @vkaramurza to discuss what it means for Russia and US-Russia relations.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
6 months
Check out or latest Russia stability tracker w/ inputs from leading experts on Russian domestic political dynamics @AngelaStent @samagreene @dstreisman @SevaUT @bdtaylor_SU @timothymfrye & Erica Frantz.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
ICYMI: Check out this @CNASdc -hosted @WarOnTheRocks series examining different components of deepening Russia-China defense relations 1/
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
I agree with @McFaul . This crosses Biden's red line---this is a Russian move across the border and should trigger the first round of "start high stay high" sanctions.
@McFaul
Michael McFaul
2 years
Let's be clear, this act is an invasion of the sovereign country of Ukraine. The West has to react forcefully, not "proportionally," and implement the full range of sanctions they have been promising.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
Fantastic piece by @CNASdc Visiting Fellow @heli_hautala . She helps makes sense of renewed Swedish and Finnish debates about NATO membership amid further Russian aggression in Ukraine.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
Re-upping this piece on Putin's succession conundrum & how succession plays out in authoritarian regimes like Russia. Option 2: "change the constitution to strengthen the legislature or other governing body and then change his job title." @EricaFrantz
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
Great piece by @john_sipher et al. CT is always on the list of shared interests and potential areas of cooperation between the US and Russia-- yet it rarely works in practice.
@john_sipher
John Sipher
4 years
Trump wants the CIA to cooperate with Russia. We tried that. it was a disaster.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
I hope the Biden Administration does indeed move to reinforce the Eastern flank--it is critical to ensure that any conflict is contained and that there are no doubts about alliance resolve.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
1 year
The risks of a long war are not being adequately weighed. The longer the war continues, the more likely it becomes that Western support will wane, leading to the worst possible outcome: one in which Russia is able to expand its territorial control over Ukraine.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
4 years
Check out this great episode of our podcast Brussels Sprouts w/ Russian opposition politician @v_milov . We discuss Russian opposition politics, the US 2020 elections, and the prospects for change in Russia. @jteuropen @CNASdc
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
1 year
Or if Ukraine decides it cannot fully expel Russian forces from its borders, Putin will be unlikely to agree to a settlement—and forgo the stability-enhancing benefits of war—until he confronts the kind of clear defeat that could threaten his hold on power.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
Excited to welcome @KofmanMichael to the team!
@CNASdc
CNAS
3 years
NEW: CNAS welcomes @KofmanMichael to the Center as an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Transatlantic Security Program! Learn more:
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
5 years
Honored to testify alongside @madeleine yesterday on the rise of authoritarianism. @HouseIntel Sharing my written testimony:
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 months
NATO, therefore, needs to build a shared understanding of the threat that opportunistic aggression poses to NATO, and as allies increase defense expenditures, ensure they are investing in the capabilities the US wouldn’t be able to provide if engaged militarily elsewhere.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
Once again, Putin tethering his elite to him. A reminder that their fate is tied to his continued rule.
@maxseddon
max seddon
2 years
Putin has summoned the oligarchs for a meeting in the Kremlin later today, the Kremlin says.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
So, Ryabkov's comments could have been crafted to buy time for RU's military buildup & reduce US & European response & unity (no major pushback if chance for de-escalation remains). Or they could have been crafted to maintain leverage in a future negotiation. Hope it's the latter
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 months
To effectively deter Putin from opportunistically attacking NATO if the US were to be engaged in conflict elsewhere, the alliance must be able to credibly demonstrate it would still retain conventional superiority.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
5 years
Looking forward to testifying tomorrow on the evolving Russia-China relationship. This is such an important topic and glad to see it getting more attention. @USCC_GOV
@USCC_GOV
U.S.-China Commission
5 years
The USCC is holding a public hearing entitled: “An Emerging China-Russia Axis? Implications for the United States in an Era of Strategic Competition” on Thursday, March 21, 2019 in Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room 419. More info: #China #Russia
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
Though authoritarianism typically continues when authoritarian leaders exit, one positive note is that repressive conditions tend to ease in the five-year period afterwards. 8/
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
1 year
As we approach the 1-yr mark of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, come hear from a stellar lineup on how the war and Western support might evolve. @CNASdc Wednesday, February 22, 11AM–12PM EST @KofmanMichael @jeffaedmonds @KadriLiik @shashj @ClaudMajor
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
1 year
If Kyiv can hold Crimea at risk, for example, Putin could see it as in his interest to avoid the domestic risks that come with a decisive defeat and negotiate an end that falls well short of his war aims.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
2 years
For the latest on Ukraine, US and European efforts to support Kyiv, and push back on Putin check out our latest #BrusselsSproutspodcast w/ the always great @carlbildt . @CNASdc @jteurope
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
5 years
"Europe remains convinced they can uphold the values and norms they share w/ Washington while benefitting economically from engagement w/ China. This stance is short-sighted and dangerous—putting liberal democracy in peril." My new piece w/ @RachelRizzo
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
5 years
Protests in Moscow underscore rising discontent in Russia. Data from @ACLEDINFO show that there were 851 protests in Russia from Jan-Jun this year---an increase of 43% from the same period last year (594).
@ruslantrad
Ruslan Trad
5 years
Everything is okay in Moscow.
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
The problems Russia and China pose are distinct, but the convergence of their interests and the complementarity of their capabilities make their combined challenge to U.S. power greater than the sum of its parts. Check out my new piece w/ @DaveShullman
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@AKendallTaylor
Andrea Kendall-Taylor
3 years
I don't typically subscribe to the idea that domestic factors drive Russian foreign policy, but this time I think domestic factors do play a role in Russian military activity on Ukraine's border.
@MoscowTimes
The Moscow Times
3 years
Alexei Navalny said Monday he was suffering from a heavy cough and fever but would continue a hunger strike he launched last week demanding adequate medical treatment
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