Zack Cooper @ZackCooper Twitter profile

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

1 year

What we are seeing now from Japan is remarkable. In coordination with Washington, Tokyo is taking major steps to prepare for a serious contingency. In @WarOnTheRocks today, @DEricSayers and I discuss some of the changes and why they are so momentous.

Japan’s Shift to War Footing - War on the Rocks

Throughout the Cold War, the United States and Japan focused on the threat from the Soviet Union, but with tensions increasing around Taiwan, Tokyo has

warontherocks.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

This is a critical moment for U.S.-China relations. In recent years there has been a debate about the degree to which the United States can shape China’s major strategic decisions. I think that debate may be nearing its end. 🧵 1/9

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

Hey @washingtonpost : I fixed your headline. The real story here isn't the U.S. angering China. The story is China's campaign of economic coercion against Australia backfiring spectacularly. Couldn't have imagined this deal 5 years ago. Give Beijing the credit.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

1 year

President Yoon wants South Korea to be a "global pivotal state" but Seoul is under-institutionalized on the global stage. In a new article, I look at the disconnect between South Korea's new focus and the constraints on the format of its engagement. A short thread... (1/4)

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Good piece by @wstrobel @WSJ on wargaming about Taiwan scenarios. I was on Team China with @becca_wasser - we sunk 2 US aircraft carriers and destroyed 700 US/Japan aircraft. But we still only took 1/3rd of Taiwan before our amphibs were sunk and our invasion petered out.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

6 months

I fear that a serious crisis is unfolding at Second Thomas Shoal. China appears determined to prevent resupply efforts by the Philippines, as they did most dangerously in 2014. Read a short summary of that case here: Risky days ahead. Buckle up.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

8 months

President Biden just announced that he's skipping the East Asia Summit and U.S.-ASEAN Summit in Indonesia. This is a major own goal. It raises questions about whether the United States has a two-tiered approach to Asia. A quick thread... (1/5)

Biden’s Asia Diplomacy Is Still Incomplete - War on the Rocks

Images of President Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida together at Camp David are a powerful

warontherocks.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

I've completed my Washington read of the National Security Strategy. Asia-related mentions: 55 - China/PRC 7 - Taiwan 7 - India 7 - Australia 6 - Quad 5 - Japan 5 - Korea 4 - IPEF 4 - AUKUS 3 - ASEAN 1 - New Zealand 1 - Philippines 1 - Thailand 1 - Indonesia 1 - Pacific Islands

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

This must be a trap.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Where will U.S.-China relations go from here? I think they will worsen, unfortunately. My guess is that we will look back at this period as the point at which the relationship changed permanently. And not for the better. Buckle up. 9/9

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

I've spent much of the last week debating Pelosi's trip to Taiwan with other experts and officials. There is much disagreement on four assessments: 1) Probability of serious incident 2) Probability of war 3) Benefit of visit 4) Cost of rescheduling

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

I have two pieces today on Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan. In the @nytimes , @BonnieGlaser and I argue Pelosi's trip is not advisable at this time. We worry it could precipitate a crisis and put Taiwan in a difficult position. High risk, low reward. 1/8

Opinion | Nancy Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Is Too Dangerous (Published 2022)

She should postpone until the U.S. clarifies its Taiwan policy.

www.nytimes.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

The White House just declassified its Asia strategy (or "framework"). Let's talk about the details. A thread: 1) In my view, the initial framing is wrong. The strategy aims "to maintain U.S. strategic primacy in the Indo-Pacific." But is primacy realistic? Or sensible?

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

For years, Beijing decried "China hawks" for damaging US-China relations. But much of the damage done in the last few months has been by the Communist Party and its Foreign Ministry. Beijing's own propaganda campaign is convincing Americans that we're in an ideological struggle.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Plus, as we @SecureDemocracy show in this new analysis, China is actually ramping up its efforts to support Russian narratives about Ukraine. Beijing is aligning MORE with Moscow, despite the damage that this is likely to do to its reputation abroad.

China’s State Media and Government Officials Are Backing Russia on Ukraine

securingdemocracy.gmfus.org

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

5 years

Extremely significant policy shift: “As the South China Sea is part of the Pacific, any armed attack on Philippine forces, aircraft or public vessels in the South China Sea will trigger mutual defense obligations under Article 4 of our mutual defense treaty.” -Pompeo (in Manila)

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

The White House just released the first U.S. strategy for the Pacific Islands! This is a good move. For too long the United States has under-invested in the Pacific. So what does the strategy get right and wrong? Here's a🧵with a few initial thoughts...

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

Want an example of bad alliance management? Read today's WSJ op-ed by SecState and SecDef. Asking allies to do more is fine. But our focus should be on total capabilities, not cash payments. Op-eds are the wrong way to negotiate with friends. What a mess.

Opinion | South Korea Is an Ally, Not a Dependent

Seoul can and should contribute more to its own national defense.

www.wsj.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

The biggest news out of the Quad may be one of the items that got the least attention: providing space-based radio frequency data across the Indo-Pacific. @GregPoling and I explain why this is a big deal via @WarOnTheRocks .

The Quad Goes to Sea - War on the Rocks

The biggest announcement from President Joe Biden’s trip to Asia may be the one that got the least attention. The Quad, a grouping consisting of

warontherocks.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

6 years

HOW allies spend is as important as how much. We want differentiation and specialization in allied capabilities 👍 We will get duplication and autonomy if allies think we are unreliable 👎 By threatening alliances, US may decrease burdensharing, even if allies spend more.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Is the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan dead? No. But I think it is on life support. Here's why: The question now is whether the United States can maintain a policy that its leaders don't follow. A quick 🧵 (1/6)

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

1 year

It pains me to write this, but I'm worried about the new AUKUS plan. I have been very impressed by recent U.S. progress with Japan, Philippines, and Pacific Islands. But I think this plan has several design flaws. A short thread explaining my concerns...

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

This is easily my biggest success of the pandemic.

Room Rater

@ratemyskyperoom

3 years

Love the bookcase. Suspended globe. Books. Art. Green. 9/10 @ZackCooper

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

A decade ago I took a class on “International Strategy” from Tom Christensen, which helped convince me a PhD would be a useful endeavor. I never would have imagined that I’d be headed back to Princeton today to teach that course. Sometimes the world is an amazing place.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

So now the Chinese Communist Party is openly threatening U.S. think tanks. We've stood with Michael Kovrig and ICG. We'll stand with NED, NDI, IRI, HRW, Freedom House, and others. This will backfire against Beijing.

China Hits Back at U.S. Over Hong Kong Bill in a Mostly Symbolic Move (Published 2019)

Beijing said it would suspend visits to Hong Kong by American warships and impose sanctions on several nongovernmental groups. The measures suggest China is wary of upsetting trade negotiations.

www.nytimes.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

9 months

With news breaking that the United States, Japan, and South Korea are agreeing on a "commitment to consult" -- here's a comparison with the consultation commitment wording in actual U.S. treaty alliances. Thanks to the excellent @Connor_Fiddler @AEIfdp for pulling this together!

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

1 year

In a new report, I argue that the nature of alignment in Asia in changing. The era of coalitions is upon us. 3 big shifts: unipolarity ➡️ multipolarity alliances ➡️ alignments multilateralism ➡️ minilateralism A thread on my @ISEAS essay, their new poll, and the implications...

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

We have a new U.S. strategy for Asia! Tony Blinken just outlined five pillars in Indonesia: 1) Advance free and open Indo-Pacific 2) Forge stronger connections 3) Promote broad-based prosperity 4) Build more resilient region 5) Bolster security

Secretary Blinken to Deliver a Speech on the United States and the...

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will deliver a speech on the United States' approach to the Indo-Pacific in Jakarta, Indonesia----------Under the leader...

www.youtube.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

If the administration is serious about shifting its attention to the Indo-Pacific, the first thing it has to do is show up. And listen. The center of gravity in the competition with China is the alignment of regional states. We have to stop shooting ourselves in the foot. Fin.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

These four emerging coalitions will be separate: -Geostrategic (Quad+?) -Economic (G7?) -Technological (T12?) -Governance (D10?) But all have two countries in common: the US 🇺🇸 + Japan 🇯🇵 The burden we need to share is coalition strategy and prioritization, not cash transfers.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

5 months

Does America have a China strategy? I don't think so. A strategy usually has ends, ways, and means. We have adopted a strategy focused on competition - which is a way, not an end. Today in @ChinaFile and @ForeignPolicy I make the case for a new approach.

Does America Have an End Game on China?

This fall, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan noted that the Biden administration is “often asked about the end state of U.S. competition with China.” He argued that “we do not expect a

www.chinafile.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

The best part of working in Washington DC is when friends, colleagues, and mentors take on critical tasks in government. To everyone headed in tomorrow and in the days that follow: Your success is our success. Work hard. Do good. Make us proud. And thank you for serving! 🇺🇸

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Observers should not expect progress from tomorrow's Sullivan-Yang meeting. It was scheduled before the Ukraine invasion and as recent reporting indicates, the two sides appear as far apart as ever.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

A story of U.S. engagement in Asia in three acts. Act 1: Today, U.S. released an Indo-Pacific update that begins, “President Donald J. Trump has made U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific region a top priority of his Administration.”

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

But it looks like China's approach to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may be the ultimate test. It is weakening Russia and strengthening cooperation among democracies. So some in China have suggested that Beijing change its approach.

Opinion | It’s Time to Offer Russia an Offramp. China Can Help With That. (Published 2022)

China is uniquely placed to play the role of mediator for economic, political and ideological reasons.

www.nytimes.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

For many years, U.S. policy was premised on the goal of convincing China to become a “responsible stakeholder” – to “work with us to sustain the international system that has enabled its success.”

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

I often complain about lack of US execution in Asia, but Biden has had three big and unexpected wins so far: - Quad vaccine initiative - Philippines VFA - US-UK-AU subs Now let’s articulate a positive regional strategy (including on trade!) and we’ll really be cooking with fire.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Although some in the Trump administration rejected this approach, President Trump still signed the “Phase One” trade deal – we now know it was a massive failure. Some in the Biden administration hoped climate could be an area of cooperation.

China bought none of the extra $200 billion of US exports in Trump's trade deal

Two years ago, President Donald Trump signed what he called a "historical trade deal" with China that committed China to purchase $200 billion of additional US exports before December 31, 2021. Today...

www.piie.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

There is merit to testing this logic, as a number of us argue below. Either Beijing will moderate its approach. Or we will at least have shown the world that we tried. But I have to admit that I think the odds of success are low.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

(For up to the minute data, head to our Ukraine Dashboard, which tracks Russian and Chinese messaging on Ukraine. You'll see lots of disinformation from both about biological weapons labs.)

War in Ukraine

securingdemocracy.gmfus.org

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

6 years

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi trolling the Trump administration: “when I first heard this figure of $113 million I thought I heard wrong. At least it should be 10 times higher, for a superpower with $16 trillion of GDP.” Let the games begin...

US announces US$300 million to fund security cooperation in Indo-Pacific region

The funding is on the back of the US$113 million economic initiatives unveiled earlier in the week. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

7 years

We've spent the last two years figuring out how to counter Chinese coercion -- read our concise 300-page study here:

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

Australia acquiring nuclear-power submarines? In 2013, I explained why this made sense (alongside @IskanderRehman and Jim Thomas at @CSBA_ ): - More endurance✅ - Larger payloads ✅ - Quieter at speed✅ Will the U.S. deploy its own SSNs to Australia too?

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

1 year

What is the logic behind America’s China strategy? In a new article, the fantastic @EmilyYoungCarr and I analyze four different schools of thought: 1) Responsible Stakeholder 2) Communist Collapse 3) Constructive Cooperation 4) Managed Competition A short 🧵 on our findings...

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

In a new piece, @SheenaGreitens and I ask what roles U.S. allies and partners might play in a conflict with China over Taiwan. It would, or course, depend on the exact scenario, but we conclude that this is probably the best case for Washington:

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

6 years

Some personal news: After four great years @CSIS , I'm heading over to @AEI ! Big thanks to @kath_hicks , twitterless Mike Green, and the rest of the CSIS team! Excited to kick off a few big projects on U.S. strategy and alliances in Asia, including a new book!

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

1 year

Let's be 100% clear: If POTUS cancels portions of his Asia visit it will do real damage to the U.S. argument that we are a reliable partner. Visits matter in Asia. Including cancelled ones. We can argue about whether that should be the case, but that's the reality.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Every game is different but this one served as a reminder that in some ways an invasion of Taiwan is easier for us to defeat than: - Blockade - Missile bombardment - Outlying island seizure Thanks to Eric Heginbotham and @MarkCancian for including me.

War Game Finds U.S., Taiwan Can Defend Against a Chinese Invasion

A complex daylong war game, played out recently at a Washington think tank, demonstrated how destructive any attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be across the Indo-Pacific.

www.wsj.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

The Phase One deal is failing. The administration promised a "distrust and verify" approach, but China is $40B behind on promised purchases. And data shows the pandemic isn't the whole explanation. Derek Scissors and I explore what's next @RealClearWorld

Phase One Is a Failure

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently suggested the United States should approach China with a “distrust and verify” mindset. If the Secretary speaks for President Trump, the &

www.realclearworld.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Even now that it appears Pelosi will go to Taiwan tomorrow, I don't think a conflict is inevitable. In fact, I think it is quite unlikely. We should not panic. But the risks are real. And they compound with every crisis. So I hope all sides manage the next few days responsibly.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

8 months

China's foreign ministry spokesperson is accusing the United States of having a "Cold War mentality" for cooperating with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. I'm no Cold War historian, but I don't remember Washington and Hanoi having a comprehensive strategic partnership... 🤔

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

5 years

Excited to be joining @rosenbergerlm and team as @SecureDemocracy co-director! We’ve got a lot of work to do to help safeguard our democracy against foreign interference. So do our friends. Big thanks to @AEI for encouraging this important bipartisan work.

Alliance for Securing Democracy

@SecureDemocracy

5 years

We’re delighted to welcome @ZackCooper as ASD’s co-director! He’ll work with @rosenbergerlm to lead our bipartisan team dedicated to countering authoritarian interference in democracies, in addition to his role @AEI .

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Long-term U.S. policy remains ambiguous. No one knows what the U.S. will do if Taiwan is attacked in 5 years. But I think it is quite clear what Biden would do if Taiwan is attacked tomorrow. How long can the U.S. maintain a policy that its leaders don't follow? (6/6)

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

Wow. Congress is getting serious about oversight and reporting requirements on the Indo-Pacific in the 2020 NDAA. Here’s a list of some NDAA reporting requirements related to Asia:

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

What is "Integrated Deterrence"? I think I figured it out... Integrated deterrence proponents stress four themes: 1) Incorporating non-military tools 2) Involving allies and partners 3) Application across full spectrum of conflict 4) Rapidity of decision-making and innovation

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

The United States and China got their "report cards" from Southeast Asia this week via @ISEAS 's 2021 Survey. This should be required reading for anyone focused on dynamics in Asia. How did we do? Let's take a look...

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

The State Dept made a smart shift on China's maritime claims. Today @WarOnTheRocks , @BonnieGlaser and I examine five possible options now "on the table": -Economic sanctions -Increased patrols -Direct support -Capacity building -Collective statements

What Options are On the Table in the South China Sea? - War on the Rocks

U.S. policy in the South China Sea hasn’t dented Chinese coercion against its neighbors, so the Trump administration is upping the ante. Last Monday, U.S.

warontherocks.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Where I think my assessment differs most from some others is on the cost-benefit of the visit. I think the upside is small and the potential downsides substantial. So I thought rescheduling would have been wise. But many other experts disagree on all four points above.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

Are sanctions meant to compel a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine or use brute force to hurt Putin? Policymakers usually frame sanctions as a coercive tool, but I suspect they will operate more as brute force. This creates a war termination challenge. Here's why... (1/7)

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

1 year

There are numerous political and technical challenges ahead, but that is natural since many of these reforms would have been hard to imagine just a few years ago. Great work by Japan and the U.S. government on these alliance resourcing, posture, and capability initiatives.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

Controversial view: We should stop using the term "great power competition" Why? - Conflates China + Russia (btw, not a great power) - Implies values are secondary to power - Minimizes ally/partner roles Here's my piece for the "Bad Ideas" series @CSIS :

Bad Idea: "Great Power Competition" Terminology | Defense360

The 2018 National Defense Strategy called out the "reemergence of long-term, strategic competition." While this was a smart shift in focus, the widely used "great power competition" is the wrong term...

defense360.csis.org

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

9 months

Looking for some light summer reading? Here's a quick summary of the key Indo-Pacific provisions in the House and Senate National Defense Authorization bills from @Connor_Fiddler and me for @AEIdeas . Clearly tons of interest in Asia on the Hill!

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

My new piece @WarOnTheRocks analyzes the White House's China strategy. I've heard five critiques: 1) Too confrontation for admin critics 2) Too restrained for CCP critics 3) Too transactional for allies 4) Too values-based for Trump 5) Too late to matter

Five Critiques of the Trump Administration’s China Strategy - War on the Rocks

In May, the Trump administration issued a new report detailing its “Strategic Approach to The People’s Republic of China.” The strategy is the

warontherocks.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

6 years

I wonder whether historians will describe this as the end of the "Inter-Cold War" period. "Post-Cold War" no longer fits as US-China ties break: - Cancelled visits - Trade war - SCS incident - Chip hacking - VP speech 1991-2018 looking more like the "Interwar Period" 1919-1939.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

I'll have much more to say soon, but for now here's my Reviewer 2 comment: The National Security Strategy does not mention Zack Cooper (not even a footnote!). I can only imagine that this must have been an oversight by the authors so I recommend that they revise and resubmit.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

For the sake of clarity, I think the probability of China's response triggering a serious incident (akin to a fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis) is low - maybe 20%. But my confidence level is also low. I feel more confident that a major conflict is unlikely. But it is not impossible.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

5 years

We need a strategy to protect rules, relationships, and resources in the South China Sea, and Southeast Asia more broadly. FONOPs are necessary, but not sufficient, @GregPoling and I argue in @ForeignPolicy .

America’s Freedom of Navigation Operations Are Lost at Sea

Far wider measures are needed to challenge Beijing’s maritime aggression.

foreignpolicy.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

The PRC's twitter propaganda is SO bad. Example #284 : PRC embassy invokes one of Aesop's fables, which ends: "The tyrant can always find an excuse for its tyranny." Who is the tyrant? The wolf. What does PRC embassy say China is? The wolf. 🤦‍♂️ h/t: @thomaswright08

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

In @ForeignAffairs today, @AdamPLiff and I argue that US leaders need to shift from talk to action in Asia. Nearly 10 years ago, Obama promised that the US would rebalance to Asia. How have we done? The results are mixed, at best. A short 🧵

America Still Needs to Rebalance to Asia

After ten years of talk about Asia, Washington must act

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

The Defense Futures Simulator is here! Want to know how defense strategy translates into defense spending? Well we have a website for you. Over the last year, @AEI @CSIS and @WarOnTheRocks jointly built a defense simulator, which is now live.

Defense Futures Simulator: Revolutionizing the Defense Budget

To use the tool and for more information, please visit https://www.defensefutures.net/ or contact us at [email protected] American Enterprise Institu...

www.youtube.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

Asia nerds: We read the 2021 NDAA so you don't have to! The Pacific Deterrence Initiative (Sec 1251) will get lots of attention, but there are 40+ other sections that touch directly on U.S. strategy, alliances and partnerships, or competition with China.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien wrote an op-ed explaining "Why the U.S. Is Moving Troops Out of Germany." I have some questions.

Opinion | Why the U.S. Is Moving Troops Out of Germany

Forces are needed in the Indo-Pacific. And Berlin should contribute more to European security.

www.wsj.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

For the fourth time in just over a year, Joe Biden has made a statement that appears to recalibrate US policy on Taiwan. What should we make of this? My five key points...

The Fourth Taiwan Strait Slip-Up

For the fourth time in just over a year, Joe Biden has made a statement that appears to recalibrate US policy on Taiwan. Zack Cooper considers five implications of this shift for US policy in the...

www.aei.org

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

Join us Tuesday at 1 PM for the rollout of the Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Power Report! Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, will walk us through the report and discuss some big changes to this year’s version.

Assessing China’s Military: An Inside Look at the Department of Defense’s China Military Power...

AEI’s Zack Cooper and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Chad Sbragia discuss China’s military and security developments as described in the 2020 China Military Power Report.

www.aei.org

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

Excited to get back in the (virtual) classroom teaching the theoretical foundations of US-China dynamics @GeorgetownCSS and @PrincetonSPIA this semester. Security scholars tend to be pessimists, but what an exciting time to be studying Asian security - so much great new work!

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

To close out 2020, @HalBrands and I explain why there won’t be a single “alliance of democracies” to counter China. 1) This is a far more multipolar competition than the Cold War. 2) Coalitions will form around issues, not fixed blocs. (1/3)

The Great Game With China Is 3D Chess

Washington’s new rivalry with Beijing isn’t a reprise of the Cold War. It’s much more complicated.

foreignpolicy.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

This month marks 10 years since the Pivot to Asia. How have we done? In a new report, @AdamPLiff and I assess to Pivot's successes and failures. We conclude that the basic strategy remains correct. But implementation has been spotty, at best. (1/2)

10 Years After ‘the Pivot’: Still America’s Pacific Century?

To get America back on track in Asia, the Biden administration and Congress must prioritize three urgent course corrections: (1) re-centering US strategy on the region as a whole, rather than on...

www.aei.org

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 months

Out today, @HalBrands and I assess six strategic tradeoffs for deterrence in Asia via the Marshall Papers @CSIS : 1) Survivability vs Lethality 2) Conceal vs Reveal 3) Close-in vs Stand-off 4) Speed vs Sustainability 5) Sovereignty vs Efficiency 6) Gray zone vs High intensity

CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies

@CSISFreeman

2 months

In the latest The Marshall Papers report, @KissingerCenter @HalBrands and @AEI @PrincetonSPIA @ZackCooper explore recent evolutions in U.S. deterrence strategy in the Western Pacific, and assess the trade-offs U.S. leaders must confront in the coming years.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

5 years

This looks bad. I was with Michael at a conference in Beijing this summer, along with other academics / think tankers. We don't know the details, but if he was arrested in response to Meng Wanzhou's arrest, it will have a chilling effect among experts.

Trump says he would intervene if needed in Justice Dept. case against Chinese telecom executive...

The president, when asked in a Reuters interview, said he would be willing to intervene in the U.S. request to extradite Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou if it would help advance a U.S.-China trade deal.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

5 years

Think the US-Australia alliance is in great shape? Look at this brutal polling on how young Australians see the United States. Time to get back to basics on the alliance. Hard to read, but great work by @natashaskassam and the team @LowyInstitute . Link:

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

5 years

This @pewresearch report is important, but painful to read as an American. 67% of South Koreans, 66% of Japanese, and 36% of Aussies say U.S. power and influence is a major threat to their countries. Concern high in NATO too. Ouch.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

1 year

Lloyd Austin called the new agreement with the Philippines a “very big deal” - he’s right Here is my take for @NewsHour on the implications and what challenges lay ahead

PBS NewsHour

@NewsHour

1 year

The U.S. and the Philippines reached an agreement today expanding the American military footprint in the country. To analyze what this means for America’s goals in that region, @GeoffRBennett spoke with @ZackCooper .

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

6 years

"Free and Open" Indo-Pacific defined by @SecPompeo : Free = 🔸Protection from coercion 🔸Good governance 🔸Fundamental rights / liberties Open = 🔹Access to seas and airways 🔹Peaceful resolution of disputes 🔹Fair and reciprocal trade 🔹Investment 🔹Transparency 🔹Connectivity

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

6 years

Out now in the U.S. Naval War College Review: Hal Brands and I outline the four strategic options available to the United States in the South China Sea.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 months

Come work with me! We @AEI are hiring a research assistant to work on Indo-Pacific issues with Mike Beckley, Eric Sayers, and me. We've had a track record of wonderful RAs, all of whom have gone on to do great things, so apply here:

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

The House and Senate NDAAs include many important provisions on Asia. Lots of bipartisan agreement on the region’s importance, including the Pacific Deterrence Initiative and Indo-Pacific Reassurance Initiative. Here’s my short summary of what to watch:

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

1) Pelosi likely thinks the trip is stabilizing. Deterrence is eroding, so a visit demonstrates commitment. But I think Xi is most likely to act when backed into a corner. So I'd prefer we focus on quietly bolstering our and Taiwan's capabilities. Less rhetoric, more action. 3/8

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

Every once in a while you get a chance to work on something really important and educational. This is one of those pieces for me. I'm SUPER excited to have this piece out with DASD(!) @lindseywford in @TXNatSecReview . We spent years working on it. [1/10]

America's Alliances After Trump: Lessons from the Summer of '69 - Texas National Security Review

Richard Nixon's 1969 Guam doctrine led America's allies in Asia to pursue a variety of strategies based on perceptions of America's reliability. If the Biden administration wants to strengthen the...

tnsr.org

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

Xi Jinping championed four principles at the UN today: ▪️Justice 🤔 Xinjiang? ▪️Rule of law 🤔 Hong Kong? ▪️Cooperation 🤔 Wolf Warrior diplomacy? ▪️Real action 🤔 IP theft? The CCP should embrace these principles itself before advocating them abroad.

Full text: Xi Jinping's speech at high-level meeting to mark UN's 75th anniversary

Full text of Chinese President Xi Jinping's address via video link at a high-level meeting to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the United Nations.

news.cgtn.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

8 months

Great to be back in Taiwan and getting a chance to spend time with old friends here and discuss both recent US-Taiwan cooperation and the work we still have ahead of us.

蔡英文 Tsai Ing-wen

@iingwen

8 months

Glad to welcome our friends from @CSIS back to #Taiwan . I hope this visit will help CSIS, a leading think tank, gain deeper insight into Taiwan, as we work with the #US & other international partners to enhance democratic resilience & uphold peace & stability in the #IndoPacific .

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

1 year

Has a Biden doctrine emerged yet? I don't think so. Instead, Biden is combining elements of his last three predecessors' doctrines: - Bush's freedom agenda (pro-democracy) - Obama's don't do stupid sh*t (pro-restraint) - Trump's American first (on trade) [1/2]

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

6 years

The Trump administration is pursuing two separate Asia policies: 1) Trump's approach, 2) his administration's. This can't last. My take on "A Tale of Two Asia Policies" in @WarOnTheRocks :

A Tale of Two Asia Policies

The United States has “abandoned its traditional presence in the Asia Pacific,” declares Korean expert Oh Ei Sun. “Donald Trump is checking out of Asia,”

warontherocks.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

Act 2: U.S. declines to send the President, Vice President, or Secretary of State to the East Asia Summit or ASEAN meetings. Here’s who led U.S. delegation to EAS in last decade: 2010: SECSTATE(S) 2011: POTUS(P) 2012: P 2013: S 2014: P 2015: P 2016: P 2017: S 2018: VP

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

President Trump was apparently quite clear in 2019: "Taiwan is like two feet from China... We are eight thousand miles away. If they invade, there isn’t a f*cking thing we can do about it." (2/6)

Trump Wasn’t Going to Do ‘a Fucking Thing’ If China Invaded Taiwan, a New Book Says

Behind closed doors, Trump had few supportive words for its democratic ally.

www.vice.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

5 years

In the @washingtonpost , @rosenbergerlm and I argue that China’s information operations against Hong Kong protesters are a reminder that we need to get our own house in order. There’s no time to waste. @AEIfdp @SecureDemocracy

Opinion | Why it’s time for the U.S. to start pushing back against Chinese information operations

Social media is rife with foreign interference. Congress can't wait on taking action.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

2 years

So U.S. policy is to remain ambiguous, but those who would actually make these decisions have themselves been quite clear about their intentions. I think these have been gaffes—not intended policy changes—but as @JonahDispatch notes, they add up. (5/6)

When Gaffes Become Policy

What’s more worrisome than denying the reality of Joe Biden’s verbal mistakes is making his verbal mistakes reality.

thedispatch.com

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

3 years

I know some folks are reading a lot into the "secure and prosperous" wording in readouts of President-elect Biden's calls with Asian leaders. Just a friendly reminder: "secure" and "prosperous" are not new -- they were the top terms Obama used to describe the pivot's aims.

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

Act 3: ASEAN leaders “unhappy” Trump skipped meeting, downgrade own attendance at ASEAN-U.S. Summit. In response, U.S. “diplomat” criticizes ASEAN for trying to “embarrass the President” and says “this will be very damaging to ASEAN-U.S. relations.”

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

4 years

Incredibly excited that @KoriSchake is joining @AEI as the director of foreign and defense policy studies (and my boss). Such a fantastic move. A great scholar. A great policymaker. Thrilled to have her leading our team. (1/2)

Kori Schake Joins AEI as Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Washington, December 11, 2019 — American Enterprise Institute (AEI) President Robert Doar announced today that Kori Schake has joined AEI as the director of foreign and defense...

www.aei.org

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Zack Cooper

@ZackCooper

23 days

There are some critical announcements this week about key Asian treaty allies. But how is the U.S. doing elsewhere in the region? Last week we got a report card from the 2024 ISEAS Survey. And it isn't great news. A short thread... [1/9]

America's Report Card in Southeast Asia - War on the Rocks

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the 2024 ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute State of Southeast Asia Survey, in which regional experts assess power trends and

warontherocks.com

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