.
@olliecarroll
& I write on Ukraine post-supplemental. Tense few weeks ahead, but pressure abates if Ukr gets to late 2024. “Russian defence industrial capacity maxes out in 2025” says a Western official. Ukr offensive options still seem distant, though.
Biden, last month: "The Taliban is not the North Vietnamese army. They’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of the embassy of the United States from Afghanistan."
All this hand-wringing at Austin's comment that US wants to see a weakened Russia. Russia has spent the last decade seeking to weaken the US & Europe. It has spent the last two months seeking to erase the Ukrainian state. Weakening Russia has costs, but it is in NATO's interest.
Sweden & Finland will be big assets to NATO. Highly integrated with each other, highly inter-operable with NATO & in the latter case the largest artillery force in Europe, among other strengths. Their membership will also make it easier to defend NATO's northern flank & Baltics.
Ouch. ‘…“We know Germany is pretty penetrated by Russian intelligence so it just demonstrates they are neither secure nor reliable,” Ben Wallace, the former defence secretary, said….’
Heads of MI5 and FBI gave their first ever joint speech at Thames House in London this afternoon to audience of business & academic leaders, on danger of Chinese espionage. MI5's Ken McCallum warned of "coordinated campaign on a grand scale" & "strategic contest across decades".
Striking satellite imagery taken on Monday of the Mariupol Drama Theatre—hit by an air strike today. 1,200 civilians were sheltering in it. The image shows that the word “children” is written in Russian in large white letters in front of & behind the theatre.
(📸:
@Maxar
)
It will never stop being funny that a war launched to capture Kyiv in a few days has resulted in an attempted insurrection by the presidential caterer.
“in some cases, Russian troops have deliberately punched holes in their vehicles’ gas tanks, presumably to avoid combat, the official said. The Pentagon official declined to say how the military made these assessments”
“The Royal Navy is ending its century-old tradition of having Chinese servants on warships amid fears that they could be forced to spy for Beijing. Hundreds of Chinese laundrymen have worked on Britain’s warships since the 1930”
Very hard to tell what happened: we only have corpses with hands bound and gunshot wounds to the head, eyewitness accounts of non-combatants being executed, and electronic intercepts of Russian soldiers discussing the targeting of civilians to go on. It's a real mystery, John.
I've been asked, repeatedly, and by serious people, why the media circulated "disinformation" around Hamas beheading babies. It was not disinformation. There was first-hand evidence from the start. You just didn't want to see it.
To every October 7th truther who has, for two weeks, denied the first-hand testimony that was already available and published, here is the head of Israel's national forensic medical centre. "Many bodies, including those of babies, are without heads."
Trump could withdraw from Nato, publicly burn the North Atlantic Charter & personally shoot the secretary general and you’d still have people out in force arguing it’s campaign rhetoric, an elaborate negotiation gambit, that critics are pearl-clutching alarmists, etc.
If true, another violation of Geneva Conventions: “Sometimes they use this tactic - first, they raise a white flag above their equipment, then come closer to our positions. When we come up and kind of take them as prisoners of war, they start to open fire”
Jaw-dropping. Borrell says EU military package may include "supplying fighter jets" for Ukraine's air force, EU has spoken w/ Ukrainian foreign minister "about the type of jets the Ukrainian military needs" & there are "member states...able to supply them"
Western official: "Even when the Russians take a village or town the Ukrainians frequently counter attack immediately. So Russians have no time to bed down or control the situation. And they're immediately on the back foot again."
Israel is not engaged in the "deliberate mass killing of civilians". I will repeat that as many times as needed despite the obtuse trolling to the contrary. Criticise & condemn the war all you like, but there is no evidence Israel's war is aimed at murdering civilians.
Ukraine's night-time drone ops. “We look specifically for the most valuable truck in the convoy and then we hit it precisely and we can do it really well with very low collateral damage — even in the villages...You can get much closer at night.”
The fact that the US Air Force is now making bespoke drones for Ukraine and boasting about it publicly is not a great sign for Russia’s longer-term prospects in this war.
DOD: "Phoenix Ghost" drones were rapidly developed by USAF in response to Ukrainian requirements. They have 'similar capabilities' to the Switchblades. >121 going to Ukraine. Will require 'minimal training'
Whoa.
“We believe that this is the only thing that can stop the Russian forces from perpetrating more atrocities,” said one senior Czech defence official, adding that the [T-72] tank deliveries so far had been gifts rather than sales.
My piece on Finland’s rapid moves towards a NATO bid. Gov’t update on security policy due Apr 14th. Things could move fast after that. “I'm pretty confident we will be filing the membership agreement…in a few weeks’ time” as MP
@elinavaltonen
told me.
The evidence this morning, though NOT conclusive by any means, points more towards a failed rocket launch than an Israeli air strike. Last night’s rush to judgment, including by major regional powers, was premature, cynical and irresponsible. More evidence still needed.
No crater or obvious shrapnel pattern consistent with standard IAF JDAM/Mk80 series bombs visible in this image. Still not conclusive, but IF this is the extent of the damage then I’d say an airstrike looks less likely than a rocket failure causing an explosion and fuel fire.
Top work. “an eight-month visual investigation by The New York Times concluded that the perpetrators of the [Bucha] massacre along Yablunska Street were Russian paratroopers from the 234th Air Assault Regiment led by Lt. Col. Artyom Gorodilov”
A sad moment. “On Wednesday, the Washington-based magazine [National Geographic] that has surveyed science and the natural world for 135 years … “aid off all of its last remaining staff writers.” Had 12 million subscribers at peak in 1980s.
Ukrainian units around Kyiv say that the SAS has been training them in Ukraine in the last two weeks on the use of NLAWs. “British special forces had come to instruct a battalion in Obolon, on the outskirts of Kyiv.”
CIA Director: “Putin’s bet right now is that he is going to be tougher than the Ukrainians, the Europeans, the Americans…I believe, and my colleagues at C.I.A. believe, that Putin is as wrong about that bet as he was profoundly wrong in his assumptions”
Taiwan has vocally backed Ukraine, Japanese leaders keep turning up in Kyiv & South Korea underwrote last year’s offensive with shells. Sure seems like US’ Asian allies don’t see Ukraine as a grave distraction from Indo-Pac.
Japan's newly appointed Foreign Minister, Yoko Kamikawa, just made a surprise visit to Ukraine.
She pledged $37 million to support a Ukrainian anti-drone system.
She said Japan will "keep supporting Ukraine so that peace can be restored."
🧵This week The Economist spoke to Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, on the state of the war. It’s a fascinating & important interview. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.”
My piece on mass expulsion of over 400 Russian diplomats from Europe in recent days. It means that roughly half of undeclared Russian intelligence officers in legal rezidenturas (stations) in Europe are being kicked out. A big blow to SVR, GRU & FSB.
"This is a text-book case of genocide." How any sane person could write this, let alone a UN official, is incredible. It's possible to believe that Israel's war is wrong, or excessively destructive, or imprudent without resorting to the idea that its aim is to wipe out civilians.
Last paragraph best tells how international law & international rules based order are coming apart, w support of the very world powers that tout its values & claim to be defending it. The American-backed world order will not be able to easily reverse this blow to its…
It looks like Putin and Shoigu want to centralize the PMC's under their command. All voluntary fighters who are fighting for Russia have to sign a contract with the Russian Federation as of 1 July 2023. This also applies to Wagner, led by Prigozhin.
Shoigu pulls the strings.
Many odd & offensive claims in this Pankaj Mishra piece, but my favourite is the reference to Rishi Sunak’s “showy Hinduism”. Trying to imagine any Guardian columnist using the phrase “showy Muslim” or “showy Jew”
“in some cases, Russian troops have deliberately punched holes in their vehicles’ gas tanks, presumably to avoid combat, the official said. The Pentagon official declined to say how the military made these assessments”
Ukraine’s offensive is going so badly that [checks notes] Russia might be forced to use nuclear weapons. Sometimes you wish the propaganda had a tad more finesse.
Remarkable turnaround. On March 8th Swedish PM said NATO bid "would further destabilise the security of this particular region of Europe". Now: "The Social Democrats' party leadership has decided. Magdalena Andersson's goal is for Sweden to join NATO in June this year."
Russian regions will soon have the authority to establish their own private military companies and arm them, according to the proposed amendments being rushed through the State Duma. 1/5
If you're wondering why an army of truculent cartoon dogs has been haranguing Russian diplomats on Twitter, wonder no further: I wrote a piece on the phenomenon of
#NAFO
: shitposting, satire & information warfare rolled into one. Enjoy, fellas.
Blinken lays out red lines: "no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Not now, not after the war. No use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism...No reoccupation of Gaza...No attempt to blockade or besiege Gaza. No reduction in the territory"
“Without allowing details of their preparations to leak out…they [Ukrainians] seem to have constructed a number of specialized combat brigades with lighter, faster wheeled vehicles. This has allowed them a crucial mobility advantage over their enemy.”
Congratulations on your life choices if you think the real issue at stake is arguing with strangers on the internet about the precise means by which babies were murdered.
A point of no return. Largest forcible annexation of European territory since WW2. Commits him to defend it in perpetuity & capture the parts of it he doesn't occupy (lots). Prevents him giving it back to Ukraine as part of a settlement. And increases risk of escalation.
The Kremlin says Putin will sign decrees tomorrow at 3pm local time to “annex” the four regions of partially-occupied southeastern Ukraine where sham “referendums” were held at gun point. Putin will also deliver a speech. via state propaganda agency RIA.
Honestly, you’d think we were on the cusp of invading Iraq. We’re likely talking targeted & limited attacks on Houthi missile facilities. Good or bad, effective or futile, it’s not major escalation & it’s not going to lead to a major war.
UK announces it's sending more than 20 M109 155mm self-propelled guns and 36 L119 105mm artillery guns to Ukraine ("will soon arrive"). Counter-battery radar systems and more than 50,000 rounds of ammunition for Soviet-era artillery "will also follow".
"Two days before Alexei Navalny was pronounced dead...several officers from the FSB, the Russian intelligence service, are said to have paid a visit — and proceeded to disconnect and dismantle some of the security cameras and listening devices there."
The current challenge is to be realistic about Russian capacity in Ukraine without being fatalistic about Ukraine's prospects. This short 24-page paper by Estonia's defence ministry is a welcome effort at setting out a potential strategy. Some highlights:
Western official on the Moskva incident: "I can't definitively tell you exactly what has happened. But I am not aware previously of a fire on board a capital warship, which would lead to the ammunition magazine exploding...The claim by Ukrainian forces is credible"
To every October 7th truther who has, for two weeks, denied the first-hand testimony that was already available and published, here is the head of Israel's national forensic medical centre. "Many bodies, including those of babies, are without heads."
'Poland is considering a request from Ukraine to donate its German-made Leopard main battle tanks, a senior Polish diplomat said. “They are for real considering giving anything just to help Ukraine,” said a Czech official closely involved...'
HIMARS works. “Since a recent HIMARS strike on an enemy ammunition depot in Izyum, located southeast of…Kharkiv, Russian shelling has been “10 times less” than before, said Bohdan Dmytruk, a battalion commander in Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade.”
“Brest is a rainy industrial port…that is home to the French navy and its submarine nuclear deterrent. It has also witnessed a remarkable number of weddings in recent years between female Chinese students and the seamen who work at its naval bases”
Big news. “The Biden admin will work with allies to transfer Soviet-made tanks to bolster Ukrainian defenses in the country’s eastern Donbas region, a U.S. official said on Friday…It marks the first time in the war that the US has helped transfer tanks.”
My piece on changing Russian war aims. "Grabbing chunks of Ukraine (or Georgia before that, and Moldova before that) and using them as leverage could be done at a tolerable economic and military price to Russia in 2014. Doing so now is a different matter"
@CGMeifangZhang
I did not have “Chinese diplomat roots for Imperial Japan” on my bingo list for this year, but good for you for being so open-minded I guess.
What an absolute moral cesspit the Republican Party has got itself into with Ukraine. Treating the survival of a country as a political weapon and bargaining chip. For shame.
News: Senate Republicans discussed idea today of conditioning aid for Ukraine on U.S. hitting certain border security metrics after supplemental/immigration policy bill passes. Conservatives pushing for it but negotiators have rejected it, arguing it would cost the bill R votes
There is something wild about the fact that Russia has mobilised 300,000 men since Sep, conducted 700+ air & drone strikes since Oct & hurled itself at Donbas since Jan, with as many as 20,000 killed in action ... and actually managed a net *loss* of territory in April (👇).
Nine years of war, with every advantage, Russia controls 15% of Ukraine. They still don't have air superiority. They can't stop any trains/convoys coming into Ukraine. I see no reason for any Russian optimism. Crimea is the decisive terrain. Liberate it and this War will be over.
“A [Ukrainian] military-intelligence officer says that forward units are now within sniper range (a kilometre or so) of Kherson’s outer suburbs. “The next week or two will be even more interesting,” he promises.”
Good BBC investigation into mercenary recruitment. “The serving mercenary said many veterans of the…Wagner organisation were contacted on a private Telegram group a few weeks before the start of the war. They were invited to a "picnic in Ukraine".”
If you start a war, you don’t get to choose how it ends: “After initially planning for supporting an insurgency, Western govts now see realistic prospect of Ukrainian success tht pushes Russia farther out of [Ukraine] & deters Moscow from future landgrabs”
"Fifty-five Chinese sailors are feared dead after their nuclear submarine apparently got caught in a trap intended to ensnare British sub-surface vessels in the Yellow Sea...According to a secret UK report the seamen died following a catastrophic failure of the oxygen systems"
Good piece by
@mattsteinglass
. "The scale of Soviet & Chinese supplies of heavy weaponry to the North Vietnamese dwarfs anything imaginable in Ukraine...Soviet trainers often pressed the buttons on anti-aircraft missile[s] that shot down American fighters"
What’s brewing could be worst mass leak since Snowden 10 years ago. “leaked docs appear to go well beyond highly classified material on Ukraine… increasing trove also includes sensitive briefing slides on China, Indo-Pacific, the Middle East & terrorism.”
Pure, pointless revenge. It won’t make Ukraine give up, and it won’t make its backers give up. All it does it strengthen the case for additional air and missile defence.
“Ukraine received a fresh shipment of Turkish-made Bakar Bayraktar TB2 armed drones earlier this week according to a Facebook post from Ukraine’s defense minister. “New [drones] have already arrived in Ukraine and are on combat duty” said Oleksiy Reznikov”
RUSI has a new report out today on lessons from the first phase of the Ukraine war The authors include a Ukrainian lieutenant-general &
@Jack_Watling
. The paper is full of rich data & implications for other armed forces. I wrote up some highlights here:
On HIMARS. “We needed to persuade them…,” said Mr. Reznikov. “In the Izyum case, we were precise [in targeting] a Russian command center for aerial operations. It was really precise. Our partners saw it and said, ‘You passed the test.’”
Head-spinning sentence. "Until the eve of the invasion, Russia was committed to implementing the Minsk II agreement, which would have kept the Donbas as part of Ukraine" Russia was planning the invasion for five months prior. So no, it was not "committed".
UK Chief of Defence Intelligence: “Russian operations have changed. Russia is now pursuing a Strategy of Attrition. This will involve the reckless and indiscriminate use of firepower. This will result in increased civilian casualties [&] destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure"
“systematic erosion of Russian artillery has been a turning point: for the first time in the war, Ukrainian howitzers can deliver sustained fire … It also means that Moscow…has less artillery power to kill the infantry that emerge from” minefields
Did Scholz ask Zelensky if he wants this? Serious question, because a ceasefire without Russian withdrawal looks like it would, at this time, favour Russia and I have a hard time believing it's what Ukraine wants.
Three points from my long phone call with
#Putin
today:
There must be a ceasefire in
#Ukraine
as quickly as possible.
The claim that Nazis are in power there is false.
And I also reminded him about Russia’s responsibility for the global food situation.
Unusual to see a call for ethnic cleansing in a mainstream magazine. Yet here it is in the Spectator. "Maybe they will finally put an end to this insoluble nightmare, raze Hamas to the ground, or clear all the Palestinians from that benighted strip."
Jaw-dropping, even by the debased standards of Russia’s foreign ministry. Every post-colonial state should take note of the ideas that Russia is propounding here.
💬 President Vladimir Putin: There is no in-between, no intermediate state: either a country is
#sovereign
, or it is a
#colony
, no matter what the colonies are called. And a colony has no historical prospects.
If a country is not able to make sovereign decisions - it's a colony.
One of the Kremlin’s negotiating demands. “Russia…wants Ukraine to reduce its army to 50,000, a fifth of its current size. After a month of bloody sacrifice, few in Ukraine are anywhere near ready to agree to such a cut”
Another incredibly detailed report by
@Jack_Watling
and Nick Reynolds drawing on extensive interviews with Western and Ukrainian officials. Zaluzhnyi advisor: "anti-tank missiles slowed the Russians down, but what killed them was our artillery." Intel=key.
‘The head of French military intelligence, Gen Eric Vidaud, is losing his job after failing to predict Russia's war…Seven months after he took on the role, one report said he was blamed for "inadequate briefings" and a "lack of mastery of subjects".’
Superb long read from the NYT. ‘“This isn’t war,” Mikhail said, struggling to speak through heavy, liquid breaths. “It’s the destruction of the Russian people by their own commanders.”’
Robert Gates on visiting Russia as CIA director: "One of my most vivid memories, they have this wonderful guest house at KGB headquarters where they have their dinners...We sit down and I ate the worst piece of beef I’ve ever had in my entire life"
US microchips “were found inside a recovered example of the 9S932-1, a radar-equipped air defense command post vehicle … a Pantsir air defense system, a Ka-52 “Alligator” attack helicopter, and a Kh-101 (AS-23A Kodiak) cruise missile.”
UK government: “UK defence and security officials believe a window has opened up where Russia is on the backfoot due to resupply issues and plummeting morale. The Prime Minister is therefore encouraging allies to deploy their planned support for 2023 as soon as possible”
Bizarre to see people draw sweeping conclusion from a few images. They suggest poor tactics. But could also indicate bad luck. One US armour officer said to me: if his battalion had to breach complex obstacles, mines, he’d expect 25%-plus casualties—“if everything went right”.
Some people are drawing some very big conclusions from a few videos and photos of less than one company group of damaged / destroyed AFVs… as predicted. Ukraine should just throw in the towel now right.
Extremely enjoyable morning spent over the Baltic sea in a Swedish Gripen D fighter jet. Skimmed the sea, went supersonic and got to take the controls for rolls & loops. Most importantly, resisted the urge to lean forward and flick the "peace/war" toggle to find out what happens.