Time for
#NATO
to step up in Northern Europe w 🇸🇪 and 🇫🇮 as allies. We suggest 3 pillars:
✅ a deterrence-by-denial bubble over the whole NE
✅ stronger resilience across borders
✅ intensified regional agenda setting
Check it out🔽
#f
öpol
#turpo
#fofrk
Within a month
#Finland
will apply for
#NATO
membership. The Finns have consulted and secured support from allies, assessed threats and made a plan. In
#Sweden
, the process is slower, less structured and introvert. No consultations w allies. 1/2
US ambassador to Estonia resigns: ”For the president to say the EU was 'set up to take advantage of the United States, to attack our piggy bank', or that 'Nato is as bad as Nafta is not only factually wrong, but proves to me that it's time to go."
Finland 🇫🇮 knows Russia very well. In his last New Year’s speech, President
@niinisto
warns that Russia is regaining some of her self-esteem. He calls for
#Europe
to wake up:
"We do not need investments in military production solely to provide necessary assistance. It is needed
These are serious times.
The Royal court 🇸🇪 has announced that Crown Princess Victoria this autumn will begin special officer training to gain deeper understanding of tactics, war science and military strategy at Swedish Defence University and within the Swedish Armed Forces
Our report made the headlines in
#Finland
's largest newspaper:
"Report: northern Europe must have such a strong armed force that Russia will not dare to attack - Finland has a key role to play"
#f
öpol
#s
äkpol
#NATO
#turpo
@AtlanticCouncil
Last week we kicked off the 5th
#Baltic
Sea Security Conference in
#Stockholm
, gathering representatives from 15 countries (
#Nordics
,
#Baltics
, PL,
#UK
, Fr, Ge, NL,
#US
, Ca). Here are my key take aways from the discussions, marked by a sense of urgency and severity.
A thread🧵:
My dear American friends, what can be done to counter this kind of disinformation towards the American public? The US has pushed for European integration for 70 yrs because it has been in its interest to have a stable and prosperous Europe
Erdogan´s move to only ratify
#Finland
goes against the wish of those 28 allies who have already ratified both Sweden and Finland – together, as it was intended. Turkey creates a wedge in
#NATO
that mainly serves the interest of Russia. A thread👇
Europe has to let go of the idea of Russia included in an all-European security architecture. The focus must be to make
#EU
and
#NATO
as strong and resilient as possible, and from that position, deal w Russia, I argued in a panel on World Order at
@delphi_forum
#DelphiForum
These kind of threats do not go down well in
#Finland
and
#Sweden
. It is up to us to decide our security arrangements, not Russia. Joining
#NATO
is a most likely option given Russia's war in
#Ukraine
.
#f
öpol
#Turpo
#s
äkpol
Few countries know Russia as well as
#Finland
. Finns 🇫🇮 might not talk that much but it is wise to pay close attention to what they do!
#turpo
#s
äkpol
Finland has quietly filled its wartime stockpiles and is activating some of the so-called “production reservation agreements” which means that companies produce at the armed forces’ request what is needed for logistics - basically wartime economy light
While all eyes are on a burnt Quran, hanging dolls and escalating chaos between
#Sweden
and
#Turkey
, President Erdogan’s focus has actually moved elsewhere, though many seem to have missed it. The
#US
has entered the game. And Erdogan needs those F-16's.
#turpo
A thread👇:
✅
#Ukraine
must rapidly be given military support to win -not only endure - against Russia. Air power is vital, as well as long range missiles and continued supply of ammunition. 3/10
✅The West must be prepared to fight a war with Russia, in order to avoid it. That is not the case today, but it would be the most efficient deterrence. Russia understands the language of strength.2/10
As we enter 2024, we must ask ourselves; what more can the West do to make
#Ukraine
win the war against Russia? In this open letter to
@POTUS
we, more than 200 experts, politicians, military officers and intellectuals propose the follwing: (thread)
This is wise policy from 🇸🇪 FM
@TobiasBillstrom
who now plans to visit a range of
#NATO
ally capitals ahead of
#Vilnius
summit to keep up the pressure on 🇸🇪 accession. 28 of 30 (soon 29 of 31) already view Sweden as a trustworthy ally.
Proud to join this eminent group, calling for more military support to Ukraine now!🇺🇦
Europe has the economic resources to confront Russia.
The most urgent measure is for the EU 🇪🇺 to coordinate a vast industrial mobilisation to supply more arms and ammunitions to
#Ukraine
.
Next: 🇸🇪 Sweden!
It will require more vocal support from the 28 allies who have already ratified Sweden and view Sweden as a security provider and trustworthy ally.
#Sweden
has fulfilled its obligations in the trilateral MOU and should be in
#NATO
alongside
#Finland
.
I welcome the vote of the Grand National Assembly of
#T
ürkiye to complete the ratification of
#Finland
’s accession. This will make the whole
#NATO
family stronger & safer.
✅The West must urgently increase procurement and production military equipment, such as ammunition and missiles. Wartime production rate is needed.5/10
✅For more than a decade, Russia has conducted hybrid warfare towards the West, and it continues through sabotage on subwater infrastructure, disinformation and propaganda, orchestrated migration, cyberattacks, electronic jamming, etc. The
#EU
is key to address most of these
I have argued for this the past month and now it is happening:
@SwedishPM
is meeting
@POTUS
on Wednesday to discuss 🇸🇪 and
#NATO
ahead of
#Vilnius
summit. Excellent! Sweden is ready to be a full member immediately.
#WeAreNATO
Sweden will create a new public authority responsible for countering disinformation and increase resilience among the public, says PM Löfven
#fofrk
#s
äkpol
#svfm
#EU
#NATO
#baltics
Today
#Finland
is signing a DCA with
#US
, providing American access to 15 military bases, several of them are storage facilities. Earlier in Dec
#Sweden
signed a DCA giving access to 17 bases. Northern Europe will be collectively defended if needed.
#WeAreNATO
#turpo
#f
öpol
Swedish polls up as well with 41% in favor. Clealy Russia threatening
#Sweden
and
#Finland
from joining
#NATO
works in the opposite direction. This might be the moment when Finland evokes its NATO option.
BREAKING:
Historic polls as for the first time, the majority of Finns are in favor of
#NATO
membership. 53 in favor, 28 against and 19 uncertain.
#Ukraine
All eyes on Gotland👀 as
#Sweden
runs its largest exercise since 1989
#Aurora2023
. 14 countries are joining. Gotland is crucial for the defense of the Baltics and Sweden a security provider to
#NATO
. My take w
@eadamson91
@AtlanticCouncil
✅Mass and scale still matters, alongside innovation and new technologies. Therefore, the West must also address recruitment (considering reintroduction of conscription) as well as how and what we train and exercise.6/10
Vice president
@VP
Harris labels Russia's warfare in
#Ukraine
"barbaric and inhumane" and no doubt, these are crimes against humanity. Those responsible will be held to account.
#MSC2023
#StandWithUkraine
One word that sums up the feelings in
#Stockholm
tonight: FINALLY! The Turkish parliament has, at last, voted yes to Sweden’s accession protocol to
#NATO
. What was supposed to be a “fast-track” process hand-in-hand with
#Finland
, after quick ratifications by 28 allies, turned
#Germany
takes a big responsibility for the outcome of the war by trying to fine-tune escalation risks in contrast to the assessment of many allies and partners.
#Scholzing
is a dangerous path for Western unity.
#StandWithUkraine
#Ukraine
Ignoring warnings from all 🇩🇪 ministries & intel agencies,
@Bundeskanzler
Scholz wants to sell part of the Port of Hamburg to a *Chinese state-owned company* 🚨
Every possible means of domestic legal & intl political pressure must be used to stop this NOW
Sweden🇸🇪 Ally
#32
= True❗️
Sweden joins
#NATO
after challenging journey. What was set to be a fast process hand in hand with Finland 🇫🇮turned out to be a bumpy ride with several delays. Here is my recap of the winding road to membership. A 🧵thread:
#StrongerTogether
#WeAreNATO
Evidence of what many have suspected, ie Russian interference to slow Swedish Nato accession down by causing increased friction not only between Turkey and Sweden, Finland but other allies such as France as well. In other words, Russia is using Western freedom of expression as
Leaked documents show that Russian intelligence tried to stop Swedish & Finnish NATO accession by orchestrating anti-Erdoğan demonstrations and graffiti in Europe, Finnish TV reports.+
This is how close Sweden and Finland are 🇸🇪🇫🇮! The Finnish postal service celebrates Swedish
#NATO
membership with a new stamp. Kitos! 💙🤍💛
#turpo
#s
äkpol
#WeAreNATO
"Europe’s NATO allies need to move full speed ahead to resource their militaries. As long as the Russian imperial state exists in its current form, the threat it poses to Europe won’t go away."
A must read by my colleague
@andrewmichta
@AtlanticCouncil
Sanctioned Russian cargo ships made more than 100 stops at Turkish Ports
@WSJ
reveals. Turkey is the only
#NATO
ally that does not sanction Russia - and with Hungary, blocks Sweden's accession to
#NATO
.
@andrewmichta
@AmbDanFried
4/4 In Congress, leading lawmakers have stated they will block the deal. However, there is also strong support for Sweden and Finland joining
#NATO
. As the F-16’s and enlargement become interlinked, Congress gets a crucial role in bringing Sweden and Finland into the Alliance.
Encourage‼️ Trump knows no president "of a big country" would phrase the question this way 👇 because in NATO you spend on national defense, you don't "pay". So what's new and very worrisome is that Trump clearly states that he would encourage (!) Russia to do "whatever the hell
Trump: One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, Well, sir, if we don't pay and were attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said.. No I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.
Please take a moment to read this statement. It is historic and marks the end of an era, caused by the brutalism of Russia. Now, Finland and Sweden become allies in
#NATO
.
Finally! Diplomacy first, deterrence later has been unsuccessful in helping
#Ukraine
. Deterrence should have backed diplomacy from the start.
#US
plans more troops to Eastern flank.
#f
öpol
#s
äkpol
En route to Helsinki. 🇫🇮 joining
#NATO
is a solid manifestation of every country's right to choose its security arrangements regardless of size. Looking forward to discussion at
@FIIA_fi
on increased deterrence in Northern Europe. 🇫🇮 and 🇸🇪 continue to stay as close as possible.
"I have not heard from my husband for more than a year" says
#Belarus
opposition leader
@Tsihanouskaya
. "I feel that the dictators are now testing our limits. To restore justice, we have to reveal the truth. That is what my husband and
@navalny
were doing."
#MSC2024
@GLOBSEC
Apparently Russia is not deterred by Allied measures so far. Pls note that also Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Sweden🇸🇪 were targeted. This is in addition to the earlier
#NATO
statement on malign hybrid warfare. And the GPS jamming in the
#Balticsea
. And developments in
Happened Feb 2023: EmmanuelMacron and
@OlafScholz
pushing
@ZelenskyyUa
to consider peace talks with Russia and become more of a "statesman" (!). Zelensky answering that there is no one in R to talk to about peace.
@laurnorman
5/5 But also the
#UK
,
#Germany
and
#Spain
have close relationships with Turkey and could be more active than they have been so far. In the end, Erdogan knows that having both Sweden and Finland inside of NATO benefits the security of all allies.
4/5 Therefore, it is important that from now to the Vilnius summit in mid-July, those allies who have ratified Sweden´s accession put pressure on Turkey to do the same. The
#US
is of course vital and the
#F16
deal could be an central component.
2/4 far, the
#US
as the leader of
#NATO
had kept distance to the process, but on Jan 13, that changed.
@POTUS
then notified Congress that the administration wanted to sell F-16’s to Turkey if Turkey ratified Sweden’s and Finland’s accession.
✅Without a shift to a war economy on the part of all Western countries, and the increase in arms procurement that this implies, Moscow’s strategy of buying time and banking on the fatigue of governments and public opinion is likely to pay off.
‼️We cannot allow that to happen.
Today: Sweden is re-opening the regiment in Sollefteå in Northwestern
#Sweden
. As decided by Parliament to strengthen national defence in years 2021-2025.
#f
öpol
3/4 Since then, US and Turkish officials have discussed the deal on several occasions.Turkey has also visited the
#UK
to discuss the Eurofighter, probably to increase leverage toward the Americans. The F-16’s are most likely Turkey’s first choice.
Last time Putin officially warned
#Sweden
and
#Finland
from joining
#NATO
was in 2017. This time it is in light of up-coming talks with
#US
on a new European security order. Smaller states must safeguard the
#OSCE
principle of equality of all sovereign states.
#f
öpol
#svpol
✅Lift the restrictions on the use of weapons supplied by the
#US
, and call on the coalition member countries to do likewise, so that the Ukrainian army can neutralise military structures and equipment, ammunition and fuel depots, and military production facilities deep inside
1/4 From the Madrid summit onwards, Sweden,
#Finland
and Turkey worked to fulfil the trilateral agreement that paved the way for the invitation. After Christmas, both 🇸🇪🇫🇮 hinted that on their part, there was not really much more to do.
@swedishPM
and I just announced that Sweden is joining the Leopard 2 tank coalition. Sweden will give up to 10 Leopard 2 A5 main battle tanks to Ukraine. This, with the 50 CV90 infantry fighting vehicles on the way, will significantly strengthen the armed forces of Ukraine. (1/7)
Our new report argues that a "deterrence-by-denial" bubble should be created in northern
#Europe
. Local armed forces in the region would be so strong that Russia would not dare to attack them or could not be confident that it would win if it did. Thread👇
1/5 Russia benefits from a fragmented and unfulfilled security architecture in Europe. Hungary, also with close ties to Russia, will follow suite and only ratify Finland.
Civil society in
#Ukraine
plays an important role in documenting war crimes and for the possibility of having national elections in 2024. Crucial to do even better in European support as the war continues to exhaust the Ukrainian society, says
@D_Schwarzer
@Europeanconf