The Base Rate Times @base_rate_times Twitter profile

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

@Kyukimasa 見出しは誤解を招きます。それはシミュレーションではなくシナリオでした。

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Important context about this story from @harris_edouard (hat tip @andrewb10687674 ) It was a constructed scenario (i.e. prepared story), not a rules-based simulation: The headline is misleading

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

🚨 Spike in prediction markets for LK-99 room-temperature superconductors! Replicated by 2024? ◦ @Polymarket : 51%, up from 24% ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 48%, up from 25% ◦ @InsightForecast : 24%, up from 19% (low volume) ◦ @futuurHQ : 26%, down from 36% (low volume) Retracted by…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

Will @mattyglesias be the first mainstream journalist to eventually become a superforecaster? I have immense respect for this. He has practiced and improved every year Imagine a world in which every commentator posted a years-long track record

Luke Muehlhauser

@lukeprog

4 months

Kudos again to @mattyglesias for making and scoring his predictions. Practice breeds improvement!

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

"If you're not embarrassed by the first version of your product, you've launched too late" With that said, I've made a news site built on prediction markets URL: If that URL doesn't work, please try: (yes, embarrassing!)

The Base Rate Times

News through prediction markets

baseratetimes.webflow.io

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Complete summary: prediction markets on room temperature superconductor... Replicated by 2024? ◦ @Metaculus : 17%, down from 33% yesterday ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 21%, down from 32% ◦ @Polymarket (at least 2 times): 23%, down from 24% Retracted by 2024? ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 44%,…

John Arnold

@JohnArnoldFndtn

10 months

If you want a quick summary of the status of room temp superconducting, you can read 100s of tweets & dozens of blog posts, or just look at the betting market, which at the time of this writing is giving the paper a 17% chance of replication. h/t @TheZvi

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Prediction markets on 🇷🇺Wagner / Prigozhin mutiny, latest update: ◦ Putin still more likely than not to stay in power, but his odds are declining: ~65-80%, down from >90% ◦ Regime change still unlikely but odds increasing: ~27-30%, up from ~3-6% ◦ 'Large-scale' conflict…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

What if instead of infotainment, news coverage was like the weather forecast? A dashboard of probabilities... Introducing v1 of the Trump dashboard, just in time for the Iowa caucus (v2 will have pretty charts)

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

📉 Prediction markets decline for LK-99 room-temperature superconductor... Replicated by 2024? ◦ @Polymarket : 33%, down from 61% ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 37%, down from 59% ◦ @metaculus : 20%, new market ◦ @InsightForecast : 36%, down from 47% ◦ @futuurHQ : 48%, up from 28%…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

Here's every superforecaster I've found on X These individuals have some of the best track records in the world Top forecasters on @Metaculus : @SmoLurks (ranked #1 in 2021) @Jotto999 ( #11 in 2019) @ryanbeck111 ( #12 in 2021) @SchoeneggerPhil ( #15 in 2023) @lxrjl ( #15 in 2021)…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

9 months

🚨 LK-99 superconductor: Real money prediction markets fall to 13%... Replicated by 2024? ◦ @Polymarket : 13%, down from 28% ◦ @Kalshi : 13%, down from 33% ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 17%, down from 35% ◦ @metaculus : 5%, down from 31% ◦ @InsightForecast : 13%, down from 28% ◦…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

DeepMind releases AlphaGeometry, explicitly stating it can solve Olympiad-level geometry problems What do prediction markets think? ◦ Timeline to Gold at International Math Olympiad accelerates by 13 months, now Oct 2027 ( @metaculus ) ◦ Timeline to AGI accelerates by 2…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Prediction markets on Wagner Group / Prigozhin situation... Coup or regime change in 🇷🇺 by 2024: ⬆️5%, up +2 points from 3% on @metaculus Civil war/'large-scale armed conflict' in 🇷🇺 by 2030: ⬆️55%, up +25 points‼️ on @metaculus Putin stays in power... ◦ by Jul:⬇️95%, down…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

Superforecasters made predictions about 8 major events in 2024 for The Economist Here is how they compare to the latest prediction market odds... ◦ Supers 9-17 points more bullish on Democrats in US presidential election ◦ Markets slightly more optimistic about…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

Prediction markets on NYT vs OpenAI copyright lawsuit: ◦ ~20% chance NYT wins ( @Kalshi & @ManifoldMarkets ) ◦ 32% for OpenAI settlement by 2025 ( @Polymarket ) ◦ 13% likely NYT drops case by April 2024 ( @Polymarket ) ⚠️These are early odds (low liquidity still)

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

What did the NATO Summit in Vilnius achieve? According to prediction markets... 🇺🇦 Ukraine membership? ◦ Ukraine in NATO by 2024: 1%, no change ( @metaculus ) ◦ Ukraine in EU by 2024: 1%, no change ( @metaculus ) ◦ Ukraine in NATO by 2025: 20%, up from 16% ( @ManifoldMarkets )…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Prediction markets settling on a picture of 🇷🇺Wagner Group / Prigozhin situation: ◦ Likely to be 'large scale' conflict (~65%), but not regime change (~10%) ◦ Putin likely to stay in Power (~85-90%); uncertainty for Prigozhin (~50%) Latest odds: Civil war/'large-scale armed…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

7 months

Prediction markets on Israel-Hamas... Israel major offensive into Gaza by Nov? ◦ @Polymarket : 97%, up from 65% ◦ @metaculus : 81%, up from 50% Hamas controls Gaza? ◦ by Nov @Polymarket : 98%, up from 96% ◦ by Dec @InsightForecast : 50%, up from 40% ◦ by 2024 @metaculus : 75%…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Latest & most complete summary: Prediction markets on room-temperature superconductors... Replicated* by 2024? ◦ @Polymarket : 24%, down from 26% yesterday, but up from 20% day prior ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 25%, up from 21% yesterday, & 17% day prior ◦ @Metaculus (1st attempt…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

9 months

🚨 LK-99 superconductor prediction markets: Polymarket down to 8%, Metaculus down to 2%... Replicated by 2024? ◦ @Polymarket : 8%, down from 13% ◦ @Kalshi : 12%, down from 13% ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 12%, down from 17% ◦ @metaculus : 2%, down from 5% ◦ @InsightForecast : 6%, down…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

🚨 Putin accuses Prigozhin of treason 🚨 Wagner Group calls for Putin to be deposed ◦ Increased odds of both 'large scale' conflict (now 76%, up from 65%) ◦ and regime change (now 16%, up from 10%) ◦ Decreased odds of Putin staying in power (now 69-89%, down from ~85-90%)…

Centre for Information Resilience

@Cen4infoRes

11 months

8. BREAKING: Wagner's Telegram channel calls for Putin to be deposed. Further criticises Putin's war strategy.

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

6 months

Will Sam Altman come back as CEO of Open AI? According to prediction markets: ◦ @Polymarket : 80% likely, up from 55% earlier today ◦ @Kalshi : 87%, up from 59% ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 73%, up from 50% ◦ @metaculus (by 2026): 64%, up from 50%

Emily Chang

@emilychangtv

6 months

Another update: - talks between Sam and the board center on him coming back *as CEO* —not in any other role. - Emmett Shear is now part of these negotiations, along with Adam D’Angelo

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

LATEST: Prediction markets on Wagner Group / Prigozhin situation... Prigozhin leaves Wagner or flees by Jul 9: ◦ ⬆️49%, up +42 points‼️ on @GJ_Open Coup or regime change in 🇷🇺 by 2024: ◦ ⬆️8%, now up +5 points on @metaculus ◦ ⬆️77%, now up +60 points‼️ on @ManifoldMarkets …

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Important context about this story from @harris_edouard (hat tip @andrewb10687674 ) It was a constructed scenario (i.e. prepared story), not a rules-based simulation: The headline is misleading

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Currently tracking 57 AI prediction markets... but none align well with this scenario? Suggestions for a better suited prediction market? (Ideally >100 forecasters and more specific than 'will AI end humanity by <distant year>')

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

After 🇷🇺Prigozhin deal: predict markets start to regress, but still not back to pre-mutiny odds... ◦ Conflict risk still ~50/50 says @metaculus , but deal likely to hold (70%) says @swift_centre ◦ Prigozhin won't be arrested (5%) says @Polymarket , but still ~50/50 for survival…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Latest update: Prediction markets on room temperature superconductor... Replicated* by 2024? ◦ @Polymarket : 17%, down from 22% yesterday ◦ @Metaculus : 11%, down from 17% ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 16%, down from 21% Retracted by 2024? ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 75%, up from 43% yesterday…

Alex Kaplan

@alexkaplan0

10 months

A representative for Korea University just gave a crazy interview to Yonhap News Agency: 1. Kwon is no longer affiliated with Korea University. 2. Kwon resigned as CTO of Q-Centre four months ago 3. Kwon published to the archive without the permission of any other authors

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

@paulg Hi, I do 'news through prediction markets' Regular updates on what every prediction market is saying about room-temperature superconductors Sorry for the shameless plug, thought you might genuinely find it useful

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Latest & most complete summary: Prediction markets on room-temperature superconductors... Replicated* by 2024? ◦ @Polymarket : 24%, down from 26% yesterday, but up from 20% day prior ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 25%, up from 21% yesterday, & 17% day prior ◦ @Metaculus (1st attempt…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

"If this is true it's the most important event in the history of the world" No change in prediction markets (yet?): ◦ 🛸Alien tech in solar system by 2030: 1% ◦ 📡Reply from Luyten's Star by 2046: 1% ◦ 👽Extraterrestrials discovered in solar system by 2050: 20% ◦ 📡Alien…

Alex Tabarrok 🛡️

@ATabarrok

11 months

If this is true it's the most important event in the history of the world.

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

After just 30 mins, already shifts in Wagner Group / Prigozhin situation... Coup or regime change in 🇷🇺 by 2024: ◦ ⬆️7%, now up +4 points on @metaculus ◦ ⬆️40%, up +23 points‼️ on @ManifoldMarkets (Note: Ambiguous resolution criteria) Civil war/'large-scale armed conflict' in…

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Prediction markets on Wagner Group / Prigozhin situation... Coup or regime change in 🇷🇺 by 2024: ⬆️5%, up +2 points from 3% on @metaculus Civil war/'large-scale armed conflict' in 🇷🇺 by 2030: ⬆️55%, up +25 points‼️ on @metaculus Putin stays in power... ◦ by Jul:⬇️95%, down…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

9 months

Agenda includes: - fireside chat with @robinhanson - Fermi 'estimathon' - prediction market murder mystery game Special guests: @Aella_Girl , @TheOmniLiberal , @patio11 , @ByrneHobart , @catehall , @robertskmiles , @shayne_coplan , @RationalAnimat1 , the CEO of @Research_FRI & more...

Stefan Schubert

@StefanFSchubert

9 months

Forecasting Festival hosted by @ManifoldMarkets , September 22-24 in Berkeley, California

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

5 months

Trump is back on Colorado ballot pending appeal, removed from Maine ballot by top election official Prediction markets show Trump: ~90% chance appear on CO ballot ~15-25% chance blocked from ANY state primary Trump ~75-85% likely to become GOP nominee ~40% chance Trump elected…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

ElectionBettingOdds now has Trump at >50% chance of becoming president in 2024 for the first time... However, I think it's worth disaggregating those odds: The biggest market is at 54%, driving up the aggregated number ( @Polymarket ) But all the other markets are all still at…

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

This week's Trump dashboard... Presidency: ◦ Real money odds diverge on Trump: now 54% on @Polymarket , still 46% on @PredictIt Primaries: ◦ Trump ~96% likely to win New Hampshire, up from ~70% last week (after @VivekGRamaswamy & @GovRonDeSantis drop out) Other: ◦…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

This week's Trump dashboard... Presidency: ◦ Real money odds diverge on Trump: now 54% on @Polymarket , still 46% on @PredictIt Primaries: ◦ Trump ~96% likely to win New Hampshire, up from ~70% last week (after @VivekGRamaswamy & @GovRonDeSantis drop out) Other: ◦…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Latest on 🇷🇺Russia-🇺🇦Ukraine... ☢️ Nuclear risk ◦ Radiation incident at Ukrainian plant: 15% risk, up from 10% on @metaculus ◦ But 2% risk of Zaporizhzhia plant explosion on @Polymarket ◦ 7% risk of Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine, up from 5% on @GJ_Open ◦ But 'only'…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Good news: First time @metaculus 'highlighted so centrally' by The Economist! I hereby challenge @TheEconomist to make me redundant by prominently referencing prediction markets in every article (and by not titling the charts 'astrology')

Gaia Dempsey

@fianxu

1 year

This is the first time that a @Metaculus forecast has been highlighted so centrally in an Economist piece.

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

9 months

🤼 Elon Musk tweets he's driving to Zuck's house to fight him... Prediction markets: Musk and Zuck fight in 2023? ◦ @Polymarket : 21%, up from 12% ◦ @metaculus : 5%, down from 10% ◦ @GJ_Open (by Feb 2024): 16%, down slightly from 17% ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 21%, up from 14% ◦…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

3 months

Forecasting platform @INFERpub is now being run by @RANDCorporation , taking over from @umdARLIS @INFERpub is an excellent source of predictions on AI, Iran & Taiwan, among others (It will continue to use @cultivatelabs tech)

INFER Public

@INFERpub

3 months

We are pleased to share that #INFER is now led by @RANDCorporation . We look forward to this new chapter that will enable INFER to leverage #RAND expertise in our mission to advance the #forecasting capability of the US govt. See our announcement>>

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Underreported aspect of the 🇷🇺Wagner Group / Prigozhin situation: ☢️ Nuclear weapons depot in Voronezh, halfway between occupied Rostov and Moscow No change in prediction markets on nukes (yet?): Nuke used in combat/'non-test' detonation anywhere by 2024: ◦ 4%…

simon saradzhyan

@saradzhyan

11 months

According to a 2017 UNDIR paper one of Russia's facilities for storage of nuclear weapons is located in the Voronezh region which neighbors Rostov region, where Prigozhin claims to have established control over air base and district HQ.

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

5 months

Poll of FT readers (~8.5k respondents) beat @superforecaster in predicting GDP growth Both underestimated bitcoin (admittedly volatile) Overall @superforecaster beat FT readers 8-1

Nathan 🔍

@NathanpmYoung

5 months

Nice @FT article on forecasting

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

Early betting odds seem to favour @BillAckman & @NeriOxman : ◦ Neri Oxman's MIT degree is only 1% likely to be revoked by Jan 31 ( @Polymarket ) ◦ MIT president Kornbluth 38% likely to be ousted in 2024, up from 23% following the Business Insider Oxman story ( @Kalshi ) ◦ 43%…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

How has 🇺🇦Ukraine's counteroffensive been impacted by 🇷🇺Wagner Group / Prigozhin? Crimea land bridge cut: ◦ by Oct: 33%, up from 24% ( @InsightForecast ) ◦ by 2024: 33%, up from 25% ( @metaculus ) Crimea retaken: ◦ by Aug: 9%, up from 6% ( @GJ_Open ) ◦ by 2024: 27%, up from 10%…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

@liz_love_lace @Polymarket @ManifoldMarkets @InsightForecast @futuurHQ thanks! quickly threw it together on powerpoint of all things 🤦‍♀️ (hat tip to @hosseeb for the idea)

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

5 months

Prediction markets on Harvard President: Claudine Gay 53% likely to be ousted by Apr 2024 ( @Polymarket ), 63% likely by end of next year ( @Kalshi ). However, President Gay unlikely (~3-15%) to leave this year ( @metaculus ). Full summary... Ousted next year: ◦ ⬆️53% by April 2024…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Latest on 🇷🇺Russia-🇺🇦Ukraine according to prediction markets... Putin: ~90% likely to stay in power, almost recovered to ~92% pre-Wagner level Prigozhin: 39% likely to be killed, up from 30% ( @ManifoldMarkets ). Civil conflict: 40% risk, still elevated from ~30% pre-Wagner level…

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Headlines:🚨Blasts on Crimea Bridge kill two, threaten Russian war supply lines Compelling images are trending. But what do prediction markets say...? Latest odds: Crimea Bridge impassable* for 7 days by 2024: 41%, up +2 points from 39% ( @metaculus ) Crimea Bridge destroyed by…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

AI-generated article summaries live: - 3-4 simple bullet points - Neutral language, no sensationalism - Prioritise 'Five Ws' I make AI take the Journalist's Oath: "clear statement, accuracy & fairness are fundamental to good journalism" Almost like a reporter of old (P.S. the…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

9 months

Any sympathetic followers have experience with @tylercowen 's Emergent Ventures? Was hoping for some feedback on my application Please DM or reply (or whatever is convenient for you) Thank you~

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

The people have spoken Coming soon: AI risk dashboard + AI timeline according to prediction markets 🫡

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

What topic should The Base Rate Times expand coverage to next?

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Thank you @metaforecast - my data now updates using their API It's a search engine for prediction markets. Great tool, first place I go when looking for forecasts

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

9 months

🇬🇹 Prediction markets: Guatemala presidential election Centrist Sandra Torres wins? ◦ @Polymarket : 29%, up from 22% ◦ @GJ_Open : 46%, down from 53% Center-left Bernardo Arévalo wins? ◦ @Polymarket : 72%, down from 79% ◦ @GJ_Open : 46%, up from 36%

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

We briefly interrupt our usual coverage for some vague verbiage: ◦ Rostov is >1000km away from Moscow ◦ But it's the "primary resupply line for virtually the entire Russian force in Ukraine" (according to @marcorubio ) ◦ Can't seize the capital? Target the supply chain

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

Taiwan's presidential election is this weekend... Incumbent DPP's Lai Ching-te is the favourite, according to both prediction markets & opinion polls. Markets disagree about TPP's Ko Wen-je. @Metaculus estimates only 1% chance of victory, contrasting with 21% odds on…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Latest on Russia-Ukraine: ◦ 📈🇷🇺Russia ~85% likely to gain territory, up from ~78% ◦ 📉🇺🇦Ukraine's odds of controlling DNR/LNR down -5 points to ~5-15% ◦ 📈🇺🇦Ukraine's odds of retaking Sevastopol jumps to 16% from 9%, says @Hypermind_com ◦ (But chance of retaking Crimea…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

5 months

Prediction markets on Red Sea shipping: ◦ Maersk announcing return now 54% likely, 📈spiking from 10%. Lowest ask is 93%, suggesting sellers expect even higher chance. ( @Polymarket ) ◦ US 21% likely to attack Yemen in 2023 ( @Polymarket ); 50% chance of US air or sea strike…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

🇫🇮 Finland's presidential election is tomorrow Opinion polls suggest a close race, with center-right Stubb only 2 points ahead of greens Haavisto However, prediction markets show Stubb is 88% likely to win Unlike most European countries, the Finnish president holds executive…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

New @metaculus sidebar featuring 'News Match', using an algorithm supported by @improvethenews Meanwhile @ManifoldMarkets have now integrated News into their Home feed

Metaculus

@metaculus

11 months

Our new sidebar helps you start forecasting faster and discover relevant news stories, conditional questions, public figure predictions, and more. Find it on desktop on any question page:

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

🚨US House passes debt ceiling deal 314-117... (Senate next) ~95% chance ceiling raised before June 5 deadline Default risk: - Jul 1, @metaculus : 1% - Jul 4, @Hypermind_com : 2% - Nov 1, @superforecaster : 2%, down from 4% - '24, @metaculus : 3% - '24, @Kalshi : 3%, down from 5%

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

5 months

Want to do @slatestarcodex -style annual predictions with minimal friction? Just click on a prompt & make your prediction

Sage

@sage_future_

5 months

A space to write down your predictions for your life in 2024 At the end of the year, return and reflect

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Update: Collapsible links added to site Still feels info dense, not 100% what @Jsevillamol wanted. But hopefully an improvement, will keep chipping away Let me know what you think Thank you Jaime, @g_leech_ & @pyrodiscus for the feedback (& those who liked their tweets, helps)

Jaime Sevilla

@Jsevillamol

1 year

@base_rate_times It's too information dense. As a casual reader, I care very little about the dozens of links below each graph, which I am unlikely to ever read. I just want the graphs, together with short explanations of them.

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

6 months

Exit polls suggest Geert Wilders’ PVV will be the largest party in the Dutch parliament According to prediction markets... ◦ PVV wins most seats: 88%, up from 42% yesterday & 31% day before ( @Polymarket $30k) ◦ PVV part of governing coalition: 72%, up from 39% yesterday &…

Bloomberg

@business

6 months

Far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders won the Dutch elections and said he plans to lead the country’s next government, in a shock result that will resound across Europe

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

US debt ceiling: Default risk more than doubles, now at 12% according to Superforecasters ~40% chance ceiling raised before June 1 deadline Coverage now live on site

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

I want to steal this for The Base Rate Times

Consistently Candid Alex

@FellowHominid

1 year

LessWrong enabling reacts inaugurating a Golden Age of intellectual inquiry

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Just put The Base Rate Times on Manifund If you have a cool project that involves saving the world, chuck it on Manifund~ (Click the small "include open call" button, otherwise you won't be able to see most projects)

Manifold

@ManifoldMarkets

10 months

New regranting program just dropped! Huge thanks to the regrantors who volunteered to help: @trishume @ARGleave @DanHendrycks @leopoldasch @EvanHub @QualyThe @RoboTeddy @GavrielKlw @isaakfreeman @marcusabramovi1 @TheZvi

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

5 months

NYT reports: 🇺🇦'Putin Quietly Signals He Is Open to a Cease-Fire in Ukraine' Prediction markets weigh in: ◦ Cease-fire odds up +17 points on @Polymarket : now 42% by Jun 2024, up from 25%; ◦ 6% in 2023, up from 3%. ◦ However, @metaculus stays at 1% for 2023.

The New York Times

@nytimes

5 months

President Vladimir Putin has been signaling through intermediaries that he is open to a cease-fire in Ukraine, officials familiar with the matter said.

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Good news: @Kalshi was featured by The New York Times last month! ('Good news' is my new segment, where I track mainstream coverage of prediction markets)

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Good news: First time @metaculus 'highlighted so centrally' by The Economist! I hereby challenge @TheEconomist to make me redundant by prominently referencing prediction markets in every article (and by not titling the charts 'astrology')

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

7 months

@Polymarket @metaculus @InsightForecast @ManifoldMarkets @GJ_Open Prediction markets: Israel-Hamas ceasefire? ◦ by Nov @Polymarket : 1%, down from 8% ◦ by Nov @ManifoldMarkets : 1%, down from 3% ◦ by Nov 7 @InsightForecast : 3% ◦ by Nov 29 @INFERpub : 5%, down from 7% ◦ by 2024 @Polymarket : 32% Deal for Israeli hostages? ◦ by Apr 2024…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

There is a News tab on @ManifoldMarkets now! This is what their Russia-Ukraine coverage looks like. Check it out

Manifold

@ManifoldMarkets

11 months

Check out our latest feature: News Topics Tabs! The Home feed has also undergone several iterations lately so have a peek at that too 😉

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Just reading now that apparently I was meant to build hype for weeks ahead of my Product Hunt launch? And schedule a bunch of notifications? Anyhow, in case any PH-ers would like to support the cause: Thx! (🚀Obligatory pic of rocket for PH launch🚀)

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

Epstein list: objection deadline for unsealing names has now passed Names 89% likely to be released by Jan 31 ( @Polymarket ) Note: the trending flight logs are from 2021; not linked to upcoming unsealing Trump 75% likely to be named, suggest early odds from @Polymarket

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Working on my application for the @rootsofprogress blogging intensive (you should apply too!) and stumbled upon this... Anyone have info on @slatestarcodex 's presentation on the Bronze Age collapse? Would love to learn more

Jason Crawford

@jasoncrawford

10 months

Announcing the @rootsofprogress Blog-Building Intensive, an 8-week program for aspiring progress writers to start or grow a blog. Learn about progress studies, get into a regular writing habit, improve your writing, and build your audience

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Top forecasting group @swift_centre on 🇷🇺Wagner Group / Prigozhin situation: Will 'coup' still be going in 2 weeks? ◦ 2 x Swift forecasters: 35-40% ◦ 1 x Swift forecaster: 68% ("access to a key logistical hub...") ◦ 1 x Swift forecaster: 75% ("Putin calls it an armed mutiny &…

Swift Centre

@swift_centre

11 months

🚨🇷🇺🚨 Latest on Russia situation: 50/50 whether crisis is resolved in the next two weeks, huge uncertainty, Russian MOD reffering to an 'armed revolt'. We'll forecast other risks soon, stay tuned

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

@metaculus Precise definitions: AGI ( @MatthewJBar for @metaculus ): We will thus define "an AI system" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans. Able to reliably pass a 2-hour, adversarial Turing test during which…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Small experiments: + 'Latest' section at the top, calling out the ~1-3 last big market moves + 'Last chance' section, for the info junkies. 'Deleted' links will hang out there for a little bit before vanishing... (Some stories only) Thoughts? Good or unnecessary complexity?

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

🚨 Unconfirmed reports 🇧🇾Lukashenko has fled Belarus... No change in prediction markets (yet?): ◦ Lukashenko stays in power by 2024: 82% on @InsightForecast ◦ Lukashenko leaves power: in Jun 2025, according to @metaculus (Hat tip @JgaltTweets , best follow for breaking news)

Jason Jay Smart

@officejjsmart

11 months

WHERE YOU GOING?! YOU SCARED?! The jet of the Belarus Dictator Lukashenko 🇧🇾 family took off from Belarus and is now in the sky over Turkey 🇹🇷. Upon entering Russian airspace, the aircraft turned off the transponders and turned them on only over Kalmykia, when exiting Russia…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

9 months

🇦🇷 Libertarian outsider Javier Milei wins Argentina’s presidential primary... Prediction markets (⚠️low liquidity): Milei wins presidential election? ◦ @Polymarket : 64%, up from 41% ◦ @GJ_Open : 38%, up from 7% ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 38% ◦ @smarkets : 33%, no change…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

5 months

🇮🇷 Iran triples output of near-weapons grade uranium, reversing mid-2023 slowdown As of now, Iran still 50/50 to acquire nuclear weapons by 2030 ( @metaculus ) & Weapons-grade uranium still 5% likely to be discovered in Iran by 2025 ( @INFERpub ) No change in prediction market odds

Semafor

@semafor

5 months

Iran tripled its output of near-weapons grade nuclear fuel over the past three months, the UN’s nuclear watchdog said.

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

US Air Force clarifies: "Despite this being a hypothetical example, this illustrates the real-world challenges posed by AI-powered capability..." says the original source, Col. Hamilton, Chief of AI Test & Operations (hat tip @manic_pixie_agi ):

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Important context about this story from @harris_edouard (hat tip @andrewb10687674 ) It was a constructed scenario (i.e. prepared story), not a rules-based simulation: The headline is misleading

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Latest on 🇷🇺Russia-🇺🇦Ukraine... Retaking Crimea: ◦ 📉5% chance of Ukraine retaking Crimea by Aug, down from 10% according to @GJ_Open ◦ But odds of retaking by 2024 unchanged at 10% on @metaculus Crimea land bridge: ◦ ~20-30% chance of Crimea land bridge being cut ◦…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

US debt ceiling Clash of the Titans: Superforecasters vs Metaculus!! Who will be proven right on US default risk?!? (Sorry, mocking news headlines) Default...? - by Nov 1, @superforecaster : 14% (No change) - by '24, @metaculus : 6% (-4 points from 10% peak) - by '24, @Kalshi : 9%…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

🇷🇺Russia announces 🇺🇦Ukraine taking advantage of Prigozhin situation in Bakhmut Ukraine's odds of retaking Bakhmut jumps to 24% from 14% on @ManifoldMarkets ⚠️Note: Low liquidity, only 37 total traders

OSINTdefender

@sentdefender

11 months

The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that Elements of the 35th and 36th Marine Brigades of the Ukrainian Naval Infantry are taking advantage of the “Disorganization caused by Prigozhin” and are currently attempting to Breakthrough the Frontline near Bakhmut; Ukrainian…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Threads🧵 vs Twitter🐦 according to prediction markets... 📈Threads more users than Twitter? ◦ by 2024: 24%, down from 49% peak ( @ManifoldMarkets ) ◦ by 2025: 31%, down from 46% peak ( @ManifoldMarkets ) 💸Twitter's financial future? ◦ Net income growth in 2023: 38%, down from…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Chance of raising debt ceiling before June 1 halves(!) from ~40% to ~20% Important context: new deadline is June 5 according to Yellen (hat tip @JgaltTweets )

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

@StefanFSchubert Good feedback, thank you

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

This year @metaculus is hosting @slatestarcodex 's annual forecasting tournament

Metaculus

@metaculus

4 months

In 2024: 🤖 Will OpenAI reveal more about Q*? 🇺🇸 Will Biden debate Trump? 🚀 Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? Forecast the events that will shape the year ahead in the ACX 2024 Prediction Contest! $2.5k in prizes. Learn more & start predicting:

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

US debt ceiling latest... Default risk: 6%, halves from 12% say Superforecasters Default by July: ~1% risk, down from ~3% Debt ceiling: ~6% chance raised before June 1, but >90% chance by July (Deadline June 5 says Yellen) Latest news: Hardline Republicans threaten deal...

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

🚨 US debt ceiling: Deal agreed 'in principle' ~15% chance raised before June 1, down from ~20% yesterday (New deadline June 5) But >90% chance raised before July (Two new markets added) Default risk down -2 points: - by Nov 1, @superforecaster : 12% (-2 points from yesterday)…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Lightspeed Grants will have an application co-working session tomorrow (Thursday) at noon-12pm PT I will be waking up early to join at ~1pm PT. If you want to steal my trade secrets (or improve humanity's future) then consider joining! Link:

Oliver Habryka

@ohabryka

11 months

If you are working on stuff that might substantially improve the future of humanity, consider applying to Lightspeed Grants, a new funding program I just launched: We are distributing $5M, applications close July 6th. Get a response in 14 days. 🧵 (1/n)

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

@TaskandPurpose The headline is misleading. There will likely be a correction issued It was a constructed scenario, not a 'real' simulation

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Important context about this story from @harris_edouard (hat tip @andrewb10687674 ) It was a constructed scenario (i.e. prepared story), not a rules-based simulation: The headline is misleading

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

🚨 US debt ceiling: Deal agreed 'in principle' ~15% chance raised before June 1, down from ~20% yesterday (New deadline June 5) But >90% chance raised before July (Two new markets added) Default risk down -2 points: - by Nov 1, @superforecaster : 12% (-2 points from yesterday)…

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

US debt ceiling Clash of the Titans: Superforecasters vs Metaculus!! Who will be proven right on US default risk?!? (Sorry, mocking news headlines) Default...? - by Nov 1, @superforecaster : 14% (No change) - by '24, @metaculus : 6% (-4 points from 10% peak) - by '24, @Kalshi : 9%…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Like Google but for prediction markets, forecast tournaments, etc. (Note: in this instance, I mean "like Google" as a compliment)

Nuño Sempere

@NunoSempere

11 months

This is your biannual reminder that , a search engine for forecasts, exists.

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

10 months

Headlines:🚨Blasts on Crimea Bridge kill two, threaten Russian war supply lines Compelling images are trending. But what do prediction markets say...? Latest odds: Crimea Bridge impassable* for 7 days by 2024: 41%, up +2 points from 39% ( @metaculus ) Crimea Bridge destroyed by…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Latest on 🇷🇺Russia-🇺🇦Ukraine: 🚨 Zelensky 'tacitly acknowledges' counteroffensive is underway... Counteroffensive: ◦ 🇺🇦📉 22% chance of Crimea land bridge being cut by Oct, down from 34% says @InsightForecast ◦ ❗ But @metaculus land bridge odds unchanged at 28% ◦ 🇺🇦 ~10%…

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Latest on Russia-Ukraine: ◦ 📈🇷🇺Russia ~85% likely to gain territory, up from ~78% ◦ 📉🇺🇦Ukraine's odds of controlling DNR/LNR down -5 points to ~5-15% ◦ 📈🇺🇦Ukraine's odds of retaking Sevastopol jumps to 16% from 9%, says @Hypermind_com ◦ (But chance of retaking Crimea…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

7 months

@Polymarket @metaculus @InsightForecast @ManifoldMarkets @GJ_Open Prediction markets: Israel-Hamas escalation risk, Iran special edition... ◦ Iran declares war on Israel by 2024 ( @Polymarket ): 7%, down from 8% ◦ Israel-Iran military conflict by 2024 ( @ManifoldMarkets ): 23%, up from 21% ◦ Israel deadly attack on Iran by 2024 ( @metaculus ):…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

🚨 Ukraine's prediction market odds of re-capturing central Bakhmut (by July) down from 35% to 19%

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Wagner say they have captured entire Bakhmut UKR says it still controls district on westernmost edge 🚨 RUS market odds of capturing west Bakhmut up from 65% to 95% (Despite recent news of RUS retreats. 50 mins ago NYT published "How Ukraine Reversed the Momentum in Bakhmut")

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

7 months

@Polymarket @metaculus @InsightForecast Israel-Hamas conflict casualties by 2024 ( @ManifoldMarkets )? Palestine ◦ 8-16k: 35% ◦ 16k-32k: 38% ◦ 32k-64k: 18% Israel ◦ 1.5k-2.5k: 58% ◦ 2.5k-3.5k: 22% ◦ >5k: 13% Egypt allows Palestinian refugees? ◦ by Nov 1 @Polymarket : 8%, up from 6% ◦ by Nov 20 @GJ_Open : 25%, up…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

@browserdotsys You're right, it didn't happen as described It was a constructed scenario, not a 'real' simulation The article is misleading

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Important context about this story from @harris_edouard (hat tip @andrewb10687674 ) It was a constructed scenario (i.e. prepared story), not a rules-based simulation: The headline is misleading

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Update: Forecast links improved Should be easier to clickthrough to each prediction market now (Working on something even better on this, planned for the medium term) Thanks to @NoaNabeshima & @NathanpmYoung for the feedback Charts are made using @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

11 months

Important context: Original 🇷🇺'Prigozhin is still under investigation' report (which others appear to be based on) cited an unidentified source as saying 'there had not been enough time to close the case' (Any real Russia experts confirm this means slow bureaucracy or…

Visegrád 24

@visegrad24

11 months

BREAKING: A source in the Russian Prosecutor General's Office has told TASS that the criminal case against Prigozhin hasn’t been closed after all. No amnesty for Prigozhin?

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

There was a newsletter collating the biggest changes on @metaculus by @jakobgreenfeld The Base Rate Times highlights which news stories are shifting prediction markets e.g. Odds of Bakhmut falling went 5%-->75%(!) after reports of risk to supply routes

Jakob Greenfeld

@jakobgreenfeld

2 years

On Monday I saw a newsletter with the list below and someone commented "this is what the news always should look like". So I wrote a little script that compiles a daily newsletter just like that:

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

@jaschasd Yes, a version of it will be up later this week I will also continue to post updates on X/Twitter

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

@AnnieJacobsen The article is misleading, there will likely be a correction issued It was a constructed scenario, not a simulation

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Important context about this story from @harris_edouard (hat tip @andrewb10687674 ) It was a constructed scenario (i.e. prepared story), not a rules-based simulation: The headline is misleading

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

⚠️Important context missing from my post: Prediction markets refer to overall winner, which will likely be determined after a 2nd round. Polling numbers will change once there are only 2 candidates, therefore my comparison is misleading. My apologies!…

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

4 months

🇫🇮 Finland's presidential election is tomorrow Opinion polls suggest a close race, with center-right Stubb only 2 points ahead of greens Haavisto However, prediction markets show Stubb is 88% likely to win Unlike most European countries, the Finnish president holds executive…

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The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

7 months

@Polymarket @metaculus @InsightForecast @ManifoldMarkets @GJ_Open Israel-Hamas escalation risk, according to prediction markets: Any nation... ◦ Joins war on either side by 2024 ( @Polymarket ): 13% ◦ Joins war on Hamas side by 2024 ( @ManifoldMarkets ): 27% USA... ◦ Military intervention by Nov ( @Polymarket ): 8%, down from 9% ◦ Acknowledges…

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