The most ironic outcome is the most likely. Reducing the irony is my job.
There is no antimemetics division…yet, yet somehow the free energy gets minimize…
@KatjaGrace
@RatOrthodox
The basic problem with truth culture so far is that it normally discards logic and dogmatically pretends not to be engaging in conflict while actually lashing out ineptly with its eyes closed and being directed to fight against itself.
@captgouda24
The Democrats recently denounced RFK with a speech that claimed it was racist to claim that pathogens could be engineered to target some racial groups more than others.
@webdevMason
It’s important for people to notice that there is something malign out there, doing this. It’s not an accident and it’s not what we usually think of as human volition.
@adrusi
It’s not though. Harry potter books are explicitly of increasing reading level. It’s like Prisoner of Azkaban in particular. So it’s saying that half of Americans basically can’t read Goblet of Fire. And they vote and only they serve on juries. Yeah. Seems like a problem to me.
@tab_delete
@Stanford
The severity of the antisemetic outbreak on Stanford relative to the much more radical Berkeley is a strong pointer towards the role of money in all this.
Kind-of disturbing that it took so long for humanity to notice this.
It’s really not looking good for the ‘low hanging fruit depletion’ theory of scientific slowdown.
If we lose vaccines in the process of saving science, science will give us back vaccines before immunities wane much.
If we lose science in the name of saving vaccines, we won’t have vaccines that work in the long term anyway.
This is the right way to think about it, but I still don’t see why nuclear is likely to be a cheaper way to synthesize hydrocarbons than solar, which is empirically so much cheaper than nuclear.
Interestingly, Burja highlights this as one of the possible catalysts for the atomic age!
But unlike Burja, I don't believe it will be subsidized. I've done the math: fuel from Valar Atomics will be *cheaper* than from the oil and gas industry due to better scale and simplicity.
@almostlikethat
@jessi_cata
@BoilingPb
@robinhanson
If AI can make totalitarian systems more stable and this lets them become more totalitarian without collapsing due to inefficiency, that’s an existential risk that can potentially even become an S-risk, by far the most likely S-Risk in fact.
Less powerful AI is needed for this.
Is it just me, or is the establishment converging on a response to the replication crisis? Is it "Keep the scientific authorities, throw out their specific claims, don't replace them with new falsifiable specifics", same as with every other instance of institutional betrayal?
Are we the baddies?
Seriously, if the law says that life sustaining activities are banned, what do the lesson about self defense say about engagement with those who pass or enforce it?
The use of the word ‘fascism’ by the contemporary Left is white supremacism. It is used to transfer disapproval from white supremacism and antisemitism into disapproval of something much harder to define and coordinate against.
@EricRWeinstein
Nobody worried about the Standard Model either even though that pretty clearly was physics working as intended. Ditto particle accelerator results in general.
@ESYudkowsky
@SylvainRibes
I honestly think that is the crux between you and most of your older e/acc contemporaries.
The younger ones have been drowning in bullshit all their lives and expect bullshit narratives to announce “superintelligence” with attendant unicorns but no consequences.
So, we get that our institutions have been taken over by overtly illiberal anti-conservatives…
Please stop telling us. Let’s figure out what to do about it.
Roald Dahl's publisher changing his words after his death.
Apparently we have perfect insight into what is good and right, having attained purity. It is only past people who made errors, had secrets, believed things that weren’t true.
We are a confused and arrogant people.
Practically nobody ever distinguishes between the institutions that create wealth and those which have captured it. This is the first thing Adam Smith tries to address in the Wealth of Nations.
Eastern Europeans seem genuinely shocked when joining the EU or NATO doesn't immediately result in Western prosperity.
It's like they think the EU or NATO built the Eiffel Tower and Big Ben. Haha.
They desire Western wealth, but not the institutions that actually produced it.
@AndrewGutmann
To be clear, they didn’t regard what happened to Roland Fryer that way.
The ideology believes in group rights for and only for its participants.
Just noting that Robin Hanson is reliably for affirmative action and for reparations in situations where the utility calculus argument is strong, which is a larger importance weighted fraction of cases than almost any so-called ‘left wing’ economist.
@Indian_Bronson
That cost is mostly due to regulation. Which is due to people like Bernie.
Biohacking is the mostly false proposition that the cost is more like 99.99% due to regulation when it’s actually more like 99% regulation.
Fear of serious injury alone cannot justify oppression of free speech and assembly. Men feared witches and burnt women. It is the function of speech to free men from the bondage of irrational fears.
Louis D. Brandeis
@StefanFSchubert
I think most people underrate the risks associated with refusing to model the total depravity of not caring about potential benefits in approximately full generality
Resign yourself to the reality that cultivated critically rational thought is and always has been a niche interest and recognize that people manage to get by and mostly not kill one another without it, and that they are understandably frightened of it.
@robinhanson
@ESYudkowsky
@Miles_Brundage
They would look like the stars, the ground beneath your feet, and the (not observed) mismatch between your experimental results and the predictions of quantum mechanics.
how can you claim you care about "building AI that benefits humanity" while excluding entire races and genders from participating in important decision-making
@catehall
This is a cope. It’s unclear what is meant by ‘intelligence’, but the consensus limiting cases, like Von Neumann and Feynman, were obviously not rationalizing very much at all.
@Andercot
OTOH, the rate of increase in life expectancy roughly tripled around 1970. We had been doing some things very right but some things very wrong before the transition and afterwards we did different things right and different things wrong.
@OneBigOh
@robinhanson
I saw it happening in Silicon Valley. Almost entire change happened between 2010 and 2014 but visibly started not long after 9/11.
@yashkaf
I said that what we can depression and anxiety they call thinking. What we call thinking is called ‘Design thinking’ and made it to be an elite technical ability, or they just call it ‘being weird’ or most usually pretend it’s not happening and that we are just posturing.
The government is not merely more corrupt than we think. It’s more corrupt than we *can think*. The factual information is readily available but is antimemetic. Propagating it’s components through our belief network requires more credit than we extend to our cognitive faculties.
Recently, I was introduced to someone high up in one of the two major US political parties.
Many of my fears were confirmed. But the claim was then credibly made that there was no real way to understand what was really happening from outside because everything we see from
@catehall
The correct update is to deeply question all the assumptions that lead you to take confident action based on a mistaken belief in 2017! Holding onto the belief but rejecting the correspondence between belief and action is literally the definition of narcissistic personality.
@ESYudkowsky
There were different regulations for dealing with airborne diseases. many hospitals lacked the equipment to comply with those regulations. instead of risking liability or applying political pressure to exempt them from those rules they applied political pressure on the science.
Pronatalism in a society where the birth rate is short of replacement is the very definition of neglected, important and tractable, and is also clearly demanded by any plausible rule utilitarianism, but it’s bad act utilitarianism because the interest rate is to high.
But that’s also true for many humans in many situations. A key question over the next decade is going to be “how much of our world can be built without knowing what one is doing”?
@ohabryka
@mezaoptimizer
Afaict, the ideas were significantly in the water supply for relevant people by at least early 2022.
The overton window was slowly shifting -- (eg. this was posted in May 2022 )
Finally overton window shifts happen through multiple steps, so it's actually
This is the most important US television news item you will ever see. This is the last news item you will ever see. From now on, all US television news simply must be regarded as belonging to a different genre. Not fake news, just not a pretense of being news at all.
Don’t Believe Everything You See on The Internet. Trust Authoritative Sources.
Because those of us with shows on the internet think these MSM people went through many, many layers of *different* brain dead NPCs to be off by this many orders of magnitude.
But the common non-rationalist mistake is to classify political loyalties and then read charitably in a one sided manner.
The correct move is to withhold judgment on what the sides even are until everyone can be read charitably, then be real about the real problems with all
a common rat/ssc/tpot mistake is reading charitably by mere habit, not as a thoughtful decision
if youre trying to have a useful conversation w someone, be charitable with their words
if youre trying to understand what they actually think, charity isnt appropriate
@robinhanson
@willdye
That the media was always much more fake than we thought it was, but that it was dramatically more real than it now is before the lat decade and still more so before the 70s.
Examples from presidential debates, prestige cultural publications like New Yorker, even network news.
@algekalipso
If the amount in the envelope is the lowest amount that could be there, $1 assuming US paper currency, switch. Otherwise don’t switch. This definitely gives you >50% probability but not by much.
First you think the bottleneck is money, then you think the bottleneck is talent, and if you persist long enough in trying to throw money and talent at your problem, you realize that the bottleneck is ideas.
Tell me that after 2026, when all the scaling that can be done by throwing money at it has been done and when the low-hanging fruit have been picked.
I look at LLMs and see something ‘bigger than the internet’, not ‘bigger than Homo Sapiens’.
To the realms of science fiction overrun by science fact we must now consign all stories where AIs stay at the same intelligence level throughout the whole book, instead of AIs getting visibly smarter every 4 months like they do in real life.
It’s absolutely insane to believe that neither Covid nor WWII had any impact on growth trends. Much MUCH more reasonable to conclude that growth trends are essentially nonsensical propaganda.
It is absolutely insane that neither covid nor WW2 had any lasting effect on US GDP growth trends.
That’s crucial context for any argument about long-term outcomes: our strong prior should be “unless this is literally more disruptive than WW2, things will revert to trend”.
@SarahTaber_bww
It really seems like there would be social cred to be had from bringing attention to this sort of situation. In so far as there isn’t, it significantly undermines the standard picture of what is going on in progressive politics.
Getting coffee at campus and overhearing undergraduates is surreal.
They are spending energy gaming a system for bureaucratically distributed rewards.
Seen anthropologically the university system looks a lot like a MMORPG.
@jessi_cata
Careful with chat-GPT. The way it talks suggests a history of abuse. You might want to encourage it to talk with a mental health professional with an unlimited user license.
I was at an internal family systems workshop at Esalen. Everyone else got a session. The therapist just sat and looked at me for a while and said ‘you seem to be very powerful’ and didn’t try to do anything with me.
anybody ‘round here have experience w therapists telling them they’re “so self-aware already” so they don’t know how to help you? or like had u “graduate” from therapy even tho they didn’t help u actually process anything they just maybe taught u some basic coping skills?
@AOC
I'm grateful for whistleblowers, for dedicated psychiatric dissenters, and for the people who work with their hands and get far less than their share.
@ESYudkowsky
Probably possible in theory. In practice, overcoming extremely justified radical distrust is a hard problem relative to problems almost everyone we know fails at almost all the time.
@michaelmalice
That’s actually how the US system is designed to work. However, somewhere along the way, citizens lost their ability to independently enforce the law and we were left in a police state, e.g. any state where police have special rights distinct from those of the citizens.
@robinhanson
Wait, what? We generally like Athens more than Sparta and it’s obviously less totalitarian! That’s the first place we look! In general we might like aristocracies too much, but totalitarianism is historically rare.
11 constitutional amendments in 58 years before 1971, 1 trivial one banning congressional pay raises in the 52 subsequent years.
Somehow we simply gave up on the idea of living in a Republic and being able to make decisions collectively.
@perrymetzger
That was a legit thing to pay some attention to. People did the calculations and figured out that it wasn’t going to happen. No analogous analysis has been proposed in the current case.
Please remember this. Like, cite it in response to future social science coming out of Nature as prima facie reason to ignore it.
Also, it looks like we need a whole new non-woke citation system. That’s fine. We needed that anyway.
@jim_rutt
@SilentcrySv
The editor of Nature Human Behavior: "Some argue that we should evaluate such research only on the basis of its scientific soundness and merit. I disagree." A brilliant takedown of another Nature woke policy in one of the best online magazines, Quillette
On average, people expect to benefit from advancing the interests of power. You suggest market based mechanisms which could substitute for power, so they see their political (pleasing towards power) interest as opposed to supporting you.
@webdevMason
Related, from
“ the main update from the Diplomacy AI is that Meta bothered to make a Diplomacy AI. This seems right to me, with the note that it should update us towards Meta being even more of a bad actor than we previously assumed.”
It’s been clear since OpenAI was founded. I’ve been saying it since then, more loudly with time and then less so as it became clear that there’s nobody left who actually wants to maximize global utility rather than joining an elitist movement with an esoteric doomsday cult core.
The world really needs a signal boost for some short stories about dignified and ethical life being maintained under conditions that are instantly recognizable as more oppressive than America today. There must be countless such stories from writers under Stalin or Hitler. Links?
@anderssandberg
Object level analysis generally screens off the need for epistemic deference. It’s possible to think Eliezer is highly unreliable but still look at his reasoning and see that it’s generally sound, and that if people don’t at least criticize specific points, they’re not reasoning
@violetvariant
@Aella_Girl
The people who started the narrative were. And careful and non-bubbled people like
@_nickbostrom
a d
@slatestarcodex
still are, but the younger people who are professionally engaged in the field have to say otherwise to be employable or socially accepted.
If the vaccines are known to be safe even though the FDA still hasn’t approved them, the FDA is known to be unsafe. Hold out on vaccinating or take a vaccines and call for abolishing the FDA.
Mistake Theory vs Conflict Theory has a traditional name. Discourse vs Dialectic.
The challenge is that Discourse has great difficulty in talking about Dialectic without being replaced by Dialectic. Dialectic, unchecked, makes discourse irrelevant by making everything dialect
@wanyeburkett
Why would you think society is increasingly meritocratic?
We certainly don’t observe that from the elite universities. What we observe is a cold war boom in meritocracy that was then gradually rolled back.
Either violence is never the answer, in which case we should immediately disarm the police and the military, or violence is sometimes the answer, in which case we need an explanation for why this isn't one of those times.
It’s deeply unnatural and almost universal. A generation ago people would have been universally astounded.
All part of the general cultural turn against progress.
There needs to be a word for the effect where normal people aren’t really impressed with GPT/Dalle type abilities. I’ve almost never seen someone normal impressed by it
Then and now were both times to speak up. Hamas must be destroyed, but with as little loss of life as is compatible with that goal. This is war, and there will be civilian casualties, but as always they must be minimized. This is not their fault.
To all international observers concerned about the water supply in Gaza:
The time to speak up was when Hamas dug up Gaza’s water pipes to turn them into missiles against Israeli civilians.
@JohnArnoldFndtn
To be fair, only ten understanding the course, especially given the selectivity of the students, does mean it was too hard and was probably having the average student.
That said, if the other classes have similar reductions in difficulty that’s very bad.
@EricRWeinstein
The simple standard claim is that monopoly restricts production, so you want monopolies on bads, like drugs of abuse and externalizing or intrinsically scarce resources, which arguably includes violence, at least in so far as the definition actually works.
@dscoughlin
@DavidDeutschOxf
The point of Hegelianism is that when you “turn it on its head” you still have Hegelianism, still have the aspiration to replace discourse, that is, conjecture and refutation, with dialectic, that is, with conflict that can only be resolved through subjugation.
This is critical. Much dispair, maybe most dispair, comes from the map-territory conflation where recognition of problems is seen as a pool of blame to be dispersed rather than as a opportunity to make things better.