While the United States tends to be deemed "weak" if it can't prevent cracks in the postwar order, China and Russia are often portrayed as "strong" simply for introducing such stresses.
That gap in evaluatory criteria risks overly pessimistic appraisals of U.S. foreign policy.
I'm excited to join
@EurasiaGroup
's Global Macro team and am grateful to all who've extended warm welcomes.
There's certainly no shortage of political risks, so I'll be exploring and learning a great deal every day.
While it's often observed that China has a patient, long-term grand strategy, its actions this year—most recently its passage of legislation that tightens its grip over Hong Kong—bespeak an impulsive, overreaching diplomacy that's placing Beijing into a deepening diplomatic hole.
This story hasn't received as much attention as it should; it's another indicator that longstanding allies of the United States are responding to its foreign policy by envisioning arrangements and institutions that circumvent its reach.
"News is information that's required in a democratic society, and Thomas Jefferson said a democracy is dependent on an informed citizenry. That sounds corny, but I don't care whether it sounds corny or not. It's the truth."
Rest in peace, Jim Lehrer.
Hats off to you,
@SummiaTora
!
"In October, Summia, now 22, will become the first Rhodes Scholar to hail from Afghanistan, one of 102 students to earn a place in the 2020 class of the world's oldest postgraduate scholarship."
I'm pleased to share that I've contracted with
@politybooks
to write a book on great-power competiton.
@LKnightPolity
, thank you very much for giving me this opportunity and helping me refine my proposal.
I'll be turning to many of you for insights and critiques along the way.
A sobering report by
@vermontgmg
"[E]xperts are anticipating an election in which it's harder to vote, harder to count the votes, less clear who's won, and more unpredictable than any election Americans have lived through."
The summit cancellation leaves Seoul feeling confused and embarrassed. Trade frictions are increasingly straining Washington's ties with Tokyo. Add in an inconsistent U.S. approach to China, and the current outlook for U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific isn't promising.
I’m pleased to share that I’ve joined the
@CrisisGroup
as its senior research and advocacy advisor for U.S.-China relations.
I hope to advance efforts to ease tensions, manage crises, and prevent conflicts between the world’s two most powerful countries.
THREAD: After well over two and a half wonderful years at the
@RANDCorporation
, I'll be taking a bit of time to pursue some writing projects.
I wanted to share a few reflections on my last day.
[1/6]
Fiona Hill tells
@EliseLabott
that the United States must demonstrate anew its political system's problem-solving capacity.
"It's on us to basically fix ourselves, all the chaos and confusion, polarization, partisan infighting, you name it."
THREAD: I'm pleased to share that my book "America's Great-Power Opportunity" is now available for preorder.
@politybooks
will publish it in the UK on April 29th and elsewhere on July 5th.
[1/8]
THREAD: I don't remember the last time that I was this excited to explore a new issue of
@ForeignAffairs
.
Major kudos to
@dankurtzphelan
and the rest of the team for tackling perhaps the most fundamental question of international relations.
[1/3]
Wonderful advice from
@dynarski
: "If someone has positively shaped your life and work, let them know. No one is too famous or accomplished to be lifted by your kind words."
In a
@nytopinion
piece,
@jessicacweiss
and I argue that the United States should invest anew in its competitive advantages at home and abroad, appreciating that hypernationalism will undercut China's long-term strategic prospects.
I'd urge folks to read
@AshaRangappa_
's piece "Disinformation, Democracy, and the Rule of Law". This paragraph should be the foundation for any discussion on the impact of Russian disinformation operations on U.S. society.
THREAD: “America’s Great-Power Opportunity” launches in the UK today.
While the wider launch isn’t until July 5th, I thought I’d use the occasion to do something I’ve been wanting to do for a long time: spotlight some individuals who helped the book come to fruition.
[1/13]
A plane "carrying 80 tons of gloves, masks, gowns and other medical supplies from Shanghai touched down in New York on Sunday....[the United States is also] working with manufacturers from Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan, India, Honduras and Mexico."
THREAD: Dear friends,
Today marks the launch of my book “America’s Great-Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition”, published by
@politybooks
.
[1/14]
Who're some of your favorite foreign policy / national security rock stars under 30? I'd like to put forward some names for a potential opportunity.
Many thanks!
I've increasingly been relying on
@Robert_E_Kelly
's interviews, writings, and Twitter threads to understand both the complex history and current phase of U.S. diplomacy towards North Korea.
Be sure to follow his work if you don't already.
Today marks my two year-anniversary at the
@RANDCorporation
.
I think of RAND as an intellectual candy shop where folks take their work very seriously but don't take themselves too seriously.
I'm grateful that I get to work with and learn from brilliant colleagues every day.
Michèle Flournoy's "advice for those starting out":
"Don't worry about not having a grand plan. Find bosses and mentors that will help you develop to the next level, and don't be afraid to change paths.... Be a mentor to others."
Thierry Balzacq and Ronald Krebs have edited a grand (800-page!) volume on grand strategy, featuring an extraordinary roster of contributors.
It's forthcoming from
@OxUniPress
on 11/1.
Raising a glass to
@WarOnTheRocks
, which launched on July 8, 2013 and will be celebrating its fifth birthday tonight. Under
@EvansRyan202
's leadership, it has become one of the most important, influential platforms for examining the full range of national security challenges.
.
@HC_Richardson
tells
@RaviReports
that "when America is truly its best, ordinary people stood up, took power into their own hands, and expanded people's right to be treated equally before the law and to have a say in their government."
THREAD: I contributed an essay to the new issue of
@TWQgw
that weaves together several thoughts I've been trying to develop on formulating a more sustainable U.S. approach to China, and I wanted to outline them in this thread.
[1/15]
Building off of
@yuenyuenang
's tweet, I think it'd be useful to compile a list of geopolitical terms in widespread use that tend to obscure more than they clarify.
My top candidates for this year:
— "AI arms race"
— "Decoupling"
— "Great-power competition"
— "New Cold War"
The French political theorist Raymond Aron once observed that "the strength of a great power is diminished if it ceases to serve an idea."
A core part of the American idea has been, and must remain, an openness to people, ideas, and influences from the rest of the world.
The desire to study, learn, work, and ultimately immigrate here is one of the largest components of America’s soft power.
It’s what has made our research enterprise the world’s envy.
We need smart ways to mitigate the China threat that don’t destroy our golden goose. (End)
THREAD: Fears over crises involving Ukraine and Taiwan have elicited a new wave of commentary on America's seeming weakness, similar to that which followed Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Here are a few scattered reactions.
[1/8]
Lots of folks will be staying up for a while. I think a good way to pass the time is to spotlight our role models.
@EBKania
is one of the world's foremost scholars of China’s military modernization and technological innovation. Her brilliance is rivaled only by her modesty.
I've been thinking a lot about
@amandataub
and
@Max_Fisher
's recent article "If Only Quoting Women Were Enough", and I wanted to give a shout-out to some amazing women from whom I've learned tremendously and continue to learn. Here are just 100 of them:
Exciting news: the
@RANDCorporation
has launched a Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy, led by
@MirandaPriebe
.
"The center will address analytical gaps so policymakers may consider fully developed options for future U.S. grand strategy."
.
@ryanl_hass
and I argue in a piece for
@ForeignPolicy
that China's current diplomacy gives Washington the space to pursue a foreign policy that's informed by Beijing's resurgence but not governed by it.
Many thanks for the opportunity,
@BeijingPalmer
.
Kurt Campbell and I explore the risk of inadvertent escalation between the United States and China in the latest installment of
@lawfareblog
's "Foreign Policy Essay".
Many thanks to
@dbyman
and
@JDanaStuster
for providing such helpful comments and edits.
THREAD: Here are some books I'm looking forward to reading over the coming months, arranged in ascending chronological order:
@CooleyOnEurasia
and
@dhnexon
, "Exit from Hegemony: The Unraveling of the American Global Order" (4/1)
[1/25]
Revisiting
@JimGoldgeier
and
@ProfSaunders
's discussion of "the kind of quiet, routine actions that make U.S. foreign policy run smoothly. Such efforts are not dramatic, but they are essential, and their absence could severely undermine U.S. interests."
Deepening Sino-Russian ties will likely intensify discussion of whether Washington can drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow.
That outcome is increasingly unlikely. The United States should instead prioritize the renewal and durability of its core alliances and partnerships.
Events of recent days affirm that the greatest threat to America's standing in the world comes not from an external challenger, but from its internal dysfunctions.
Its long-term competitiveness will rest above all else on its capacity for self-renewal.
THREAD: If the United States is indeed in an era of "great-power competition", it needs to develop more consistent metrics for gauging, respectively, China and Russia's power and influence.
[1/11]
THREAD: Many observers have ventured that America's response to the coronavirus pandemic could streamline China's path to replacing the United States as the world's preeminent power.
It's important, though, to assess both Beijing's capacity and its willingness to do so.
[1/11]
"[W]hat happens in the world is not determined by Americans alone....Anyone who thinks that the lines of influence from Washington are like so many strings to so many puppets has never sat at the pulling end."
— McGeorge Bundy, "The End of Either/Or,"
@ForeignAffairs
(1/67)
THREAD: A few pieces I'm looking forward to reading:
#1
:
@agoldstn
, "China's Grand Strategy under Xi Jinping: Reassurance, Reform, and Resistance,"
@Journal_IS
, 45:1 (Summer 2020): pp. 164-201
[1/3]
Anthony Borges should be a household name. He barricaded a classroom door and saved 20 people from the Parkland gunman, but was shot five times in the process. He has an arduous road to recovery ahead of him, and he deserves our praise and our support.
THREAD: One of the books I'm most looking forward to reading this year is
@ryanl_hass
's "Stronger: Adapting America's China Strategy in an Age of Competitive Interdependence", forthcoming on 3/9.
[1/2]
THREAD: Here are ten pieces published this year that clarified my thinking on China’s economic development and foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, and cross-Strait tensions.
[1/11]
Last month China and the EU agreed to set up a working group on updating global trading rules. Now their cooperation is broaching additional issues: "Beijing and Brussels are effectively writing the rules that may determine the future of the internet."
THREAD: To mark my last day at
@EurasiaGroup
, I’d like to share a few reflections on the organization that has given me such a wonderful home for over three years.
[1/6]
I'm honored to be one of the drafters of this statement, which urges support for Asian diaspora and AAPI communities.
I'm also grateful to
@EBKania
and
@chenniferann
for spearheading this initiative and to all of the signatories for offering their backing.
I suspect that historians a generation hence will ask, with equal measures exasperation and bewilderment, how it came to pass that the gravest crisis of this century's early years moved the United States and China so quickly from competitive coexistence to unrestrained hostility.
Incredible
"After China released the genetic sequence of the new virus in early January, scientists at Moderna and the National Institutes of Health were able to zero in on the design for a vaccine in just two days."
THREAD: Question for the Twitterverse: what major reports have been published in the past year or so that aim to articulate a new U.S. strategy towards China?
Here are the ones I have on my list so far:
[1/6]
THIS paragraph from
@KoriSchake
's essay in the new issue of
@ForeignAffairs
!
It's the natural yet unhelpful conceit of every generation to contend that the United States has never endured more toxic internal politics or confronted a more dangerous security environment.
Grateful to John Ikenberry for sending a copy of his forthcoming book "A World Safe for Democracy", and eager to read and learn.
Time to brew a fresh pot of coffee!
Just one of the many intriguing judgments in this report
ODNI assesses with high confidence that China "did not view either election outcome as being advantageous enough for China to risk blowback if caught [deploying interference efforts]" (p. 7).
Just back after an exceptionally enriching week in Taiwan, which I had the privilege to visit as part of this year's
@CSIS
Taiwan-U.S. Policy Program.
Thank you for being our fearless leader,
@BonnieGlaser
!
I argue in a piece for the
@LowyInstitute
that an indefinite cohabitation between the United States and China is more likely than the CCP's demise or the emergence of a China-dominated order.
Many thanks for the opportunity,
@danielflitton
.
Wishing a very happy birthday to
@RachelRizzo
, a transatlanticist extraordinaire, the director of programs at the
@TrumanCenter
and the
@TrumanProject
, and, most importantly, a generous friend to and champion of many.
I'm grateful to continue my affiliation with the
@WarInstitute
as a fellow and am humbled to be among such august company.
I'm eager to learn from all of the other fellows, the senior fellows, and the adjunct scholars.
.
@Joe_Nye
concludes that "we are locked in a 'cooperative rivalry' with China in which we need a strategy that can accomplish two contradictory things at the same time."
Today's reflections on the events of January 6, 2021 bring to mind Kennan's long telegram:
"Every courageous and incisive measure to solve internal problems of our own society...is a diplomatic victory over Moscow worth a thousand diplomatic notes and joint communiqués."
.
@dandrezner
"You will not profit in the short run, but if you have patience, you will prosper in the long run. It's a bearish market for American foreign policy, but the fundamentals are decent. Buy low. Go and serve."
A Pakistani immigrant, Kazi Mannan is the owner of Sakina Halal Grill, where I had dinner tonight with some of my best friends.
Since he took over in 2013, Sakina has served tens of thousands of free meals to DC's homeless.
People such as Kazi restore one's faith in humanity.
As technological competition with China intensifies, how should the United States weigh considerations of national security, economic vitality, and soft power?
@EBKania
explains how it can strike that challenging balance.
Here's our
@ConvSix
podcast.
.
@audryewong
's piece in the new issue of
@ForeignAffairs
is one of the best big-picture assessments I've read of the nature, outcomes, and limitations of China's economic statecraft.
.
@KoriSchake
"Fixing our domestic failures is actually the best answer to the international challenges the US faces. It must be the president's first priority in 2021."
That the U.S.-China relationship is deteriorating isn't surprising; the speed and scope of its erosion, however, are sobering, especially when it's unclear if there's a basis for restoring even a minimum baseline of stability.
I want to express my deep gratitude to
@dhnexon
, who took an hour and a half from a packed schedule to react to, help me refine, and offer historical context for the arguments I'm hoping to develop for my book project.
Thanks so much, Dan.
Yes!
"Strategies, however, need to be tangible and prescriptive, rather than nebulous and descriptive....competition is a means not an end. As such, it fails to describe what the United States wants to accomplish."
Dr. Ben Barres has passed away. This sentence from affirms just how devoted he was to his colleagues and students: "Barres spent his last days and final hours making sure that the letters of recommendation he had written for others were ready."
Just came across this April 1997 article that, with minor updates, could've been written today.
Even as Sino-Russian ties grow in scope and intensity, they remain more rooted in shared grievances against the West than in a common vision of world order.
THREAD: I (very belatedly) wanted to flag this excellent
@ProSyn
piece by
@arvindsubraman
, who questions the conclusion that we're witnessing a traditional power transition between the United States and China.
[1/6]
.
@Jenkinsbd
is a nominee for 2020 Arms Control Person of the Year.
Ambassador Jenkins is a giant in the field of arms control and an indispensable catalyst of efforts to increase the diversity of the U.S. foreign policy community.
Click below to vote!
I'm looking forward to talking with Fiona Hill about my forthcoming book, and I'm grateful to
@JimGoldgeier
and
@AlexMStark
for hosting the discussion as part of a new
@NewAmerica
/
@BtGProjectDC
seminar series.
Please join us at 1pm EST on Thursday, 6/9.
Opportunities don't come much more exciting than this one: the application to be a
@BelferCenter
fellow opens tomorrow, 12/18.
I can't say enough about the output Belfer produces, the impact it generates, and the community it fosters.
.
@ryanl_hass
,
@BonnieGlaser
, and Richard Bush's forthcoming book will be a must-read.
They "make the case for why conflict in the Taiwan Strait is not preordained."
If the United States is concerned about China's growing sway in prominent international institutions, it should reassess the prudence of withdrawing from and/or threatening to reduce funding for those institutions.
Only if Washington is present can it hope to reform them.
Just finished "The Queen's Gambit".
I love the different ways in which so many of Beth's supporters come through for her in the last episode.
Here's especially to the Mr. Shaibels of the world, whose kindness and guidance leave a far greater imprint than they'll ever know.
To read:
@DerekJGrossman
is the lead author of a new
@RANDCorporation
report that "leverages Chinese primary-source materials to understand the current state of Beijing's national big data strategy and the implications of this strategy."
My power just came back after having been gone since yesterday morning.
To those who've been working day and night since the snowstorm to restore folks' power: I wish I knew your names and could thank you personally. You make the world run—quietly and, too often, thanklessly.