My wife just returned from a 12 hour shift as a nurse. I'll spare you all the details, but it's bad out there. Do the easy thing, the compassionate thing, the right thing. Wear a damn mask folks.
After 9/11, it was considered patriotic to join the military.
After 1/6, if you want to serve your country, become a middle school or high school history or civics teacher.
Getting tired of politicians telling me what I should be OUTRAGED by. I can figure that out on my own. And I'll tell you what I'm OUTRAGED by. The events of January 6, 2021 and the Capitol Insurrection. I'm OUTRAGED by the insurrectionists & those who provided them with support.
Every single American should be OUTRAGED by this:
Democrats just voted to ban voter ID nationwide and force every state to permanently expand mail-in voting.
Can we finally stop mentioning
#Russia
in the phrase "great power competition"?
Yes, Russia has nukes & energy reserves but it can hardly be considered a great power based on its military performance in Ukraine & now it's being overrun by a hot dog vendor turned mercenary chief
Many folks in the West cheerleading the current chaos in
#Russia
.
I'm no fan of
#Putin
or
#Prighozin
(an understatement), but be careful what you wish for; you just might get it.
Total anarchy in a nuclear-armed nation is never a good thing.
There are no good guys in this.
U.S. deterrence in the Middle East is not working. Iran isn't deterred. Hezbollah isn't deterred. The Houthis aren't deterred. Shia militias in Iraq aren't deterred.
Iran is more brazen today than it has been in decades.
Feels like the social fabric is fraying. Little sense of community. Everyone for themself. Visceral tribalism. Conspiracies rampant. For those of us that study political violence, this formula is eerily familiar. Not trying to be hyperbolic but 🇺🇸 is heading to a bad place folks
The politicization of mask-wearing may very well turn out to be the most foolhardy, myopic & counterproductive aspect of this whole clusterfuck, half-hearted, completely inept response from the
@realDonaldTrump
administration. This guy has been a total nightmare, as we expected.
As a terrorism researcher, I'm used to following situations like the one at the
#PittsburghSynagogue
today. I'm used to commenting, & cautioning, and analyzing. But I feel numb. I always wondered if it would happen here, and now it has. I'm so sick of this shit, when will it end?
It's crazy because our daughters are young, but kids are so perceptive & they grasp what's happening (more than some adults). They are worried about their mother & I just tell them "Mommy is helping really sick people to get better & she's a hero." Fuck, this shit is so damn sad.
I'm extremely concerned that we could see another incident like the Oklahoma City bombing (1995) given the current wave of anti-government extremism in the United States.
How many Timothy McVeigh wannabees are out there in this country?
It's also incredibly frustrating because, this shouldn't be so difficult to grasp. Straight up. Wear a mask, fewer infections, fewer hospitalizations.
Cool, easy enough. Not a major sacrifice here mafakhas, as my dude
@AmarAmarasingam
would say.
Hearing too much whining from Biden supporters about not wanting to escalate the war in the Middle East. It would be great to not have to worry about that, but Iran is escalating, so it's well past time to respond. Life isn't unicorns & gumdrops, Tehran needs to feel some pain.
Pivotal moment here for the Biden administration. Anything less than a full-throated response against
#Iran
will invite further attacks against U.S. troops. Half-assed response would also leave Biden vulnerable to attacks from domestic political rivals accusing him of being soft.
While we're at it, I'm OUTRAGED that basic things like mask-wearing during a GLOBAL PANDEMIC have been politicized. It's cost the lives of so many Americans. If we're going to be OUTRAGED by something, shouldn't it be the needless deaths of our most vulnerable citizens?
🚨 Job Opening 🚨 The Wagner Group, a private military company, seeks a new chief executive officer. Salary commensurate with experience. 401k, vision, dental, medical (life insurance not offered...can explain more during interview). Must be open to travel (including to Africa).
I have a piece dropping in
@latimes
tomorrow looking at how the anti-vaxxer & anti-lockdown movements have overlapped with the broader far-right extremist movement, both in the US & Europe. In short, the pandemic has been tailor-made for anti-government extremists of all stripes.
Given the sophistication of this
#Hamas
attack & reports of Israeli hostages in
#Gaza
, I don't think
#Israel
will be satisfied with bombing targets in Gaza. The Israeli response could include a ground invasion and soon look to Iran, which means there are real risks of escalation.
The scenes unfolding on U.S. college campuses where there is overt support for Hamas make me think we are seeing the birth of the 'New Left.' For a small percentage of these 'activists,' peaceful protest won't be enough. Big-time Weather Underground/Baader Meinhoff vibes.
Israel prides itself on having exquisite intelligence collection capabilities, both in terms of human sources, but also technical capabilities/collection. Hard to argue there wasn't a breakdown somewhere in the system, this is an intelligence failure with massive consequences.
With all of this talk about being "patriots," "defending the Constitution," and Capitol stormers comparing themselves to Holocaust victims, it's clear that as a country, we have fundamentally failed to educate our population in civics, government & most basic aspects of history.
Putting together a small team to potentially invade an unnamed country over Memorial Day weekend DM me if interested.
Also, this will be a covert op so please exercise discretion. Thx.
Genuinely puzzled by people who are just now waking up to Russia's brutality. These guys have been wantonly slaughtering civilians in
#Syria
for years. Nobody gave a shit and most people looked the other way. So why the pearl clutching all of a sudden?
#StandForUkraine
If
#QAnon
begins to splinter soon, we'll need to pay attention to the emergence of potentially violent offshoots. We know some adherents possess the propensity for extreme violence, those who feel duped could grow exceedingly desperate & seek to lash out. Humiliation fuels rage.
BREAKING: Reuters reports that the United States believes Iran's Revolutionary Guards is involved in planning, executing and authorizing attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea
Every Gen-Zer who is admiring Osama bin Laden should be sentenced to 20+ hours of listening to Ayman al-Zawahiri's 'Best of' audiotapes.
Then come back and talk to me about how 'edgy' al-Qaeda is.
The total number of far-right terrorism incidents increased by 320% over the past five years.
Total deaths attributed to far-right groups increased by 52% in 2018 alone.
We're going to hear a lot about how the
#BuffaloNY
terrorist was a "lone wolf." But this term can be misleading. The terrorist may have acted alone, but he also radicalized & emerged from a far-right ecosystem that is far more entrenched & pervasive than most would like to admit.
I've never felt that transnational terrorism was an existential threat but the
#coronavirus
outbreak has helped me put things in perspective even more clearly. We spend way too much money on CT & frankly too much time & energy focused on it, at least compared to other challenges.
Be forewarned, anybody coming to my Thanksgiving dinner table speaking admirably about Osama bin Laden will be summarily drop-kicked and not offered dessert.
If these numbers are anywhere close to accurate, it would seem to be the return on investment of a lifetime for U.S. national security policy.
Still not sure why continued support for
#Ukraine
is controversial, other than myopic politicians doing what they do: playing politics.
"At the start of the war the Russian army stood at 360,000 troops. Russia has lost 315,000 of those troops, forcing them to recruit and mobilize new recruits and convicts from their prison system."
Me after a 45-minute presentation relying on data & empirical evidence to outline the domestic terrorism threat, when the first question is: "What about ANTIFA?"
Biden's comment that Putin can't remain in power seems less controversial today among "foreign policy intelligentsia" than it did just over a week ago.
1/ I spent years of my life researching/writing a Ph.D. dissertation on why some terrorist groups transition to political parties, while others don't. I've been neck-deep in the academic literature on mechanisms to facilitate this transition, as well as splinter groups/spoilers.
I know focus is rightly on 🇷🇺 unprovoked invasion of 🇺🇦, but I feel like the story of 🇩🇪 completely revolutionizing foreign/security policy, seemingly overnight, is one to be told. Berlin went from being mocked for sending helmets to dropping an additional 100b Euros on defense.
"Russian Mercenaries are Destabilizing Africa," my guest essay for
@nytopinion
discussing the role of the Wagner Group in the Sahel and what more needs to be done to counter its growing influence
@nytimes
Just a reminder that we're nowhere near on the other side of what Trump has created. Worth revisiting this piece from
@dbyman
in
@Slate
from June 2019:
1/ Quick thread 🧵 on the complexity of a possible
#Israel
Defense Force (IDF) ground invasion of
#Gaza
, specifically related to the underground network of tunnels & subterranean warfare, with credit to my
@TheSoufanGroup
colleague
@jcshelzi
for teaching me a few things
#Hamas
Amazing the lengths some go to in order to explain away the recent attack in
#Moscow
. Russia has long been on jihadis' list of targets. ISIS-K regularly threatens the Kremlin. U.S. intel warned about an imminent plot last week. No need to get creative. Occam's razor here, folks.
"The Rise of Right-Wing Parties in
#Europe
," please see our new
@TheSoufanCenter
#Infographic
breaking down the platform & popularity of some of 🇪🇺 most prominent far-right political parties.
Baffling to me that, when I'm in conversations with other analysts & I criticize the IDF's targeting practices, especially after an incident like
#WCK
attack, the immediate refrain is to tell me about the horrors of Hamas. But shouldn't the bar for conduct be higher for IDF?
"Tonight, the Biden administration is asking the Taliban to reconsider any plans to take Kabul. We've even back-channeled and asked, 'pretty please with a cherry on top.'"
This is essentially what WH press briefers on Afghanistan sound like these days, beyond absurd.
A while back
@FBI
labeled QAnon a domestic terrorism threat. Some people scoffed at the notion.
After everything we've seen, is there any doubt that this "movement" is a serious threat to U.S. national security?
If your answer is, "but what about Antifa?" move along to Parler.
I'm getting sick of people telling me that because I'm critical of the United States I don't sufficiently "love my country."
Nonsense. I'm critical precisely because I love my country & we need to better & I hope & pray we can be better.
The younger generation deserves better.
We just watched what happened in
#Israel
when domestic politics interfered with military readiness.
We're now repeating the same exact thing here in this country.
This is not just shameful, it's extremely dangerous to U.S. national security.
#Tuberville
Sullivan: It is estimated by the end of this year, 89% of all general officer positions in the United States military will be affected by the current holds from Tuberville… This is hugely disruptive to readiness
ISIS will benefit from U.S. withdrawal.
I just saved you from reading ~994 additional words that would've reiterated this point through examples and comparative analysis.
You're welcome.
we barely survived the insurrection, massive socio-exonomic inequality, no strategy for immigration, still reeling from a pandemic, we're a country awash in high-powered weaponry...I could go on, but my sense is that 🇺🇸 might just crack the top ten on the Failed States Index
Tired of calling the Houthis "rebels." Can we please re-designate them as a Foreign Terrorist Organization so we can rightly and accurately call them what they are: terrorists?
Netanyahu is first & foremost looking out for himself, I honestly don't believe that he has the best interests of Israel at heart. His actions consistently prove that he's self-serving & his policy choices are myopic.
The same people that told you about a legitimate peace process also told you that the Afghan security forces could hold their own. They told you that the
#Taliban
would break with AQ. They were wrong at every single turn. Don't believe them when they say AQ won't regenerate in 🇦🇫
My students ask me frequently, "why did you choose this career?"
The most honest answer I can give: I can't shake the image of innocent civilians leaping to their deaths from the World Trade Center on
#September11
. Might sound weird, but I think about it every day.
#NeverForget
When
@SecPompeo
makes his run for President, I hope he's haunted by the question he barked at
@NPRKelly
"Do you think Americans care about [expletive]
#Ukraine
?"
Given the outpouring of support I've seen in local communities throughout 🇺🇸, the answer is an overwhelming "yes."
I'm very honored to be joining the editorial board of Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, one of the premier academic and scholarly journals in the fields of terrorism studies, international relations, and foreign affairs.
Putin gambled, assumed huge risk & seems certain to lose. In the process, not only did Putin fail to achieve his goal, but in the end he hastened Russia’s demise and all but assured that 🇷🇺 is subsumed under 🇨🇳 hegemony. My thoughts in
@DefenseOne
#Ukraine
If you asked me which country would be the LEAST likely to have this level of intelligence breakdown/failure, I might have said
#Israel
. Still trying to process this. The post-mortem on figuring out what happened will be ugly, with a lot of finger-pointing & blame shifting.
#Gaza
Anyone that follows me knows full well I'm no fan of Trump. But if this Afghanistan withdrawal chaos happened during his administration, he'd be getting skewered (rightfully so). Media treating Biden with kid gloves for the most part so far.
Not all high-value targets (HVTs) are created equally. This was a big one, a longtime jihadist veteran and al-Qaida leader with a lot of American (and other) blood directly on his hands. The world is a much better place now that Ayman al-Zawahiri is no longer in it.
The Biden administration has ordered intelligence agencies to look at the threat posed by domestic violent extremism in the United States.
The new mapping project and resource library at
@TheSoufanCenter
is a great place to start.
I study disinformation. I analyze tactics used to wage influence campaigns/push false narratives. And still, every single day, I see several things in the news that take me a while to determine the veracity of. It's becoming more difficult to tell what's real & what's not. Scary.
Putin finally did it,
#Navalny
is dead. Let his death not be in vain, the West needs to wake up. If Putin has his way in Ukraine, he won't stop there. This is the real Russian system, on full display, despite the recent bullshit super market propaganda from a fake journalist.
I've made wisecracks about virality of bin Laden's
#lettertoamerica
on
#TikTok
, but to be serious for a minute: We're in desperate need of soul searching as a country. I'm astonished that we've failed so miserably to educate the younger generation & teach critical thinking skills
Very excited to announce a new
@TheSoufanCenter
project, "Mapping Insecurity: Tracking Domestic Violent Extremism," including an interactive map of arrests following the Capitol insurrection & a resource library on domestic violent extremism. Learn more 👇
IMO, the Ukraine war, as tragic as it has been, has allowed the United States to make great power competition a two-horse race between Washington & Beijing. Moscow is now left to lick its wounds and carry Xi Jinping's luggage around. Total junior partner status for the Kremlin.