Last week,
@USIP
published my latest report, “A Threshold Alliance: The China-Pakistan Military Relationship”. I detail how the partnership has advanced considerably in arms transfers, military exercises, and prospects for PLA basing on Pakistan's territory.
Buckle up...
Brought my dad to hear the Indian PM Modi speak alongside US Secretary of State Blinken. In the cab home, he says nonchalantly, “That’s the 2nd time I saw the Indian PM up close. The 1st was when Nehru & Khrushchev visited my elementary school and we all waved Soviet flags.”😳
I texted my parents this story where I was quoted made the front page of the
@nytimes
and they responded that there’s still time to apply for Med school 🤗
“A frmr Sr US intel official said:“This is Modi looking at the world & saying to himself ‘The US conducts targeted killings outside of war zones. The Israelis do it. The Saudis do it. The Russians do it. Why not us?’ And none of the[nations] we just mentioned pay much of a price”
In
@WarOnTheRocks
,
@tsagerstrom
& I argue the US is heading for a collision with India on CAATSA sanctions unless the Biden admin issues a waiver. Post-Afghanistan doubts are loud but sanctions—however small—will pose the real reliability crisis. THREAD
My essay in
@politico
today contends China is poised for military dominance of the Indian Ocean w/in a decade, the US bet on India is faltering, & focused US strategy can advance the US-India defense partnership to balance China’s influence in the IO.
Friends & Colleagues -- some professional news: Last week was my last at
@StimsonCenter
. It was a wonderful and stimulating 7 year intellectual journey. This week I began a new role as a Senior Expert in
@USIP
’s Asia Center.
This story brilliantly captures India’s geopolitical contortions. India is building the biggest statue in the world to dwarf the current biggest one, in China of course, ...by employing “several hundred Chinese labourers.”
Going to a “Friendsgiving” party this evening where everyone is supposed to bring a dish to celebrate their heritage. I’m rolling 30 samosas deep and a bottle of Black Label. Doesn’t get any more desi than that.
Seems significant: "In the first-ever ODA project in Andaman & Nicobar, Japan has approved grant aid worth ¥4.02 billion...to improve the power supply in the islands, stressing the strategic geopolitical location of the islands for an open Indo-Pacific."
🧵: I'm surprised at the persistence of Indian sympathy for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Not sure if its historical residues, elite cues, (dis)information, or genuine sentiment. But Indian public opinion seems quite distant from Europe, Quad, but also some BricS countries. 1/
In addition to GOP Senators backing a 10-yr CAATSA sanctions waiver for India which will soon induct the Russian S-400, this by
@politico
's
@alexbward
is as significant: "A SASC staffer hinted that this whole issue likely will be solved in the latest NDAA"
“New Delhi’s new stand has also prompted the IND milt to make an assessment of India’s response in case of a Chinese attack on Taiwan… CDS Gen. Anil Chauhan has asked the 3 services to come up with…options for India in the event of a full-blown crisis.”
Buying the MQ-9b armed drone would be an significant move by India, not because of the sale, but because it signals India’s commitment to build a joint maritime reconnaissance complex w/ the US (+Quad?) w/ P-8Is, MH-60Rs & MQ-9bs to track Chinese vessels.
Astonishing: “Most of the 800,000 immigrants currently waiting for a green card are Indian citizens. Because of quotas...Indians can expect to wait up to 50 years for a green card since their representation among immigrants is so high in the US.”
If you haven’t had enough Sino-Indian border crisis, here's a weekend read on key takeaways for US-India balancing efforts, and how US defense strategists might lean in to this opportunity.
But if the ice in your 🥃is melting, I'll try to summarize: 1/
INDUS-X launched by
@DefMinIndia
&
@DeptofDefense
yields ambitious collaboration agenda including: “joint prize challenges for start-ups, roundtable events, mentor-protégé initiatives btwn major primes & start-ups, and the formation of a Sr. Advisory Group”
Difficult to see how India can rely on Russia for modern weapons in future:
“Russia is cut off from modern semiconductors…Russia can still import low-end chips from China but it is the high-end chips that are…vital for todays advanced weapons systems"
In this excellent discussion on US-India relations, Amb. Juster notes of CAATSA: “The legislation was designed to affect Russia, not to harm partners like India...With this legislation we’re raising the risk of sanctions…I think this is crazy”(hastily scribbled down so inexact)
Re Quad, Tellis argues India has the greatest potential but remains a hesitant partner: "It is extremely difficult to get an expansive agenda of Quad activities not because there’s a lack of willingness on the part of the other 3; the lack of willingness is entirely in New Delhi"
When I was young, my mother once broke me out of school Ferris Bueller style to go see Home Alone in the theaters--a move so unlike her--but one I cherished. So I was thrilled to pull my daughter from school mid-day yesterday on a perfect day to watch her first
@Nationals
game!
Meanwhile in Bangladesh... “As many as 100,000 people flocked to the namaz-e-janaza of Maulana Jubayer Ahmed Ansari.” In one of the most densely populated countries in the world, a NYT update points out high risk of super-spreader event.
"PAF has collected vast amounts of experience in EW during the bilateral Shaheen series exercise w/ China. These exercises offer the PAF a rare opportunity to both fly and contest against the Chinese Su-27 & Su-30 aircraft to learn about their capabilities, weaknesses & tactics"
I'm thinking about Michael Krepon a lot this week. I want to share this tribute to him—"The Gift of Meaningful Work," named after a speech he gave in 2015—created by several of us who've been fortunate to call him a colleague, teacher, mentor, and friend.
Michael Krepon has been an incredible friend and mentor to me. After 13 years, he's written his final post at Arms Control Wonk because his time with us is drawing short. I am little choked up, to be honest.
Incorrect. Anyone working in Washington knows the Biden admin is laser focused on competition with China and the Indo-Pacific in all aspects for FP. It just may be surprising to some that a superpower can walk and chew gum at the same time.
Biden has been gradually easing pressure on China. As if to allay China's concerns, he has diluted the Quad's Indo-Pacific focus by broadening its agenda to everlasting global challenges like climate change and sustainability. Now he has brought in Ukraine and European security.
Concerned about chatter on CAATSA--that US would apply "very mild" sanctions on India, not to make a big deal & "mitigate an Indian backlash"--significantly underestimates Indian reaction. What US deems routine could spiral into another Khobragade crisis.
My toddler loves the view of the US Capitol building on the drive in to school. This morning, she says, “It’s so beautiful...Who made this for me?” Tripped up by the profundity of the question, I thought for a several moments, and then replied, “The people!”
From
@ajaishukla
: India's Mathura-based 1 Corps being repurposed as "a Mtn strike corps that would strike into Chinese territory from Ladakh...shifting an Ind strike corps from the Pak border to the border w/ China constitutes a powerful strategic signal"
I offer 4 takeaways from Trump’s India trip in
@washingtonpost
@monkeycageblog
.
1. The good: defense relations, arms sales
2. The bad: no trade deal
3. The ugly: disturbing communal violence sure to raise US eyebrows
4. The surprising: praise for Pakistan
Despite yesterday’s declared ceasefire, today marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2019 India-Pakistan crisis. In
@WarOnTheRocks
I suggest the new admin prepare for the next crisis to protect US interests: nuclear non-use, its citizens & Indo-Pacific strategy.
“This is more tech transfer than the US has ever authorised. We are breaking through into new frontiers”
Detailed piece on the GE jet engine deal with India by
@prashantktm
where an anonymous source,
@Cold_Peace_
, and I are quoted. cc
@USIP
IR/Security Profs: you can assign this new, amazing, *free*
@StimsonCenter
online course (chapters or full) on Deterrence, Coercion & the Indo-Pacific w/ lectures frm luminaries like Acton, Akhtar, Jervis, Khan, Li, Narang, Posen, Sagan, Sethi, Tannenwald, Talmadge, Zhang & more!
Hard not to read the Pakistan’s Special Asst to PM lauding a smooth power transition as endorsement of Taliban attempts to forcibly take power in Afghanistan & directly contradicts what PM Khan wrote in June “We oppose any military takeover of Afghanistan”
Afghanistan is presently witnessing a virtually smooth shifting of power from the corrupt Ghani government to the Taliban. According to some sources, this is being facilitated by the US and its associates. Virtually everything you claimed would happen has been blown away + 2/5
One thing we know for sure, the South Asian auntie/uncle mafia are going to be even more insufferable if that was at all possible ...
“Sure you’re a doctor but why can’t you try to be a VP?!?”
And so it begins... “Before writing off COIN, it is worth noting that it actually worked in Afghanistan when and where the United States committed sufficient forces to implement it.” 🙄
India building base on Mauritius's Agalega island to stage P8s: "India regards the new base to be essential for facilitating both air & surface maritime patrols in the SW Indian Ocean, and as an intelligence outpost."
@NSC_ANU
's Bashfield in
@LowyInstitute
Quite a time for this story!
“India open to including Australia in Malabar naval exercise” by
@suhasinih
&
@dperi84
“The inclusion of Australia in the Malabar exercise would be a major shift from the past for India’s Indo-Pacific plans”
“One of India’s advantages is geopolitical…the war in Ukraine has all but ended Russia’s role as a competitor...Likewise, the USG would be more likely to approve any Am. company’s sending milt-grade tech through India than through China” writes
@travelli
India's stock of major military equipment reveals India's dilemma. Despite serious efforts at diversification over 2-3 decades, the dependence is still astonishing. "Stock" matters because it still demands a "flow" of spares & support for sustainment affording Russia leverage. 3/
Even while I think India's arms dependence on Russia is v. sticky & the US has to plan around it, I'm starting to think Russia's invasion of Ukraine + the likely outcomes will compel India to significantly rethink its strategic partnership with Russia 10/
I've written a bit on motives & composition of India's strategic partnership w/ Russia, but as we think about how this war ends for Russia, I expect a major rethink in New Delhi. A quick sketch of 4 outcomes based on the two most salient variables--most are bad or worse for India
You discover the adult “walk of shame” when your 6 y/o insists on a one-way Frozen bike ride to school, and you’re left to lug it home past dozens of people who think you’re an Elsa bike thief.
In a
@ForeignAffairs
debate—"Will India Ditch Russia?"—I argue India will stick w/ Russia despite hope of a split. India's geopolitical calculus differs from the West, dependence on Russian strategic arms persists, & elite+public sentiment favors Moscow. 1/
“A company boss living in Gwadar…says that construction on the port project has been mothballed. ‘There is almost nothing going on in terms of building. We keep on waiting for China’s promises to follow through but there has been very little so far…”
Today is Michael Krepon's birthday so I'm sharing a toast I gave at his retirement party before he passed. At the time, I didn't know Michael was sick again. But after losing mentors in the pandemic w/o being able to tell them what they meant to me, I needed these words to count.
My mother just forwarded me an email from
@csa_stanford
advertising this jr fellowship and suggested I could have made something of myself if I had applied for it🤦🏾♂️
#DesiParents
"The invasion happened on a Thurs & by the next day, Elon had called together a meeting & said ‘I want to get Starlink up over Ukraine'…By Sun, the link was active. By Mon, 500 ground terminals showed up in UKR. By Wed…all but 25 terminals were alive&providing real-time data…"
Claims the US/West denied defense equipment to India seem unfair & incomplete. All parties made choices. Price & tech leakage were factors, as were political strategies. The USSR sought to foil Indian diversification to keep it on the hook & Delhi sought to appease Moscow. A 🧵1/
This is no sermon, just good strategy.
Tellis: “What India must do better is not simply to ask for more privileges from the US but rather create opportunities that yield sufficient benefits for the US to induce it to consider meaningful policy change.”
[THREAD]: Yesterday
@USIP
published this report by me & frmr
@StimsonCenter
colleague
@GillianGayner
: “India’s Kashmir Conundrum: Before & After the Abrogation of Article 370”. Here I unpack the report which focuses as much on pre-Aug. 5, 2019 as after. 1/
I've written a bit on motives & composition of India's strategic partnership w/ Russia, but as we think about how this war ends for Russia, I expect a major rethink in New Delhi. A quick sketch of 4 outcomes based on the two most salient variables--most are bad or worse for India
Ukraine crisis: India examines exposure to Russian arms.
DMA has collated info on current deals, pending payments, impact of delays.
Immediate and 6 month impact being assessed.
Concern as banks have deferred scheduled payments.
via
@ETPolitics
Page A1 of
@nytimes
: Every piece of this article on BRI/CPEC’s “military turn”—from Beidou sharing, to the PAF agreement, to total debt liability, to Chinese efforts to prevent disclosure in IMF negotiations—is important. Read it all.
The
@StimsonCenter
South Asia team is hiring! We're looking for a research asst to work in particular on our
@nuclearlearning
initiative. If you're hungry to study/work on nukes, deterrence, Asia security issues, & neat social science research, join us!
“[BECA] will take India into a select group of long-range missile powers, which can strike targets thousands of km away with an accuracy of 100 metres or less...The classified military signal of GPS is reputed to have an accuracy of one metre.“
India makes itself eligible for receiving high-tech US equipment, missile guidance and navigation by signing the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement on Geospatial Cooperation (BECA).
I describe the fourth and final "defence foundational agreement".
“Indo-Pacific Command told the Washington Examiner Friday that India stands to benefit from some of the PDI investment, especially infrastructure to improve multinational command-and-control and maritime situational awareness.”
THREAD: After toiling in obscurity, our humble India-Russia research made the big leagues thanks to
@abigailngwy
's CNBC article (citing our 85% figure) so allow me to elaborate w/ art the nature of India's arms dependence on Russia which shapes its risk exposure in this crisis.1/
Glad to see
@CNBCi
citing
@splalwani
@frank11285
@tsagerstrom
& my research on India's arms dependence on Russia.
Our paper on the historic, political, ideational, & material factors driving India-Russia ties is available here:
Thrilled to see this work with my colleagues
@clary_co
&
@NiloSiddiqui
finally make it into print. I want to take a moment though to say something about the genesis of this paper and how we can think of "policy relevant research" as a dialogue. 1/
An advance version of our article, "Public Opinion and Crisis Behavior in a Nuclearized South Asia" is now online! Thanks to the OUP/ISQ team for quickly getting it through the copy-editing process.
We are deeply saddened to share the news that Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Stimson Center and tireless advocate for international peace and security, passed away today at his home in Charlottesville, VA. Our thoughts are with Sandra, Misha, Joshua, and the entire family.
Unnamed sources on India-Pakistan ceasefire citing 5 recent "thaw" developments:
-Bajwa “hand of peace” speech
-toned down Kashmir solidarity day
-decline in ceasefire violations
-not raise Kashmir at SAARC
-PM Khan’s plane allowed to use Indian airspace
Notable confirmation: “Beijing’s request to the Taliban came after a joint China-Pakistan investigation showed ETIM & TTP colluded in a 7/14 bus bomb attack that killed 9 Chinese engineers working on the CPEC-related Dasu hydropower dam project in Pakistans upper Kohistan region”
With condemnations from Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, and now Iran, it’s clear now that India’s domestic religious nationalist dynamics could have meaningful foreign policy consequences.
The hearts of Muslims all over the world are grieving over the massacre of Muslims in India. The govt of India should confront extremist Hindus & their parties & stop the massacre of Muslims in order to prevent India’s isolation from the world of Islam.
#IndianMuslimslnDanger
“If India & the United States are going to be strong partners, both sides need to learn how to navigate serious disagreements w/out sweeping them under the rug, even if that means suffering some unpleasantness”. A thoughtful, nuanced essay by
@MarkeyDaniel
As both of India’s borders have heated up this summer, highly recommend this incisive analysis by
@SushantSin
in
@WarOnTheRocks
on India’s two-front dilemma and how it might navigate a path between (or potentially a modus vivendi with) Scylla and Charybdis
“If Pakistan knew that it couldn’t count on U.S. diplomatic cover to pull its chestnuts out of the fire, it would be more reluctant to risk a war” writes
@ElbridgeColby
This is why India will have a very bad strategic+polit reaction to even "modest" sanctions. Sanctions could even backfire and convince India it needs to rely less on the US and *more* on Russia. 6/
“India’s Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat announced last month that India will prioritize submarines over its third aircraft carrier.”
Sea denial > sea control
Good piece by
@Suyash_desai
of
@TakshashilaInst
“Not more than 350 cellphones and around 2,000 specially arranged satellite phones, mostly in possession of senior government functionaries, would remain functional”
THREAD:
@RichardRossow
&
@upadhyaya_kriti
suggest India has no way out from CAATSA sanctions:
1) US NatSec interests alone insufficient
2) S-400 cant escape “significant transaction” designation
3) difficult to defend taken “reduce [Russian] inventory” 1/
As we approach 2yr anniversary of the Pulwama-Balakot crisis, Im happy to see
@NinaTannenwald
's paper published by
@StimsonCenter
: "23 Years of Nonuse: Does the Nuclear Taboo Constrain India & Pakistan?" Stay tuned for upcoming
@SAVoices
discussion series!
It appears the Indian Air Chief used past tense but very significant if this implies India *continues* operational use of Ayni Air base in Tajikistan. Also yet another reason it maintains close ties with Russia. Cc
@LadyPutz
A rare public comment by service chief on India's Ayni air base in
#Tajikistan
,
@IAF_MCC
Chief ACM Bhadauria: It is an area that gave us huge capability in terms of being able to operating from there. It has given lot of goodwill and strategic importance and is going well.
Guys, this looks like a great event and I’m an avid consumer of your work, but there are at least 20 women within a mile who would have been great on this panel and you couldn’t find one?
@HudsonInstitute
Frmr ISI chief Durrani: "war in some hybrid form is already on...the only choice we have is to fight it now, or when our allies in IOK have been neutralised. Those in biz know how to fight it smart & also how to keep it below any perceived nuc thresholds"
“The US lacks almost 40 ambassadors…This is a situation that the Senate and Mr. Biden need to rectify quickly. Consider India — a critical partner in pressuring Russia and China. It has not had a confirmed ambassador since January.”
In
@WarCasts
,
@Justin_Br0nk
: "The biggest [lesson] that comes out of this [war] is just how effective medium-range SAMs are even when they’re not well-integrated into a larger defense system, and so we need to start taking SEAD seriously again across NATO"
Worthwhile read on PAF lessons from Balakot (it's been sitting in my reading list for a while but glad I read) by
@schaheid
in
@GVS_News
&
@FORCEmagazine
This will be an interview worth watching. Regardless of how you feel about the positions, Moeed Yusuf is a wartime consigliere and his contentions will likely reflect how the Pakistan strategic establishment approaches a whole range of issues from Kashmir to Afghanistan to China.
In the first interview to the Indian media by any Pakistani official after the constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019,
@YusufMoeed
revealed that India has sent a message expressing a desire for talks.
Highlights of the interview:
2) India brings extra value as a partner because its NOT a US ally. A state not beholden to US security protection standing for key ordering principles—rule of law, freedom of navigation+overflight, peaceful dispute resolution &territorial integrity—carries unique legitimacy…10/
“Multiple sources within the Indian Army in Jammu & Kashmir and New Delhi have now confirmed to [
@AdityaRajKaul
] about a BAT Action by Pakistan...The BAT action resulted in mutilation but the extent of the mutilation hasn't been officially confirmed yet.”
Two key passages from
@prashantktm
's interview w/
@JakeSullivan46
before PM Modi's State visit :
1) "...Any technology transfer with respect to jet engines is a vote of confidence in the strategic partnership with another country"
I never had the honor to study under or work for the late Stephen P. Cohen but I still learned a great deal from him. Though many others knew him better and I mostly admired him mostly from afar, I've been moved by others fond recollections to share some memories:
"all Pakistani F-16s are subjected to three kinds of monitoring. First, a 24/7 verification by remote cameras; second, periodic checks of aircraft; and, third, snap inspections." by
@Iyervval
in
@moneycontrolcom
The Taliban would have been energized by America reneging on Trump’s deal. American troops would obviously still be in the line of fire. To be sure, the Taliban wouldn't have made the gains it did, but America would almost certainly have had to put more forces in to respond. 8/18
Last week I wrote in
@WarOnTheRocks
why the US should avoid sanctioning India on the S-400. On the eve of the Quad summit, I write in
@htTweets
why India should appreciate the US's Russia dilemma & Indian actions that could improve CAATSA waiver prospects.