Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 @AlexGabuev Twitter profile

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

21 days

The deepening of 🇨🇳🇷🇺 alignment is one of the most consequential geopolitical outcomes of Russia's war against Ukraine. How so, and why is this important? I wrote about it in a new essay for @ForeignAffairs . Some key takeaways in a🧵1/20

Putin and Xi’s Unholy Alliance

Why the West won’t be able to drive a wedge between Russia and China.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

🧵Two weeks ago, as Vladimir Putin was declaring his vicious war on Ukraine, he called the West an "Empire of Lies." In fact, the Kremlin's disastrous move was itself rooted in lies, misconceptions and giant lapses of expertise & intelligence. 1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

🧵🇨🇳🇷🇺 Does China distance itself from Russia because of war against Ukraine? A terrific @FT piece helps to understand how Beijing wants its policy towards Moscow to be seen in Western capitals. Spoiler alert: the real policy might be very different. Let me help to unpack it. 1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

15/ Clandestine nature of Putin's decision-making on national security and deplorable state of Russian expertise on Ukraine were among factors contributing to ruinous decision to start this ugly war - a tragedy for Ukraine, and a catastrophe for Russia.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

🧵 Russia's requests for some types of 🇨🇳 military hardware look plausible. However, most likely the recent communication is part of an ongoing negotiation process that precedes Putin's invasion in Ukraine, not 🇷🇺 ask for an emergency military resupply for this war 1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

2/ Historians will know more about the decision-making process behind the tragic events. To date, this essay by @andrewsweiss & @eugene_rumer best captures Putin's motivation for going into this war. Unfortunately, it turned out to be prophetic.

Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business

Putin has stepped up his rhetoric about Ukraine throughout 2021. With new moves on the Russian-Ukrainian border, the saber-rattling has to be taken seriously.

carnegieendowment.org

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

3/ War preparation was conducted in high secrecy in order to avoid leaks. Instead of a rigorous interagency process, the whole war planning was reduced to a clandestine operation developed by just a handful of people in uniform and the president himself.

Alexander Gabuev writes from Moscow on why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

Elites have hijacked Russia and conflated the country's interests with their own

www.economist.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

3a/ Side note: given the secrecy, accuracy of 🇺🇸 intelligence community's predictions (even the public part of it spread through media and official statements) deserves credit, and explains why USG was so reluctant to share sensitive details that could endanger sources & methods.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

🫓🌽🚢THREAD Just a few weeks ago, it seemed that the Kremlin is determined to stick on its blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea, so today's Istanbul grain deal is an important about-face. What might have changed Putin's calculus, and is he sincere? Some brief thoughts.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

🚢🌽💥 THREAD Russia officially suspends the Istanbul grain deal for indefinite time. The Kremlin is desperately trying to put more pressure on Kyiv and the Western coalition supporting Ukraine. However, this audacious attempt to gain leverage may backfire against Moscow. 1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

10/ The other element of Putin calamitous decision to go to war was a long-standing paradox of the Russian foreign policy: the Kremlin has a more nuanced understanding of China or the Arab World than of its closest neighbors in the post-Soviet space, especially Ukraine.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

11/ The reasons are many. To start with, the Russian Empire has never perceived Ukraine as a "colony," and thus has never developed a discipline to study Ukraine as "the Other." When Putin wrote that Russians and Ukrainians are "one people," he actually meant it.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

4/ It looks like even during the planning of the military campaign, there weren't enough generals able to ask "what if" questions that could help to do serious contingency planning and get ready for other scenarios than just a speedy victory of the Russian troops.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

5/ Needless to say, the preparation to the Western sanctions response was even more flawed since Putin has kept his economic team entirely in the dark. This @FT piece by @maxseddon & @polinaivanovva accurately captures relaxed mood before the invasion.

Moscow’s sanction-proofing efforts weaken western threats

While Russia has stress-tested its economy and built up reserves, Europe has not reduced its energy dependence

www.ft.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Putin's remark today about "Ukrainian nationalists" shooting 🇺🇦 soldiers in the back in order to prevent them from defecting captures the challenge Kyiv and the West are facing: a reckless, emotional leader who has boxed himself into a terrible information bubble. A short 🧵

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

7/ It appears that Putin and his war cabinet have developed a false sense of security by the mere existence of these counter-sanctions plans. Nobody did a proper sanity check, while the economic team looked at doomsdays scenarios as "high impact & nearly zero probability."

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

12/ These problematic assumption has led to a giant flaw in the Kremlin's understanding of Ukraine. Hence 🇷🇺 diplomats & spies who didn't bother to learn the language or study the culture, and policymakers operating on stereotypes.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

6 years

Disclosure of identities of 305 #GRU operatives, the largest intelligence blunder in modern Russian history is entirely of domestic making, and only all-penetrating corruption and state erosion are to blame. Here is how it works 👇1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

13/ Back in 2014 my former @kommersant colleague Liza Surnacheva ( @Schroeding ) & I have looked into 🇷🇺 chain of command dealing with fallout of Maidan, and didn't find a single decision-maker with a sophisticated expertise on Ukraine.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

14/ The level of Ukraine expertise in Russia documented by @Schroeding in 2014 was terrifying, and it hasn't improved since. If anything, it only got worse.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

🚩🚩🚩 With 🇷🇺 looming annexation of more 🇺🇦 territory, and ongoing mobilization, we've entered the most dangerous phase of this war. Key reason is: Putin has boxed himself in, and will have no option but to keep going.🧵expanding on a recent @FT piece.

Putin has once again overplayed his hand in Ukraine

The Russian leader’s reckless moves have one goal: to turn the tables in a war he is losing

www.ft.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

8/ Vested interest around import-substitution (think Sergey Chemezov etc.) might be another factor explaining why Putin was lulled by the narrative that 🇷🇺 economy is nearly sanctions-proof, and all it takes is just throwing some more money to fix a few outstanding issues.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

9/ As a result, neither the war plan, nor the plan to address the economic fallout of possible Western sanctions was rigorously discussed and carefully vetted. The decision has never been run through a "Slepakov test," to use Russian officials' slang.

Семён Слепаков: Песня про нефть

Авторы текста Семен Слепаков и Джавид КурбановЯ простой рабочий на тракторном заводе,Фамилия Синицын, звать меня Володя,Каждый день с утра иду на завод,И дли...

www.youtube.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

4 years

Chinese propaganda in Russia is activated right before today's trilateral 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇮🇳 foreign ministers' videoconference, as Beijing quite awkwardly tries to influence the Russian expert community and convince Moscow that sale of new fighter jets to India is a bad idea. 🤦‍♂️

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

6/ Since 2014 various "sanctions task forces" in the 🇷🇺 government (first led by Igor Shuvalov, then by Anton Siluanov & Andrey Belousov) claimed that they have looked into all possible sanctions scenarios, including Iran & North Korea, and did contingency planning accordingly.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

Moscow Ostankino TV-tower right now, @kommersant reports. “China, Russia is with you!” (中国，俄罗斯与你同在!). Hardly can happen without an official approval. Context needs no explanation. @SpeakerPelosi

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

5 months

It finally happened! 🇨🇳🇷🇺 trade has surpassed $200b mark. Trade figures might be different in years to come, but the trendline is clear: as a result of Putin's war against 🇺🇦, Moscow and Beijing find themselves in a deepening asymmetrical economic interdependence. Short 🧵

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

🇨🇳🇷🇺🧵 There’s a perception that Xi Jinping’s state visit to Moscow was little more than a show of public support for Putin, since no major new agreements were announced. That perception is wrong, I argue in my latest piece for @ForeignAffairs . 1/16

What’s Really Going on Between Russia and China

Behind the scenes, they are deepening their defense partnership.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

🇨🇳🇷🇺🧵 After 300+ days of Russia's horrific war against Ukraine, where does China-Russia relationship stand? This week's events and some recent data tell a story of deepening ties and (surprise, surprise!) a rapidly growing asymmetry favoring Beijing. Let's take a closer look. 1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

9 months

New mobilization law is part of a wider effort to maximize Russia’s firepower and blunt western support for Kyiv. Far from seeking an off-ramp from his disastrous war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is preparing for an even bigger war, I argue in the @FT .

Putin is looking for a bigger war, not an off-ramp, in Ukraine

New mobilisation law is part of a wider effort to maximise Russia’s firepower and blunt western support for Kyiv

www.ft.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Bottom line: it's clear why Beijing wants to portray itself distancing from Moscow, and why 🇨🇳 officials are ready to talk about it. Facts and figures, however, don't suggest there is any real U-turn of Chinese policy towards Russia. Штош. 29/END

Xi Jinping’s plan to reset China’s economy and win back friends

Amid a chaotic exit from Covid lockdowns, China is looking to reduce its international isolation and boost its growth rate

www.ft.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

🚢🫓🧵 Putin's decision to pull the plug on the grain deal has predictably backfired. His U-turn shows how a disastrous foreign policy has given tremendous leverage to few remaining partners of 🇷🇺. But using it to stop the war or force the Kremlin to deescalate will be very hard.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

6 years

Root cause of largest intelligence failure in modern Russian history is a combination of wrecked values system in parts of the Russian society deeply rooted in Soviet past, notorious incompetence and, well, banal corruption. END or FINISH as we say in Russia

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

5 months

As I argue in my latest piece for @WSJ , in Russia, the war against Ukraine is now the organizing principle around which most decisions are made, and at the core of Russia’s domestic, economic and foreign policy. Short summary in a 🧵

In Russia, All Policy Roads Lead to the War

Over the past year, the invasion of Ukraine is at the core of Russia’s domestic, economic and foreign policy.

www.wsj.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

This excellent piece in @FT by @JKynge , @sunyu1117 , Liu Xinning, @HenryJFoy , @rwmcmorrow is well worth your time. Bottom line: after securing his third term, Xi does a course correction on foreign policy and tries to win back friends in Europe. 2/

Xi Jinping’s plan to reset China’s economy and win back friends

Amid a chaotic exit from Covid lockdowns, China is looking to reduce its international isolation and boost its growth rate

www.ft.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

4/ Why is Moscow disrupting the grain deal now? The answer is: Putin needs leverage as things go south for him on the battle fields in Ukraine, so the threat of global food crisis needs to be put back in the Russian toolbox of coercion and blackmail.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

13/ I expect that 🇨🇳 will not pledge to stop military cooperation with 🇷🇺, as this cooperation is valuable for Beijing (and may become even more so with a weakened Moscow as a result of this war). But for now China is unlikely to rush into new export deals with Russia.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

6 years

But why would #GRU super spy register his private car using address of his secretive employer? Well, this gives you bonuses - you are put on a special list so the traffic police can't stop, the fines for drunk driving etc. never apply to you, and you don't need to pay car tax 5/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

3 years

THREAD Today's agreement may turn another bloody page in the tragedy that is Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Setting emotions aside, here are couple of quick points on Russian calculus and handling of the issue - and some possible implications for 🇷🇺 standing in the Caucasus.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

People can be forgiven for assuming that the Kremlin’s policy is informed by a dispassionate strategy derived from endless hours of interagency debate. What actually drives the Kremlin are the tough ideas and interests of a small group of men around Putin.

Alexander Gabuev writes from Moscow on why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

Elites have hijacked Russia and conflated the country's interests with their own

www.economist.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

THREAD Is Russia becoming a giant Iran of Eurasia? A few thoughts from my conversation with @gideonrachman about 🇷🇺 future and its relationship with China for The Rachman Review podcast @FT

Russia’s future: a giant Iran of Eurasia

The country looks destined to come increasingly under the sway of China

www.ft.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

5 years

THREAD: Today @AbeShinzo is coming to Moscow seeking solution to a territorial dispute with Russia over Kurili islands. But expect no miracles. Putin is unlikely to move an inch, and the main reason why he's playing with Abe is desire to wreck US-Japan alliance. Here is why 👇1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

11 months

Fresh Chinese customs data for 5 months of 2023 is out today. Sinification of Russia's economy is on steroids... again. 🇨🇳🇷🇺 trade in Jan-May +40.7% ($93.8b) 🇷🇺 exports to 🇨🇳 +20.4% ($50.85b) 🇷🇺 imports from 🇨🇳 +75.6% ($42.95) ❗️❗️❗️ Source:

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

THREAD What will be the impact of war in Ukraine on China-Russia relationship? The Kremlin’s growing dependence on 🇨🇳 will turn 🇷🇺 into a tremendous asset in Beijing’s competition with 🇺🇸, I argue in my latest piece for @foreignaffairs .

China’s New Vassal

The war in Ukraine turned Moscow into Beijing’s junior partner.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

As for view in Beijing that Moscow will emerge from this war weakened, truth is that a weakened 🇷🇺 will be dependent on 🇨🇳, and it will be an asset in Beijing's quest for regional and global power. Look for some nuance in this @ForeignAffairs piece 19/

China’s New Vassal

The war in Ukraine turned Moscow into Beijing’s junior partner.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

This attitude builds on a degree of disrespect towards Russia that's common among some members of 🇨🇳 elite ("🇷🇺 was USSR 苏联大哥, but now it's a third world country with nukes run by crooks"). But to think that this attitude dictates Beijing's policy towards 🇷🇺 is a mistake. 11/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

This includes efforts to distance China from Russia (or at least tell the West that Beijing is doing so), because 🇨🇳 leadership sees that China's reluctance to criticize the Kremlin and join Western sanctions is viewed in Europe as tacit support for Putin's brutal war effort. 3/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

9 months

🧵 Does participation of Li Hui 🇨🇳 envoy on 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war, in Saudi-hosted peace consultations over the weekend mean that Beijing is about to abandon its tacit support for the Kremlin, as some people want to believe? Let's take a look. (Spoiler alert: hardly). 1/20

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Xi Jinping's call with @ZelenskyyUa , as reported by @KeithZhai in @WSJ , is a must-do pillar in 🇨🇳 framing of Xi's visit to Moscow. Make no mistake: the trip will be about deepening ties to 🇷🇺 that benefit Beijing, not about any real peace brokering. 1/

WSJ News Exclusive | China’s Xi Plans to Speak With Zelensky for First Time Since Ukraine War Broke...

A conversation between the two men would likely follow the Chinese leader’s meeting with Russia’s Putin next week.

www.wsj.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

4) Finally, "🇨🇳 now perceives a likelihood that 🇷🇺 will fail to prevail against 🇺🇦 and emerge from the conflict a “minor power”, much diminished economically and diplomatically on the world stage." Thus 🇪🇺 should think that China will prioritize ties with EU over ties with 🇷🇺 8/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

👹💣💥 New shots in Russia's energy war with the West have just been fired. @Gazprom has announced cuts of gas flows to Europe through Nord Stream pipeline by 40%, and it blames @Siemens & 🇪🇺 sanctions. Colleagues at @CarnegieRussia saw it coming, and it might get even worse. 1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 months

“With no checks on his capacity to make fatal mistakes, an ageing Russian ruler surrounded by sycophants may embark on more reckless moves in coming years than anything we’ve seen so far.” My latest in the @FT , on the back of a sobering @MunSecConf .

Nato has no choice but to strengthen its bulwarks against Putin

[FREE TO READ] An ageing Russian ruler surrounded by sycophants may embark on even more reckless moves in coming years

www.ft.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

12/ Today's deal is a good news, it deserves praise, and we can only hope that it holds. However, the disastrous second-order and and third-order effects of this tragic war are only starting to become more evident, so there are many more dark pages in front of us.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

6 years

For the first time in history Chinese troops will participate in Vostok-2018, the largest miltary drills Moscow held since Zapad-81 that brought together troops from USSR and Warsaw Pact countries. This is a milestone for Sino-Russian military ties, and it's very important 1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

THREAD 1/ Why is war in Ukraine rather an opportunity for China, despite all the risks and challenges? My quick thoughts based on the recent episode of @littleredpods .

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Chinese sources of @FT are right when they say Putin didn't tell Xi anything, and China was not aware of the invasion. Well. He didn't tell his PM and governor of the Central Bank. Why would he tell a foreign leader? "Partnership without limits" are just words... 12/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

We're 10 days into publication of 🇨🇳 position on 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war, sometimes mistakenly dubbed as a "peace plan." As a result, peace is not an inch closer, but the global reaction to the document serves Beijing's main goal. Brief thoughts based on my recent piece for @CEIP_Politika 🧵

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

"Several 🇨🇳 officials in private conversations with the @FT strove to put clear daylight between Beijing and Moscow on the issue of 🇺🇦 — a message that has been repeated to some 🇪🇺 diplomats." “Putin is crazy,” says one 🇨🇳 official, who declined to be identified. 4/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

5/ Moscow's U-turn on the grain issue is to a large extent a reaction to the asks key MENA partners, particularly Turkey that now serves as the major formal and informal channel to connect sanctioned Russia to the outside world, including diplomacy, trade, money, and even yachts.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

3/ This tactics has alarmed Russia's partners in MENA, including such diverse players as Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran, among others who would have been hit economically and politically if flows of 🇺🇦 grain + 🇷🇺 grain&fertilizers would be significantly curtailed.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

5 months

My colleague @AndrKolesnikov and @levada_ru 's Denis Volkov have published a new @CarnegieEndow paper documenting Russian attitudes towards the war. Main conclusion: support for the Kremlin's disastrous course is undiminished. Key findings in a🧵1/

Alternate Reality: How Russian Society Learned to Stop Worrying About the War

Many Russians equate their country with the political regime that rules it, and believe it is their duty to support the state’s actions. This belief and the limited impact the war in Ukraine has had...

carnegieendowment.org

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

4/ We lack many important facts at this point, but, given remarkable accuracy of USG intelligence throughout this crisis, it's likely that reports of talks on Chinese military sales to Russia are true. The devil, however, is in the details.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

4/ Needless to say, Putin's and the Kremlin's relationship with truth is...well...complicated, to put it mildly, as my @CarnegieEndow colleague @ChristopherJBor documents in this excellent piece.

Why The Kremlin Lies: Understanding Its Loose Relationship With the Truth

Russian leaders have used deception for strategic ends in ways that shed light on their geopolitical goals

carnegieendowment.org

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

10/ First problem with this approach is that it's not working. The Western resolve to help Ukraine to defend itself is not going away - at least for now. Second problem is that killing of grain deal will create rifts between Russia and powerful players like Turkey & Saudi Arabia

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Other 🇨🇳 talking points on Russia policy include: 1) Putin didn't tell Xi about his plans to invade 🇺🇦 during 2/4 summit in Beijing, and thus an idea still so popular in the West that Putin must have told Xi something because of "no limits partnership" is wrong. 5/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

2) Demotion of vice-minister Le Yucheng 乐玉成, @MFA_China 's top 🇷🇺 expert, happened because he was held responsible for the intelligence failure on 🇷🇺 invasion. In 2023 he was a likely successor to Wang Yi as head of MFA, but the job went to 🇨🇳ambo in 🇺🇸 @AmbQinGang instead. 6/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

And then... "After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling 🇷🇺 that 🇺🇸 was trying to sow discord." Not sure this could have happened without a nod from Xi or at least Yang Jiechi. 16/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

This gives 🇨🇳 a slight opening to drive a wedge between 🇺🇸 and 🇪🇺, capitalizing on other disputes between them, and delay cementation of anti-China tech coalition led by the U.S. thus buying Beijing the precious time of having access to European tech&money&markets 25/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Russia's economic and tech dependency on China is growing day by day, and so is 🇨🇳 leverage. @JKynge and I have talked about it back in March, just 30 days into this ugly war, and unfortunately, major takeaways from this conversation remain relevant. 20/

China, Russia and the war in Ukraine

The FT's global China editor James Kynge talks to Alexander Gabuev from the Carnegie Moscow Center about China's 'no-limits' friendship with Russia, the relationship between Vladimir Putin and Xi...

www.ft.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

3) China is willing to use the closeness of its relationship with Moscow to restrain Putin from resorting to the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and readouts of Xi's meetings with @Bundeskanzler , @POTUS , @EmmanuelMacron attest to that (in 🇩🇪,🇺🇸,🇫🇷 versions though, not 🇨🇳) 7/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

As for 🇨🇳 claims that Beijing works behind the scenes to convince Putin to seek peaceful resolution or at least not use nukes in 🇺🇦 if he feels that he is losing the war and it might be the end of his regime and him... we don't have any evidence that China actually does it. 17/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

A reminder: for quite some time before the war Team Biden tried to work with 🇨🇳 through @AmbQinGang , as @ewong reported in @nytimes , sharing intel about upcoming 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 ( @CIA was super protective of sources&methods for obvious reasons) /15

U.S. Officials Repeatedly Urged China to Help Avert War in Ukraine (Published 2022)

Americans presented Chinese officials with intelligence on Russia’s troop buildup in hopes that President Xi Jinping would step in, but were repeatedly rebuffed.

www.nytimes.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

The "Putin is crazy" quote shouldn't shock as it reflects a pretty widespread attitude towards Putin's impulsiveness and emotionality among many 🇨🇳 officials including people working on 🇷🇺 in MFA, MSS, NDRC, MofCom, expert community at least since 2014 annexation of Crimea 10/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

... that some observers and officials in the West have taken much more serious than the Chinese and the Russians, who are pretty cynical about those pompous phrases. The most significant proof that 🇨🇳 was not aware of 🇷🇺 plans was failure to evacuate 🇨🇳citizens before the war 13/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Let's look at the merit and novelty of these 🇨🇳 talking points before trying to unpack what China's actual policy towards Russia is now, nearly a year into horrors of this war, and why Chinese diplomats want to spin it the way they do in talking to 🇪🇺 audiences. 9/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

In fact, Beijing's strategy on Russia was pretty consistent long before 2/24. It's about deepening engagement on China's terms while managing Western red lines carefully. My colleague @EvanFeigenbaum got it explained on the day the war started. 22/

China Faces Irreconcilable Choices on Ukraine

Beijing’s strategy has been more supple in the past, so its evolution suggests that it has dramatically leaned toward Moscow.

carnegieendowment.org

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

On the record, even in readouts of Western leaders' meetings with Xi, the Chinese leader doesn't go beyond banalities like "sky is blue, peace is better than war, nuclear weapons are terrifying and shouldn't be used." Neither do other Chinese officials. 18/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

For the quantitative metrics of 🇨🇳🇷🇺, we see an across-the-board growth in 2022: more trade, more military exercises, more deals in RMB etc. I've summed it up in this thread. There is nothing to suggest that China changes course on Russia. 21/

Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

🇨🇳🇷🇺🧵 After 300+ days of Russia's horrific war against Ukraine, where does China-Russia relationship stand? This week's events and some recent data tell a story of deepening ties and (surprise, surprise!) a rapidly growing asymmetry favoring Beijing. Let's take a closer look. 1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

China knows that its problems with the West are not rooted in Xi's bromance with Putin, but in issues like 🇨🇳🇺🇸 rivalry, Taiwan, tech etc. Even if Xi drops Putin under the bus, ties with the U.S. will not structurally improve absent China's fundamental change to 🇺🇸 liking 23/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

2/ Blockade of Ukrainian grain exports served two purposes: 1) Strangling of 🇺🇦 economy, denying Kyiv an important source of cash flow; 2) Putting more pressure on the West through engineering a crisis (refugee flow from MENA etc.) and then putting the blame on 🇺🇸🇪🇺 sanctions.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Putin says that 🇷🇺 is ready to use 🇨🇳 yuan in trade with Asia, Africa, Latin America. Just a year ago the Kremlin wanted to use ruble for that purpose 🤷🏻‍♂️ Russia’s trade and financial system undergoes a swift yuanisation. More in this piece for @opinion 👇🏻

The Yuan Is an Unlikely Winner From Russia’s Growing Isolation

The Chinese currency is expanding its reach and is now seen as an antidote to what many view as Washington’s weaponization of the global financial system.

www.bloomberg.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

3/ Of course, there is no credible information about such units in 🇺🇦. Putin knows the practice from 🇷🇺 history, with Stalin's July 1942 decree №227 being the most famous example. So was Putin consciously lying? We can't know for sure, but it might be that he believes it.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

In order to create additional reasons for 🇪🇺 leaders to go to China and strike deals there, Beijing is using the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 card. It wants to create an impression that with a little bit of accommodation of 🇨🇳 by Europe, China is actually willing to do more to restrain Putin. 26/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

5/ This @JohnFollain , @jendeben & @JenniferJJacobs story in @business provides important nuance. 🇨🇳🇷🇺 exchange took place shortly after the invasion. It wasn't a desperate cry for military help after the war started to look long and costly for Putin.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Despite Russia's war against Ukraine and ensuing sanctions, 🇨🇳🇷🇺 trade has added 29.3% in 2022. These numbers may go up or down in 2023 and years ahead, but one thing is clear: Moscow's economic and tech dependency on Beijing is rapidly growing, to China's advantage. A short 🧵

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

As for Le Yucheng's demotion, it looks like an attempt to put blame on someone who was hardly in charge given his rank and MFA's low role in managing the relationship with and intelligence on Russia. 🇨🇳 system simply got Putin wrong - like many other governments, by the way 14/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

6/ Key question is: was the disclosed exchange Moscow's first approach to Beijing related to immediate war needs in Ukraine? Or is it rather an episode in an ongoing 🇷🇺🇨🇳 arms trade negotiation? Later seems much more plausible to me at this point.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

11/ As Vasily Kashin, Russia's best analyst on 🇨🇳 military, notes to @ru_rbc , even if the deal is sealed today, hardware would take months to deliver. It would require lengthy training, technical adaptation to 🇷🇺 platforms, integration into combat etc.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

12/ At this point, 🇺🇸 disclosures seem plausible, but they are incomplete and need to be put in proper context. Media framing of the story suggests an USG attempt to rally allies and put additional pressure on China in order to distance itself from Russia.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

4/ Signals that the food crisis might have significant consequences for the whole region, and that instability can hit Russia too, have been part of Moscow's communication with regional capitals - both announced (Lavrov's trip, Putin's phone calls etc.) and unannounced.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

6/ Turkey's pragmatic and transactional approach of has positioned Ankara well to be the powerful broker, and the Kremlin is also happy to help @RTErdogan to score points and earn money since Turkey will be one of the hubs to process grain from Russia and Ukraine.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Russian newspaper @kommersant reports on 🇺🇸🇷🇺 secret talks in Ankara. According to Kommersant, Moscow is represented by SVR director Sergey Naryshkin. His usual U.S. counterpart is @CIA director William Burns.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

However, 🇪🇺 is somewhat different. Having survived crash course in decoupling from 🇷🇺, major EU economies don't want to go that road with China, at least for now. Amid fears of recession in eurozone, 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹 leaders rush to Beijing to secure market access, new deals etc. 24/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

Potential cracks in 🇷🇺 elite? The Kremlin has a remedy! "Russia’s security services are confiscating the passports of senior officials & SOE executives to prevent overseas travel, as paranoia over leaks and defections spreads, @maxseddon reports in @FT .

Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

Kremlin tightens Soviet-era travel restrictions in ‘sensitive’ areas

www.ft.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

10 months

🇨🇳🇷🇺🧵 Sinification of Russia's economy goes into overdrive, according to the newest Chinese customs data for 6 months of 2023. Trade in Jan-Jun +40.6% ($114.55b) 🇷🇺 exports to 🇨🇳 +19.4% ($62.26b) 🇷🇺 imports from 🇨🇳 +78.1% ($52.28b) ❗️❗️❗️ Source: 1/

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

12/ There is a risk of overestimating Putin's rationality and neglecting his growing detachment from reality when trying to redraw Moscow's red lines. So far the West managed to do it in a firm, but careful manner avoiding doomsday scenarios. END

Putin’s Doomsday Scenario

The West cannot assume that the Russian leader will be a rational actor on nukes if he sees his nation and regime under existential threat.

www.theatlantic.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

5/ Back in July, the Kremlin though that thigs are going according to the plan, and time is on Moscow's side. There was an amalgam of powerful 🇷🇺 insiders interested in making💲 on the deal, as Alexandra Prokopenko @amenka documents in @CEIP_Politika :

What’s in the Ukraine Grain Deal for Russia?

The easing in sanctions that Moscow obtained as an informal part of the Ukraine grain deal will enable it to address some critical vulnerabilities in Russia’s own food security, as well as to take...

carnegieendowment.org

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

1 year

And it seems to be working! @Bundeskanzler went to China in November, declining @EmmanuelMacron 's idea to go together in order to speak in one 🇪🇺 voice. Berlin then framed the trip as effort to bring China on board addressing 🇷🇺 aggression against 🇺🇦. 27/

Germany's Scholz tests China ties with inaugural visit, to discuss Ukraine

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrives in China on a one-day trip on Friday, becoming the first G7 leader to visit since the start of COVID-19 and President Xi Jinping solidifying his grip on power...

www.reuters.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

2 years

9/ The goal of the intimidation campaign is to put pressure on the international community and the West in order to limit military support to Ukraine, or force Kyiv into a deal accommodating some Russian demands - and giving Moscow time to rebuild its force and come back.

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Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士

@AlexGabuev

4 years

2/ Spotted by @Igor_Denisov . Official @PDChina 's account has posted this message in a Facebook group of 2,000+ 🇷🇺 Asia-watchers. "If Russia wants to soften the hearts of Indians & Chinese, it's better not to sell weapons to 🇮🇳 at this delicate moment" #subtle

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