In a tour de force of hard won reporting, the New York Times has put numerical clothing on what we’ve known about President Trump for years:
He’s a haphazard businessman, human billboard and serial bankruptcy artist
Global supply chains are breaking, borders rising within nation-states, stock exchanges are convulsing with fear, and recession looms over the global economy.
The coronavirus has disrupted world order
Let’s take a break from worrying about the apocalypse and celebrate some good news:
👴🏾We're living longer
🍊We're healthier
👧🏼Child mortality is down
💵Poverty is decreasing
📖Literacy is increasing
🔫We're killing each other less
The strategies pursued by South Korea, Vietnam & China are paying off. As of Nov. 1, the cumulative death rate per million is:
🇺🇸U.S.: 696
🇬🇧U.K.: 685
🇫🇷France: 563
vs.
🇰🇷South Korea: 9
🇨🇳China: 3
🇻🇳Vietnam: 0.36
[Chart shows data correct as of Oct. 30]
The most misleading cliche about the coronavirus is that it treats us all the same. It doesn’t.
It exacerbates preexisting conditions of inequality wherever it goes, and before long, uprisings will be one of the side effects
People who deactivated Facebook in a study were happier afterward, reporting higher levels of life satisfaction and lower levels of depression and anxiety.
That change is equal to about 25-40% of the beneficial effect typically reported for psychotherapy
This alarming chart illustrates the poor job the U.S. has done in containing Covid-19 compared to the European Union, a bigger region of independent countries that suffered an earlier outbreak.
What is America doing wrong?
Ebola has a 50% death rate. If you got infected, you’d most likely die.
Covid-19 has a 3.4% death rate. Obviously not as bad as Ebola—but that makes it up to 34x more deadly than the seasonal flu
People who deactivated Facebook in a study were happier afterward, reporting higher levels of life satisfaction and lower levels of depression and anxiety.
That change is equal to about 25-40% of the beneficial effect typically reported for psychotherapy
Estimates of the virus’s reproduction rate suggest that it’s risen back to around or above 1 in the following countries:
🇬🇧The U.K.
🇫🇷France
🇮🇹Italy
🇪🇸Spain
🇧🇪Belgium
That means one infected person will on average spread it to more than one other person
Elon Musk’s endorsement of Dogecoin as “the people’s crypto” — cheered by Gene Simmons and Snoop Dogg — sent Reddit traders stampeding into the Shiba Inu-themed coin.
As a result, its price is up around 1,000% year-to-date, eclipsing Bitcoin’s rise
It’s easy to feel as if there’s no light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel:
📈ICUs are filling up
🔒Fresh lockdowns
💉Herd immunity a long way off
Yet we shouldn’t ignore the better news from Asia
🇺🇸📈A failure to ramp up testing let the virus spread far and wide in the U.S.
Instead of coordinating a coherent national response, President Trump has downplayed the threat of the infection and left decisions to insufficiently supported states
In the latest wave of coronavirus infections, young people have been blamed for spreading the virus by partying too much and breaking social distancing rules.
But that's not entirely fair
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has imposed a lockdown unlike anything in the U.S.
As of Friday, the nation of 4.8 million people had 1,456 confirmed cases and only 17 deaths
After five states passed ballot measures for marijuana use last week, the drug will soon be legal in some form for 70% of the U.S. population.
A third of the country won’t even need a medical excuse
Oat milk is going public. Sweden’s Oatly is reportedly considering an IPO at a valuation of as much as $5 billion. Investors include:
✨Oprah Winfrey
✨Jay-Z
✨Natalie Portman
Is this the end of semi-skimmed milk?
Inflation stings most if you earn less than $300K. Here's how to deal:
➡️ Take the bus
➡️ Don’t buy in bulk
➡️ Try lentils instead of meat
➡️ Nobody said this would be fun
These are the places Covid-19 spreads in the real world:
🖥Workplaces
🍽Restaurants
⛪️Churches
🎈Parties
It doesn't really spread here:
🌳Public parks
🏖Beaches
🛒Quick trips to the grocery store
If Covid-19 is a test of government effectiveness, then the world’s most powerful country has failed spectacularly.
180,000 Americans have died from Covid-19 — more than double the number who perished in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq combined
From 🇪🇸Spain to the🇬🇧U.K. to the 🇺🇸U.S., the coronavirus epidemic has exposed poor leadership and governance worldwide.
But there’s one noticeable and surprising exception: 🇬🇷Greece
The U.S.’s decline started with little things that people got used to:
🚧Empty construction sites
🛣️Roads and buildings that took forever to finish
🚑Unpredictable and enormous hospital bills
🏡6% real-estate commissions
Imagine a condition so bad for your health, it:
🚬Reduces your life expectancy as much as smoking 15 cigarettes a day
🧠Carries an increased risk of dementia and heart disease
🩺Causes your wounds to heal more slowly
There is one: loneliness
Good news: The supply-chain crunch appears to have already peaked in the U.S.
Evidence keeps piling up to suggest that the U.S. is slowly but surely making progress in easing freight congestion and supply shortages
Almost exactly a century ago, every aspect of the world was altered: from the arts & philosophy to sciences & economics.
Two World Wars & the Great Depression generated new inequalities & fueled the rise of both left and far-right political movements
America needs to embrace the high-speed rail.
Trains running 200 miles an hour can connect people to jobs as much as 100 miles away from where they live🚆
When it comes to criticising the pandemic, pundits always single out Florida. Or Texas. Or Arizona. Or all three.
But what about California? As of July 7, the state was second only to New York with 277,000 positive cases
In August and September, more than a million people dropped out of the workforce. 80% of them were women.
When women give up their careers, the choice is almost never truly a free one
Everything about SARS-CoV-2 seems unfair. It:
➡️Burdens the poor more than the rich
➡️Afflicts Blacks more than Whites
One likely effect is to make several developed countries swerve left politically, toward some bowdlerized form of “socialism"
Covid-19 put the most Michiganders out of work since the Great Depression.
Today, Governor Gretchen Whitmer presides over an economy that improved the most in its history since the pandemic began two years ago
🔎 The coronavirus puts a magnifying glass on inequality wherever it is.
While the wealthy can work safely from home, countless other Americans don’t have that option: The less money you make, the less likely you are to be able to work remotely
The key to avoiding more lockdowns is finding a way to “live with the virus” through:
💉Widespread testing
📞Tracing of contacts
😷Isolating positive cases
Western countries have made structural, not cultural errors here
At the start of the pandemic, headlines signaled the end of days for the Golden State: “California doom: Staggering $54 billion deficit looms,” the AP declared.
Yet that's not what the data shows. California’s economy is the opposite of doom
It’s really the folks in their 20s and 30s, the generation between X and Z, we should spare a thought for: the Millennials.
Boy, do they keep getting shafted
On the surface, tweets about
#FloridaMorons
and viral photos of packed beaches paint a bad picture.
But when looking at the data, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s approach to this virus has been surprisingly sensible
Last month, 16 “artificial rain enhancement rockets” were launched off the back of a pickup truck 300 miles south of Beijing.
The operation, ordered up by the Juye County Meteorological Bureau in response to a local drought, was reportedly a success
College has the ability to:
📚Provide opportunity to all regardless of race or class
💰Boost the economy’s productive capacity
✍️Make people better citizens
On all these counts, the U.S.’s system of postsecondary education is falling short
In Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation, a bloody civil war is now in its 16th month.
The fighting between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s forces and the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front seems at a standstill
It's conventional wisdom that the U.S. economy is built on Americans' endless appetite to buy lots of stuff.
Household consumption makes up 67% of GDP. When the economy falters, we're told spending is our patriotic duty. But it doesn't have to be this way
Thanks to Trump's tax cut, companies in the S&P 500 are set to save a total of $2 trillion in taxes over 10 years.
Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that the promised economic boost isn’t materializing for everyone else
Social unrest was already increasing around the world before the virus began its journey:
From 🇫🇷France to 🇸🇩Sudan, 🇭🇰Hong Kong to 🇧🇴Bolivia, there’s been about 100 large anti-government protests since 2017. About 20 of these toppled leaders
Mexico, India and Pakistan. Texas, Florida and California.
These places have seen record numbers of new cases as lockdown restrictions were eased. Should that mean a return to harsh lockdowns?
But
@TimOBrien
wants us to focus on what the tax returns reveal about Trump as president. Because of his:
✅Indebtedness
✅Reliance on overseas income
✅Refusal to distance himself from his business
Trump represents a profound national security threat
"The Trump Foundation raised more than $2.8 million that it used for the 2016 election," writes
@TimOBrien
.
Trump was not solely at fault for the wrongdoing. The foundation’s directors — Donald Jr., Ivanka and Eric all breached their fiduciary duties.
Millennials are cooler than their predecessors😎
🌡No, literally. Millennials in the U.S. today have an average body temperature 1.06ºF cooler than Americans did in the 1800s, if they’re male, and 0.58ºF cooler if they’re female
Nearly 19% more Americans died in 2020 than in 2019, according to the
@CDCgov
.
This is the biggest such increase since 1918, when deaths rose 30%.
Deadly pandemics will do that
Of the coronavirus’s many side effects, perhaps the least appreciated are psychological.
The pandemic is causing an epidemic of anxiety and depression, especially among young people
On a full 2-hour flight, one scientist has estimated that about 1 in 4300 passengers will pick up Covid-19, on average.
If airlines leave the middle seat empty, only about 1 in 7700 will catch it
🇺🇸New York, California and Illinois have been hemorrhaging residents.
Almost 3.2 million more people left those states for elsewhere in the U.S. than arrived from other states from 2010 through 2019. Where are all these people going?
The coronavirus pandemic won’t end with a made-for-TV big bang. It’ll be managed patiently into remission, over a long time with sobriety, incrementalism and nuance.
That’s something Angela Merkel’s Germany will excel at
In a 44,000-person clinical trial, Pfizer’s vaccine candidate prevented over 90% of Covid-19 cases so far.
It's fantastic news and a historic scientific accomplishment
60% of young adults say they're open to other job opportunities, and 55% say they don't feel engaged at work.
When educated millennials talk about being fed up with their careers, policy makers ought to listen
How has America's college system fallen into disrepair?
For one, it's become too expensive. The price of a college education has outpaced both incomes and federal grants
The perception of an Asian advantage often falls prey to essentialist thinking: that the East is doing things the West could never do, thanks to profound differences in values, politics and culture, writes
@LionelRALaurent
.
That’s not necessarily the case
These earth shattering events pitted the working class against established ruling elites. In our own conjuncture, all ingredients of the previous calamity are present, on an unparalleled scale
Now that Trump has tested positive for Covid-19 and is staying at Walter Reed, the DOJ is almost certainly focusing on the 25th Amendment, which provides for the transfer of presidential authority to the vice president
States expanded economic activity while cases were at an elevated plateau with lots of ongoing transmissions.
In contrast, Europe mostly waited to reopen until it crushed the curve or reached its far slope, with dramatic reductions in the viral spread
Here’s the lowdown if you haven’t heard:
⚡️VW’s U.S. arm claimed it was changing its corporate name to “Voltswagen”
⚡️Denied it was an April Fools’ Day joke
⚡️Then admitted that it actually was an April Fools gone wrong
It wasn't even April 1st yet
Restaurants and bars are replacing their plastic straws with reusable metal variants.
But there's a hitch: customers keep taking the metal straws home with them
Students only learn when they are focused.
Yet surveys have long shown that teenagers spend most of their day bored, zoned out and only pretending to listen
If the price of Bitcoin were to reach $200,000, half of the world’s billionaires would be crypto billionaires.
This crypto wealth has vast potential to reshape philanthropy
America is riddled with:
💰 corruption
🏗️ inefficient bidding
🏡 high land-acquisition costs
👷🏻♂️ overstaffing
🚧 regulatory barriers
🙅🏽♀️ poor maintenance
All of these inefficiencies add up to a country that has forgotten how to build
Covid couldn’t have come at a worse time for Gen Z. They’re either:
📃In the crucial exam years of their education
💼Taking those first steps into the working world
Either way, they appear to be stuffed
Greece imposed severe social distancing measures at a much earlier stage of its epidemic than other southern European countries.
For now, this swift reaction has helped Greece avoid the tragic health care crisis that richer states are facing
Rising real-estate prices are stoking fears that the American dream of homeownership is slipping out of reach for low- and moderate-income Americans.
That may be so — but a nation of renters is not something to fear
Generation Z are adrift by definition, living in ways that heighten their risk of infection:
🏢Many live in shared accommodation or densely-populated dorms
🍺More likely to work in public-facing roles such as waiters and bar staff
World leaders are beginning to loosen Covid-19 restrictions well before an effective vaccine or treatment for the disease is available.
This means secondary outbreaks are a near certainty
It’s been 75 years since Hiroshima and Nagasaki were incinerated, and 50 years since the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty took effect.
Yet the world is today in greater danger of nuclear war than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis
Following pandemic news too closely can be an emotional roller coaster, with dire public health warnings immediately followed by hopeful new studies.
Here’s a hopeful new study: Vaccines sharply cut all Covid-19 infections — not just symptoms
Infamous Baby Boomers are now in their late 50s, 60s or early 70s. Some of them have just begun to enter retirement with generous pensions.
They’ve been politically in control for so long, they’ve molded entire welfare and tax systems to their advantage
There’𝘀 been a ton of innovation in onlin𝗲 escape rooms over the last year.
Now, we’re joining in the fun, too! Your mission — should you choose to ac𝗰ept it — is t𝗼 escape this Twitter thread
So what's to be done? Economics offers a straightforward answer: instead of banning plastics, the right strategy is to tax them.
A 7 cent tax on all grocery bags in Chicago was associated with a 42% drop in usage
Trump and his patchwork of businesses are saddled with more than $1 billion in debt. Come January, he's going to be in some deep, deep financial trouble
We have a new weapon in the fight against the coronavirus, thanks to a group of enterprising researchers at the
@czbiohub
.
It’s cheap, sophisticated and shockingly precise
Compare that with Asia:
➡️South Korea tested early, and often
➡️In Wuhan, 11 million people were tested over 2 weeks
➡️The positive-test rate in South Korea and Vietnam is below 1%, compared to 10% in France and Spain
If you’re a smoker who wants to indulge your habit while gazing over the mountains of the South Pacific, you’d do well to move fast.
New Zealand announced plans to become the first nation in the world to ban tobacco
Not only are metal straws expensive to replace, they're also not providing their intended environmental benefit.
The metal variants require mining, plus large amounts of energy to convert into sheet metal and then fashion it into a cylindrical tube
How much more calamity can East Africa take?
Already struggling the coronavirus pandemic and a Biblical scourge of locusts, the region is now being inundated with floods
When all is said and done in 2020, African economies will have outperformed the rest of the world during the coronavirus pandemic.
Africa's 54 countries now include seven of the globe's 10 fastest-growing economies
Before the pandemic, U.S. citizens were already:
💊Rationing medicine
💸Avoiding care due to financial stress
🖥️Using internet fundraisers to cover health costs
The virus will expose more Americans to that ugly reality
➡️Extensive testing rolled out too slowly & too late
➡️Not enough contact tracers
➡️Lack of enforcement and financial support to encourage self-isolation
These aren’t questions of philosophy but about implementation of policy
It's not Trump's shabby "brand" that kept him flush, it was real estate -- and he's about to get squeezed by Deutsche Bank and everybody else, says
@TimOBrien
.