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@crookedmedia
. Author of "The Chaos Machine," an NPR and New Yorker best book of 2022.
Thrilled by this: NYT call my new book, The Chaos Machine, an "authoritative and devastating account of the impacts of social media."
"Utterly convincing and should obliterate any doubts about the significance of algorithmic intervention in human affairs"
People really need to understand how mainstream it has become in some tech VC circles to argue that journalism itself is dangerous as an idea and should be abolished, and that it will be up to the tech world to carry this out.
Only 30% of Americans support overturning Roe, with 69% opposed, according to the most recent polling. Get used to it: everything we know about the trajectory of American democracy suggests that minoritarianism will become the norm.
Now live: Our monthslong project on YouTube radicalization.
As YouTube diverts more and more users down far-right rabbitholes, could its algorithm, in a way, radicalize an entire society?
To find out, we went to YouTube's 2nd-largest market: Brazil.
The erosion of abortion rights is extremely rare in the world, and almost exclusively occurs in backsliding democracies. Here’s my reporting on the link between those two forces:
One of the Blackwater contractors continued shooting civilians in the crowd even as his colleagues shouted over and over for ceasefire. One had to pull a gun on him to force him to stop. One of the people he shot was a mother clutching her infant.
A sign of how much US popular and journalistic attitudes have changed. I did this exact chart at Vox during the 2014 war and got screamed at for weeks. David Frum accused me of agitating for murder of Jews. Ted Cruz condemned. Now it’s on the NYT HP without a blip.
Afghans are starving not because of insufficient aid, but because the US forcibly emptied govt coffers, triggering a currency crisis and shutting down govt salaries and services. This move is a death sentence for untold numbers of civilians, including many kids and unborn babies.
Breaking News: President Biden is moving to split $7 billion in frozen Afghan central bank assets between 9/11 victims’ families and humanitarian aid in Afghanistan. The highly unusual set of moves is expected to be announced on Friday.
I really feel we have lost touch with how close we came in 2020 to authoritarianism enforced by nationwide, city-by-city state violence. The forces behind that effort remain widely influential in US politics and their return to power in 15 months is entirely plausible.
YouTube’s algorithm has been curating home movies of unwitting families into a catalog of semi-nude kids, we found.
YT often plays the videos after users watch softcore porn, building an audience of millions for what experts call child sexual exploitation
I’m not saying the outcome will be the same but this is almost word-for-word what went viral on FB in Myanmar and Sri Lanka just before the incitement turned to massive real-world violence. In both cases Facebook did nothing even as innocent people were dying.
South Korea and Italy had near-concurrent outbreaks that initially followed a parallel, terrifying trajectory.
Mere weeks later, as Italy reports 793 deaths in one day, Korea has two. Some days it has *zero*.
Me and Choe Sang-Hun report how they did it:
Whatever happens now, we may spend the rest of our lives dealing with the party-wide normalization of:
• Refusal to concede losses
• Refusal to transfer power
• Efforts to overturn election results
• Delegitimation of outparty governance
Very hard to unring this bell
Missouri GOP senators have passed a measure that uses gerrymandering to make it harder for liberals—but not conservatives—to amend MO's constitution.
How? It requires 57% statewide to pass or a simple majority both statewide & in 5 of 8 congressional districts—which the GOP drew
I once asked a political scientist whether there was a litmus test for democracy, and they said yes: the power of elections to remove incumbents. If that’s gone, it’s not a democracy. It’s just not.
This blew my mind: YouTube (and Google) divert users who search basic health terms to conspiracy videos that told them to fear vaccines & their doctors
Experts and fomer govt officials told us that "Dr. YouTube" is driving MULTIPLE public health crises, including Zika resurgence
I get why folks are being sort of arch about this, but just to be crystal clear: The president contracting coronavirus, going extended incommunicado, put on experimental treatments, and then airlifted to a military hospital are, taken together, a big deal.
Hamas no doubt has real support but it is also a violently suppressive group that rules Gaza by force. A lot of pro-occupation hardliners, as well as twitter lefty edgelords, want you to believe that “Hamas” and “the Palestinians” are synonymous, but they’re simply not.
Incredibly funny that as long as our garbage nation stands, its history books will reflect that the first-ever federal indictment of a president was announced via an unhinged social media rant about garage doors
It's hard to overstate how much of the disaster in Gaza is because Netanyahu backed himself into a corner with his far-right minority coalition in order to dodge corruption charges
My one consistent plea to fellow journalists covering US foreign policy is to treat the DC think tank circuit as part of why that foreign policy is the way it is, rather than as a source of objective commentary on it
In many respects,
#Afghanistan
represents the 1st real implementation of the "ending forever wars" doctrine.
The results so far?
- Crumbling of a democratic government;
-
#Taliban
rule;
-
#AlQaeda
ecstatic;
- Emergency mass evacuation;
- Unprecedented transatlantic divisions.
It comes out of a Valley utopianism has said since the 90s that all legacy institutions are ultimately barriers to progress, but that the enlightened minds of the tech world, guided by the pure science of engineering, will one day liberate us by smashing the old ways.
The US foreign policy establishment had a real opportunity this week to confront and learn from its 20-year failure in Afghanistan. Instead, just like in Iraq, it’s refused, blaming it all on poor execution. American empire can never fail, it can only be failed.
Always amazing to me how US conventional wisdom treats the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a narrow Hamas issue, as if the rockets went away then there would be no conflict. The occupation simply does not exist in a lot of the American conversation.
On a personal note, I found reporting this emotionally straining, far more so than I'd anticipated. Watching the videos made me physically ill and I've been having regular nightmares. I only mention it because I cannot fathom what this is like for parents whose kids are swept up.
We expected, at most, faint hints that YouTube helped inch far-right Jair Bolsonaro to the presidency.
Instead, Bolsonaro allies and far-right lawmakers all told us YT put them in power. Far-right activists gratefully credited YT's algorithm with their "political awakening."
I asked YouTube— why not just turn off recommendations on videos of kids? Your system can already identify videos of kids automatically.
The recommendation algorithm is driving this whole child exploitation phenomenon. Switching it off would solve the problem and keep kids safe.
We talked to child psychologists, sexual trauma specialists, psychologists who work with pedophiles, academic experts on pedophilia, network analysts. They all said YouTube has built a vast audience — maybe unprecedented — for child sexual exploitation, with grave risks for kids.
In the last two weeks, DOJ has announced the imminent departures of the solicitor general, the Civil Division chief, the Criminal Division chief, and the U.S. attorney for Manhattan.
Trump at Fox News town hall suggests China’s leaders deliberately allowed global travel so China would not suffer alone from virus. I agree. We’re talking here of a crime against humanity by CCP
The idea of rejecting institutions to build a purer society on the internet, in vogue in tech in the 90s, by the 2010s had become a mandate to abolish and remake those institutions in big tech's image
As I reported last year with
@kbennhold
, YouTube’s algorithm does something similar with politics. We found it directing large numbers of Germans news consumers toward far-right extremist videos, with real-world implications.
But the most shocking things we found went beyond politics. Everywhere we looked—and we looked so many places— YouTubers were leveraging the algorithm to sow misinfo and outrage. Schools in chaos, activist groups shuttered by threats, a lot of fear. Always began w a viral video.
It's the VCs of the 2000s and 2010s, especially Peter Thiel, who came up with a certain Elon Musk via PayPal, who argued that this was the technology industry's destiny
There's been a movement for a few years now among many of big tech's most powerful VCs to mass block, even try to harass or ban, news reporters as a class. Journalism unwelcome in the new digital utopia. And that's the circle from which a certain new Twitter CEO comes.
When coronavirus is allowed to spread unchecked, health systems get overwhelmed, deaths rise exponentially, and the case fatality rate jumps to near 10%. I can't believe this has to be said, but that is not any better for the economy than a prolonged shelter-in-place.
If you remember the Clubhouse sagas of 2020, you saw how openly this is now discussed among some of the Valley's most powerful. "Why does the press have a right to investigate private companies? Let the market decide."
Our story also reveals two new studies on how YouTube shapes your reality, both exclusive, from
@ufmg
+
@BKCHarvard
They independently confirm what many suspected: YouTube has been systematically diverting its millions of Br users toward far-right bloggers + conspiracy theories.
YouTube's algorithm leveraged the Zika crisis to enormous gain, hooking in users desperate to understand the disease crippling their infant children. In Zika-afflicted areas, we found parent after parent virtually addicted to the platform — and served dangerous misinformation.
Gaza Health Ministry reports have proven reliable in the past, and their numbers so far are consistent with the scale of bombardment and siege in Gaza. This is quite a charge to make without evidence, and it's telling he did not feel compelled to provide any.
For more on what happens when YouTube and other social networks route an ever-growing global share of human social relations through engagement-maximizing algorithms, read our essay on “the Algorithmification of the Human Experience”:
We talked to one mother, in Brazil, whose daughter had posted a video of her and a friend playing in swimsuits. YouTube’s algorithm found the video and promoted it to users who watched other partly-clothed prepubescent children.
Within a few days of posting, it had 400,000 views
@ufmg
@BKCHarvard
@virgilioalmeida
The
@BKCHarvard
study found YouTube's algorithm over & over redirecting users toward far-right and conspiracy videos.
Crucially, the algo is linking the channels together, creating an ecosystem where none had existed. Its pathways just happen to be ideal radicalization vectors.
What blows my mind about Korea’s coronavirus success:
• The speed of its turnaround. The numbers are staggering.
• The simplicity of its model. No futuristic gadgets fueled by unobtainium. No China-style mass lockdowns. It’s mostly political will, public will, and some planning
Still, few in the Valley wholly shared this view. At least until 2018, when a series of disruptions radicalized – there's no other word for it – elements of the tech world, particularly around the idea that the news media is incompatible with their mission to elevate humanity.
I’ve said this before and will keep saying it:
• Korea & Singapore show that covid-19 can be contained and its spread pushed to zero
• In the absence of Korea-style measures, you end up like Wuhan, overrun with rapid mass infection. Many countries already on this trajectory.
South Korea shows that it is possible to win against
#COVID19
Testing is a big reason for their success
Daily new confirmed cases peaked 12 days ago and are falling since then.
You can see the data for all countries in our entry
To be clear, Facebook’s inaction in Myanmar and Sri Lanka wasn’t because they didn’t know. Human rights monitors were flying to Menlo Park and cornering FB officials at conferences to plead with them to do something, anything. They knew every step of the way.
It’s worth underscoring that the direct US-Russia war that is being demanded here would explicitly, and with near-total certainty, lead to a full nuclear exchange and potentially millions of deaths.
Why are European leaders so adamant that Americans kill and die in Afghanistan in perpetuity on their behalf? Every EU foreign policy pro I’ve ever spoken to has been clear on this: to prevent Afghan refugees from coming to Europe.
There's a deep belief that the defining battle of our time is bw tech companies that want to liberate us and dying institutions like the newsmedia trying to halt that progress out of a desperate bid for survival. Only by destroying those institutions can big tech save humanity.
Of course there's a lot that got us from the 1990s cyber-revolution manifestos to what we see on Twitter today, and a lot more going on behind the curtain. If you'll forgive the crass plug, I tell that story and its implications for our future in my book:
Each video might appear innocent on its own, a home movie of a kid in a two-piece swimsuit or a nightie. But each has three common traits:
• the girl is mostly unclothed or briefly nude
• she is no older than age 8
• her video is being heavily promoted by YouTube’s algorithm
Any user who watched one kiddie video would be directed by YouTube's algorithm to dozens more — each selected out of millions of otherwise-obscure home movies by an incredibly sophisticated piece of software that YouTube calls an artificial intelligence. The families had no idea.
During the 2014 Israel-Gaza war, Twitter was like 80% news reports and firsthand civilian accounts, plus 20% shitposters. The result was an unprecedented shift in US attitudes on the conflict. Today those proportions are basically flipped and the result is, well, this.
@ufmg
@BKCHarvard
@virgilioalmeida
We've spent two years reporting on the causes and consequences of online radicalization. Nothing disturbed me as much as this story, because it shows that we are all deeply vulnerable. Here's our
@readercenter
on how this fits into our other reporting:
@ufmg
@BKCHarvard
The
@ufmg
@virgilioalmeida
study found that, just as YouTube installed its new algorithm, pro-Bolsonaro channels saw their reach explode. And ***comments sitewide*** suddenly shifted in favor of Bolsonaro + Bolsonaro-promoted conspiracies. The platform was shaping user sentiment.
The speed and extent of Moscow's climbdown is just head-spinning. Three weeks ago it called Ukraine a rightful Russian territory run by genocidal Nazis. Now it’s voluntarily offering the Sweden model – a Western ally in all but name – and getting told no! Incredible.
@ufmg
@BKCHarvard
@virgilioalmeida
It’s not about any political agenda at YouTube. Incremental extremism — the rabbit hole — is just what works. But it goes beyond indulging preexisting impulses. It trains users to have them. Much like the child sexualization ring we found during reporting:
YouTube’s algorithm has been curating home movies of unwitting families into a catalog of semi-nude kids, we found.
YT often plays the videos after users watch softcore porn, building an audience of millions for what experts call child sexual exploitation
YouTube’s algorithm also changed immediately after we notified the company, no longer linking the kiddie videos together.
Strangely, however, YouTube insisted that the timing was a coincidence. When I pushed, YT said the timing might have been related, but wouldn’t say it was.
The similarity in Brazil to Jan 6 is not a coincidence. The Brazilian right and especially far-right have long looked up to and modeled themselves after the US right. No one had to tell them to copy Trump.
This very weird moment, with the transfer of power just sorta stalled out, is a lesson in how much our democracy is built on unwritten norms (media validates consensus reality, losers concede voluntarily) and how easily they can be torn down. Just adrift in the abyss, again.
The gap between what political scientists are saying about the status of American democracy, vs what non-scholars are saying, has never been wider in my feed than it is today. After five years of hearing the former accurately project all this, I’m taking their warnings seriously.
Initially, YouTube gave me comment saying that they were trending in that direction. Experts were thrilled, calling it potentially a hugely positive step.
Then YouTube “clarified” their comment. Creators rely on recommendations to drive traffic, they said, so would stay on. 📈
News: A major U.S. company is, through a factory in owns in Russia, quietly supplying vital materials used by Russia’s air and missile forces in Ukraine
Our investigation reveals the company’s terms with Moscow – and its struggle to keep its plant running
@ufmg
@BKCHarvard
@virgilioalmeida
@readercenter
Please watch
@TheWeekly
episode on FX / Hulu on this story. I love the written word but was blown away by the power of film, and of feeling like you're meeting some of the incredible people we met while reporting this. Please do watch:
I really went into thinking that South Korea’s success would be built around some secret sauce no other country could possibly reproduce, but it was the opposite. All pretty straightforward really. And Korean officials are very eager to share their lessons – and their test kits!
Incredible moment. Implicit acknowledgement that the recommendation systems at the heart of the social media business model are dangerous for society, and on a scale that matters for US elections
YouTube, to its credit, said it has been working nonstop on this issue since a similar issue was first reported in February.
YT also removed some of the videos immediately after we alerted the company, though not others that we did not specifically flag.
Three days before Facebook executive Adam Mosseri said the platform did too much good in Myanmar to turn it off, a UN fact-finding team said FB played a "determining role” in the still-ongoing genocide.
Every sentence of this from today’s big NYT Morning newsletter is false. Highly ideological fantasy dressed up as news analysis. Telling that the whole thing hangs on an aggregated quote from a goofball blogger with zero foreign policy knowledge.
Hopefully this will remain a matter of academic and media studies interest only. But it is worth considering why much of cable news has become a nonstop cheerleading for the US to declare war on Russia, often via a 'no fly zone'.
I know people keep making this point but you really cannot overstate the late-era Soviet vibes to bungled & contradictory official statements about the leader’s ailing health amid a chaotic & uncertain transition of powe&
Simultaneously shutting down Afghanistan’s economy and flooding it with food aid is all but certain to decimate the country’s agricultural sector for a generation. This is what the US did in c.1990 Somalia and the country has still never recovered.
Many many things to be pessimistic about in this conflict, but fwiw I do think that mainstream American understanding has advanced dramatically as taboos around discussing and reporting it honestly have fallen away
India's wealthy liberals are veering hard into "I'm a liberal but how dare these rights groups criticize my country," a standard milestone in any democracy's slide toward electoral autocracy.
I keep thinking about Lodi and Bergamo, two small cities in northern Italy both hit by coronavirus around Feb 23
Their infection rates looked identical for weeks, until, on March 8, Bergamo’s surged so rapidly that the military was later sent in to relieve overwhelmed morgues
The United States may be actively accelerating one of the world’s worst coronavirus epidemics, in Iran. This
@HRW
report finds US sanctions have “drastically constrained” Iranians’ access to “vital medicines and medical equipment.”
If it seems outlandish that a handful of play-acting opportunists exploiting social division and systemic distrust for short-term gain could really bring down democracy from within, I am here to inform you that this is precisely how modern authoritarianization works.
Guys I'm so sorry but the UFOs aren't real. The propagators of this story are known cranks who claim they can communicate with the dead plus some weirdo hucksters. There are no aliens.
Two common misapprehensions about Korea:
1) That it prevented an outbreak. In fact, their success was subduing an epidemic already underway
2) That Korea relied on special magical technology. In truth, its methods and containment tools are not prohibitively complex or expensive.
@ufmg
@BKCHarvard
@virgilioalmeida
@readercenter
@TheWeekly
Any journalists or researchers interested in digging in to this further, please get in touch! Happy to share our findings, sources, etc. Our story covers maybe 5% of what we found, and I suspect even that barely scratches the surface. The more of us looking into this the better.
Demographic trends suggest that the Senate will only become more minoritarian, with one study estimating that, by 2040, half of the country will hold 84 Senate seats, with Dem voters, though a national majority, clustered heavily in the 16-seat permanent minority.
Democrats have just won the national popular vote for the 7th time in 8 elections, something no party has ever done before…
… and yet Democrats are sweating out another Electoral College squeaker & have only appointed 3 of 9 Supreme Court justices.
Minoritarian government.