Ok, secret is out.
So much been written about
@HarvardIOP
Youth Poll, but THIS is my favorite.
@zoegraceyu
tells story of students behind it; the weight it carries; & dedication of
@JoeBiden
& team to listen to their concerns.
One thing I know already.
If not for voters under 30 ... tonight WOULD have been a Red Wave.
CNN National House Exit Poll
R+ 13 65+
R+ 11 45-64
D +2 30-44
D +28 18-29
#GenZ
did their job.
Newt Gingrich on Joe Biden.
"Republicans must learn to quit underestimating
@POTUS
."
"Conservatives’ hostility to Biden administration on our terms tends to blind us to just how effective Biden has been."
"Biden team had 1 of the best first term off-year elections in history."
For everyone carrying on about the new WSJ survey about young people identifying as less patriotic and more disconnected with America than their elders...
Look at this photo.
THIS.
IS.
WHY.
🚨More simple math
High turnout
+
Voting 63% Democrat to 35% Republican
=
#GenZ
and young
#millennials
under 30 canceled out every voter over age 65 across US
Dems lost votes of everyone over 40, like '20.
+25 w/ 18-24
+32 w/ 25-29
+11 w/ 30-39
= is why we have Dem gov in PA, MI, WI & likely Dem Senate.
While fear of MAGA was a factor,
@POTUS
deserves MUCH credit for keeping word/empowering youth.
☑️Student loans
☑️Climate
☑️Guns
Nothing is settled, but earlier today:
- RealClear called
#NY19
likely/lean R;
- FiveThirtyEight: R slightly favored, Dem odds 32%;
- Cook had toss-up.
Now, with ~90% in, Pat Ryan +3.4, +4200 votes.
This is what happens when women are threatened & youth are poked.
See 2018.
I often highlight divides between demo groups so we can find ways to bridge them & unite country.
NO SUCH DIVIDES TODAY.
% POSITIVE REACTION TO
@POTUS
#SOTU
72% 18+
69% <45
73% 45+
68% Male
76% Female
64% White
85% POC
71% Non-coll
72% College
73% <$50k
71% $50k+
-
@CNN
.
@StephenAtHome
, you can't ask a pastor his single favorite verse!
@ReverendWarnock
narrows it down—selects Gospel of John Chapter 1: The light shines in the darkness and the darkness overcometh it not.
Thankful GA's senator is challenging us all to be a part of that light.
Young people delivered
#AZSen
to
@POTUS
in '20; tonight they did same for
@SenMarkKelly
.
Kelly earned astounding 76% of 18-29 vote. Like Trump, Masters won voters 45+ but wasn't enough to stop
#GenZ
wave.
18-29: Kelly +56
30-44: Kelly +19
45-64: Masters +9
65+: Masters +6
The math is simple.
The
#GenZ
/
#millennial
alliance rejected the big lie, created the energy to withstand the "red wave" & now it propels us forward.
Please read my
@nytopinion
piece on how Democrats should seize this moment & build momentum for '24.
4 million more 18-29-year-olds voted compared to '14. Virtually all of them voted D. Without expanded youth participation, this isn't a wave.
Other than President Trump, no one deserves more credit than
#Parkland
families,
@davidhogg111
,
@AMarch4OurLives
#DarkBrandon
popping off in Rasmussen tracker.
Approval +8 over last month.
Biden Approval
40% May 9-11
39% June 7-9
37% July 5-7
45% August 3-7
- Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research
Doesn't matter how you slice it; 2020's surge in voter turnout was led by young
#GenZ
and
#millennial
voters.
Without them, we would have heard Donald Trump, not
@JoeBiden
address the nation last night.
.
@VP
Harris connecting well with young Americans; impressive for any elected official these days.
18-29 (compared to voters 65+):
60% Favorable (+22)
59% Approval (+26)
52% Qualified to be POTUS (+24)
52% Honest/trustworthy (+30)
51% Likable (+20)
Youth vote &
@CBSNewsPoll
battleground tracker
% of 18-29 RV who will “definitely vote”
‘18: 49%
‘22: 60%
Generic ballot
‘18: 50% D - 25% R
‘22: 66% D - 24% R
While methods are slightly different, this doesn’t argue historic youth participation will decline significantly.
All white voters in the midterms:
58% Republican
40% Democrats
White voters under 30 (
#GenZ
&
#millennial
):
58% Democrat
40% Republican
That's Donald Trump you can thank for that one.
Early voting is surging for all age groups, but young voters are surging more at this time -
In 91% of states, 18-29 share is higher than 2014; in 100% of states, 30-39 share higher. 68% states 1st time share up.
At this point in 2014, voters under the age of 30 had cast 849,876 votes. This year?
2,347,864 voters under the age of 30 have already voted, and counting.
In 18, very few identified youth wave that added 2.5 pts to Dem margin in midterm. It can be hard to see in most media & candidate polls w/ limited samples of voters <30.
What’s also hard to see is work
#genz
has been doing to build infrastructure to turn this anger into votes.
Hearing 1,000s of retailers dropped Mr. Pillow reminds me that in a culture war/pillow fight -- Mike Lindell chose Red, lots of counties, not much GDP.
@davidhogg111
's got Blue. Only 1/5 of the number of counties, but 70% of America's economic activity.
This is
@538
Senate model 2 days before Dobbs:
54% chance R win control
46% chance D win
Same model the day after Kansas vote:
57% chance D win control
43% chance R win
Approve Biden exec order requiring background checks on all gun buyers:
74% Total
81% Urban
74% Suburban
69% Rural
77% Suburban Women
66% Rural Whites
69% White men
74% White women
73% <35
74% 65+
94% D
53% R
76% I
.
@FoxNews
poll
Her social media audience is 3x the size of the President’s; larger than most countries on the planet. And oh yeah, don’t push her buttons. My take on
@taylorswift13
impact on midterms ->
Very strong night for
@JoeBiden
turning toward uniting the party, then the country -- with a special and well-deserved message to young people they've been waiting to hear ...
"We hear you."
Sometimes 1 question cuts to essence of it all
Politics better/worse/same if more __ in office
Young people
Biden voters: +59 (Better-Worse)
Trump voters: -15
Racial minorities
Biden voters: +65
Trump voters: -18
LGBTQ
Biden voters: +46
Trump voters: -53
@CBSNewsPoll
Gallup poll: Americans are now more likely to be socially liberal than conservative for the first time since Gallup started polling the question in 2001.
Groups who think Biden canceling $10,000 student debt for those making $125k or less is...
Good idea:
-Voters <50
-Black
-Hispanic
-Moderate
-Undecided midterm
-Suburban women
Bad idea:
-White men
-HS or less
-Rural
-White evangelicals
Read
@SimonWDC
.
"It feels like we are in early stages of a far more aggressive rejection of greater MAGA than we’ve seen to date. From Tel Aviv to Nashville to Disney & now across Wisconsin, good people are rising up to say “enough” to MAGA."
News from
@cnn
poll isn’t more of same re Biden, it’s erosion of Republican support in generic ballot IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
RV
May 42D - 49R
July 46D - 46R
Women
May 46D - 44R
July 51D - 40R
Independents
May 33D - 41R
July 36D - 39R
65+
May 37D - 62R
July 49D - 47R
This matters more than some might think -
When young people see a part of themselves in government, they feel represented; this builds a little trust — they open up and listen.
Rock on.
Believing Trump has a +3 lead over Biden in '24 hypothetical also means believing:
1)
#GenZ
&
#millennials
shifted net 20-points from Biden to Trump since '20;
2) Seniors shifted net 10-point from Trump to Biden;
3) And all of this happened since Nov 22.
I don't get it.
This one gets me -
Majority of young women, older women, and younger men all supported abortion rights protection in Ohio last night -
The only group that voted against?
Gen X and Boomer men.
It’s about time for the Democratic Party to understand why
@BernieSanders
is leading this field -
Because
#millennials
&
#Genz
have grown up in era of fear - both physical and financial -
And those who empathize with them, stand a shot at earning other half of youth vote.
Consider the formative experiences of young voters. They have seen Middle Eastern wars and financial collapse. Climate change threatens their future. Against this backdrop, it isn’t hard to understand why so many support Sanders. My
@WSJOpinion
column:
Post 9/11
#Millennials
came of age trusting institutions. Now, they have no choice but to rebuild them.
% college students who trust all/most of time:
2002: POTUS 59%, Congress 54%, Military 69%, Media 12%
2018: POTUS 20%, Congress 20%, Military 52%, Media 19%
@HarvardIOP
Mayor
@PeteButtigieg
leading with values and connecting them to both domestic and foreign policy - able to show how one can disagree without being disagreeable.
What’s most interesting about these, and youth vote numbers is that they’re consistent across most every state - and not only ones targeted by Ds. This is a fundamental shift in the importance of political engagement, and it’s a good thing.
2.5 million Hispanic voters have cast a ballot already, nationwide. At this point in '14, Hispanic voters had cast 1.1 million votes. This surge is greater than that measured among any other race or ethnic group.
In 2018, 62% of Americans who didn’t vote later told
@pewresearch
they wished they had.
Those people - millions of them - would have voted D by 19 pts if they had second chance.
Don’t be that person. Don’t let your friends be these people.
#vote
Big H/T
@jschavez
Willie Nelson reached out to Trump to go see the detained kids on the southern border.
Willie never heard back.
This is powerful.
Never been a bigger fan.
Willie for the win...
Best part of my work is opportunity I have to meet and get to know future of our nation.
@santiagomayer_
was a frustrated teenager in a Mexican high school a few years ago - today he’s one of the reasons Democrats withstood the red wave from older voters.
This is America. 👇🏻
I don’t do forecasts this far out, but I’m breaking that rule.
The Senate is Lean D. The House is a tossup. There will not be a red wave.
Mark my words. They tend to be right.
The last time a one term President lost:
Here’s George H. W. Bush conceding to Bill Clinton saying,
“We respect the majesty of the democratic system - and America must always come first. And we will get behind this new president and wish him well.”
This is one of most important studies we’ve ever done.We found as many young people experience anxiety as joy in typical day;they don’t believe Boomers care about them; they see a spiraling moral crisis.
The good news; they also plan to vote.
Great work
@harvardiop
students!
This is what happens when the values of
@POTUS
meet the values of a generation —
1) White House sees people;
2) The comms and digital team empowers them with respect;
3) They become happy, fulfilled & greatest advocate you can find.
And sometimes, Aunt Vicky just cries.
This is amazing: President Biden invited the gay nephew of the Republican Congresswoman who cried over marriage equality to the White House to watch him sign marriage equality into law.
25% of the electorate is "persuadable" according to
@NBCNews
poll analysis --
And this group shifted +9 toward Democrats as summer turns to fall:
2010 merged polls: R+13
2018 merged polls: D+8
2022 (Jan-May) merged polls: R+6
2022 (August): D+3
More on potential of
#youthvote
here - again, a demo that hasn’t passed 21% turnout since Seinfeld was on TV.
And if it does, we need to thank the students, families, teachers from
#Parkland
&
@AMarch4OurLives
for starting a conversation in America about civics and voting.
Power Up, Youth Wave ed.: The mass shooting generation is turning out -- the young American early vote is up 125% compared to 2014, a potentially historic #. 9 months after 17 people were killed in Parkland, youth activists are working harder than ever:
Some people call them Gen Z, Zoomers, millennials, youth, I call them
#patriots
.
And they’re not even close to being done today.
#youthvote
#youth
#VOTE
47% of these surge voters are under the age of 40 (29% under the age of 30). That's a 3 point share improvement for younger voters upon the 2018 blue wave youth share of surge voters.
BREAKING: President Biden announced he’s formally establishing an American Climate Corps!!!
This a major victory for our movement, our generation, and our fight for a Green New Deal. Here’s what it means: 🧵
For second month in a row,
@CBSNewsPoll
shows
#GenZ
&
#millennials
under 30 voting at near presidential level numbers.
Youth also +9 on enthusiasm since August.
Biden approval 58%.
Generic ballot D+27 & has room to grow.
🚨
In 1 month, while all other groups mostly stable,
@POTUS
job approval +19 among
#GenZ
.
Dem advantage in generic ballot also +19 improvement with Gen Z (+3 overall).
Politics not complicated.
A generation's values/priorities are clear
+
Politicians deliver
=
Numbers move
NPR/PBS/Marist poll:
Biden +2 v Trump. Gets there by:
Losing Gen Z/millennials -2
Winning Gen X (+5), Boomers (+8), Silent/Greatest (+2).
In Quinnipiac, Biden +3. Gets there by:
Winning 18-34 +20
Winning 35-49 +6
Losing 50-64 by -12
Winning 65+ by +8
Both polls RDD & RV.
With 68% of voters under 35 disapproving of SCOTUS overturning Roe v Wade;
Youth seeing difference politics/gov can make in their lives.
#GenZ
&
#millennials
<35 overwhelming support sweeping reform of US institutions per
@foxnews
poll
(1/2)
Here's what I am looking at right now.
18-29 year-olds only
Economist/YouGov
Biden +20 v Trump
Quinnipiac
Biden +24 v Trump
Biden +2 v Trump & Kennedy & West & Stein
Divided govt means no one gets everything they want - but noteworthy
@POTUS
stood up for
#GenZ
and
#millennials
against Republicans who wanted to cut his
#student
debt relief program.
Rather than melting like “snowflakes,” millions of
#GenZ
-ers are leaning in, fighting, organizing and voting like no other generation in our lifetimes. More 👇🏻
What’s the biggest difference between Gen Z and other generations? We have never seen america united. Ever. We have been perpetually let down by a political system that failed to address school shootings, climate change, lack of economic opportunity, cost of living and more.
Wait.
What is so shocking that a young Black woman from Detroit (or anyone) wants POTUS to know she cares about:
* Palestinians
* The planet
* Who controls her body
* Student debt
Only thing that surprised me (somewhat) was the order; she put others ahead of herself.
... and the young people will win.
They have begun to turn their anxieties into energy. They have tasted small victories post-Parkland and are committed to the hard work of listening, learning and re-shaping America.
It is my belief, my feeling as I travel around America, that the women & young people—HS students, elementary school students & college students—will lead us as part of a nonviolent revolution & we will create an America that is better, a little more humane.
John Lewis
@Harvard
Young people & their families have been fighting for this for years.
This office of gun violence prevention exists because
#GenZ
and
#millennials
voted & voted again --
Celebrate this win. It shows the difference politics can make.
BREAKING: In less than 24 hours we CRUSHED our goal of raising Val Demings $100,000 to help her defeat NRA puppet Marco Rubio! If we can get 100,000 people to donate $33 we can raise as much money for Val Demings as Marco Rubio got from the NRA. Are you in?
“In 2021, a Times investigation found that over the previous five years, police officers had killed more than 400 motorists who were not wielding a gun or knife, or being pursued for a violent crime. That’s a rate of more than one a week.”
Not sure this is how DeSantis wrote it up -
1⃣Soft launch presidential campaign / launch book tour
2⃣Sit down with select media to maximize control over message
3⃣Lose 15 points in the polls
Feb 2023
Trump +15
Mar 2023
Trump +30
-
@foxnews
#GenZ
at the White House. That's some respect right there.
Love this photo of you,
@santiagomayer_
, &
@POTUS
so much!
Congrats to you and all the
#GenZ
-ers at that party and around the country who work so hard to make America a better place, for everyone.
For my money, this may be the most perfect execution of a youth vote strategy in modern history. So proud of former
@harvardiop
-er
@TeddyLandis1
, his leadership & all-star team.
Get some rest; your phones will be ringing soon.
If 70% of American youth could band together to save us from fascism in the 1940s; I believe 70% of young voters can turn out to vote in '22 & '24 & preserve democracy.
Like
@davidhogg111
said-if everyone brings a friend-we are a better, stronger, more just country overnight.
If every young person who voted in 2020 found one friend who hasn’t voted before and got them to vote- we could replace every single one of these corrupt and incompetent assholes in 6 years.
All you need to do is bring a friend to vote.
How
@ThisWeekABC
is spending so much time on a poll they know is likely outlier is beyond me - it’s a real low point for our industry and extremely disappointing.
Next door at
@NBCNews
, they report majority of voters are satisfied with their own personal financial situation.
While this piece cites our
@HarvardIOP
poll that "just 4-in-10" said they would vote, it doesn't offer the perspective that in the last 32 years no more than 21% of youth have EVER turned out.
What it does say, however, is that in GEORGIA, TURNOUT AMONG 18-29s IS ALREADY 21%.
18-29 year old turnout in early voting, compared to this point in 2014, is:
- 5x higher in Texas
- 5x higher in Nevada
- 4x higher in Georgia
- 3x higher in Arizona
A majority of literally every subgroup from
@QuinnipiacPoll
poll agrees
#DeSantis
withholding school leaders' salaries if they require masks for students is a BAD idea.
This includes Rs who know it's a DeSantis idea and everyone else.
A challenging feat, but the Gov did it.
#GenZ
wave not accident:
"Biden & Ds invested in recruiting young influencers to amplify message. Days before election, DNC assembled group of online activists & gave them tools to publicize admin successes & encourage people to vote."
-
@Victorshi2020
Who would've predicted Florida of all places will bring us the first
#GenZer
, or as
@MaxwellFrostFL
calls it, the first member of the School Shooting Generation to Congress?
The fighting spirit of
@davidhogg111
& team from Parkland that upended the 2018 midterms is alive & well.
I've seen enough: Bernie Sanders-endorsed Maxwell Frost (D) wins the
#FL10
Dem primary, defeating state Sen. Randolph Bracy (D) and former Reps. Alan Grayson (D) and Corrine Brown (D).
@CookPolitical
November rating: Solid D.
Fascinating
@MonmouthPoll
poll & warning for No Labels fans, as this is solid evidence of how "generic" candidates fare vs candidates who are better known.
In Dec, DeSantis was basically a "generic" Republican & he was +13.
Today, as more voters know his story, he's -24.
In no way is this an overstatement.
Young Americans, specifically those <40 have fundamentally different set of values than older Americans, especially re role govt should play in solving structural barriers in system.
This is not an endorsement of candidate.
It's a fact.
I hear this, but it's not only under-polling young people.
@HarvardIOP
has been polling young people for 20+ yrs.
It's about listening to young people, understanding values, vision & recognize this is 3rd cycle in a row they pulled it out for Dems.
Let's talk
@VanJones68
.
We may have under-polled young people… we certainly missed SOMETHING. It’s time to look in the mirror and recognize that we don’t understand what the American people are going through as well as we think we do.
#ElectionNight
#elections2022
Love the sage advice that older Americans who voted at half the rate of
#genz
(when they were young) give to
@davidhogg111
and the organizers of one of the most impactful social movements in a half century…
I don't care who you are, or what party you're from, if you want to understand what's in hearts of millions of young Americans, watch this.
Beto speaks to the fears weighing down millions every day - and in turn, the identities carried into voting booths. 👏
@BetoORourke
For all of the Americans who live in fear, our leaders must be fearless. No more weak stuff in the United States of America.
Don't be afraid to believe.
AP VoteCast makes clear that it was
#youthvote
-
Specifically large numbers of Black, Hispanic/LatinX
#GenZ
&
#millennial
#GeorgiaVoters
responsible for turning Georgia
#Biden
blue.
Biden advantage
18-24: +23
25-29: +12
30-39: +16
40-49: -2
50-64: -11
65+: -13
#youthvote
KISS Method
1) '18: D's lost 45+ vote by 1
2) '22: D's lost 45+ vote by 10
3) This means > pressure in '22 on youth to turn out D's
4) '22: D's won <45s by 13 & 18-29s by 28
Was this record turnout?
Won't' know for weeks/months.
Was it enough for D's?
YES!
A hopeful sign for sure, but there are many more times this number of young voters who have not yet returned their ballot or voted.
Ramping up this pace — shattering youth turnout records — this is Trump’s worst nightmare.
Been a lot of noise claiming
#GenZ
&
#millennials
not showing up for early vote.
FALSE
Truth is young R's NOT showing up.
In Battlegrounds:
* # of early votes cast by Ds <40 ⬆️ relative to '18
* Same for independents <40 (which helps D)
* Early votes cast by Rs <40 ⬇️
#VOTE
According to exit polls:
58% of midterm votes in Wisconsin
58% in Pennsylvania
57% in Arizona …
Hold unfavorable views of
#Trump
.
Don’t even get me started about what
#genz
thinks.
"This rise in (Biden) job approval is closely tied to policy accomplishments, with 40% of likely
#GenZ
voters stating they are more or much more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate in November due specifically to President Biden’s action on student loan debt."
👇🏼
Polling is hard.
I don't like to criticize others' work, but releasing a poll that shows Trump leading Biden in hypothetical '24 matchup among young voters < 35 & all voters < 50 is problematic.
Despite this, pollster receives A- from 538.