Disclaimer: as has always been the case, the personal judgments offered by this account regarding election results are not official race "calls" and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Cook Political Report, NBC News or any other entity.
BREAKING: Biden/Harris just became the first presidential ticket in history to surpass 80 million votes...
Biden 80,033,996 (51.0%)
Trump 73,878,907 (47.1%)
Prior to 2020, no ticket had ever hit 70 million.
It's possible the margin for "No" in red Kansas will be a resounding double digits, a sign of just how unpopular overturning Roe v. Wade is nationally.
I've seen enough. We're at a Biden 306-232 Electoral vote margin entering any recounts, and I've never seen a recount overturn leads of the magnitude Biden enjoys in AZ/GA/WI.
Breaking: Biden's national popular vote lead just surpassed 6 million...
Biden 79,732,083 (51.0%)
Trump 73,731,087 (47.2%)
Biden/Harris have now won 10 million more votes than any presidential ticket in U.S. history.
I've seen enough: Janet Protasiewicz defeats Daniel Kelly for Wisconsin Supreme Court. The result flips ideological control of the court from conservative to liberal, a huge victory for the pro-choice side.
It's time to start calling baseless conspiracies what they are: libelous attacks on the 500,000+ heroic poll workers & election administrators in every corner of the U.S. who pulled off a successful election amid record-shattering turnout and a global pandemic.
True story: the day before the election, House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy told me that if Trump refused to concede, he and McConnell would eventually have to come out and issue a joint statement acknowledging the result.
In the end, McCarthy left McConnell twisting in the wind.
I've seen enough: Pat Ryan (D) defeats Marc Molinaro (R) in the
#NY19
special election. This is a huge victory for Dems in a bellwether, Biden +1.5 district.
Breaking: Philadelphia just reported almost 8k newly counted ballots...
Biden 6,628 (85%)
Trump 1,140 (14%)
Biden's statewide PA lead now up to 72,379 votes (1.1%), more than double the automatic recount threshold.
At the end of the day, House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy voted to object to both AZ and PA's electors after acknowledging multiple times to me there was no doubt as to Biden's victory.
Here's the story right now:
1. Black turnout looks, frankly, phenomenal.
2. Perdue/Loeffler are approaching Trump %s of the vote in a lot of deep red rural counties, but turnout there isn't anything special.
3. It's getting harder to see a path for either R, but esp. Loeffler.
Needless to say, tonight's results are consistent w/ a political environment in which Republicans would comfortably take back both the House and Senate in 2022.
New:
#CA47
Rep. Katie Porter's (D) lead over Scott Baugh (R) just expanded to 4,555 votes (2.3%). This one's not trending in the right direction for Republicans.
Tiny, rural Randolph Co., GA (59% Black) is at *97%* of its November turnout. It's going for Warnock by 13.2 pts and Ossoff by 12.8 after going for Biden by 9.2 pts in November.
This is a clear pattern now.
Fact: when President Trump took office in January 2017, there were 241 Republicans in the House.
Since then, 115 (48%) have either retired, resigned, been defeated or are retiring in 2020.
Breaking: the U.S. just surpassed a record-shattering *156 million* votes counted...
Biden 79,535,824 (51.0%)
Trump 73,616,203 (47.2%)
Biden's popular vote lead is up to 5.9 million (3.8%).
I've seen enough: in a major victory for the pro-choice side, Ohio Issue 1 (a measure to raise the threshold to pass a state constitutional amendment to 60%) fails.
If you don't think Donald Trump could reemerge as a formidable candidate for the presidency in four years, you haven't been watching the last four+ years.
Breaking: Donald Trump's share of the U.S. vote just fell to 46.9%. He's now failed to crack 47% in either of his runs for president (for perspective, Mitt Romney got 47.2% in 2012 and Hillary Clinton got 48.2% in 2016).
In 2016, Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and the presidency) by a combined 77,744 votes. Right now, Biden is ahead in those three states by three times that margin - 233,001 votes.
Breaking: Texas just surpassed its 2016 total votes cast w/ one day of early voting & Election Day left to go.
The state is reporting 9,009,850 votes already cast, vs. the all-time record of 8,969,226 in 2016. This is massive.
BREAKING: Danica Roem (D) has defeated 26-year Del. Bob Marshall (R) in
#HD13
, becoming the first transgender person elected to VA's state legislature.
Breaking: Philadelphia just finished counting what might be one of its final batches of votes...
Biden 10,170 (86%)
Trump 1,540 (13%)
Biden's statewide PA lead climbs to 81,597 (1.2%), almost double Trump's '16 margin of 44,292 (0.7%).
New: Philadelphia posts newly counted ballots (that I think are the first of the provisionals to be counted??)...
Biden 3,728 (79%)
Trump 927 (20%)
Biden's statewide PA lead just surpassed 65k.
Update: as more Michigan counties have certified and reported to the Secretary of State, Biden's margin of victory (154,187) is now more than 14 times Trump's 2016 margin there (10,704 votes).
The first heavily Dem rural county, Macon Co., is fully reporting:
Ossoff: +25.0
Warnock: +25.6
Biden (Nov.): +21.3
And turnout is at 91.8% of November levels. Possibly the single best piece of data for the Dems yet.
Republicans wouldn’t be slight favorites to win House control right now if they hadn’t been able to gerrymander far more states than Dems.
And, Dems wouldn’t hold the slight majority today if courts hadn’t struck down GOP gerrymanders in FL, NC, PA and VA in the last 7 years.
So two things:
1) Biden is well on his way to flipping MI & WI (in addition to AZ &
#NE02
) and is doing well enough in PA's completed counties to be on track to win there
2) Polls (esp. at district-level) have rarely led us more astray & it's going to take a long time to unpack
Breaking: the Biden/Harris '20 ticket's popular vote margin (3.8627 points) just surpassed the Obama/Biden '12 ticket's popular vote margin (3.8597 points).
It's now the second largest popular victory since 1996.
The Georgia hand count audit is complete and
@GaSecofState
is set to certify the 2020 result as:
Biden 2,475,141 (49.5%)
Trump 2,462,857 (49.3%)
Biden wins Georgia's (16 EVs) by 12,284 votes.
Perdue's narrower defeat is especially bitter for Republicans, considering that runoff was for a six-year term, whereas Warnock will need to run again in 2022.
#GASEN
Democrats are the favorites in the Ossoff/Perdue race as well, which means they're currently favored for Senate control. Still a ways to go there.
#GASEN
With
#WA03
and
#CA49
in the books and Reps. Mary Peltola (D) and Katie Porter (D) in strong position, 2023 is likely to be the first time Republicans are shut out of every district touching the Pacific Ocean.
Breathtaking: statewide, Texas just surpassed 80% of its total 2016 votes cast, leading the nation. And there's still more than a week of voting to go.