*CBS News Poll of Speech Watchers*
We interviewed watchers immediately after the speech.
More than eight in 10 of those who watched approve of Biden’s speech.
Most said it made them feel optimistic about America.
CBS News Poll of Democratic voters who watched the debate:
Debate viewers said national frontrunner Sanders impressed them the most of any candidate, followed closely by Biden and then Warren.
Joe Biden gets good marks overall for the job he is doing handling the coronavirus outbreak, as well as his job as president generally. 64% of Americans think he is doing a good job handling the outbreak, and 61% approve of the job he's doing as president.
*New*
CBS News poll:
If Trump Wins, More Voters Foresee Better Finances, Staying Out of War
Biden trails Trump in potential rematch in polling a year out from 2024 presidential election
Looking ahead to ‘22 and ‘24, what do Republicans think the party’s strategy should be?
53% say the party needs to focus on message and ideas to win over more voters, but 47% say the GOP already has enough voters and should focus on pushing for changes to voting rules instead.
*New*
CBS News Poll: Voters Remember Trump's Economy As Good – Boosting Trump to a National Lead Over Biden Today
Biden also trails on being seen as having vision for country
*New* CBS News Poll:
Public sees Biden cooperating with documents investigation; job approval remains unchanged
Republicans see different treatment for Biden than Trump
Why haven’t the indictments hurt?
In part it’s b/c Trump voters generally believe it's Trump who tells them the truth.
More than conservative media and their own friends & family.
Trump leads among those say it's very important a nominee is honest & trustworthy.
Past CBS News Polls have shown most Americans support amending the constitution to elect a president based on the popular vote, rather than keeping the electoral college.
Sanders' supporters are currently more committed to him. 47% of his NH voters say they've definitely made up their minds. Just 15% of Biden's backers describe their choice that way.
*CBS News Poll of Speech Watchers*
More than six in 10 who said Biden’s policies will help lower inflation, up from 48% who felt that way before the speech.
TRUMP LOYALTY
Republicans’ general desire for loyalty to Trump has risen.
76% now say it’s very or somewhat important to them that Republicans be loyal to Trump, up 11 pts from January, back before he was indicted.
CBS News Battleground Tracker:
In Iowa, it's Sanders, Biden and a wild finish ahead
Second choices, enthusiasm key in Iowa; Super Tuesday poll is tight
(Other candidates at 1% or less)
In Wisconsin voters say Trump is most concerned about the wealthy and elite, rather than the middle class or poor. Relatively fewer say the same of Biden.
Some of the Biden administration’s spending proposals are popular with a majority of Americans.
Most approve of the administration’s infrastructure proposal…
Today, a potential rematch looks tight. Biden is down one point, and inside the margin of error, in a match-up with Donald Trump, whom he beat by seven million votes three years ago.
*NEW*
CBS News poll: A year after Jan. 6, violence still seen threatening U.S. democracy, and some say force can be justified
This is the first in a CBS News Elections and Polling series studying the state of democracy.
Read it here:
Dems are divided on whether the U.S. ought to send weapons & supplies to Israel. Reps show a slight majority in favor.
The Dems who don't think the U.S. ought to are relatively less approving of Biden's handling of the conflict than Dems who do.
Voters are still shopping around.
Most are considering multiple candidates.
Just a fifth of voters in IA & about a quarter in NH are considering Trump & nobody else.
Only-Trump voters are outnumbered by the third of the electorate who aren't considering him at all.
The % of Americans who think things are going badly today has hit a high for the year - so we might expect any incumbent to be down.
And Biden is trailing Trump in a potential 2024 match-up by 3 points.
NATIONAL POLL: 50% of Dem primary voters rated Warren's debate performance as impressive, ahead of all the other candidates, with Sanders named by 42%. Bloomberg was at the bottom, with just 15% saying his performance impressed them.
GOP primary voters think Trump is their best shot in November, but it's Haley who right now has a bigger lead over Biden than either Trump or DeSantis in potential head-to-head match-ups.
All three of these GOP contenders, have at least a slight national edge on Biden.
TRUST TRUMP FOR VIRUS INFO?
Most Americans say they don’t trust Pres.Trump to provide accurate information about the coronavirus or what to do during the outbreak.
More voters expect Biden's policies to cause price increases, while they tend to think Trump’s policies would lower prices, something Republicans overwhelmingly believe will happen.
*New*
CBS News Battleground Tracker:
Wisconsin: Johnson and Mandela Barnes in tight Senate race
Evers and Michels even in Gov race
Michigan: Whitmer leads Dixon for Governor
CBS NEWS BATTLEGROUND TRACKER
The First Debate: Voters who plan to watch are tuning in to root for their candidate to see how they do. CBS News surveyed a representative group of likely voters who say they plan to watch tonight.
Words like “frustrated” and “disappointed” top people’s descriptions of his presidency, along with the feeling that he’s “distracted” and not focusing on what they care about.
In Iowa, just over a third of those expressing a candidate choice say they've "definitely" made up their minds. Sanders continues to have the most solidly committed supporters.
CBS News Poll: A majority support keeping Roe v. Wade in place
By 2 to 1, Americans say if overturned, it would be a step backward for women
Read it here:
On what the U.S. should do:
Americans strongly agree on the U.S. engaging in diplomacy with countries in the region and
sending humanitarian aid to Israel; many would also send it to Palestinians.
CBS News Poll: Americans remain divided on impeachment.
Public hearings have done little to sway public opinion, but more say the President deserves to be impeached than say he doesn't.
Dems have consistently backed electing a president by popular vote. Among Reps, support for the popular vote was far lower in 2000 and 2016 after the Dem candidate won the popular vote and the Rep won the electoral college. In other years, most Reps favored the popular vote.
Across the 18 early states, Sanders supporters are more likely than backers of the other leading candidates to say they’ve definitely made up their minds.
By almost three to one, voters think only Trump - and not Biden - is physically healthy enough for the job, despite them being just a few years apart.
And more think only Trump - not Biden - has the cognitive & mental health to serve.
In our April CBS News poll, 77% of Americans said they approved of the U.S. removing its troops from Afghanistan.
There was majority approval across the political spectrum.
What should Trump do next?
There is 12% of the country, and a fifth of Trump's 2020 voters, that want Trump to fight to retake the presidency right now, before the next election.
*New*
CBS News Battleground Tracker: Kelly has edge in AZ Senate race that hinges on Abortion, Economy, Immigration
Gov race deadlocked
Arizona is another battleground where strong opposing forces underpin the race.
President Joe Biden’s job approval, and specifically his job ratings on the economy, inflation, and gas prices, have all risen slightly. Most say gas prices have dropped in their area.
*CBS News Poll of Speech Watchers*
We interviewed watchers immediately after the speech
About eight in 10 who watched approve of Biden’s State of the Union speech
On some of measures we find a lot of partisan agreement, more than we commonly see on other topics these days.
Most in each party say the way troops were withdrawn has gone badly…
Could minds change?
When we ask people what could change their minds about Biden, the answers center on inflation, not legislation. His detractors say they’d think better of him if he manages to get inflation down –more than if BBB passes or if voting rights does.
*New*
CBS News Battleground Tracker: GOP keeps lead for House control
Democrats’ momentum stalls amid economy worries
Dems get some blame as prices rise, but still lead on abortion issue
Read it here:
This economic mood is weighing on the president's overall numbers.
His handling of the economy is as low as it’s been, along with his overall approval too, which has been hovering in the low-40s range for more than a year, now down to 40%.
Trump’s support among national Republican primary voters has now risen to its highest level yet. 69% are backing him.
His legal issues haven't hurt his standing with primary voters and some of his recent controversial statements resonate with many GOP and "MAGA" voters.
66% of Americans support some type of national health plan, but most say it should compete with private health insurance, not replace it – including most Democrats.
Our House Model:
While still in a very good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate. Reps were at 226 in Aug & 230 in July.
"MAGA" Reps want a speaker who is of their "MAGA" movement & don't want someone who'll work with Dems, which sets them apart within the GOP, too.
Desire for a speaker loyal to Trump is much greater among “MAGA” Reps.
COVID TESTING: More than 8 in 10 Americans feel widespread testing is important to containing the virus, including a majority who call it very important.
TURNOUT
Here’s a reason the Dems still trail:
Despite enthusiasm growing, Democrats are still less likely than Republicans to say they’ll definitely vote.
And Biden’s overall job approval is 42%, that’s down one point from last month. It's been hovering in the low 40s for months and that tick down does mark its lowest point yet.
*New*
CBS News Poll: Haley gains on Trump in New Hampshire, while he continues to dominate in Iowa
Haley called “likable” and “reasonable” by more New Hampshire primary voters than rest of field
read it here:
The debt ceiling:
When asked if the debt ceiling should be raised to pay current debts, most say no.
But then we asked those opposed to raising the debt ceiling: what if that means the U.S. defaults?
In that case, most are in favor of raising it.
Re-upping our recent poll:
A big majority of Americans wants to see the abortion pill mifepristone remain available in states where abortion is legal.
Even some who are more generally opposed to abortion hold this view.
More than 8 in 10 Americans don’t think books should be banned from schools for discussing race, for being critical of US history, for depicting slavery, or for political ideas they disagree with.
We see wide agreement across party lines and between White & Black Americans.