Ruo Shui @RuoshuiResearch Twitter profile

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

2 months

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Last Seen Profiles

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@MichaelKantro just wanted to say that the best charts for this cycle came from you and @fundstrat

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

@talmonsmith @pinebrookcap inverted dive in chart form #hope H/T @MichaelKantro

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

14 days

@Climatologist49 @gredelsheimer an orange point?

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

9 days

@EconstratPB never leaving this place

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

2 months

boomers living their best life and have no idea what to do with their money will eventually turn into down payments for houses and senior homes

Bob Elliott

@BobEUnlimited

2 months

The impact is likely materially lower as well. Much of the interest income earnings is concentrated in high income/wealth cohorts who have a high propensity to save rather than spend. Even a 50% spend rate (high) would have only added 50bps to nominal GDP over the last 9 qtrs.

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

not many people believed @robin_j_brooks last year...

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

4 months

We've been warning of an echo of last year's start-of-year price resets that made inflation in early 2023 look much worse than it really was. That's what today's CPI is. Every category is up, just like a year ago. These start-of-year effects are noise. The Fed should ignore them.

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@EconstratPB "Remember. The shape of the yield curve is a policy choice. Powell is trying to thread a firehose through a needle and steepen the curve at a higher level without a recession. Bonkers if he gets it done." i swear i'm not a stalker, i just take notes when David talks

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

1 month

@SoccerMomTrades old enough to remember when he was talking recession while buying up AI

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

14 days

@netcapgirl just wait until public markets realize technology that reduces the marginal cost of filling out administrative forms to almost zero isn't great for administrative positions

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@therobotjames it's about the journey not the destination and the friends you make along the way idk tho. stay hydrated

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@mtkonczal it's worth noting the openings are in lower paying sectors, especially education and health services

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@DiMartinoBooth got rent growth?

Jay Parsons

@jayparsons

4 months

Apartment renters renewing their leases in 2024 are likely to see much smaller rent increases than they saw in any of the prior 3 years. Why? Because operators have a lot less runway on rents right now. We measure this through what the industry calls "loss-to-lease" -- the…

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@talmonsmith @DeanBaker13 @joebrusuelas @EconomicPolicy @WhiteHouseCEA @keds_economist @peterdwilliams @employamerica @PrestonMui think new business creation needs more public discourse

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

@dampedspring I miss 2022 andy...

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

22 days

@EconstratPB you are one of the only good reasons for being on here

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@EconstratPB @KingLurker12 "I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

8 months

@Jimmyjude13 @Citrini7 Weight Watchers fixes this

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@SaaSletter @GavinSBaker @atelicinvest @matt_slotnick similar to everything else, might need to disaggregate by generation

QF Research

@ResearchQf

3 months

2) might guess. More detailed productivity comments in this table. I literally asked almost anyone I've talk to since last summer how much AI improved productivity, personally or at their employers, be it finance, tech or otherwise. Some are v impressive Millennials or Gen Z's.

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 days

alone from start to finish

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

6 months

@talmonsmith @matthewstoller @pinebrookcap would put GS Jan Hatzius in the ring too

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

6 months

the "p" word and the fiscal/monetary dance $SPX $QQQ $SGOV $IEF $TLT $NVDA $MSFT $LLY $NVO $WW

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@Claudia_Sahm now, a clever man would say cut because he would know that only a great fool would reach for pause. i am not a great fool so i can clearly not choose cut, but you must have known i was not a great fool; you would have counted on it, so i can clearly not choose pause

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

2 months

@dollarsanddata might be relevant

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@viewfromahill9 @EconstratPB @wabuffo just in case anyone cares what statement blew my mind

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@EPBResearch fiscal impulse that slows in 2H

Eric Finnigan

@EricFinnigan

4 months

US population grew +3.8M in 2023 - the largest one-year increase in US history. (We think a recent Census estimate of +1.6M growth underestimated immigration flows.) The surge is likely short-lived as its almost all from immigration, which is conditional on policy,…

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@awealthofcs might be relevant

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

@dampedspring @Citrini7 @netcapgirl @wabuffo @jam_croissant @pinebrookcap In no particular order, these people have helped me prepare for March 2024

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

2 months

@robin_j_brooks while i agree the g vs r math could use some improvement, i think the reverse repo chart probably gives some context for the short term issuance

Bill

@wabuffo

3 months

if one zooms in on the pandemic period - its obvious reverse repo (RRP) operations filled the need for more safe cash-equivalent assets. Without the RRP, the US would've seen negative yields. The Bill issuance in 2023 is normalizing things - and not Yellen manipulating rates…

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@conorsen been having similar thoughts

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@vebaccount think the twist is some consumption would be reduced if homes were more affordable

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@Citrini7 @_fabknowledge_ @dylan522p add @asianometry to complete the triforce

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

10 months

@jnordvig The person deciding the composition of treasury issuance, Janet Yellen

Productivity and Inflation - San Francisco Fed

Several recent developments have raised concerns about a productivity slowdown in the U.S. that could slow economic growth and boost inflation. For example, after soaring at the astounding rate of...

www.frbsf.org

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

21 days

@jayparsons something something build

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@awealthofcs use charts not vibes

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@donnelly_brent not exactly the 70s

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@dampedspring K shaped economy

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@Citrini7 @fundstrat it's a good thing when a hedge goes to zero...

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@netcapgirl first principles and curiosity there will always be demand for those

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@netcapgirl be curious, not anxious

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@Claudia_Sahm when people disagree and ask great questions is one thing if a comment detracts from the twitter experience is another thing

Yair Rosenberg

@Yair_Rosenberg

10 months

Last week, I wrote on why blocking is an essential part of any healthy social media site. That Elon wants to eliminate it proves my point: The people who most hate blocking are those who don't want to be disciplined for being anti-social on the internet.

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

6 months

@talmonsmith @matthewstoller @pinebrookcap would put GS Jan Hatzius in the ring too

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

21 days

@salolrac @EconstratPB @zerohedge to a certain extent, social media amplifies extreme vibes and makes it harder to be optimistic long term as people just try to live and improve their lives especially when moderate opinions are silent

Claire Robertson

@CRobertson500

2 months

📢New Preprint!📢 @JayVanBavel , @KareenadelRosa and I go inside the "Funhouse Mirror Factory" of Social Media to explain how SM is distorting our perception of social norms-- by making moderate opinions practically invisible and over-representing the most extreme voices.

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@DianeSwonk there's probably room to improve...

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

@pinebrookcap @mikeharrisNY never seen David in the same room as Jan Hatzius

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

6 days

@hmeisler i care

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

16 days

i give it like 6 months before people complain about "digital twins"

Yuke Zhu

@yukez

16 days

Excited to announce RoboCasa, a large-scale simulation framework of everyday tasks! We use generative AI tools to create diverse objects, scenes, and tasks. Simulation plays a pivotal role in our Data Pyramid for training generalist robots. Open-source at

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

5 months

@carlquintanilla been a full year at this point. nailed the terminal rate in 2023

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

6 months

@talmonsmith @matthewstoller @pinebrookcap would put GS Jan Hatzius in the ring too

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@nope_its_lily can't believe i'm saying $BTC folks are more rationale than bond folks

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

8 months

@wabuffo @TimM44950627 @BobEUnlimited @pinebrookcap Labor is the best analog to the 70s. Not oil. Powell gave his levels for wage growth and productivity (and that was before GPT-4 and GLP-1)

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

10 months

@wabuffo I think wage growth = inflation rate is a misconception. Powell even talked about the level of wage growth consistent with 2% inflation at Brookings last year

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

Whether productivity growth is "real" is probably the most important question for 2024 The key to sustaining the deficit is productivity growth, which provides downward pressure on inflation while maintaining NGDP growth H/T @MarcGoldwein , @NickTimiraos and @kylascan

Kyla Scanlon

@kylascan

7 months

Youtube

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@conorsen real

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@MikeZaccardi imagine asking millennials if they care about risk premiums H/T @fundstrat

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

5 months

@Makeabuck2 think we need the 2024 version already

🖕🏖️ Makeabuck Capital 🛳️🖕

@Makeabuck2

7 months

Fintwit macros 2022: Lot of “people” will lose their 👔👔 this cycle. Fintwit macros 2023: I post my thoughts weekly. Did you read it? Susbtack circle jerk. 🤫🤐😂

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@countdraghula would add japan to the evidence list think it's easier to think of NGDP as a function of productivity+population growth, Cobb-Douglas production function long rates basically follow the Fisher equation of NGDP growth, or real + inflation = NGDP => long rates H/T @EconstratPB

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@Mayhem4Markets think the world would be a better place without engagement metrics...

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

25 days

All right, let's do this one last time

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@EconstratPB might be relevant

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

1 month

@conorsen @calculatedrisk @mikesimonsen + @jayparsons , @odetakushi and @RickPalaciosJr , who are all superb to complete the housing squad

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

13 days

@awealthofcs i think people are overestimating the refi wave just like people overestimated the rate sensitivity of rate hikes people that refi'ed <3 aren't going to automatically refi at 6%

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

2 months

@wabuffo @EconstratPB @dampedspring @BobEUnlimited productivity bulls

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

@BobEUnlimited "Flexible" The Bridgewater Tail: Productivity

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

1 month

@netcapgirl shakes fist at entropy

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

5 months

@Rory_Johnston should add Saudi Arabia oil and Russia nat gas for effect

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

8 months

Probably the most important correlation early this week: $USOIL vs $DXY H/T @Rory_Johnston , @HFI_Research

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@vebaccount think the twist is some consumption would be reduced if homes were more affordable

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

6 months

@netcapgirl @Citrini7 the internet made computation, communication, and data access cheaper. GPTs will compound on what the internet accomplished as the next "network api" networking and HBM are going to be fun to watch in 2024 as people realize personal nodes are coming H/T @ResearchQf , @karpathy

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@_fabknowledge_ when you're so parabolic that you don't need a y-axis

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

@dampedspring Doesn't this ignore supply though?

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

@BobEUnlimited @pinebrookcap Even ignoring real rates...the answer is supply whether that's in the form of apartments/houses, refineries, green energy, data centers, robots, work force increase from employment (empowering disabled and healthier) remains to be seen

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

6 months

@jedimarkus77

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

2 months

@EconstratPB

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

1 month

@coelhorenato @EconstratPB stagflation for ants

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

6 days

@Makeabuck2

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

5 months

@stevehouf might be relevant

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@JosephRReagan @Claudia_Sahm TIL moving averages are woke, especially windowed ones

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@darioperkins outlooks have basically come down to willingness to extrapolate productivity growth

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@andrewglynch @netcapgirl imagine if Travis Kelce proposed to Taylor Swift with a data center

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

5 months

@KrishnaMemani @WarrenPies long end trying to price productivity, growth and inflation at the same time not exactly straightforward

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

5 months

@mikeharrisNY @BobEUnlimited @toiletkingcap reflexivity

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@Claudia_Sahm with sustainable jobs nearby need to build more cities

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 days

@Dcpcooks @MrnllMtt "the asset I most value, aside from health, is interesting, diverse, and long-standing friends"

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

2 months

@NGDP_Advice @EconstratPB while i agree with the sentiment, don't think fed can "change" measures mid tightening cycle also eu rate sensitivity is different than us due to 30yr option

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

5 months

@MayankSeksaria @sonusvarghese @IrvingSwisher @mtkonczal think productivity is the link between growth/inflation and wages add a little population growth then you have long rates @EconstratPB called out Fisher equation of NGDP growth a while ago

Sonu Varghese

@sonusvarghese

7 months

Thoughts on productivity data & why it could be a game-changer (if it continues). Wage growth = Productivity Growth + Inflation + Change in Labor Share Productivity is a big deal, especially for policy 🧵 Blog 👇 @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick 1/

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

24 days

there's that p word again

Eric Wallerstein

@ericwallerstein

24 days

nice breakdown from some Fed economists: The Fed - Why is the U.S. GDP recovering faster than other advanced economies? ()

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@EconstratPB @BobEUnlimited it's making some people cry.

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

5 months

@nope_its_lily go on...

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

Where are we?

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

8 months

There is no analog to the current regime. It has WW2 deficit spending, 70s Middle East conflict, 90s technology capex, and procyclical fiscal that drove up cash buffers and nonresidential jobs What happens if productivity grows before NFP rolls over? $NVDA $MSFT $LLY $NVO $WW

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

8 months

Falling quits rate have historically led to productivity gains in the near-term

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

20 days

@EconstratPB 👊

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@Claudia_Sahm @SamRo real

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@talmonsmith @DeanBaker13 @joebrusuelas @EconomicPolicy @WhiteHouseCEA @keds_economist @peterdwilliams @employamerica @PrestonMui think new business creation needs more public discourse

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

2 months

@besttrousers @talmonsmith drop the "cycle". it's cleaner

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@benjaminMlavine @EconstratPB @MacrostratPB did someone order deja vu...

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

@wabuffo @davevermilion You and @pinebrookcap have been in nonrecessionary slowdown and were basically the only macro accounts tweeting about productivity on Thursday. David's statement below blew my mind a bit when I saw it

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

30 days

@conorsen being able to account for the entire distribution of scenarios is probably going to be remembered well the @whstancil for monetary policy trying to depolarize discussions

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@BBKogan which may improve labor participation in the long run

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

6 months

@TopadoDuran think we know what Yellen thinks

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

10 months

@jnordvig Guess who said this

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@talmonsmith @awealthofcs and @fundstrat

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

28 days

@LoganMohtashami when people find out it's possible to divide debt/credit by disposable income 🤯

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

4 months

@netcapgirl vibe diffusion

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

17 days

@WarrenPies @rev_cap oversimplifies, yet so true

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

20 days

choose your fighter make sure to wake them up every now and then, as people seek activities away from home this summer $QQQ $TLT $XLE $USO

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

7 months

@talmonsmith @pinebrookcap inverted dive in chart form #hope H/T @MichaelKantro

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

2 months

@allstarcharts creative destruction

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

8 days

@stevehouf "no view on nvda"...buys index puts

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@selling_theta

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

1 month

@mark_dow real

Fallacy Alarm

@fallacyalarm

1 month

IMO the biggest mistake of many of MMT's famous proponents is to let this idea be captured politically. Kelton is very guilty of that and has done a great disservice with her book. Mosler is guilty of it, too. The way I understand it, it's not at all a free money printing…

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

5 months

@PaulRiz504 @dampedspring would be funny if cutting 50 bps ended up being net restrictive because consumption was coming from MMF for the wealthy

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

2 months

@SpaceForce623 @toiletkingcap @EconstratPB probably depends on how "full employment" turns out there's ongoing redistribution of labor that's good for the real economy, which is affected by fiscal and demographics

Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

this is continuation

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

3 months

@_fabknowledge_

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Ruo Shui

@RuoshuiResearch

5 months

@ResearchQf probably the same reason thumbnails with flames get clicks the first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club is you don't know you're a member of the Dunning-Kruger club

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