Bill McBride @calculatedrisk Twitter profile

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

6 months

I am at threads At Bluesky @calculatedrisk .bsky.social Blog: Newsletter:

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

Some people are saying it is much of a burden to stay at home, wear masks, and minimize their contacts. Well here are a couple of photos of my dad landing his Corsair with a wheel shot off - after bombing Tokyo. He signed up at 19 after Dec 7, 1941 (will be 98 next month)

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

April Employment Report: 20,500,000 Jobs Lost, 14.7% Unemployment Rate

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Mortgage Broker Lou Barnes: "During the last forty-four years, my days have begun and ended with the mortgage market. Four painful moments stand out. Today makes five."

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

3 years

During and following the 2007 recession, every month I posted a graph showing the percent jobs lost during the recession compared to previous post-WWII recessions. Some people started calling this the "scariest jobs chart ever". Here it is through November 2020.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

This so-called "Scariest Job Chart Ever" will be interesting to follow. This is the percentage of jobs lost during post-WWII recessions.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

We're back!

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Pain

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

@MattWalshBlog My former professor, Sherwood Rowland, was awarded a Noble prize for discovering the role of chlorofluorocarbons in damaging the ozone. Luckily the world stopped using the damaging CFCs - and the ozone has recovered.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

I'm starting to receive some June local real estate market data (embargoed). And the brakes were slammed hard. San Diego is one of the hottest markets and data is not embargoed. Sales were off 35% year-over-year in June. Other markets showing huge inventory increases.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

6.28% two weeks ago.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

One of these is not like the others

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

The most important inflation number currently is core-CPI ex-shelter. This was negative month-to-month for the third consecutive month and is now only up 4.4% YoY.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

The real causes of the bubble were rapid changes in the mortgage lending industry, rating agencies that didn't account for those changes, combined with a lack of regulatory oversight. 1/

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

There have been a few posts recently about the housing bubble not being a “bubble”. This is incorrect, and this long thread (with a few detours) will explain why that view is incorrect. First, what is a bubble? There is no formal definition, however … 1/

Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

@pmarca

2 years

A surprising number of alleged bubbles don't actually hold up as bubbles after the fact. Including, incredibly, the tulip bubble.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

Imagine the US locked down on March 1st as many experts were recommending at the time. Instead of deaths peaking at 2,000 per day, deaths would have probably peaked at 100 to 200 per day - we have the data! And we would have only needed 5% to 10% of the PPE we actually needed.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Divorce is usually one the reasons people sell their homes (death, divorce, unemployment, etc) I spoke with a divorce attorney (friend) yesterday and she told me couples are struggling with what to with their homes because they have 3% mortgage rates and plenty of equity. 1/

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Phoenix Housing Active Inventory (all the way back): June 2022: 15,044 June 2021: 5,866 June 2020: 8,792 June 2019: 15,188 June 2018: 15,851 And rising rapidly.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Zelman: "the builder on our call just threw out that his cancellation rate was 45% ... and I talked to a builder in Orlando yesterday his can rate was 55%"

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

3 years

During and following the 2007 recession, every month I posted a graph showing the percent jobs lost during the recession compared to previous post-WWII recessions. Some people started calling this the "scariest jobs chart ever". Here it is through December 2020.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

Some numbers on unemployment claims: The all time weekly high, Seasonally Adjusted, was 695,000 in Oct 82. The high during the great recession was 665,000 in Mar 09. Based on state reports, those numbers will be obliterated in the report released next week (for this week).

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

I’ve posted these photo before of my dad landing his Corsair on the USS Bennington with one wheel shot off. Notice the brave sailors, on both sides of the ship, running to help my dad. Heroes all. No “suckers” on the Bennington.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

Dad (101 years young) and me

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

In two weeks, when 1,000+ Americans are dying every day, we will wish that today all states had stringent shelter-in-place and been declared Federal disaster areas, the Defense Production Act was used to increase PPE, and a national #testandtrace task force had been established.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

The insurance crisis in Florida is not getting enough attention. A disaster in the making ... and this will impact housing in Florida soon.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Denver real estate in July: Sales off 32% year-over-year Inventory up 82% YoY, up 22% MoM

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

Some local good news. My county reported no COVID deaths in the last 24 hours (Population 3.2 million, Orange County, CA). Our shelter-in-place order was March 17th. And the number of COVID patients in the ICU hasn't grown over the last few days. Maybe some progress.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Black Knight put out an estimate of Refinance candidates today. Basically zero. "Just 472K remain. This is the smallest this population has ever been, since at least 2000, when we began tracking this metric." The Home ATM is closed.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

This is crazy: “The single most important thing we have to do going forward is stop the $600 a week [unemployment] payments,” Heritage Foundation economist Stephen Moore. Uh, this is why most people are paying their rents and retail sales have rebounded

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 72% YoY, Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

On rents, how about this lead today from John Burns Real Estate Consulting: "Rents are set to fall in many areas around the country, which is exactly what the Fed needs to help get inflation under control."

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

Just spoke to a friend; a hospitalist in SoCal. His hospital is out of ICU beds, and they are using another wing as ICU. 90% of COVID ICU patients are intubated and it is getting worse. Rationing both PPE (buying his own) and remdesivir. He is isolating from his family.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

The so-called "scariest job chart ever". This is percent of jobs lost from pre-recession peak for all post WWII recessions.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 months

@ArmandDoma @Noahpinion 14th Amendment: "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside."

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

7 months

There it is!

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

March 23 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

3 years

Random thought: A contributing factor to every financial crisis is some clever new way to do unregulated (or poorly regulated) finance. Like shadow banking in the GFC. Especially if the new way involves leverage. Finance is not the economy, it is just grease for the wheels.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

From a friend at Mammoth, CA today

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

San Diego real estate in July: Sales off 43% year-over-year Inventory up 22% YoY I'll have several local market data in the newsletter on Monday - sales were way off in July.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

A couple of SVB comments: (the 2nd I haven't seen) First, SVB failed due to interest rate risk, not asset default risk (like during the GFC). We've seen this story before, and systemic risk is unlikely. 1/

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

Goldman projects faster recovery under Biden: “the possibility of a large fiscal package under a Democratic sweep skew the risks toward an even faster recovery.” I agree that the recovery will be faster under Biden, but it will still take time - even after a vaccine.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

3 years

Goldman: "The supply-demand picture that has been the basis for our call for a multi-year boom in home prices remains intact. ... Our model now projects that home prices will grow a further 16% by the end of 2022."

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

Mortgage rates dropping. Auto loan rates dropping. Corporate borrowing rates declining. Every time the Fed raises rates - while rates are this inverted - they ease financial borrowing for many sectors. And these are the prime policy transmission sectors.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Realtor .com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 9% Year-over-year It appears that inventory growth is accelerating, as demand declines.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

17 days

Is anyone asking if we are better off today with 3.9% unemployment and 2.8 million jobs added over the last year ... or 4 years ago with 14.1% unemployment? 😆

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

6.13%

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

3 years

My dad was the first Navy pilot to fly a jet (he was a Navy test pilot after WWII). Who checked him out on that jet? Chuck Yeager. His signature is in my dad’s flight book. RIP.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

How does that Sam Cooke song go? "Don't know much about epidemiology, Don't know much about the economy" But I have some serious comments 1/

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

10 months

Spoke to a mortgage servicer today who just did his first Fannie 40-year workout for a delinquent borrower. The interest rate stayed at 3.5% and the borrowers monthly P&I dropped to ~$2,800 from ~$3,200. We weren’t going to see many distressed situations anyway …

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

5 months

Me on threads ... and we have a winner (loser)!

David Sacks

@DavidSacks

5 months

The Fed is preparing a Biden Bailout. It has revised down inflation projections for 2023 and 2024 and is signaling upcoming rate cuts.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Miami area home sales were released today. Sales down 27.4% year-over-year Sales in June 2022: 9,814 Sales in June 2021: 13,523

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

10-year up to 3.3%. That should put 30-year fixed mortgages at 6% for top tier scenarios

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

30-Year Mortgage Rates at 6.30%; 14 Year High

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Highest in 14 years (going above 6.76% will be the highest in 20 years).

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Active inventory changes from recent lows: San Diego: Inventory up 144% from low in Dec 2021 Las Vegas: Up 245% from low in Feb 2022 Denver: Up 412% since Jan 2022.

Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

I'm starting to receive some June local real estate market data (embargoed). And the brakes were slammed hard. San Diego is one of the hottest markets and data is not embargoed. Sales were off 35% year-over-year in June. Other markets showing huge inventory increases.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

@Markzandi Three reasons why prices probably won't crash: 1) Solid underwriting. 2) Prices tend to be sticky downwards unless there are forced sales (See point 1) 3) Inventory is still historically low.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Close to Pre-Pandemic Levels

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 63% YoY, Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

I think the most underreported factor in the house price / rent boom last year was the impact of WFH on new household formation.

Nick Bloom

@I_Am_NickBloom

2 years

The shift to WFH is the largest shock to labor markets in decades. Pre-pandemic WFH was trending towards 5% of days by 2022. Now WFH is now stabilizing at 30%, a 6-fold jump. In America alone this is saving about 200 million hours and 6 billion miles of commuting a week.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

11 months

This context note is false. This isn’t how the calculation is done. I’ve reported it and twitter hasn’t removed it.

President Biden

@POTUS

11 months

My Administration has created more jobs in two years than any previous administration has created in the first four years. It’s no accident. It means our economic plan is working and this is only the beginning.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

3 years

"Scariest Job Chart" Worst of Great Recession: Down 6.29% Now: Down 6.21%

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Decline 24 Percent in 2021

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

Wholesale Used Car Prices Down 14.9% Year-over-year; Largest Annual Decline on Record

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

I don't blame the founders, but the VCs should know better. Was this incompetence? Or did the VCs have an unethical or possibly illegal relationship with SVB? Maybe there is some other explanation, but no one will buy this without understanding this. end/

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Powell: Homebuyers 'need a reset'. Not sure exactly what that means.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

First time ever more "Built-for-Rent" Units started Quarterly than "Built-for-Sale"

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

For the first time ever, essentially no new homes sold were under $200K in November 2021. This is down from 56% in 2002. In general, the under $200K bracket is going away.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 67% YoY, Slightly Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 months

Ronald Reagan is turning in his grave as the GOP abandons Ukraine.

Yaroslav Trofimov

@yarotrof

4 months

Russian advances in Avdiivka, which increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May, are the direct result of acute ammunition shortage — caused by the U.S. Congress withholding further military aid to Ukraine.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Wow. Goldman: "We have revised our forecast to include 75bp hikes in June and July. This would quickly reset the level of the funds rate at 2.25-2.5%, the FOMC’s median estimate of the neutral rate."

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Recession Measures and NBER NBER: "In recent decades, the two measures we have put the most weight on are real personal income less transfers and nonfarm payroll employment." No signs of a recession.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

California existing home sales down 20.9% year-over-year in June. “Excluding the three-month pandemic lockdown period in 2020, June’s sales level was the lowest since April 2008." Active listings in June climbed to the highest level since November 2019 ... up 64.4% YoY.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

They don’t want to sell and pay taxes - and then buy at 5.75% rates. And the spouse keeping the house doesn’t want to refinance at these higher rates. They are looking at HELOCs to cash out the other spouse. The increase in mortgage rates makes this more complicated. 2/

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Realtor .com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 21% Year-over-year Still low, but note the rapid increase in the YoY change, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 21% YoY now.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

30-year mortgage rates closed below 6% today, but end of day bond sell-off will likely push rates above 6% tomorrow AM.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

The largest state Realtor's association forecasting an 8.8% decline in median house prices in 2023 seems like pretty big news.

Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September; CAR Predicts Home Prices to Decline 8.8% in 2023! And a discussion of Mortgage Rates and Treasury Yields Important topics - including the California Association of Realtors house price forecast!

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Goldman “We are raising our Fed forecast to include a 75bp rate hike in September (vs. 50bp previously) and a 50bp hike in November (vs. 25bp previously). We continue to expect a 25bp hike in December, which would take the funds rate to 3.75-4% by the end of 2022.”

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

The key housing questions in 2005 and now. 🧵 There are always several issues, but the key question in 2005 was “Why are lenders making loans that will not be repaid?” 1/

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July Las Vegas sales off 37% YoY. Inventory up 144% YoY.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Home-Flipper Opendoor Hit With Losses in Echo of Zillow Collapse The company, which sells thousands of homes in a typical month, lost money on 42% of its transactions in August …

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Monthly Mortgage Payments Up Record Year-over-year New Homes sales and Single Family Starts to Fall Further

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

What will Happen with House Prices? The data seems to argue for the slow house price growth scenario, but my view is the most likely scenario is house prices will stall in nominal terms and decline in real terms.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

30-Year Mortgage Rates increase to 5.85% Goldman: "The median monthly payment of a 30-year mortgage is up 56% year-over-year"

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

The consensus is for pending sales to be down 1.9% in April. But here is the NAR weekly report … pending sales down 11.7% over the last 4 weeks!

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

7 years

My 95 year old dad just heard about bitcoin and is asking me about it. Hmmm ... my mom was asking me about QQQ in early 2000. Just saying :-)

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

Down a full percentage point in just over 3 weeks.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

California: "Pending home sales declined 30.6 percent in May" "total active listings experienced a gain of 46.7 percent in May, the largest year-over-year growth in at least the last 89 months"

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Decreased 3.6% in First Half of August; Goldman Sees Sharp Decline in User Car PCE Inflation Goldman "we now expect used car PCE inflation to fall from +4% in June to -11% year-on-year in December"

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Progress Residential, one of the largest holders of SF residential properties (new flag): "*Apply to lease a Progress Residential® home between September 30, 2022, and October 14, 2022, and receive $1,000 off your first full month's rent."

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

Friends. This is dire. Cases are skyrocketing. Hospitalizations are up sharply. Deaths have started to increase - and will likely increase significantly. Hospitals in some areas are at capacity. Be careful.

Bill Grueskin

@BGrueskin

4 years

It’s not often that a highly charged internal memo dated Nov. 2 leaks on... Nov. 2.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Housing Inventory June 20th Update: Inventory up 18.5% Year-over-year Inventory is increasing much faster than normal for this time of year (both in percentage terms and in total inventory added). Next week, inventory will likely exceed the peak in 2021.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

Core CPI ex-shelter fell at 1.5% annual rate in November. Rents are falling much faster than the Fed expects - due to the sharp slowdown in household formation - and more supply coming on the market (record units under construction).

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

3 years

A few comments on the economic outlook: All year I've been too pessimistic on the economic recovery. The reason is simple - In my worst nightmares, I never though the US would accept 400,000+ COVID deaths in the first year of the pandemic. 1/

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

30-Year Mortgage Rates Pushing 6% Again

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

There is some nonsense spreading around that few people have died "FROM" COVID. Here is a graph of weekly excess deaths based on data from the CDC When can be pretty sure this is due to the pandemic.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

@2x4caster Just spoke with a major lender - their 30-year fixed rate no points hit 5.00% today.

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

2 years

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Close to Pre-Pandemic Levels

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

4 years

Off topic: In Queen's Gambit, the display board for the final game has an error at the critical moment. The White Queen should be on d3 (not c3 as shown), and bishop on e3 (not d3).

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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk

1 year

Every competent company has a cash management policy. VCs always say they bring more than cash - they bring business expertise. Every regulator and potential purchases will ask: Why did these companies have huge amounts of cash at SVB? 2/

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