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Fabricated Knowledge

@_fabknowledge_

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Simplifying the world of semiconductor investing in the age of AI. Join over 41,000 free readers. It's secular (but cyclical) stupid Read more V

Joined September 2021
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
Semiconductors can be a hard industry to understand, especially for investors without a technical background. Here are a few of the books that really helped me understand semiconductors better. In order of approachability - a 🧵
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
10 months
LK-99 is real. Simulation papers are dropping. replication by a Chinese scientist with video, wow just wow. We are probably a decade away but congrats everyone we just walked through a keyhole for humanity. Things will speed up now.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
10 months
The things that have been mentioned that will be impacted if it can be manufactured: -power transmission -rail guns -maglev -quantum computing? Idk this -fusion, stronger magnets means we shape it better -probably a lot of other stuff yeah this is so exciting and huge
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
10 months
Chamath said all semiconductors are short because of LK-99 Chamath clearly doesn't understand what a "semi" conductor is lmao
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
It’s rare I write something I’m so proud of. Todays post is about why there’s going to be a new Moore’s law at the DC level, and energy densification by liquid cooling is a new vector to compete in. And surprise, NVDA is ahead. I’m very proud of this one
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
4 months
Imagine having a product so good the only alternative is to raise 7 trillion dollars
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
11 days
Guys they make a 57% FCF margin, has any company ever done that at this scale ever? lol
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
Let's tell a little story about how I came to semicap as an investor. At my old firm, we had a list of qualitative things we wanted to see in biz before we bought secular growth oligopolistic+ industry pricing power positive FCF and returns that to shareholders
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 month
It's been brought to my attention that a Morgan Stanley desk just emailed out my tweet as a reason for SMCI down today. To which I have to say ░S░U░B░S░T░A░C░K░I░N░B░I░O░
@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 month
You can search on Baidu but apparently there's been an ability to get H100s from SMCI in China, and that rumor in conjunction with no pre means SMCI gonna have a bad bad time
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
Bank of America went ahead and cut every semiconductor companies EPS this year breath of relief folks
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
Maybe you’re sick of hearing it but NVDA has already thought about, and then executed on the problems that everyone is just starting to figure out. Jensen is so fucking ahead, the industry and people who are betting on mean reversion is chasing the after image.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
4 months
Fun fact - according to most of the semicap players, I believe over 75% of the 1990 era is still with us today. So yeah this take is wildly wrong. Most old generations of chips never go away, and are the reason why electronics are so cheap. Oh and tool reuse is huge!
@aphysicist
Aaron Slodov
4 months
It's wild how bad capex spend is in semiconductors, this machine is basically tossed out as soon as the next gen is developed. Imagine doing this in manufacturing...new CNCs every few years lmao
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 month
You can search on Baidu but apparently there's been an ability to get H100s from SMCI in China, and that rumor in conjunction with no pre means SMCI gonna have a bad bad time
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
Nvidia Earnings Thread: $NVDA Let's see the most important AI company in action. First: *NVIDIA SEES 2Q REV. $11.00B PLUS OR MINUS 2%, EST. $7.18B 1/n
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
11 days
This is probably the most scaleable business in the history of the world. Semiconductors is one of the GOAT industries and it's because of it's business structure. Nvidia grew revenue 18 billion YoY in absolute dollars, and it cost them an incremental 800 million in opex
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
Does anyone realize how screwed Samsung is? They haven't shipped over 100 layer NAND, they lost QCOM as a fab customer, and they lost their own socket to QCOM. I know we are all focused on Intel's demise, but Samsung is decaying at a much more alarming rate if you ask me
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
TSMC reported earnings last night and their results shocked most investors. Why? Buckle up and let's talk about one of my favorite companies in the world: TSMC.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
4 months
So yeah this is good for semiconductors
@tsarnick
Tsarathustra
4 months
Sora performance scales with compute
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
I really think that the dell pivot at Nvidia is wild. SuperMicro was winning too hard, Jensen is like we cannot have that. No company is allowed to be but a spec on our event horizon. It's time to pump Dell servers instead. Jensen does not fuck around lol
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
Huh Intel 4nm pretty close to TSMC 3nm
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
11 days
So Nvidia will prob sell more networking in 1 quarter than AMD will sell accelerators in a year.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
3 months
Jensen's keynote highlights something universally true in computing since the beginning: it's much cheaper to simulate reality than to observe it. AI is the final rendition. The whole keynote is just permutations of that truth. Read more here:
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
We have never seen Intel trade at book value in its long history
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
8 months
I wrote about the Telecom bubble, examining the infrastructure build-up to today's AI infrastructure build-up. I *think* it's not quite a bubble of that magnitude yet, and I think there's some important takeaways between then and now
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
3 months
wait, what is the point of SMCI if Nvidia is going to be selling the entire rack, including liquid-cooled designs. What is left to customize?
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
9 months
Shout out to ARM to updating the graph It cost 29% / 27% more to design at 3nm/2nm It's decelerated from the inflection at 7nm, but it's still costs a staggering amount and is growing much faster than any other costs. EDAs rule
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
3 years
I think the cost increases in semiconductors are not transitory - a thread
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
6 months
I think one of the biggest enablers of Intel's foundry ambitions is that TSMC is doing a ~54% gross margin during the cyclical low in the cycle Implies full margin TSMC is going to be much higher during the high, and that margin is probably Intel's opportunity
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
$INTC is rightfully selling off. Every big cloud has their own CPU, what exactly is the role of an intel x86 CPU today? I don't know!
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
10 months
@Frazier_Cap another replication video
@Andercot
Andrew Côté
10 months
First claimed successful replication of LK-99 Accomplished by a team at the Huazhong University of Science and Technology and posted 30 minutes ago. Why this is evidence: The LK-99 flake slightly levitates for both orientations of the magnetic field, meaning it is not simply a
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
6 months
The single sweetest thing happened today, mom read my newsletter about OpenAI and said it was super clearly written and the best thing she’s read on it. She’s like you got a future in this! And I’m like yeah, I know LMAO. Thanks mom. (She never understood the semiconductors)
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
so my read on the MU call was that almost the entire gross margin lift was probably due to HBM, and that should continue to really crank it for the rest of the year. also 3x wafer intensity? SHEESH!! that is literally better than dreamed, i thought it was just 2x intensity.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
4 months
This is one helluva TAM estimate for transceivers, and if this is right then I think $MRVL is a long
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
5 months
I have been writing about how Automotive is in the worst spot in the cycle for the stocks, and $MBLY confirms how true that is today. "we have become aware of excess inventory at our customers, which we believe to be 6-7 million units of EyeQ® SoCs"
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
I wrote a very important piece about BSPDN, and why Intel might have a chance. Seriously it’s worth a read!
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
17 days
Many are wondering: Yes I am indeed the semiconductor sector head here at fabricated knowledge
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
4 months
Pretty nuts that ARM is now larger market cap than Intel, Qualcomm, Applied materials, etc. Only companies larger are AMD, ASML, Samsung, TSMC, Broadcom, Nvidia. For context its prob the only company w/o a billion in revenue on that list.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
8 months
Yo this chart from Stratechery is fire today source:
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
1/ In the beginning there was Fairchild. I think that is the best way to start. Makers of the Microchip by Christophe Lécuyer is the best book to begin with IMO.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
Warren Buffett just bought a nice little stake in TSMC - stocks up meaningfully after hours. Given his (mostly Ted) recent hit rate I’m kind of stoked
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
3 months
Its called looking forward and knowing a wee bit about memory cycles.
@kakashiii111
Kakashii
3 months
$MU Ladies and Gentlemen, This is Micron Technology, a company valued at $100 billion! In FY2023, they experienced a record loss of $5.84 billion.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
Wrote about backside power delivery, and how it’s the next leg of transistor scaling past GAA. It’s also kind of the big bet vs TSMC that Intel is taking. Pay attention because this is what will matter in the coming years.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
I truly think hyperscalers infra advantage is one of the most overestimated things in the market right now.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
6 days
*ACTIVIST ELLIOTT TAKES $2.5B STAKE IN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS: CNBC well this is interesting
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 month
Wow that is not the AMD prints of old. Barely beat, barely guide up, and we mostly know that there is not much upside on the MI300 number. Get fucked I'll see you at the 200D
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
5 months
Semiconductor ideas: Long: MKSI, AMAT, AWE, ON Short: LRCX, TXN, ADI, MCHP, ARM
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
Jensen's keynote thread: 1/n
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
I don't think we have *ever* seen 52% QoQ growth from a revenue base of ~7 billion. That is completely unprecedented. For context, Intel's revenue next quarter is going to be like ~11bil. They passed them in 1 quarter. Food for thought, they are guiding to a beat no?
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
3 months
btw I really think that Nvidia should be the most valuable company in the world - 100 billion in EBIT is not that insane in like CY25, and that would be approximately MSFT's EBIT but growing at a muchhhh faster rate Also it's incredible to me that Nvidia is doing ~75s GMs
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
27 days
I really hope people take this as being bad for NVDA
@zerohedge
zerohedge
27 days
*APPLE IS DEVELOPING AI CHIPS FOR DATA CENTERS: WSJ
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
3 months
Im going to be honest with you, I really don't think that NVDA going to stop growing revenue anytime soon. I think the real test will be next quarter, 1Q with the guide into 2Q. At that point in time there will be b100 to talk about, but they continue to accelerate results guys
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
6 months
Let me break it down for you: deflation? yeah that's good for semis inflation? also good for semis, they outpace it and are commodities low growth? good for semis, gonna grow faster high growth? yeah that's gonna be good for semis All 4 quadrants are buy
@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
6 months
$SOXX always wins is the true lesson
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
4 months
Fun graph I made today
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
26 days
forgive me father because i sort of want to buy INTC (don't do it)
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
5 months
I wrote my 2024 outlook at the last possible second but I wanted to discuss two big parts from my piece First: I'm this is AI's adolescent years. Growing pains and growth spurts are to be expected, and I think election risk is real. Second: MEMORY IS GOING TO MATTER A LOT
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
4 months
Wrote my first earnings post: Think TSMC was good, SMCI means NVDA beats, TXN sucks, AWE is cheap and finally did a good job, LRCX crushed it and HBM is on fire, but there’s a lot of great disclosures. More takes are coming very soon! Stay tuned!
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
You don’t make a task force if yields are good, allegedly MI300 ramp is slowed because yield is bad at Sammy
@dnystedt
Dan Nystedt
2 months
Samsung has made its 400-person task force for HBM (high bandwidth memory) chips a permanent office led by Sang-joon Hwang, directly under the president of Samsung’s memory business, The Elec reports. The new HBM team will focus on stabilizing production yields of HBM3E and
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
"Chips have more than 50 miles of interconnect wiring"
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
9 days
Where does this bring you? Back to me. Everyone will be a semiconductor analyst hah
@borrowed_ideas
Mostly Borrowed Ideas
10 days
TSMC: The Most Mission-Critical Company on Earth Just published my Deep Dive on $TSM.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
3 months
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
finally reading the Broadcom day and I think that they are playing their hand well. Hey we will let you bring whatever you want, make sure it scales up w/ ethernet. (Android-ish) meanwhile Nvidia is pursuing system integration and software lock in (Apple) TWT who wins!
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
10 months
Everywhere you look, the market is saying that unit growth in smartphone is completely done. Smartphone is the new PC market guys.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
11 months
This is the Fabricated Knowledge Semiconductor Earnings Season Preview
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
5 months
I think I have a banger on industry competition in AI, coming out on Tuesday as a free post.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
7 months
Agree / disagree with the placements?
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
Marvell’s industry analyst day, they updated one of the GOAT charts
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
The man the myth the legend. Made the law so to speak, and literally changed the world. Moore’s law has always been an aspiration of the industry, and the continued improvement has made all of our lives better. R I P.
@intelnews
Intel News
1 year
Gordon Moore, Intel Co-Founder who set the course for the future of the semiconductor industry, has passed away at the age of 94.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
I need to interact with that guy who told Me MU is an obvious short again
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
honest to god i am pretty convinced about #5 for something
@justbrosef
Global Bagholding Opportunities IV L.P.
6 years
Semis.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 month
This is probably the most interesting graph I've seen this earnings season. Memory test has been pretty much range bound for a long time, and it actually might be breaking out. 1B +/- from ~18 > 22. Now 1.3+ ? This is the sea shift tbh.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 month
bumping this. Managed to have this ready to go at the peak, and SOXX is down ~15% since then. At some point I'm a massive buyer, but I'll make sure to tell you when. 😘
@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
3 months
Wrote about factors and semiconductors - and why its time to take a break. ALSO prob time to buy up the losers (analog shorts CANCELLED)
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
I wrote about the 3 headed hydra of competition that Nvidia has And a basic overview of LLMs/ semiconductors that power them (NVDA!) I really think that the 3 headed hydra is a powerful lense of competition for Nvidia
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
7 months
Coatue you're missing this one company lil guy named Nvidia for AI Semis
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
Everyone is fucking talking about the multiple and no one is forward looking, it feels like I’m taking crazy pills. When earnings like 2x next quarter yoy is everyone going to be surprised pikachu?
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
7 months
ILYA SIGNED IT TOO
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
By the way - the first episode of Transistor radio w/ @dylan522p and I came out yesterday. Listen in if you want to hear a conversation about why TSMC's earnings matter for the industry at large.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
i get annoyed when people call my newsletter niche - dude semiconductors are not niche. It's in every single electronic device, the ones you stare at for 5 hours a day - yeah
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
7 months
Okay intel earnings thread 2 more customers on 18A, 2 customers for AI packaging, 6 more on the way.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
3 months
Yeah new semianalysis post confirms what I thought, groq is only useful for a small subset of the market (small models inference) and won’t ever make a lot of sense for big models. “Is Groq NVDA top?” Is an insane take, but shows you more about everyone’s desires than reality
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
love the 0 axis graph
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
I cannot believe this, like the actual worst cycle since 08/09, going to prob make a record for memory pricing decline since 90s and we are going to whip out on the other side to a fucking AI bubble The entire group gross margin has expanded like 500bps and it’s floor prob
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
5 months
Yo this is an amazing graph!!!! I wrote about semiconductor pricing getting a lot better in like 2021, but this is historic. Stringing along multiple years of positive growth is unheard of in price
@BernsteinRasgon
Stacy Rasgon
5 months
How much has pricing contributed to semiconductor industry growth in recent years? Would you be surprised to learn the answer is “More than all of it?” Our note today discusses this (for institutional clients only):
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
1 year
Simping for Andy at Arista, truly a legend. It’s insane that he’s still at the booths pounding the pavement
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
4 months
Fun little story in this, TSMC is clearly choosing Japan as number 2 geography, given the recent 20bil fab
@JosephPolitano
Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈
4 months
Semiconductor production has rebounded among major Asian exporters after taking a steep dive in 2022—Japanese production is at record highs, while Taiwanese and Korean production are closing in on prior peaks
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
*INTEL UNVEILS NEW AI ACCELERATOR PROCESSOR CALLED GAUDI 3 *INTEL SAYS NEW GAUDI 3 PRODUCT OUTPERFORMS NVIDIA'S H100 CHIP nice bit of news needed
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
Every month the TSMC data comes out, and the revenue accelerates, and the stock goes down more. It's pretty wild to see it month after month
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
This is going to flip next year - 2023 AMD datacenter is going to absolutely demolish INTC.
@SKundojjala
Sravan Kundojjala
2 years
In data center, Intel's share losses will continue. AMD's share will hit 30% in 4Q22. Intel saw steady share losses through 2021 and 2022.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
It's almost exactly what I thought it would be. Gaming revenue was $2.04 billion, down 44% sequentially and down 33% from the prior year. Data Center revenue was $3.81 billion, up 1% sequentially and up 61% from the prior year.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
11 months
you're a recent AI startup with a new LLM model, you think you got a shot. The problem is you need a lot of GPUs, so you go raise a billion in capital and you throw it into GPUs, in the hopes of figuring out a business model to eventually buy more GPUs this is triple-ordering
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
10 months
…. I love analysis like this lmao Means that for at least a hot second I still got a chance
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
11 months
I wrote about TSMC. There really is something for everyone this earnings report at TSMC. AI is only 6% of revenue but should grow at 50% CAGR? WFE spending is moderating? Oh I have a whole diatribe about why EUV intensity is past us and the 2024 EUV orders gap is worrying.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 years
5/ Now I think it's time to get a bit more specific. In particular I think it's time to read Fabless by @DanielNenni / @paulmclellan Fabless IMO is one of the best books of the bunch, and the last chapter's predictions hold up shockingly well.
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
2 months
Love this quote from AVGO AI day, truly its bundle and rebundle all the way down. Nvidia is pursuing the mainframe, which I think some view as this dinosaur technology, but at the time was the 800 pound gorilla. Which thesis wins? T B D Before I get started, a couple of things
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
4 months
ARM after hours price is just messy. Pretty much there was a huge short interest into this quarter, and I think its just a float. DO NOT SHORT LOW FLOAT STOCKS. Think of it this way, its all supply and demand. Almost no supply, some demand. When that changes... do something
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@_fabknowledge_
Fabricated Knowledge
6 months
Feel weirdly qualified for a take on this. The second method is how I run this newsletter, and while not perfect it is how to SEND research. I’m going to write a quick thread on da process:
@dalibali2
dalibali
6 months
There’s 2 ways people learning/work: (1) research, read first then write. (2) just start writing. I’ve always been the latter. Found it easiest to just start doing and it’ll expose what I don’t know and help structure thoughts more.
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