Senior Director of Federal Budget Policy for
@amprog
. Formerly: OMB46, Transition46,
@SenateBudget
(Murray & Sanders). CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal acct.
But these deficit and debt worries are themselves overplayed. Even as debt increases, total national assets are increasing faster. The country is not overleveraged, and we are not net indebted. We are leaving our children more and more as time goes on, not less.
The Republican Party benefits enormously from the fact that, if you explain what their policies are, no one believes you, on the grounds that “no one could possibly support that.”
Marshall is going to put every senator on record. If that amendment is adopted, it would force an automatic nearly 10% cut to:
-NIH’s cancer & stroke research
-the program that helps ensure our drinking water is safe
-nutrition 4 pregnant moms & babies
-most education
-lots more
Hard to explain the reality of pre-ACA unless you lived through it, but:
Before the ACA, if you got sick, health insurers could decide to just not cover you. Many people could not get health instance. An estimated 25-50% of America had pre-existing conditions. Obama fixed that.
@EoinHiggins_
@Delta
Workers covered by union contracts earn 13.2% more, after adjusting for education, occupation, & experience.
Median usual weekly earnings for full-time work is $898, so that’s $44,900 working 50 paid weeks a year.
13.2% of $44,900 is $5,927, far more than $700.
Join a union.
House GOP is demanding - or else they’ll shut down the government - that the following be cut 27%:
-Social Security Administration
-Nutrition assistance for poor newborns
-Money to ensure our drinking water is safe
-Most federal education money
-Federal cancer and stroke research
Good news, everyone! I have joined the Biden-Harris administration as Advisor to the Director of OMB.
A budget is a moral document that forces us to prioritize our values. I’m excited to push with all my being for a less unfair, more compassionate society.
@DanRiffle
This is also a point-in-time rarity. The moon is moving away from the earth at I think 1 cm per year, & in doing so slowing down the rotational speed of the earth. Way long ago, the moon was much bigger and so you wouldn’t have been able to see the corona (if we’d been around), &
Yesterday, CBO released a working paper showing that enrolling kids in Medicaid half pays for itself mostly due to those kids ending up with higher earnings.
And CBO said that, if you offset the costs, the net present value of future deficits is reduced by $2 for every $1 spent.
Senator Bob Casey has introduced a bill to automatically enroll all children in Medicaid from birth through age 18.
The Medicaid for Every Child Act would mean that no child would ever have to go without health care in this country.
@PreetBharara
It's really, really, really, really important that we never tire of helping people, no matter what. No matter what people believe or do, they're still people, and they still deserve food, shelter, and health.
If you look at stimulus packages, you notice this pattern. Bipartisan support when there’s a Republican president, but only Dem support when there’s a Dem president.
Bipartisan support under Bush
Almost no Rs under Obama
Bipartisan support under Trump
No support under Biden
Democrats could have taken this view in March 2020 (no helping the country in an election year), but instead approved a COVID aid package that was many, many times more generous than Republicans would have approved had the shoe been on the other foot.
Trump's budget calls for $3.5 billion in cuts to WIC, which provides food assistance to infants, toddlers, and pregnant moms. WIC serves over 6 million people and is incredibly effective.
I testified before the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Oversight.
One new stat I featured: the tax gap is bigger than the fiscal gap.
What does this mean? If, starting tomorrow, everyone voluntarily paid all the taxes they legally owed, debt/GDP would be declining indefinitely.
The three times the debt limit was suspended under President Trump were all done enacted without precondition, with major bipartisan support. In fact, Speaker McCarthy voted for all three of them. The only thing that changed is who the president is. It’s a manufactured crisis.
Remember last wk at SOTU Pres Biden claimed he lowered the deficit Well Congressional Budget Office estimates deficits btwn 2021 & 2031 will actually b 38% HIGHER than projected when Biden took office
Trump deliberately withheld standard info about his budget until today, a week after it came out, making most detailed analysis impossible until now. Here is a new thread on Trump's budget, which I'll be updating throughout the day.
His budget calls for cutting SNAP by 30%.
If Rs had wanted, they could’ve funded a wall through budget reconciliation with 51 votes & left a reserve fund in the budget resolution to cure all budget points of order. They didn’t because they never actually cared about the wall; it’s just a racist political tool for them.
Vaccines allow us to deviate from what’s “normal” and achieve child mortality rates of under one percent instead of having more than a third of kids die before turning five.
As chair of the RSC, Johnson spearheaded budgets resolutions that called for ~$2 trillion in cuts to Medicare, $3 trillion in cuts to Medicaid+ACA, & ~$750 billion in cuts to Social Security.
Relevant to Collins on Approps, he called to immediately cut NDD ~50%. Unfathomable.
I asked Susan Collins what it would be like to work with Johnson on spending issues and she said she doesn't know him, but was going to Google him this morning
I don't think the distribution of income is well understood in the US.
For individuals, the middle 60% of incomes range from $22,405 to $95,042 a year.
If you make more than $95,042 a year, you're in the top 20%.
If you make more than $135,605 a year, you're in the top 10%.
This is an extremely bad bill, designed to sound good. It's a tool for Republicans to cut all discretionary programs (Head Start, Section 8, WIC, LIHEAP, etc.) every single year without looking like they're cutting them.
@isaiah_bb
Isi would you rather your doctor were some textbook reading NERD who aced all his courses because he spent all his time in the LIBRARY like a LOSER, or a ripped football star who flunked out because he spent all his time having SEX instead of studying
I don't understand how people aren't furious about this. Zinke gave a major Puerto Rico contract to his buddy who'd never undertaken anything close to that size before. He was being investigated for that & a bunch of other corrupt things, & now that IG has been fired w/o warning.
They are eliminating oversight: White House replacing Dept of Interior Inspector General who is investigating Zinke with Trump campaign loyalist. *Did not tell the Inspector General that she was being removed*
I simply do not understand why more people aren't furious that Republicans deliberately underfund the IRS to help rich people cheat on their taxes.
Since coming into power, Republicans have forced real per capita cuts to the IRS of THIRTY percent!
In total, the Trump budget calls for $84 billion in cuts to disability programs. How cruel can you be? Taking aid away from disabled people, taking food away from starving people, health care away from sick people, taking shelter away from impoverished people.
FTC banned new non-compete clauses for all workers and rendered unenforceable all existing non-competes for workers below the level of senior executives!
Incredibly important and directly good for workers and their earnings.
And Republicans decided to switch from smaller spending to bigger spending as soon as it was politically expedient - that is, as soon as there was a Republican president.
McConnell even told Trump "no politician has ever lost an election for spending more money."
Yes the last time we went through this hostage negotiation we got a long period of grinding austerity that slowed growth, kept unemployment higher than it needed to be, and created tons of unnecessary misery for Americans.
New must-read post from
@MattBruenig
and
@PplPolicyProj
.
For just 0.85% of GDP, we could eliminate poverty.
The cost of the GOP tax cuts? 0.94% of GDP.
Let me reiterate this. For less than the cost of the GOP tax cuts, we could permanently eliminate poverty. And we must.
For $657 billion, we could, for the next decade:
-completely eliminate child poverty
-give every person whose family makes under $125k free college
Instead, the GOP is zeroing in on a policy that overwhelming benefits the extremely well-off and barely helps the most vulnerable.
Here's my Trump FY2020 budget thread, which I'll be updating throughout the day.
To start us off, the Trump budget calls for $220 billion in cuts to SNAP. SNAP gives on avg just $1.40/meal. It lifts 8 million out of poverty. And Trump would eviscerate it.
It just couldn’t be more clear. Speaker McCarthy is saying, “if you don’t give me enough changes from status quo that I want, then YOU want a default,” when the White House’s position has just been “hey let’s not default.”
On it’s face, this is a ludicrous position to take.
McCarthy says they are still “far apart.” He said: “Seems like they want a default more than a deal.”
McCarthy added they need a deal by "this weekend” in order “to have a timeline to be able to pass it in both houses."
Speaker McCarthy's big red line is that we MUST impose work requirements that don't actual lead to more work but do make the process so cumbersome that millions of people fall out of the program due to red tape - or else he'll force us to default. (h/t
@besttrousers
)
🚨NEWS — MCCARTHY DIGS IN —
@SpeakerMcCarthy
says the debt limit deal MUST include something on work requirements. He said it’s a red line for him.
Meeting at the White House at 3p today.
This is right, & I’d add that the Biden admin permanently & unilaterally increased SNAP benefits by ~25%.
This in no way discounts the suffering experienced as pandemic benefits ended, but the admin’s work has unequivocally been in pursuit of a significantly stronger safety net.
Biden did not cut the pandemic welfare programs. Congress enacted aid programs on a temporary basis. Biden then attempted to enact the largest expansion of the welfare state in a half century. The Senate refused to pass it.
Meanwhile, the AG & FDA bill they are trying to pass would simultaneously make abortion harder while cutting nutrition assistance for poor newborns. Incredibly cruel.
Marshall is going to put every senator on record. If that amendment is adopted, it would force an automatic nearly 10% cut to:
-NIH’s cancer & stroke research
-the program that helps ensure our drinking water is safe
-nutrition 4 pregnant moms & babies
-most education
-lots more
2. Marshall Motion to Commit (year-long CR plus Israel aid)
3. Lee Motion to Commit (year-long CR)
4. Cruz Motion to Commit (H.R.2)
5. Passage of H.R.7463 (as amended, if amended) (60-vote affirmative threshold)
Congressman Gaetz says Republicans are holding Democrats and the country hostage in order to extract extreme cuts to the part of the budget that funds nutrition for newborns and pregnant moms, cancer research, and grants to make sure our drinking water is safe.
More from Gaetz, who rejects any debt limit compromise with the White House: “I think my conservative colleagues for the most part support Limit, Save, Grow, & they don't feel like we should negotiate with our hostage.”
Default would almost certainly throw US into recession
The ACA opened up health insurance to tens of millions of otherwise uninsurable Americans. And this coincided with a dramatic decrease of excess cost growth in health care.
Remember that infrastructure plan Trump touted, where he said that he was investing $199 billion into infrastructure?
He cuts transportation by $286 billion. And this doesn't even include other kinds of infrastructure like housing. This is why the admin withheld this info.
New from me:
1) Long-term projections of the primary deficit fell every single year of the Biden administration
2) They fell SO much that long-term projections of debt are lower now than PRE-covid projections, even though we took on trillions of new debt
It's critically important that people know that unemployment insurance eligibility and benefit size were both expanded enormously for four months in response to coronavirus (thank you, Senate Democrats). If you lost your job (or hours, if your state has work share), sign up.
Here's my Trump FY2019 budget thread, which I'll be updating throughout the day.
To start us off, the Trump budget calls for $213 billion in cuts to SNAP. SNAP gives just $1.40 per meal. It lifts 8 million out of poverty. And Trump would eviscerate it.
Clarification: they’re calling to cut the administration that runs Social Security and ensures checks go out on time, in the right amount, to the right people by 27%, not the benefit level.
Of all the Biden promises, the one I was most skeptical of was his ability to pass meaningful bipartisan legislation. Thought he stood zero chance. And I couldn’t have been more wrong!
-Infrastructure law
-CHIPS & Science
-PACT Act
-Postal reform
-Gun safety bill
Biden direct-to-camera in a new video: “Look, I’m not a young guy. That’s no secret. But here’s the deal. I understand how to get things done for the American people.”
One of the other realities of pre-ACA was junk health plans. People thought they bought great plans, but then when they got sick, it turned out the plans barely covered you. Problem now. MUCH bigger before.
Importantly, the ACA raised the actuarial value of health insurance.
“If we don’t get what we want... I will shut down the government. ... I am proud to shut down the government for border security, Chuck. ... I will be the one to shut it down. I’m not going to blame you for it."
-Donald Trump, December 11, 2018
Here's just the 10-year totals. As is so often the case, Trump offers with his left hand and then takes it and more away with his right. Do not trust him or his administration. Do not report at face value what he says about his budget. They always mislead and lie.
We stopped two truly disastrous Fed nominees. I hope Trump’s next nominees are good. A really good Fed is good for everyone, & especially vital for low-income workers. Thanks to the folks who cranked out article after article on why Stephen Moore & Herman Cain were deeply unfit.
NEW: Trump admin officials are now acknowledging Steve Moore doesn't have the votes 4 confirmation.
GOP Whip Sen. Thune predicts Moore will withdraw. "I think there will be probably some more info about that nomination in the next day or so”
@seungminkim
The IRS is out with its newest estimates of the tax gap - the amount of taxes legally owed that people *don't* pay each year.
How big is it? $7.8 TRILLION over the decade. People & businesses will steal nearly $8 TRILLION from the govt over the decade.
@eisingerj
@chrislhayes
New graph showing the tax cut didn't pay for itself.
The black line shows projected revenues before the tax bill. The red line shows projected revenues after enactment. The blue line shows the newest projection. The red/blue lines are lower because we're getting less revenue.
This 8% cut would include:
-the Social Security Administration
-nutrition assistance for newborns
-federal money to ensure our drinking water is safe
-most of our federal education money
-federal cancer and stroke research
On the table is a 30 DAY funding extension at an 8% cut to non-defense, non-veterans federal bureaucracy… something we’ve never been able to do… that would include, importantly an 8% cut to DOJ funding as a first step to stop its abuses… along with border security… (2/5)
So many people were trapped in their bad insurance (and sometimes that meant being trapped in your bad job) because, if they ever left, they'd become uninsurable. It was a horrendous system.
@BBKogan
My personal insurance I'd had since I was 25 had slowly increased in price until it jumped up to $1500 per month. I couldn't switch to cheaper insurance because of a preexisting condition. What saved me was going on a corporate plan, but I could rely on ACA a few years later.
I really don’t think there’s enough national focus on what the North Carolina Republican Party is doing. If we saw another country doing this, we’d call them a sham democracy.
The NC GOP has staged a deluge of political and legislative coups this decade to maintain & consolidate power regardless of election results. How do we even keep up or summarize all of it? [1/]
22 Senate Rs just voted for this budget. It calls for cuts so deep, every single program that isn't Social Security would have to be cut by 51%.
It means cutting Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, NIH, and everything in HALF, all while cutting taxes for the rich.
And 22 Rs voted for it.
We're going to be voting on cloture for Senator Paul's budget resolution on Monday. His budgets are, without fail, the most poorly constructed I've ever analyzed.
Does anyone truly want someone so deeply careless making any decisions for them?
Here's a graph showing deficits over time, and showing the contributions of certain policies. If not for the Bush & Trump tax cuts, we'd be running a primary surplus. Republicans pass huge tax cuts and then call to cut food stamps and disability eligibility "because deficits."
Because the admin has withheld information, we can't yet calculate percent cuts, but as you can see, those SNAP cuts are large and immediate. We're talking on the order of a 1/4 cut to SNAP. How disgusting. I don't care who you are or what you've done. No one should go hungry.
The budget cuts $178 billion in cuts to transportation. And this doesn't include cuts to things like water, broadband, VA, and energy. This means that he's giving $200 billion with his left hand but taking away that much with his right. The infrastructure investment is a lie.
Section 8 helps over 3 million households afford rent. It is already drastically underfunded - roughly only 1/4 of eligible people are on it. Trump would cut it by 13 percent, kicking struggling families out into the streets.
In total, there are 26 states, plus the highest elected Republican official, all calling to ignore the Supreme Court, as well as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.
Honestly more wild: the US and UK more or less grew at the same pace from 1955 until the end of 2007.
Starting with the Great Recession, everything changed. And then got worse with the COVID recession.
Can't overstate the importance of going big on fiscal.
Absolutely wild to see the divergence of US and UK real GDP per capita.
After adjusting for inflation, US GDP per capita is 17% higher than it would have been if we'd instead grown/shrank like the UK following since 2007Q4.
@SenSanders
@iteptweets
Trump's budget calls to cut the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention by one-third by the final year, $23 billion over the decade. If one were looking create a public health crisis, this, along with the cuts to NIH, isn't necessarily a bad way to go about it.
Over 6 million households receive LIHEAP, the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps poorer households heat their homes in the winter and cool their homes in the summer. The Trump budget would eliminate it entirely.
Reminder: Rs could’ve built a wall through budget reconciliation - even *in their tax bill* - if they’d felt like it (they’d just have needed the correct reconciliation directive).
They didn’t because they never cared. The idea that it’s an emergency 2 years later is laughable.
I'm confused. Why are we shutting down *our* government because Mexico refused to pay for the wall? Shouldn't we be trying to shut down Mexico's government instead?
Do not get lost in a sea of despair. Do not become bitter or hostile. Be hopeful, be optimistic. Never, ever be afraid to make some noise and get in good trouble, necessary trouble. We will find a way to make a way out of no way.
#goodtrouble
After adjusting for inflation, the average person makes more now than in 2019 and has more in savings.
This is particularly true for the bottom 10% of earners.
This has caused a historic reduction in inequality that has undone 40% of the growth in wage inequality since Reagan.
The Senate Democrats are out with a proposal that would raise the incomes of 114 million people. Of those, 29 million would be lifted out of poverty or closer to the poverty line. The bill would cut deep child poverty by 37%. Nicely done,
@SenSherrodBrown
!
@JasonKander
Thank you for being open and publicly vulnerable. Even in workin to take care of yourself, you’re helping others. Thank you for all you’ve done. I hope you’re able now to get the care you need.
Trump would cut NASA by 22 percent - over $30 billion. With this, the EPA cuts, the NSF cuts, the CDC cuts, the NOAA cuts, the USGS cuts, etc., his budget would destroy long-term investments.
The Trump budget calls for $25 billion in cuts to Social Security. At least $10 billion of that comes from Social Security Disability Insurance, but since they didn't give us the backup baseline and budget runs they always give us, we won't know for sure for a while.
When I left the staff of the Senate Budget Committee, folks asked me what my best experience on the committee was. It was the day we won on ACA repeal.
Here's where I wrote about it in my Reddit AMA:
There was strong bipartisan support for a clean debt limit increase under President Trump and President Bush. Saying, “Well, there aren’t the votes now,” doesn’t make the point you think it does - it only shows that Republicans stop supporting it when Democrats are president.
Our policy director
@smithmachine
spotted something that confirms the administration withheld this information. The table that we got today was dated 11 days ago. But when we put out a request a week ago, they refused to give it to us. How inappropriate.
Look at this graph from 2001. CBO thought that by 2034, Medicare and Medicaid would cost around 9.5% of GDP.
Right now, CBO thinks Medicare and Medicaid will cost 6.4% of GDP in 2034 - EVEN THOUGH we created Medicare Part D and Medicaid expansion and did the Doc Fix in between.
The ACA opened up health insurance to tens of millions of otherwise uninsurable Americans. And this coincided with a dramatic decrease of excess cost growth in health care.
Every single Republican senator who voted against ARRA voted for the third coronavirus supp. It was a critical bill that will greatly ameliorate suffering, but it really sucks that Republicans actively worked to sabotage the economic recovery under Obama.
Beyond leaving out households below $15k, this graph is a direct lie. Roughly 82% (24 million) of households making between $15k and $30k get zero benefit under their proposed standard deduction increase, and a bunch more don’t get the full benefit.
After adjusting for timing shifts (both from debt cancellation and other things), the deficit grew from 3.5% of GDP to 7.5% of GDP.
Roughly 75% of that was revenue decreases. And of the remaining 25%, more than half was interest.
We have a revenue problem, due to tax cuts.
CBO says rescinding the $14.3 billion of the IRS money would allow rich people to cheat on an additional $26.8 bn of taxes, for a net deficit increase of $12.5 bn from rescinding the IRS money.
This is an underestimate because it doesn’t take into account deterrence effects.
The creation of the Federal Reserve and the move towards using heavy fiscal policy has been one of the best changes in all of US history.
Strong monetary & fiscal policy as a team hugely decrease human suffering, & the gold standard balanced budget folks couldn’t be more wrong.
Happy Tax Day! The US is an *extremely* low-tax country. We bring in the equivalent of $36 trillion less than the average EU country in a decade. I love paying taxes because more than 70% of every non-interest dollar the government spends goes directly to helping people.
The Trump budget would destroy Medicaid. It calls for $1.5 trillion in cuts, growing to a 1/3 cut. Some of that would be put back into a bad block grant structure (it's hard to flesh out everything going on because they didn't give us the backup materials we normally get).