Hey folks, I have a new big paper up at
@niskanencenter
.
It's about the weird way that the USA finances our unemployment insurance system and how it is RUINING THE LABOR MARKET.
Feel like every twitter fight I'm seeing is just people zooming out further and further on a time series plot. Why not just zoom out all the way to start?
The weirdest thing about these posts is the insistence that public school should teach stuff that is, by definition, ephemeral.
There is no "taxes" skill you can learn at 15 and apply at 30 (that isn't just "literacy").
Gen-Z is losing their minds in their first recessionโฆ
Iโve been through three of these as an adultโฆ they suck, they last a couple of years, but they make you stronger.
Just focus on adding skills and put in 2 more hours a day than your hardest working peers and youโll comeโฆ
This is interesting, but I would not be surprised if stuff like this ends up giving managers *distorted* views of individual productivity that actually makes management worse.
Americans have been wasting billions a year on cold medicines like Sudafed & Benadryl with the active ingredient phenylephrine, despite conclusive evidence they don't work. But a report published yesterday may finally lead to the removal of these drugs from pharmacy shelves. 1/6
Again, one reason "the vibes are off" is that lots of people prefer a world where people are desperate for jobs and willing to take anything they can get.
You used to be able to reliably pull off any highway in America and get yourself a hotel room. Even at 2 AM. Now with nobody working, I have to stop long drives by 9 PM at the latest to make sure someone is at the desk. Little things like this keep adding up and its getting worse
This is what the world looked like before mass immigration, widespread racial and gendered guilt activism, and before bankers had totally screwed the economy for their own gain. People were just allowed to be themselves, and they did fun, wholesome things for their own sake.
Yall some girl left her NEW BORN INFANT BABY in a stroller outside the dispensary my husband works at to buy weed. Children shouldnโt even be on the premises.
They called the cops and banned her.
If you canโt get a baby sitter to go buy weed then you canโt buy weed.
"63% of Americans do not have $500 in the bank to pay for an emergency healthcare bill."
This is inaccurate.
Median household net worth is $192k, including $8k in checking accounts.
Last year, the richest 0.05%, those who own at least $100 million in wealth, made a combined profit of $8.5 trillion on their investments that will go untaxed. Meanwhile, 63% of Americans do not have $500 in the bank to pay for an emergency healthcare bill.
We need a wealth tax.
It's 2013. Unemployment is 7.4%. CPI is 1.5%. The main impediment holding back the economy is that workers are too lazy.
It's 2022. Unemployment is 3.5%. CPI is 8.2%. The main impediment holding back the economy is that workers are too lazy.
People talk about how the US has become a "low trust society" but when I was a kid you had to tell the cashier how much butter to put in your popcorn.
Today, the popcorn butter dispenser is open to all.
The YIMBY concept of โfilteringโ makes 0 sense to me. Iโve spent the last 20 years in two of the most expensive cities in the US for housing. I have not once heard someone say โI would gladly move into a more expensive apartment just because itโs nicer.โ
It's outrageous that the Federal Reserve is putting $1.5 trillion into capital markets.
With that money, the Federal Reserve could give every American a $3,000 loan right now, that they would need to pay back tomorrow morning.
As a lifelong Celsius guy who has been reluctantly dragged into Fahrenheit over the last decade I think โscaled to human experienceโ is in fact the biggest thing Fahrenheit has going for it (and same goes for most imperial measurements)
My basic take is that Marvel used to try to make different types of movies ("Winter Soldier" is 70s spy pastiche, "Ant Man" is heist-comedy, "Guardians of the Galaxy" is Buddy-SciFi).
Now they just try to make "Marvel movies".
This weekโs Variety cover story:
Crisis at Marvel: Jonathan Majors Back-Up Plans, 'The Marvels' Reshoots, Reviving Original Avengers and More Issues Revealed
People on twitter will really be like "you believe in distributing anti-malaria nets? that pales in effectiveness to my strategy, firebombing a Walmart" and then not firebomb a Walmart
Jonah Hill discourse shows the limits of liberalism/consent-only ethics because what people really want to say is that his boundaries are bad even if heโs honest about them and the other party agrees to them.
Amazon billed its "Just Walk Out" stores as some triumph of AI. In reality, it was powered by thousands of low-paid Indian workers manually adding up items in your cart as you shopped.
How insanely dystopian.
"39% of Americans are regularly skipping meals in order to pay their rent"
This is not true.
If you think it is true, you are dramatically out of touch.
@RoKhanna
"Acknowledge that people still have legitimate frustration and anger because the economy is not working for them?" - 39% of Americans are regularly skipping meals in order to pay their rent, Congressman. Millions are selling their blood plasma in order to survive. This is moreโฆ
I realize it just feeds the beast, but it honestly makes me laugh so hard when I imagine people being like โYOUR FRIENDS SHOULD WANT TO TALK ABOUT INVESTING AND CARDIO.โ Itโs just the most boring thing I can imagine.
During the Great Depression in 1930:
The average home cost $3,900
The average car cost about $600
The average rent was about $216 a year
Meanwhile, the average salary was $1,300 per year.
Today, in 2023 Joe Biden's America:
The average house costs $436,000
The average carโฆ
Everything is way too expensive. We all work constantly, often multiple jobs. We have no savings accounts, pensions, or plans for retirement (lol). Many of us still rent at exorbitant prices. The planet is desperately trying to warn us to stop this lifestyle. And yet, here we are
I think a harm of online activism is the "THIS IS ACTUALLY EASY" argument.
I've seen lots of folks indicate that a single billionaire could solve homelessness, or that there are 30x more houses than homeless people so we could just give them all houses.
These words areโฆ
I feel like Australia underestimates how this Novak Djokovic incident is going to tar the entire nation as fundamentally anti-freedom, and a place you should not visit, for a long time to come.
@mrbergmann
@unusual_whales
Here is what $400k a year gets you in NYC:
~50% tax (city + state + federal)
= ~$16.5k per month take-home
Decent 2-bedroom apt: ~$6k
Savings/Retirement deposit: ~$5k
Groceries: ~$1k
Car expenses: ~$1500
Entertainment: ~$2000
Utilities: ~$1000
Itโs not extravagant.
Most Americans do not live paycheck-to-paycheck:
- The median American household has a networth of $193k.
- The median American household holds $8k in transaction accounts (checking/savings).
- 54% of adults claim to have cash savings that could pay for 3 months of expenses.
We're endlessly lectured by progressive elites in politics and the media about how GREAT the Biden economy is. It actually is greatโif, like the elites lecturing you, you own a house and have a stock portfolio. But for most Americans who live paycheck to paycheck, it's awful.
๐ 63% of Americans rate their current financial situation as being "good," including 19% of us who say it's "very good," according to findings from our Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.
Americans' outlooks for the future are also rosy.
We have good data about layoffs!
The last three years are the years with the *fewest* layoffs.
That's part of why folks are saying the economy is good!
People's concept of the pandemic timeline is so weird.
Stuff was generally open by 8/4/2021.
People were going to the movie theaters to watch "Fast and Furious 9" that summer.
On August 4, 2021, President Obama and First Lady Michelle were accidentally exposed for being a hypocrite and an elitist by singer Erykah Badu who leaked this video of Obama dancing at his 60th birthday bash.
This was during strict COVID restrictions with Jay-Z, Beyonce, Johnโฆ
It is not true that 60% of families are living paycheck to paycheck.
- The median American household has a net worth of $193k.
- The same household holds $8k in transaction accounts (checking/savings).
- 54% of adults have 3 months of expenses saved.
Kudos to the Biden Administration for strong macro economic growth.
Iโll focus on ensuring more of that growth accrues to the 60% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck and 40% with < $400 in the bank.
โก๏ธAmerican Dream Accounts, Natโl Health Insurance, Debt Free Education,โฆ
On Day 1, *instantly* fire 50% of federal bureaucrats.
Hereโs how: if your SSN ends in an odd number, youโre fired.
That downsizes government by half. Absolutely *nothing* will break as a result.
It doesnโt violate civil service rules because mass layoffs are exempt.
SHUT ITโฆ
"2/3 of our citizens are living paycheck to paycheck."
This is not true
Median household networth in 2022 was $193k.
That includes $39k in financial assets and $8k in transaction(checking or savings) accounts.
Our country is being destroyed from within ...
- Our border is purposely wide open and we're being invaded.
- Our cities are crime-ridden hell-holes. Nobody is safe.
- Our colleges are breeding grounds for hate.
- We have more veterans and people than we can count who areโฆ
TRUTH.
1. God is real.
2. There are two genders.
3. Human flourishing requires fossil fuels.
4. Reverse racism is racism.
5. An open border is no border.
6. Parents determine the education of their children.
7. The nuclear family is the greatest form of governance known toโฆ
Does anyone work anymore?
Went on a walk Monday at 11:00 am and there were young people everywhere.
Working age people.
Between all these 'creator' types, remote work, quiet quitting, etc...
I honestly wonder how many people even work anymore.
Is your city like that?
People make many big claims about external validity but "giving people money helps them" is like the dumbest thing to have a very high burden of proof on - there's a lot of evidence!
The case for free distribution of malaria nets did not come from "logic" and "reasoning" practiced on message boards, but from careful large scale randomized trials that demonstrated that it was an effective method to prevent malaria.
anyone who claims to be entering an established field and reinventing it based on "logic" or "reasoning" skills they practiced in message boards is 100% going to fuck up whatever they try
This is what every McDonalds looks like.
The New Hampshire minimum wage is the same as the federal minimum wage ($7.25). The McDonalds all have automated kiosks.
This is the McDonaldโs at the Minneapolis airport. This is what happens when the min wage is too high. Liberals think they are helping people, but theyโre not.
The American economy works well for 20% of us.
That 20% live on an economic island surrounded by a vast sea of economic despairโฆ
the inevitable consequence of govt doing more to serve the goal of short term profit maximization for its huge corporate donors than to serve theโฆ
If you see me outside wearing a KN95 without anyone near me, please do not write a op-ed about it.
They are just much warmer than traditional winter face masks.
Human reviewers are going to be better at identifying bots than bots.
The central limit theorem means that 100 randomly selected accounts/day (3,000/month) will give you a result very close to the true value.
Foreign exchange is a trillion-dollar a year industry, yet investors can't distinguish between euros and dollars in blind tastings, will rank currency higher based on the bond rating, and have even been fooled with a bit of food coloring into thinking paper is money.
I just donโt understand what the end goal is. Increasing cost of living, not increasing wages, and producing mass layoffs.
Is this country trying to implode from the inside outโฆ?!
Itโs clear the puppet masters have lost their use for Biden & are slowly sidelining him, but the real trick is who theyโre propping up instead. Itโs not Gavin or Michelle, as Iโd assumed before. Itโs far more insidious. Open your eyes, folks. Itโs staring us right in the face.
Vox is letting go of a lot of it's staff, presumably because they are concerned that the Biden administration will increase the minimum wage next year.
>playing a prisoners' dilemma
>ask the economist if the dilemma is one shot or iterated
>she doesnt understand
> | pull out illustrated diagram explaining what is one shot and what is iterated
>she laughs and says โitโs a good dilemma sirโ
>defect
>its iterated