Ben Carlson @awealthofcs Twitter profile

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

11 months

The Evolution of Financial Advice I've been working on this one for a while It's a long one

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

5 years

I can't wait to cut the cord and simply subscribe to: Netflix Disney+ Apple TV Prime Video HBO Go Starz Showtime Cinemax Hulu ESPN+ YouTube TV Sling TV This will finally help me reach my goal of becoming a minimalist

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

6 years

how to be a billionaire (per the internet): -sleep 10 hrs/day -read 6 books/week -meditate for 2 hrs/day -post motivational quotes -wake up before 5am every day -work 14 hrs/day -workout 2 hrs/day (before work) -but also have a good work-life balance voila that's it

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

1 year

New FTX balance sheet just dropped: They now claim to hold 27 Taylor Swift concert tickets valued at $3.9 billion

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

The Fed needs to raise rates as quickly as possible to tame inflation by sending us into a recession where they can then cut rates to save us from the recession

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 months

June 2022: US inflation rate: 9.1% US unemployment rate: 3.6% Now: US inflation rate: 3.1% US unemployment rate: 3.7% I don't think we're making a big enough deal about how well we threaded the needle here

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

My all-time favorite Bezos anecdote is Harvard business school students giving him feedback on Amazon in 1997

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

I'm sticking w/my theory that canceling $10k in credit card debt would have a much greater impact on the economy than canceling $10k in student loans

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

Dave Portnoy outperforming Warren Buffett this year is not something I had in my 2020 outlook

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

Tech investors explaining their 3 day bear market to value investors

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

6 years

This headline explains more about how markets function than all of my finance textbooks from college combined

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

Losing a billion dollars isn’t cool You know what’s cool? Losing a trillion dollars

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

Facebook lost $200+ billion of market cap today Amazon just added $200+ billion of market cap in the after-hours The S&P 500:

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

The different levels of losses right now: If you own an S&P 500 index fund (minor correction) If you own the Nasdaq 100 (correction) If you own small caps (bear market) If you own Facebook (1987) If you own crypto (crash) If you own hyper-growth stocks (Great Depression)

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

YTD returns: Your index funds -10% Your crypto -20% Your Robinhood growth stocks -40% Nancy Pelosi's portfolio +147%

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

Investors in 2020: Beating the stock market is easy The stock market in 2021:

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

6 months

You see, the rate of inflation is falling but inflation itself is cumulative. Prices aren't falling they're just growing at a slower pace

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

6 months

Unemployment rate: low GDP growth: high Household net worth: never been higher Inflation: coming down Sentiment: worst economy ever My replies: the data is fake

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

2021 year to date performance numbers: S&P 500 +18% Small caps +13% Bitcoin +12% Bonds -1% Gold -4% A 2002 Toyota Corolla +156%

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

Price for Netflix monthly subscription: $12.99 Price for a barrel of oil: $11.50 If you simply cancel your Netflix subscription and store oil in your backyard...you'll be really bored and have a bunch of oil in your backyard

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

7 years

Things that didn't make billionaires successful: -Their morning routine -Meditating -That one book they read -Inspirational quotes -Tactics

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

These losses are breathtaking: Teledoc -80% Zoom -82% Robinhood -86% Peloton -88% Depression-level stuff

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

Boring stocks this year: Berkshire Hathaway +13% Hershey's +17% Johnson & Johnson +9% John Deere +13% Exciting stocks this year: Nvidia -32% Shopify -68% Netflix -65% Facebook -44%

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

US government bond yields: 30 year - 3.1% 10 year - 3.0% 5 Year - 3.1% 2 Year - 2.9% Inflation - 8.6% I feel like my economics minor in college didn't cover this one

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 months

Net worth is at all-time highs Stock prices are at all-time highs Housing prices are at all-time highs Economic activity is at all-time highs Air travel is at all-time highs You can earn 5% on your cash I know ppl don't like good news but this is the roaring 20s (w/o the vibes)

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

Bitcoin is up 340% over the past year But if you account for 6% inflation that's only a real return of 334%

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

I love Twitter

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

5 years

In the 1990s every NBA player wanted to be a rapper & every rapper wanted to be an actor Now every NBA player wants to be VC & every VC wants to be a stoic philosopher on social media

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

6 months

2020: no one wants to work 2021: The Great Resignation 2022: quiet quitting 2023: no one wants to quit anymore these are all weird ways for the media to describe the hottest labor market we've experienced in like 40 years

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

If you're a boomer you should probably be mad at the Fed for trying to move the stock market lower If you're a young person you should be thanking the Fed for providing you a lower entry point

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

When bitcoin rises every single day: I missed the boat but I'm definitely buying the next time it crashes When bitcoin crashes: I'm not buying this. It's probably going to zero Repeat until angry

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

7 years

If you put $10k into AMZN at the IPO... you wouldn't hold it anymore b/c you would've panicked & sold when it fell 95% in the dot-com crash

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

That 3 day bear market was brutal

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

This pandemic is going to change consumer behavior for the rest of history Wait what?

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

Sister Jean is actually only 31 years old. It’s just that she interned at Goldman for 6 months

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

Every S&P 500 correction since 2009: -16.0% -19.4% -13.3% -10.2% -19.8% -33.9% -11.9% (this one) Every time felt like the world was about to unravel at any moment This one feels like that right now too Someday it's not going to feel like that anymore (I don't know when)

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

I don’t know how to quantify this but if I’m a Tesla shareholder I’d be terrified Elon Musk singlehandedly sinks the company at some point He’s both the most bullish and most bearish part of that stock

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

BREAKING: FED RAISES RATE BY 50 BASIS POINTS BANKS RESPOND BY RAISING SAVINGS ACCT RATES 0.00005%

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

Finance textbooks: Stock splits don’t impact the value of a company in any way Tesla investors: We disagree

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

How bad is inflation? These are McDonalds menu prices from 2019

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

Rich author, poor readers

Robert Kiyosaki

@theRealKiyosaki

3 years

Giant stock market crash coming October. Why? Treasury and Fed short of T-bills. Gold,silver, Bitcoin may crash too. Cash best for picking up bargains after crash. Not selling gold silver Bitcoin, yet have lots of cash for life after stock market crash. Stocks dangerous. Careful

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

6 years

A good book (paperback/kindle) costs around $9.99 A good Hallmark birthday/anniversary card costs around $5.99 This is a market inefficiency I will never understand

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

5 years

The US should issue 100 year bonds: -buy Greenland -pay off all student loan debt -get everyone a Peloton -free guac at Chipotle for a year -give every citizen $10k to open an IRA -universal (free) WiFi -fix the damn roads/bridges -take Twitter private & make it a public good

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

Inflation: 5.4% 10 yr bond yields: 1.4% Bitcoin: 50% off its highs Gold: flat over the last year Inflation hedging: not as easy as it sounds

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

27 days

Home and auto insurance is going to turn into a mini-crisis at some point Auto insurance is up 22% in the past year I've yet to get a good explanation for this insane rise

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

Credit card rates: 15% Mortgage rates: 5% Savings acct yields: 0.1% Feels like the mob would give better terms than a bank right now

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

I'm still struggling to understand how a $10 billion family office was running their portfolio like an 18 year old YOLO trader using infinite leverage on Robinhood It's shocking how often the "smart" money can be so dumb

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

Tesla shareholders explaining their losses to energy investors

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

New investor: I’m just going to wait it out in cash until the stock market falls 70%. Then I’ll go all in Investors who have been sitting in cash since 2008:

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

Facebook is down a McDonalds in market cap after hours

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

S&P 500 returns 2009-2022: 2009 +26% 2010 +15% 2011 +2% 2012 +16% 2013 +32% 2014 +14% 2015 +1% 2016 +12% 2017 +22% 2018 -4% 2019 +31% 2020 +18% 2021 +29% 2022 -5% Pretty decent run

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 months

Stock market all-time highs Inflation back to 3% Can still earn 5% on your cash (for now) Sub-4% unemployment rate Everyone still spending $$$ like crazy New True Detective season I was promised the roaring 20s…and it’s kind of here?

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

Oil prices rise 20%: Prices at the pump immediately jump 20% Oil prices fall 20%:

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

New CFA Level II exam question: What’s the biggest determinant of market prices? (a) interest rates (b) valuations (c) Reddit memes (d) 7x leveraged family offices w/a history of insider trading

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

April 2020: here take this oil we’ll literally pay you for it May 2021: sorry no more gas in the southeast we’re all out

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

New tech CEO daily routine: 5am wake-up but don't eat b/c you're fasting 6-8 listen to 12 podcasts 8-10 generate memes 10-12 troll your enemies on Twitter 12-6 intermittent fasting, answer some emails 6-8 clubhouse 8-10 pump dogecoin & meme stocks

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

How to survive a correction: Watch every tick of the overnight futures market. Sleep when dead Panic sell on big down days & buy back after big up days Take your advice from ppl who have been calling for a crash every day for the last 12 yrs Blame the Fed for any huge losses

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

9 months

The Fed went on one of the most aggressive rate-hiking cycles in history It's been 18 months yet the unemployment rate hasn't budged, GDP growth is accelerating & housing prices didn't crash Can we just admit that no one really understands how the US economy works?

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

The guy who plays the music when speeches go too long thinking about cutting off Will Smith:

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

5 years

Investors panic as the S&P 500 crashes to a year to date return of +14.5% in 2019

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

6 years

If you’re on Twitter long enough you tend to fall into 6 camps: 1. Snark 2. Troll 3. Philosopher 4. Actually... 5. Outrage 6. Life coach who follows 100k ppl

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

The Fed just raised short-term interest rates above the mortgage rate for like ~65% of all homeowners Basically no one is selling their house any time soon

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

Brady looked at the 10 year at 2% had a talk w/his financial advisor and realized pulling a FIRE using a 4% withdrawal rate simply isn’t feasible Made the smart move to delay retirement

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

"Buy & hold investing is dead." -someone who doesn't understand how buy & hold works during every bear market in history

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

S&P 500 calendar returns since 2009: 2009: +25.6% 2010: +14.8% 2011: +2.1% 2012: +15.9% 2013: +32.2% 2014: +13.5% 2015: +1.4% 2016: +11.8% 2017: +21.6% 2018: -4.2% 2019: +31.2% 2020: +18.0% 2021: +18.4% Is this the best market environment millennials will ever see?

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

Duration of bear markets: Bonds - 18 years Stocks - 18 months Crypto - 18 hours

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

Today I raised my personal debt ceiling and splurged on double chicken for my Chipotle bowl Screw the grandkids

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

From the bottom on March 23, 2020: Small caps +130% Nasdaq 100 +96% S&P 500 +77% This is why every investor feels like a genius right now

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

When bitcoin is rising: It’s going to $500k. Only a matter of time When bitcoin is crashing; It’s going to $0. Only a matter of time Every time

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

5 months

Stocks at all-time highs Mortgage rates falling Unemployment rate <4% Household net worth never been higher Soft landing basically here Feels like this is when something comes out of left field to derail things What if Kiyosaki is right?

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

Dave Portnoy: stocks only go up Professional investors: Dave Portnoy doesn't know what he's talking about Stocks: we're just going to only go up if that's ok w/you

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

Annual income earned on $100k in a savings acct: 1996 - $5,000 2000 - $6,000 2006 - $4,510 Now - $280 Based on the rule of 72, I estimate it will take forever to double your $$$ in a savings acct

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

5 years

This is just like the dot-com bubble except every high profile tech IPO is getting slaughtered and the most egregiously valued private company can’t figure out how to go public and retail investors are indexing instead of quitting their job to day trade But other than that

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

Citron: we’re still short GME WSB:

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

"I can't believe they just let a billionaire buy Twitter." -media person who works for a company owned by a billionaire

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

Boeing shares halted so some Senators can place trades before a news release

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

The 5th biggest company in the S&P 500 is down 24% today The S&P 500 is down 1.2% today Diversification is not undefeated but it's never gotten blown out either

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

“The reason that ‘guru’ is such a popular word is because ‘charlatan’ is so hard to spell.” -William Bernstein

Arash Massoudi

@ArashMassoudi

2 years

Chamath tells Axios' @danprimack : "We had a decade plus of zero interest rates. That is what was fundamentally wrong. It perverted the market. It allowed manias and assets bubbles...When you provide free money into a system. Manias will build."

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

Last year: Why is the stock market rising when the economy is getting worse? This year: Why is the stock market falling when the economy is getting better?

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

6 years

Buffett giving advice to Bezos. Good stuff ht @pt

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

$10,000 invested in Facebook yesterday would now be worth $7,400

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

The last time inflation was this high (1981): 10% savings account yields 17% mortgages 13% bond yields Sub-8x CAPE ratio Now: 1% savings account yields 5% mortgages 3% bond yields 28x CAPE ratio

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

The McCallisters paid $122.50 for 10 pizzas in 1990 That’s $12.25 per pizza You can get a large 3 topping from a place like Pizza Hut for like $10 today Maybe it’s time for the Fed to raise their inflation target?

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

2 out of the 6 worst days in stock market history (going back to 1928) have occurred in the past week: 10/19/1987 -20.5% 10/28/1929 -13.0% 3/16/2020 -12.0% 10/29/1929 -10.2% 11/6/1929 -9.9% 3/12/2020 -9.5% The stock mkt is taking this VERY seriously

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

1 month

My favorite Kahneman quote about why you can't have an exclusive focus on the long term: "Because the long term is not where life is lived."

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

Hedge funds getting dethroned by a Reddit message board is the best markets story in a long time Paging Michael Lewis

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

Screw it I made a contribution to my retirement acct at the close I have 30 years until I touch this $ If I regret this decision in 30 years we have bigger problems on our hands

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

This is your annual reminder that pizza is your best hedge against inflation The McCallister’s paid $122.50 for 10 pizzas in 1990 Basically same price you would pay today

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

This is the first recession in history where we just keep adding jobs

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

5 months

My most cynical take of 2023: What are the odds the Ozempic results are faked? A drug that can make you eat less, crave less, lose weight, stop gambling, biting your nails & drinking? It's either one of the greatest discoveries ever or Elizabeth Holmes 2.0 w/no middle ground

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

90% of life is just showing up 90% of investing is temperament and waiting 90% of business success is some combination of skill, luck and hard work 90% of statistics like this are completely made up but they make us feel better about our chances for success

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

Today Tesla surpassed Walmart as the 9th largest stock in the United States w/a market cap of $371 billion Annual Revenues: Walmart - $523 billion Tesla - $25 billion

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

2 years

Solution to high oil prices is pretty obvious: Buy now pay later option at gas stations

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 months

Finance is one of the only industries where ppl can be wrong about everything all the time yet investors still listen to their opinions Sir, you've been wrong about the economy and financial markets for 15 years. Care to tell us what you think will happen next?

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

5 years

Every week for the rest of our lives: "A recession is 18-24 months out." -economists "The Mueller report is coming out next week." -political pundits "We're very close to a trade deal w/China." -White House "We're heading for a massive crash." -permabears

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

4 years

Our local grocery store chain is going to start selling pre-packaged meals from 8 local restauants at 25 locations This will allow the restaurants to re-hire some employees Nice seeing these businesses get creative Love this idea

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

did anyone contact McKinsey yet on the canal thing? could be some real synergies they haven't considered just yet

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

5 years

This chart blows my mind every year

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Ben Carlson

@awealthofcs

3 years

If you're a hedge fund that's short Gamestop you really only have 2 options: 1. Close your fund to "spend more time w/your family"* 2. Write an 87 page quarterly letter blaming the Fed *open up a new fund in 18 months under a new name

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