Joining The Compound and Friends with
@Downtown
and
@michaelbatnick
was truly an honor.
I've done this for a long time and this ranks right at the top for me.
Thanks so much for having me!
@TheCompoundNews
TCAF episode 131🎙️
@RyanDetrick
makes his Compound and Friends debut as he joins
@Downtown
and
@michaelbatnick
to discuss bullish signals, small caps, odds of a third bear market in 5 years, Nvidia, election year data, and more!
Apple🎧…
11 years ago today my wife was diagnosed with breast cancer. She was 32.
My daughter was 10 months old and we were told she would never get pregnant again.
Well, she is doing great and these two would suggest to always have faith.
Wow, this might upset a lot of 🐻s, but here goes.
When the S&P 500 is higher in both January and February did you know the next 12 months have been higher 27 out of 28 times since 1950?!
Average return of 14.8%.
This is a bear market rally they say.
The S&P 500 up 13.8% in 2 mos.
That type of move isn't what you see in a bear market. It is what you see at the start of a bull market.
Past 13 times (since '50) it gained >13% over 2 mos it was higher a yr later 12 times and up 20.7% avg.
History was made this week.
For only the 5th time ever, the S&P 500 gained at least 1% for 4 consecutive days.
This rare occurrence is also quite bullish, as a year later it has been up more than 20% every single time with an average gain of 28.0%.
My Mom passed away yesterday, after a 7-yr battle w stage 4 breast cancer.
I held her hand on her final breath.
She meant the world to us and we miss her dearly.
She taught us to love each day to the fullest and don't forget to have some fun along the way.
Love you, Mom!
The S&P 500 officially moved into correction territory today.
This is the 33rd correction or bear market since 1980.
Take note, they aren't fun and no one likes it, but the return 1-year later is nearly 25% and higher 90% of the time.
This is interesting.
When the S&P 500 gained >7% in Q1, the full year has never been lower.
That is 16 out of 16 times the full year finished in the green, up 23.1% on avg.
Looking at the previous 4 times the 2/10 yr yield curve inverted shows the S&P 500 rallied for another 17 months and gained 28.8% until the ultimate peak.
Beware some of the narratives taking place right now.
The last four times the 2/10 yield curve inverted:
S&P 500 up avg of 28.8% before peak.
Ultimate peak was 17.1 months later.
Recession started 21.0 months later.
Yes, it is a warning, but it isn't so simple.
This is crazy.
The S&P 500 hasn't had an up day of less than 1% since February 16.
That is nine up days in a row of at least a 1% gain or more.
The last 2 times it did this? June 2009 and April 2020.
Not the worst times to be bullish.
S&P 500 closed above the 200-day MA for first time in more than 7 months.
Looking at the previous 13 times (since '50) it was beneath this trendline for 6 mos or more and closed above showed only once did it move back to new lows.
Up avg 18.8% yr later and higher 12/13 times.
I had 11 inches of my colon removed today. It was only 6 small cuts with a robot doing it all. Simply amazing.
Everything went well and on the road to recovery.
Thanks to the
@ChristHospital
for making this as smooth as humanly possible.
Economy
* Record drop in services
* Record drop in consumer spending
* Record drop industrial production
* Record spike in jobless claims
* Record drop in regional manufacturing
* Record drop in consumer confidence
* Record asset purchases from Fed
Stocks
* Best month since 1987
S&P 500 record high
Nasdaq record high
Midcaps record high
Small caps 52-wk high
Gold record high
Bitcoin over $60k
Pick your narrative, but this has been a wonderful time for investors.
Another sign of extreme capitulation in late June?
Love this chart from JPMorgan that showed a record 12% of companies were trading beneath cash and short-term investments.
You don't see that everyday.
The S&P 500 is down 6 days in a row and made a new 52-wk low.
Don't shoot the messenger here, but that's happened 20 other times since 1950 and what happens next is pretty bullish.
A year later? Higher 90% of the time and up 20% on average.
The extremely rare Zweig Breadth Thrust just triggered.
It has only happened 14 other times since 1950 and the S&P 500 was higher a year later. every. single. time.
Up more than 23% on average a year later as well.
🎯🐂
Since WWII, the S&P 500 finished the year down more than 20% only three times. 1972, 2002, and 2008.
This year could be number 4. (But I'd still say we have time for a nice year-end bounce)
The following year stocks gained 31.5%, 26.4%, and 23.5%.
Lot of talk how a new bull market started today.
Just remember, the ‘73/‘74 bear saw a 20% bounce.
‘01/‘02 bear had 22%, 25%, 24% and 24% rallies before ultimately falling 51%.
And the ‘08/‘09 bear saw a 27% rally before falling 56%.
We aren’t out of the woods quite yet.
The Dow is up 10.8% for the month, which would be the best October since Charlie Dow created the Dow in 1896.
The other Octobers to gain 10%? 1982 and 2002. Both ended bear markets and stocks had huge multi-year gains next.
We officially saw a super rare Zweig Breadth Thrust today. Thanks to
@NDR_Research
for the data.
This rare signal is simply stocks moving from very oversold to overbought in less than two weeks.
All you need to know is since WWII, the S&P 500 is higher a year later every time.
Here are all the times the S&P 500 gained more than 6% in a week (like it just did this week).
Higher 12.5% on avg 6 months later and 21.7% a year later.
In other words, these big weeks tend to mark the start to strength, not the end of it.
My Mom died a year ago tonight (in about three hours).
I held her hand as she took her final breath.
With all the news happening right now, be nice to each other out there.
There have been 24 other corrections for the S&P 500 since WWII.
The avg correction was 14.3% and took 133 days.
The current correction is 13.9% and up to 117 days.
Yes, this isn't done and there could be more pain, but this isn't very out of the ordinary yet.
My Mom would have been 70 today.
She passed away in April after a very long battle with breast cancer.
I miss her, but obviously more today.
Listening to old voicemails helps. Last yr on her birthday she did a shot and she told me how it helped her sore throat. ;)
💜❤️ 🤗
2022 was the worst start to a year for the S&P 500 since 1974 and 2002.
Worth noting that the 1974 bear bottomed on October 3, while the 2002 bear bottomed on October 9.
Worked on this tonight and it is pretty interesting.
How quickly could the S&P 500 recover the 30% loss?
Here are all the bear markets since 1950 and how long they all took to recover the losses.
S&P 500 up more than 5% YTD so far this February.
I found 28 other years that were up at least 5% YTD at some point during Feb.
Final 10 months? Higher 25 times and up another 13.3% on avg.
Full year? Higher 26 out of 28 times and up 21.3% on avg.
The S&P 500 is about to be up in Nov, Dec, Jan, and Feb.
Did you know the full calendar yr has never been lower when that happened before?
Higher 14 out of 14 and up 21.2% on average.
🐂🎯💪💥
The S&P 500 is about to be up 16 of the past 18 days.
May 1990 the last time that happened and December 1971 before that.
This type of strength is so rare and pretty much happened as soon as the Rich Dad, Poor Dad guy warned everyone about an October crash.
Heavy truck sales continue to increase.
Before the past 7 recessions we saw this decline well before the recession started.
You want to talk about leading indicators of a recession? I'll take this every time.
Yet another clue a recession isn't imminent like we keep hearing.
S&P 500 down 3.99% today at the lows.
Since 1950, there have been 88 other days to be down this much at one point during the day.
Today was only the 3rd time stocks closed higher when the dust settled. (Both of the others were Oct '08).
97% of the stocks in the S&P 600 (small caps) closed green yesterday.
That was the best day in 12 years.
You rarely see days like this in a bear market. This was more than 'just a bear market rally' like they are telling us.
Last week, the S&P 500 recovered half of the bear market losses.
This is a very good sign, as stocks have never moved back to new lows after this happened.
In fact, a year later, higher every time and up 19.3% on average as well.
What happens after fast 10% corrections for the Nasdaq?
Extremely strong returns are quite common, meaning this 10% correction could end up being a nice buying opportunity for those willing to make the uncomfortable trade.
Want to upset your favorite 🐻?
Tell them that when the S&P 500 gains >10% in Nov and December (like '23 will), the returns the following year get even 💪.
Q1 and the following year returns have never been lower.
In fact, following yr up close to 20% on avg.
Friday triggered a rare, but quite bullish signal.
>90% of the components in the S&P 500 are now above their 50-day moving average.
As you can see, these signals take place in strong uptrends historically.
Great find from
@scottcharts
.
The S&P 500 above the 200-day for a month isn't something you see in bear markets.
In fact, stocks have never been in a bear, then spent a month >200 day, and then moved back to new lows.
The S&P 500 is up more than >1% 3 consecutive days.
Going back 20 yrs, this has happened 10 other times.
The future returns are extremely strong, up a year later every time and higher nearly 25%.
Moves like we've seen this wk aren't the end of bull moves, but likely the start.
S&P 500 with a shot at 3 consecutive 1% gains.
These don't happen at the end of big moves, they usually kick off big moves.
Last two times? Election 2020 and Mar 2020.
Before that? Nov 2018, Brexit 2016, and Feb 2016.
Again, these weren't the worst time to turn bullish.
The Nasdaq closed more than 4% off the lows on Friday.
Other times that happened?
Oct '11, Aug '15, Feb '18, Dec '18, March '20, Sept '20, and now.
Most of those times marked significant turning points.
Will the Fed really cut rates with stocks near ATHs?
I found 20 times (since 1980) they cut rates when the S&P 500 was within 2% of ATHs.
Higher a year later? 20 times. Whoa.
Did you know that stocks have gained in a pre-election year and election year after a negative midterm year every time since 1950?
That is 17 for 17 higher.
Do you really think '24 will end this incredible streak?
The last three times the S&P 500 was down at least 1% in both Aug and Sept?
October was up 8.0% in '22, 8.3% in '15, and 10.8% in '11.
Higher 9 of the past 10 times going back to the late '50s.
As bad as things feel, don't lose faith just yet.
The S&P 500 has corrected 13.0% this year.
The average year since 1980 has corrected 14.0%
Then note:
1.) 21 yrs since 1980 have pulled back at least 10%
2.) 12 of those times stocks came back and finished the yr higher
3.) In fact, up 17% on avg at end of yr those 12 times
It is rare for the S&P 500 to soar in February.
After >5% gains (like we just saw) the next month has been higher 5 out of 6 times.
Also, the full calendar yr up gained a median of 20%.
Next 12 months? Up 13.0% on avg as well.
File this in the not bearish pile.
S&P 500 up 21.5% the past 4 calendar months.
15 previous times it gained >20% in 4 mos, what happened next?
Higher 6 mos later 15 times.
Higher a yr later 15 times.
Again, the blast we've seen off the late Oct lows is consistent with the early stages of a bull move.
🐂🎯💪
My brother and I took Mom out for Valentine's Day lunch.
She has stage four metastasized breast cancer. It was a struggle to even get dressed, let alone in the car and inside the restaurant.
But there was no stopping her, as she was determined to make it. Smile says it all.
Think CPI matters?
9/13/22 - Worse than expected and S&P 500 worst day in 2 yrs.
10/13/22 - Worse than expected. Futures crashed, but stocks staged one of largest intraday reversals ever.
11/10/22 - Better than expected and S&P 500 had best day of yr.
12/13/22- ???
The S&P 500 had a 21 month bear market that saw stocks lose 27% from Nov 1980 to Aug 1982.
Once it became clear that inflation was rolling over, it took less than 4 months to get back to new highs.
3 yrs ago today was the 1st time the Dow ever fell 1k pts
I was unemployed and at a Dr office w a herniated disk (worst pain of my life)
Today in a job I love at a great company
If you are struggling - here's my advice
1) Keep grinding
2) Keep knocking on doors
3) Have faith
Recent events:
* Nasdaq=bear market
* Death cross for S&P 500
* BofA Global Fund Manager survey most cash since spring '20
* Consumer confidence lowest in 10 yrs
* Nickels worth more than dimes
* 40 year high in inflation
My take? There's a lot of bad stuff priced in right now.
Only 2% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 50-day moving average.
This is near historically washed out levels, only topped by March 2020 and October 2008.
The yield curve inverted!
What they don’t tell you is the ‘short end’ of the curve did. The Fed controls this end.
The long end (10-30 yr spread) is steepening. This is controlled by free markets.
1990s saw the short end invert TWICE, as long end didn’t.
Watch both.
A week ago we saw that Goldman Sachs data showed hedge funds were the least net long US equities in 11 years.
Then the Barron's Big Money poll showed only 12% of clients were bullish.
Stocks just had their best week of the year. This is how it tends to work.
Officially 7 consecutive days the S&P 500 changed at least 4% (up or down) on a closing basis.
This tops the previous record of 6 days from November 1929.
Welcome to a truly historic level of volatility.
This is the 3rd worst start to a year ever for the S&P 500.
That's the bad news.
The good news (and we could use some) is looking at the 10 worst starts shows the rest of the year comes in much better than average.
10.0% versus 4.8%.
The S&P 500 is about to move into a 10% correction.
What stands out (as we all know) is it happened fast, really fast.
Here are the only times it took less than a month to move from an ATH to down 10%.
The good news is 6 months later never lower and up nearly 15% on avg.
This won't make the 🐻very happy.
First 52-week high for the S&P 500 in more than one year.
Previous times it went more than a year before finally making a new 52-week high?
Higher a year later 15 out of 15 times and up more than 17% on avg.
🐂🎯
Here are the previous 36 times the S&P 500 didn't close beneath the December lows during Q1.
Usually means good things.
This is about to happen in 2023.
Yes, the Fed will probably hike rates for the first time in a new cycle sometime during the first half of 2022.
Remember though, looking at the past 8 first hikes, stocks were higher a year later every single time.
With the S&P 500 up two weeks in a row in the face of terrible news and the Nasdaq 100 at 7-month highs, think about this.
The most hated asset is US stocks, while cash is the most loved.
"If everybody is thinking alike, somebody isn't thinking." General Patton
More than 40% of the components in the S&P 500 hit an RSI >70 last week.
Yes, we are super overbought, but we also see this type of action at the start of VERY strong moves.
Jan '75
Oct '82
Feb '91
July '20
Now
Up a year later all 4 times and up 25.7% on avg.
🐂💪
The S&P 500 is close to being up in both Jan and Feb.
Rest of yr? Higher 26 out of 28 times.
A yr later? Higher 27 out of 28 times.
Yes, I know all about M2 and yield curves, but I side that this bull has a lot longer to go than most think.
Global growth optimism is currently at an all-time low.
There are no bells rung at tops or bottoms, but that's a lot of bad news priced into things right here and now.
2022 is the 4th worst start to a year ever for the S&P 500 after 100 days.
That's the bad news.
The good news is looking at the previous worst 5 starts ever shows the rest of the year was higher every time and up 19.1% on average.
People ask all the time, you are bullish but what will change your mind?
I always say when the defensive stuff starts to lead, that'll be a warning sign.
LOVE this chart form
@HumbleStudent
showing the defensive stuff continues to lag.
If and until this changes, stay bullish.
My Dad passed in Jan '18 and he would have been 69 today.
He always told me remember these two things: That I love you and always do your best.
I tell my kids the same thing.
5 yrs ago tomorrow was 1st time Dow was down 1,000 points.
I'll never forget it. I was unemployed and at a back Doctor's office. Could barely walk, in constant pain, and market was collapsing.
Today my back is great and I'm a Chief Market Strategist.
Keep grinding guys.
Since 1980 there have been 24 corrections for the S&P 500 (a correction is between 10%-20% off the highs).
This one is currently 18.1%.
A year off the lows the S&P 500 has been higher 22 times and up 23.0% on average.
Dow up +25% in '17 ... time to look for a pullback?
Since '50, up >25% YTD 10 times.
Higher next year 8 times with 6 of those times up double digits.
Avg +12.6% vs avg yearly return of +8.5%.
In other words, don't turn bearish simply because '17 was up a lot.
The S&P 500 is up 7.3% since 8/3/20 (3 months before the election).
Historically, a strong stock market has been a good sign that the incumbent party would win.
In fact, no President has ever lost an election with stocks up >7% the 3 months before the election.
Tomorrow is the 50th trading day of the year.
Currently down 12.4% YTD would go down as one of the worst starts to a year ever.
Only 3 years were down >12% YTD on day 50 actually.
The good news? Rest of year was up, up a lot.
1935 - 66%
2009 - 48%
2020 - 39%
The S&P 500 is currently down 9.7% YTD and it is February.
Since WWII only twice has it been down 10% in February, in 2009 and 2016.
Not good, but note both of those years saw big rallies and finished well in the green.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) opened down more than 3%, finished up more than 3%, and finished more than 7% off the lows.
That has only happened one other time in history (April 2000).
What a day.
Somewhat cliché to say, but there really is a lot of cash on the sidelines.
In fact, the recent BofA Global Fund Manager Survey says the most cash on the slides since 9/11.
To those of you who ignored all the gloom and doomers, stuck with the process, added to retirement funds every two weeks, saw ☀️ times ahead, ignored the M2 and yield curve BS, and continued to buy in the face of some pretty scary headlines.
You deserve this. ALL TIME HIGHS!