The lowest hanging fruit at this point surely has to be for Germany to flick the switch back on at those three nuclear power plants, and to postpone the decommission of the three others at the end of 2022.
I don't know what's most amazing; that
@BretWeinstein
has been right about Biden all along, or that the rest of the world is now seamlessly adopting his position as if it was the most natural thing in the world. Everything and anything to get Trump out indeed.
Opinion: Kamala Harris is in line to be as much co-president as vice-president of the US. In her, Joe Biden has hired not just a running mate but an executive burden-sharer and a viable stand-in
Bailey, himself on £500K a year, overseeing a hike into one of the most brutal drops in real incomes in recent memory—due to higher energy costs and tighter fiscal policy—telling the UK people, with an avg salary of 26K, to go easy on the wage demands. I mean ... LOL.
The
@Conservatives
gvt has today, with the passing of the
#firesafteybill
, opened Pandora’s Box on the U.K. property market and economy. This is a move that will go down as one of the most spectacular political and economic own goals in this country’s modern history,
#timestamp
⚠️ ECB'S VISCO SAYS TODAY A SPREAD OF LESS THAN 150 BPS WOULD BE JUSTIFIED
ECB'S VISCO SAYS A SPREAD OF OVER 200 BPS WOULD BE UNJUSTIFIED
~ There's your ECB bid/ask spread
@lisaabramowicz1
It's both, that's why it's tricky. The immediate hit will be disinflationary/deflationary, but make no mistake, the move towards dismantling globalization (shrinking the supply side) coupled with un-encumbered demand-side fiscal stimulus is inflationary/stagflationary.
Let's summarise the UK then; mon pol tightening, fiscal covid support is gone, Brexit is still simmering, a new virus wave incoming, tax hikes in 2022, and real incomes are now falling due to high inflation. Good luck!
I genuinely thought/believed the ECB could achieve a softish landing, and that the data would offer it to them. Now, however, real M1 (best leading indicator) is plunging to new depths, while the ECB is getting more hawkish, focusing on unit labour costs (most long-lagging
You want a V? I'll give you one then ... cue laughter and jeers from the peanut gallery about the usual wild revisions in these data, but it's a V, and a fairly strong one too.
@EricRWeinstein
Walk me through this Eric; to me it is 1) a derivative of loose economic policies 2) energy inefficient, 3) 99% of people who peddle in it care most about its value in dollars, not the services and goods that can be exchanged for it. Blockchains are cool, but for currencies?
This is an embarrassing crisis for this country. Yesterday, a leaseholder said here that she is feeling suicidal. We can believe that these people are unlucky, anti-fragile or "didn't read the contract", or we can rectify what should have been rectified a long time ago. cc:
@luhc
Our housing crisis is making us sick. The problems associated with newbuilds and leaseholds have been known to successive govts for years. I hope I'm wrong but I fear 10 million leasehold and fleecehold householders are being set-up for an almighty betrayal in the King's Speech.
Well done to
@LiamSpender
! Congrats to him and the residents in St. David's Square. And a cautionary tale ... if you don't have a litigation lawyer in your building, with annual leave to spare, ... you're stuffed! ;).
Flats are great; leasehold flats no so great. Anyone who doesn't understand this, and how it currently permeates everything in UK housing related to the demand for housing, housing tenure and overall consumer preferences haven't, in my view, understood anything.
If you live in a house, and it needs repairs, you will in all but a few instances be able to control/prioritise the work. If you live in a flat, the "owner" of the building can send you an S20 for £240K, and take your home away if you don't pay. Nuts! 1/2
@RKemb
@t0nyyates
@adam_tooze
@AndrewSudmant
The idea that Germany, as a western economy, somehow uniquely sold its soul to the devil by buying abundant energy from a country with questionable (geo)political credentials/motives is peak It is all Germany's Fault™.
@PJTheEconomist
That's exactly what they'll do. This message will be spinning within the week after July 4th; "conditions are much worse than we thought; our manifest promises might not hold etc" ... they have to impose tax hikes early and aggressively.
This is groundbreaking and life-changing work. Thanks to
@SMcPartland
et al. for delivering this. There is really no excuse now
@michaelgove
and
@team_greenhalgh
for not grasping the nettle and change course. Good Luck!
Cc
@michaelgove
… this is on you now sir. You probably didn’t want to have this issue to deal with, but it is yours to deal with all the same. Act wisely.
My daughter has just received her latest service charge on her 2 bedroom flat in Leeds Dock. WTAF. This is completely and utterly ridiculous.
#EndOurCladdingScandal
@PeteApps
They’ve lost the plot .. they have literally lost control of this and are sleepwalking into disaster in part because the HoC majority allows them to ram through the bill ... good on the lords for holding them account though!
@team_greenhalgh
pointing out that freeholders would simply proceed to bankruptcy if they're made liable for
#BuildingSafetyCrisis
costs, making this route counterproductive. What does he think leaseholders will be forced to do?!
While
@michaelgove
is, predictably, unwilling to provide any assurances today, his comments today suggest to me that he, at least, comprehends the
#buildingsafetycrisis
, and trade-offs better than his predecessor, especially re WWs. Cautiously optimistic. Let's see some action.
@IronEconomist
Agree, I really think such nicely designed 10-15 unit housing is great, and they're highly desirable for young people and families. Also, nudge wink etc, if sold as "share of freehold" they avoid most of the leasehold dumbness!
This is ground-breaking stuff today from
@michaelgove
on the
#claddingscandal
, re the major points. If actions follow today's comments—a big if—big changes are coming, and hopefully some relief, on the way for leaseholders, and the market for flats in general.
Thanks to
@BBCMorningLive
for taking this on.
@Mattallwright
is right, in principle, about the road to recourse for LHs. But in practice, it is all but impossible to hold FHs to account for excessive charges. LHs don't want to go to court, they want control via
@CommonholdNow
Retracting the advice notes would be a start, but the idea that this helps people already caught in this mess is naive.
@RobertJenrick
, you own this misery. At some point, you'll have to choose between your donors and the people affected. Choose wisely.
GBP is up, gilt yields are down, and the usual contrarian "Maybe it isn't that bad" takes are landing. Look, they might get lucky, but the first order conclusion is that they're simply incompetent. There is no masterplan; we shouldn't be looking for any. 1/2
Could the UK building safety crisis, and the way it has exposed the perils of leasehold, be the most mishandled public policy and legislation endeavour in post WWII UK history? It has to be close. It drives a stake through the heart of the homeowner dream that is the key pillar
I see that LVMH is issuing bonds to pay for Tiffany—yield 0 to 1%—just in time for the
@ecb
's resumption of corporate bond purchases in the primary market. Yes, the ECB *will* directly finance part of this transaction, lifting the EZ NIIP in the process. I love capitalism!
If you look through the website of this new initiative, you will eventually come across my mugshot. I am happy to help Harry and Karolina behind the scenes to driven this agenda forward. 1/2
🚨 ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨 Fired up by the abject failure of the Queen’s Speech last year to introduce a Bill to liberate the estimated 10 million existing leaseholders, today we launch
@CommonholdNow
to force an end to leasehold (and fleecehold) in the King’s Speech this November. (1/5)
The
@RFAssociation
is now straight up lying in their campaign. It is factually incorrect and disingenuous to claim that a cap on ground rent would hit maintenance budgets. These are covered by service charges, which represent their own unique extortionary problem. 1/2
🚨PROJECT FEAR UPDATE🚨
Big Freeholders are becoming increasingly hysterical and unhinged in a last bid attempt to scupper ground rent reform.
These ads are being displayed across the political blogosphere.
Ministers and journalists must not fall for this fake news.
In case anyone is wondering why many of us are on tenterhooks today working every angle we have to help the Leasehold bill goes through, this is the kind of sh't we're trying to clean up; -> 1/2
You can fight the market if the EU/ECB is on your side, you can fight the EU/ECB if the market is on your side. If both is against you, you'll lose. Anyway, carry on Mr. Salvini.
The sad truth of this misery is that
@team_greenhalgh
and
@michaelgove
, however their good intentions, are playing catch-up on every level. They need a cheque, and a big one, from HMT to get ahead of the game. Until then, they will be re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. 1/2
Jeremy Clarkson is snared in the
#BuildingSafetyCrisis
"the insurance premium has leapt from £6,000 a year to a staggering £80,000."
@JeremyClarkson
ours has gone up from £23,000 to £350,000.
#leaseholders
up shit creek with no oar, boat or life jacket.
@anthonyboutall
Of course he uses a private dentist, which does everyone else with anywhere near a normal paying job, if they want actual timely treatment, that is.
A fantastic analysis by
@jburnmurdoch
in the
@FinancialTimes
on the two tier property market in the UK where flats are second rate due to leasehold and the fire safety scandal; . Go Read 1/2
@JXB101
@JeremyWarnerUK
This is interesting; we seem to be moving from various stages of denial, chief among which is 1) don't talk down Britain and 2) look at how bad Europe is, to acceptance. Interestingly, a referendum to re-join isn't the answer, I think. Getting rid of the Tories just might be. 1/2
Back from holiday, in Ibiza. Three observations. 1) Spanish tourism, Balearic/Canaries, is humming. 2) Pre-travel Covid testing is a glorious racket. I can't wait for the investigative journalism post mortem on how much we've been fleeced. 1/2
Another deliciously contradictory aspect of this rubbish by the
@RFAssociation
is; how can GR simultaneously be crucial for the upkeep of buildings *and* represent a potential "£30bn" hit to pensions.
#doublecounting
. Don't fall for it
@michaelgove
and
@hmtreasury
I feel icky amplifying this sector disinformation being pumped out across SW1 websites.
But the
@RFAssociation
must be held to account.
It is a nonsense to suggest freeholders - who only own 2.5% capital value in a block - are vital for flat living. They don’t exist elsewhere!
To claim that helping this gentleman, and others like him, is impossible because it violates the property rights of freeholders or to brush his plight away with "caveat emptor" is shameful. It is a *political* choice to stand up for him, and others like him; a long-overdue one!
I've been having some very dark thoughts. I'm not really coping my homes a mess. I have to stay in a job I hate just in case I have borrow to pay Irwell Valley £10.5k. I'm covering maternity for a colleague as well. I'm so drained each day and I can't quit. This is my reality.
Yes! UK housing reform starts with reforming leasehold, or it doesn't start at all. Helping people to buy their first home is noble. But first, we must detoxify the lower rungs of the housing ladder so that your first home is truly a step up, and not a leasehold trap which brings
Oh come on
@UKLabour
!!
Voters need hard factual promises not hot air
Why can't you commit to enforcing
#commonhold
for all flats
Regulation of managing agents
Retrospective reform of lease extension/FH purchase to be affordable?
FTB s stand no chance without these
@NLC_2019
Seeing a lot of responses of horror to this piece. It just scratches the surface. Plenty of "long" leases which are now duds due to their ground rent terms, making them negative-carry assets. The good news is that
@UKLabour
has the power to solve it via the activation of
#LAFRA
.
Having new elections in Italy with the sole purpose of deciding on whether to stay in the euro or not would make the Brexit ref, and it’s aftermath, look like a cake walk.
Italian 2-year yields are at 2% ... this is open mockery of the
@ecb
forward guidance, never mind the 10y spread, which is bad enough (bunds are being shot too mind). The market is calling out the ECB; will it answer? I genuinely think this is a tipping point.
French fresh food prices rising by 18.1% y/y ... there is your increase in households' inflation expectations, in case you were wondering. Does it matter? Well, only if you're poor ... ;)
What we are seeing here is the death of the market for residential ground rents as an investment vehicle, and unlike the warnings about a crash in the pound and other UK assets as markets fear "Mugabenomics", markets as a whole are unbothered. As they should be; residential
🐔A PLC ground rent grazer suspends dealing following govt consultation on banning ground rent🐔
TIME:Freehold, one of the few publicly listed investors, has stopped dealings in its shares.
Designed to scare govt?
The sky hasn’t fallen in. Govt, don’t do a ‘Chicken Little’!
Nothing has been learned, it seems. I am hoping
@michaelgove
wipes the slate clean—which would include killing this idea—and comes up with something better. A loan, nevermind one capped at £50pm, won't work; leaseholders can't pay 1/2
1/7
#forcedloans
Horrified to see Homes England advertising for an 18 month fixed term employee to oversee development of loans for 11-18 metre buildings (advert here: )
Every time a member of Lords clutch their pearls about "retrospective" action in leasehold, a fairy dies. What do they think happens with *existing* leases/contracts when they make prospective changes?! They become increasingly worthless.
The lower rung of the housing ladder ladies and gentlemen. This has absolutely nothing to do with people wanting gardens, or people not liking flats. The surge in rates isn't helping anyone, but this issue is mainly a result of the catastrophic handling by the government of the
To understand the grotesqueness of this, all you have to look at is the incentives. The freeholder/HA has a strong incentive to jack up costs. It is virtually impossible to hold them accountable, and if the shared owners can't pay, the HA/freeholder can ultimately reclaim the
£1700 PER MONTH....IN SERVICE CHARGES ALONE.
IN A HOUSING ASSOCIATION FLAT.
They pay rent, which also goes up every year, plus a mortgage on top of this.
@michaelgove
tinkering around the edges isn't enough.
@PhilH23
@RagsMartel
@Lees_Martina
From today's King's Speech: "Draft legislation will be published on leasehold and Commonhold reform". One sentence with huge significance for millions of leaseholders up and down the country. Thanks to
@Keir_Starmer
@AngelaRayner
and
@mtpennycook
for making this a priority!
Reading through 2024 outlooks. Everyone is super bearish Europe, as in EURUSD sub 1.05 bearish, wholesale underperformance of EZ assets bearish etc. All fair, but this does feel like a very consensus idea at this point. Not a lot of imagination.
Another timely article on the misery and challenges that is leasehold. Awareness is growing, which hopefully will drive momentum for change. There are no excuses for
@Conservatives
and
@UKLabour
not to implement the necessary reform.
🔴Government ‘Must Defy’ Developers’ Calls to Drop Vital Leasehold Overhauls
Housing secretary Michael Gove is facing pressure to abandon popular plans to reform England and Wales’ feudal leasehold system, reports
@josiahmortimer
Amendments to the leasehold bill are coming in thick and fast, and encouragingly they're mostly pro-leasehold (what I have seen that is). It increases the chance that the bill won't be watered down, on balance. Thanks again to
@mtpennycook
for driving this matter forward.
And so it begins. Freeholders are fortifying in their final bastion of resistance; that leasehold reform, in this case capping ground rents at 0.1% of the freehold value of the flat/house, is a violation of their property rights, and thus illegal. This will be their Alamo. 1/n
The RFA’s Mick Platt has responded to reports that a future leasehold reform bill from the Government could include proposals such as capping ground rents at 0.1% of the freehold value.
Read the statement below 👇
I am quite literally screaming. One of the main reasons reason why families can't buy the larger home they, want is because they can't sell their current leasehold, due primarily to the tenure. The lower rung of the ladder is broken. You want Help to Sell; reform leasehold! 1/2
Angela Rayner responds: “The Chancellor now has serious questions to answer about his involvement in determining crucial policies on ground rents and whether they would have a direct personal impact on his vast property portfolio."
cc
@michaelgove
,
@lisanandy
and
@mtpennycook
... it is embarrassing that this is happening in modern Britain. You have the power to change this, regardless of what side of the divide you're sitting on in parliament, and you should, quickly.
How is it that the legal system in a modern, prosperous Britain, could allow the owner of a building to tear its roof off without permission of those who paid for the right to occupy space below? And still insist it is not financially responsible for damages?
@CommonholdNow
This is the inevitable result of the government's decision to create a two-tier market with its ground rent reform. Prospective changes make matters *worse* for existing long leases; this is obvious for anyone with eyes to see. cc
@michaelgove
and
@luhc
🚨Leasehold properties becoming harder to sell🚨
78% of agents said “leasehold property with an escalating ground rent would struggle to sell, even if priced correctly.
Evidence a two-tier market now exists. 2022 Ground Rent Act didn’t go far enough
1/2
All in, this leaseholder will be looking at around £20-to-25K to extend his lease, 20-to-25% of which will be his freeholder's legal fees(!), which he *absolutely* has to do if he ever wants to sell his flat (worth 195K) and or remortgage with a different lender. This is the
Thought I will provide updates on my lease extension I am currently going through for the benefit of other leaseholders in similar situation.
#leasehold
I have had 2 sales not go through on £195,000 flat in Teesside because the ground rent is £390 a year classing it as an AST
For the first time in a long time, the ECB is coming under a lot of pressure to pivot dovishly this week; Knot's apparent change of heart, awful PMIs, as well as of course inflation which is now easing, so will they? 1/3
This is gaslighting, pure and simple. It is embarrassing that
@mhclg
over and over again denies the very predictable reality and consequences of its own advice notes and recent legislation.
@TheSundayTimes
reports misleading and inaccurate info on the progress to remediate unsafe buildings. Our priority is making sure residents are safe by removing dangerous cladding from the highest risk buildings as quickly as possible. Our response:
We are told that leasehold is necessary because professional freeholders are needed to maintain buildings. The low-resolution counterargument is that many people could hardly do any worse if they had control via Commonhold. 1/2
Today’s
@BRE_Group
and
@thetimes
report shows poor housing costs the NHS £1.4bn each year. This is why we founded Commonhold Now - to push for a fairer, more equitable system of property ownership that prioritises homeowners’ rights and wellbeing. (1/4)
Water, or in this case bad actors, will find a way. Scrap ground rent you say; how about an exit fee when you want to sell your home? It is in everyone's interest that this kind of behaviour is outlawed ->
@CommonholdNow
Germany with another fiscal package on the energy crisis, this time 2% of GDP. The macro policy mix is shifting indeed. Granted the windfall tax means the net number is smaller, but still. 1/2
That this nightmare has not yet been solved to the benefit of those who bought these homes in good faith, and with warranty protection, is an atrocity. The developer, warranty provider and freeholder should be ashamed, and someone ought to throw the book at them. cc
@michaelgove
"We're just scared it's all going to collapse one day, with us in it, and we will die," Agar Grove resident tells me. They invested life savings only to end up with crumbling, leaking flats. Better consumer protections and accountability urgently needed