Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1 Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 years

Disney stops paying 100,000 workers, roughly half its workforce, even as it protects executive bonus schemes and a $1.5 billion dividend payment due in July.

Disney stops paying 100,000 workers to save $500m a month

Theme park owner risks reputational damage as it slashes costs more severely than rivals

www.ft.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

5 years

The U.S. Treasury saw a 31% drop in corporate tax revenues last year, almost twice the decline official budget forecasters had predicted. Receipts were projected to rebound sharply this year, but so far they’ve only continued to fall.

Big businesses paying even less than expected under GOP tax law

Though profits remain up and the economy is strong, total corporate taxes are at the lowest levels seen in more than 50 years.

www.politico.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Did quantitative tightening just end? The Fed’s balance sheet grew by about $300 billion in the past week as the U.S. sought to backstop deposits at regional banks.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields is now the most inverted since 1981:

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Powell to markets: "We're not cutting rates this year." Markets to Powell: "Yes you are."

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

The pound is in free fall. It hits a new record low and is quickly heading toward parity with the US dollar.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

The gap between 2-year & 10-year Treasury yields is the most inverted, the most negative, since the early 1980s.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

Food prices are soaring at a record pace, rising another 13% in March.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

The U.S. yield-curve inversion deepens.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 years

Wuhan, where the global pandemic began, reported its first cluster of new infections since a strict quarantine was relaxed in early April. This highlights once again the likelihood of rolling outbreaks around the world until there's a vaccine.

Wuhan reports first new coronavirus cases since end of lockdown | Free to read

Cluster of infections prompts fear of second wave in Chinese city where disease started

www.ft.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

If an inverted yield curve still functions as a telltale sign of recession to come, then the idea of a "soft landing" or "no landing" is getting more & more fraught. The inversion in the benchmark 2-10s U.S. yield curve has plumbed to new depths following today's CPI print (1/4)

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 years

I got my older son a prepaid debit card I could control and track. He immediately transferred $20 to savings and said, “How much interest are you going to pay me?” He suggested 2%. I said, “It’s time you learned about monetary policy.”

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

A benchmark U.S. yield curve becomes even more inverted, to the most inverted since 1981.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

5 years

My 10-year-old son tonight: “I want to put my money in a bank, so they can lend it out and then pay me extra. Right? Isn’t that how it works?” Me: “Well, that’s complicated right now...”

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

5 months

Banks are pocketing real money by borrowing money from the Fed's newest backstop facility, which charges a lower rate, and then parking it at another unit of the Fed, which pays higher interest. Banks are borrowing record amounts from this new facility.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

The reason traders are worried about contagion in the banking sector: financial firms have big stockpiles of "held to maturity" bonds that don't end up on their financial statements, but are losing market value and flag regulators' attention if sold in bulk. h/t @bloombergtv

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

China and India have swooped in to buy roughly the same volume of Russian oil that would have gone to the West. Oil prices are so high that Russia is making even more money now from sales than it did before the war began.

Western Move to Choke Russia’s Oil Exports Boomerangs, for Now (Published 2022)

With China and India buying the Russian oil shunned by the West in an effort to force an end to the Ukraine invasion, Moscow is earning more now than it did before the war.

www.nytimes.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

9 months

The bond market is telling the Fed it's done with rate hikes. There's just a 15% chance of a September rate hike being priced into fed funds futures, and a 21% chance of one in November. The Fed is now expected to start cutting rates in early 2024, according to market pricing

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

3 years

Global food prices were up 33% in August from a year earlier. Food is now more expensive than almost anytime in the past six decades: UN data.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

The divide between the Fed and bond traders is getting wider. Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President Bullard yesterday, say the economy is strong and rates need to go higher. Bonds are rejecting that, with yields on 6-month T-bills falling to the lowest since November.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

London has lost its rank as Europe’s biggest stock market to Paris. The gap between the two markets has been narrowing since the Brexit vote in 2016.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Steepest U.S. yield curve inversion since 1982: US 2-year yields are now nearly 63 basis points above rates on 10-year notes.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

8 months

"31% of all US government debt outstanding, or $7.6 trillion, will mature over the next year:" Apollo's Torsten Slok

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

U.S. 30-year mortgage rates keep climbing, now to 6.81%, the highest in 16 years:

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Traders are betting that the collapse of Silicon Valley, Silvergate & Signature banks will prod the Fed into substantially slowing rate hikes. They now are pricing in a terminal Fed funds rate of 5.1%, from 5.7% on Thursday. US 2-year yields have fallen more than 50bp in 3 days

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

9 months

US interest expenses have surged by about 50% in the past year, to nearly $1 trillion on an annualized basis.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

Within a 24-hour period this week, there will be 16 central bank rate decisions, including from the U.S., UK, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan, Switzerland, Norway, South Africa, Egypt and Taiwan.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 years

China's economy is slowing more than analysts had expected on almost all fronts.

China’s Investment Growth Slows to a Record Low

The engines of China’s economy are sputtering, with exports falling, factory output slowing, investment growth at a record low and consumption coming off the boil.

www.bloomberg.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 years

The US federal minimum wage is worth 70% of what it was in 1968 and about a third of what it would be had it kept pace with productivity. This is especially relevant because in recent years, job growth has been concentrated in the lowest-paying industries.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

The Fed has allowed its balance sheet to shrink by nearly $400 billion from the peak earlier this year, to $8.6 trillion as of the latest data today.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

6 months

The more Fed Chair Jay Powell speaks, the more the market hears that the US central bank is done with rate hikes in this economic cycle. US 2-year yields plunge.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

The question for the Fed this morning isn't whether to hike 25bp or 50bp this week. It's when do they start cutting rates, at least according to fed funds futures, which have priced out rate cuts and priced in rate cuts as soon as June.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

6 months

Since 2020, US groceries are up 25%, used cars climbed 35% and rents roughly 20%. In 2020, a survey showed a 4-person household spent an average of $238.32 in a week on food at home. A similar survey in 2023 showed that figure had jumped 32% to $315.22

Just How Bad Is the US Cost of Living Squeeze? We Did the Math

Prices of nearly everything — from rent to groceries to utilities — remain far higher than before the pandemic

www.bloomberg.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 months

Yield curves are rapidly normalizing. Yields on 10-year notes are now solidly above those on 5-year notes after more than a year of inversion.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

The 2-10s U.S. yield curve is now the most inverted since the early 1980s.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

7 months

Yields on 10-year Treasuries are now almost equal to the trailing 12-month earnings yield on the S&P 500 index. This is the first time that's the case going back to 2002.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

August saw the biggest monthly drop in U.S. job openings since April 2020.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Libor just surpassed 5% for the first time in more than 15 years.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Central bank gold purchases hit the highest since 1967.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

The euro hits 0.95 per dollar.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

3 years

This is what happens when central banks squash the risk of corporate defaults by suppressing borrowing costs: the difference between junk and high-quality credit rates shrinks dramatically. The yield gap between the two is now near the smallest on record.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

The Fed typically raises rates until something breaks.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

Deutsche Bank now forecasts a deeper recession for Europe next year. “We are revising the euro area GDP forecast for 2023 from -0.3% to -2.2%:” DB analysts in a note today

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

9 months

Saudi Arabia’s stockpile of US Treasuries has fallen 41% since early 2020, to the lowest level in more than six years. China sold $11.3 billion of the debt in June to bring its holdings of US Treasuries to the lowest level since mid-2009.

Saudi Hoard of US Treasuries at Six-Year Low in Embrace of Risk

Saudi Arabia’s stockpile of US Treasuries fell to the lowest level in more than six years, as the kingdom allocates more of its oil wealth to riskier assets.

www.bloomberg.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

US 2-year yields exceed 5% for the first time since 2007.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

"A record amount of stimulus is about to be withdrawn from the global economy...From May 2022 to May 2023, Morgan Stanley economists expect G4 central bank balance sheets to shrink by $2 trillion, four times the largest 12-month decline ever, from 2018-19:" MS's Andrew Sheets

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

9 months

Rates on 30-year mortgages in the US are now the highest since 2000, at 7.53%. h/t @tomkeene One key question right now is when this will start to drag on home prices in a more substantial way.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Traders are now pricing in nearly 100bp of rate cuts in the next 12 months:

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

Core U.S. inflation comes in hotter than expected, at the highest levels since 1982. Stocks and bonds tank.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

3 months

The Bloomberg Commodities index has fallen to the lowest since 2021.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

Ray Dalio sees rates rising “toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range.” He calculates that an increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices.

Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%

Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.

www.bloomberg.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

US rents are now declining on a month over month basis.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

“The Hong Kong market is seeing a panic selling moment.”

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 years

“Stimulus is going into asset price inflation, not CPI. And the build-up of ever larger asset price bubbles itself pins down the rates mkt..This combination creates a dangerous environment” where investors are compelled to abandon fundamentals & follow the money: Citi’s Matt King

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

21 days

Yields on 10-year Treasuries have been above the S&P 500 earnings yield for three straight weeks. This is the first time we're seeing this since 2002: Jonestrading's Michael O'Rourke

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

The gap between 30-year & 10-year Treasury yields inverts for the first time since a brief inversion in 2006. This indicates slow growth for a very long time:

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

8 months

China's yuan is weakening vs the dollar to near the lowest since 2007.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

JPMorgan reported its highest quarterly net interest income ever and raised its guidance for the year. This is the money the bank earns on loans minus what it pays out for deposits. So now cue the discussion around why banks aren't paying more on customer deposits....

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest since 1969, at 3.4%.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

9 months

US money-market assets have reached a new record of $5.5 trillion.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

8 months

Credit markets are suddenly painting a less rosy view of the future forward. Yesterday, as stocks plunged and Treasury yields rose, credit spreads also increased. US investment-grade bond yields are now at the highest levels going back to Nov., and edging toward post-2009 highs.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Where's all the money going that's being withdrawn from bank deposit accounts? Here's some of it: The two-week increase in outstanding U.S. money market funds has been the biggest since April 2020, with the total surging to a record $5.13 trillion: ICI data

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

The last time we saw this amount of implied volatility in US Treasury yields was in December 2008.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 years

Berkshire Hathaway has been selling stocks & stockpiling even more cash. “If Buffett himself isn’t seeing opportunities, even in his own stock, what are we to think about the recent market selloff? Is it not a buying opportunity for long-term investors?”

Buffett Stays on Sidelines With Cash Rising to $137 Billion

Warren Buffett has been waiting years for stocks to look more attractive. He apparently didn’t think the first-quarter plunge was that opportunity.

www.bloomberg.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

9 months

The US Treasury selloff has been driven by long-dated notes, not those most sensitive to Fed policy. This suggests two things: traders expect inflation to stay higher for longer and they question whether the Fed is truly going to raise rates high enough to achieve 2% inflation

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

Let's call it quantitative stasis for now, not quantitative tightening. The Fed's balance sheet:

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

9 months

"I strongly suspect that the bond bull market that began in the early 1980s is over...The steady economic expansion that followed the 2008 financial crisis is no longer relevant. The paradigm has shifted, and higher yields are back:" Ex-NY Fed's Dudley

Goodbye to the Bull Market for US Treasury Bonds

The paradigm has shifted. Higher yields are back.

www.bloomberg.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

5 months

US investment-grade bond yields have just had the biggest two-day drop since April 2020.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

5 months

US financial conditions are the most accommodative they've been since the Fed started hiking rates last year, according to the Bloomberg US Financial Conditions index.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

9 months

Market-implied inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years have risen to the highest levels in more than a year. Traders are starting to game out a future with sustainably higher inflation and higher long-term bond yields.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

The chart that many analysts are watching closely: the M2 money supply, or the unprecedented rise and fall of the amount of cash-like assets in the financial system. This has fairly directly correlated with the rise & fall of more speculative assets, like bitcoin.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

This is notable. Everyone in Switzerland is blaming regional US banks as the catalyst. If they're right, then that suggests a much bigger problem. How much money is flowing out of the weaker banks? And where is it going? Are JPM & BofA just getting trillions of new deposits?

Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Further to earlier tweets: Virtually everyone at this high-level Swiss press conference--government officials, regulator, central bank governor, and executives of the two banks--blamed the US banking sector turmoil for being the catalyst for the financial turmoil in #Switzerland .

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Good news for the economy is bad news for markets. A jobs beat sends stocks tumbling.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

China will grow just 2% this year, vs a 2.8% expansion in U.S. GDP this year: Bloomberg Economics. That would be the first time since 1976 that China trailed the U.S. in growth.

US Growth Seen Outpacing China’s for First Time Since 1976

China’s coronavirus lockdowns mean its economic growth may undershoot the US for the first time since 1976, in a role reversal with potential political reverberations in both Beijing and Washington.

www.bloomberg.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

“A Fed pivot, or the anticipation of one, can still lead to sharp rallies. Just keep in mind that the light at the end of the tunnel you might see if that happens is actually the freight train of the oncoming earnings recession that the Fed cannot stop:” MS’s Mike Wilson

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 months

US financial conditions are now the most accommodative in two years, based on the Bloomberg index.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

11 months

Yield curves around the world are inverting the most in decades. German 2-year yields are the highest versus 10-year rates since 1992.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest since April 2022 last week. Where's the labor market weakness that everyone talks about?

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

8 months

American workers are striking at a pace not seen in nearly a quarter-century. Last month, large stoppages from strikes resulted in 4.1 million missed days of work, the biggest monthly total since August 2000: Labor Department data

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

8 months

US 10-year real yields are bumping up against the highest levels since 2009:

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

In 2019, pre-pandemic, households saved 8.8% of their disposable income. That saving rate jumped to 16.8% in 2020, the highest on record. In 2021 the saving rate moderated to 11.8%, and in September it stood at 3.1%, near its lowest level since 2008.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

3 years

The measure of inflation most watched by the Fed surges to the highest since 1992. U.S. personal consumption expenditure core price index:

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

3 years

Here's a hedge fund that expects to hold about $1 billion in Bitcoin and Ether by early next year. “This is the most interesting macro trade I’ve seen in my career.”

Bitcoin Whale Emerges With $1 Billion, Alan Howard’s Backing

A hedge fund specializing in volatility bets has emerged as one of the largest investors in Bitcoin after quietly buying more than $600 million in cryptocurrencies and joining forces with Alan...

www.bloomberg.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

The Fed hikes by 25bp. US 2-year yields ...... fall below 4% again

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

9 months

Average US gasoline prices are now at the highest levels since October 2022.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 years

"The next housing crisis is here, and this time, it’s about rentals." About half of the 43 million rental units in the U.S. are owned by small businesses that face insolvency as tenants fail to pay rent.

If Landlords Get Wiped Out, Wall Street Wins, Not Renters

Bans on evictions and rent strikes could push out small investors.

www.bloomberg.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has reached the most inverted since the early 1980s.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

As traders debate how quickly the Fed will withdraw monetary support, the U.S. central bank keeps boosting its balance sheet to new all-time highs.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

3 years

German banks are essentially telling customers to take their deposits elsewhere because the firms can't afford to keep absorbing the negative interest rates they're being charged at the ECB.

Banks in Germany Tell Customers to Take Deposits Elsewhere

The pandemic savings glut has flooded German banks, encouraging them to charge negative rates on deposits and to offer customers ways to transfer money to other parts of Europe.

www.wsj.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

9 months

Real yields on 10-year Treasuries closed yesterday at the highest since 2009.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

8 months

A Chicago Fed paper finds that most of the effects from interest-rate hikes have already been passed through to the economy, and that current rate levels are sufficient to bring inflation back down to 2% by mid-2024 without recession.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

4 years

@BGrueskin The sidewalk was eerily free of debris. Metal grates sheathed all the storefronts. Those men who always talked too loudly outside the bodega at 10:37pm on a Monday were gone. No voices replaced theirs. Or noises. Except for ambulance sirens. Incessant sirens. And nothing else.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

2 years

Inflation re-accelerated, even as wage gains slow down. Real wages on a weekly basis plunge to the most negative in data going back to 2006.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

3 years

The Fed will once again allow Wall Street banks to resume stock buybacks. JPMorgan immediately announces $30 billion of share repurchases; its shares pop in after-market trading.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

3 months

Wow. Massive jobs number. Upside surprise on wage growth. Yields up up and away

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

7 months

"Maybe China is behind the rise in US long rates...China has fewer dollars to recycle into Treasuries. In fact, China has been selling $300bn in Treasuries since 2021, and the pace of Chinese selling has been faster in recent months," selling $40bn since April: Apollo's Slok

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

Somehow traders took a hot U.S. jobs print, at least on the headline level, as reason to lower their expectations for terminal Fed funds rates. I don't understand this.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

European bank stocks have given up all their gains for 2023, falling more than 20% since early March. They're down almost 5% today, with UBS shares falling more than 13%.

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

8 months

Detroit automakers are estimated at an average of $66 an hour, compared with $45 at Tesla, which isn’t unionized. Meeting all of the UAW’s initial demands would boost average hourly labor costs to $136 for the Detroit companies: Wells Fargo

Whatever the UAW Strike Outcome, Elon Musk Has Already Won

The Detroit automakers entered labor talks at a cost disadvantage to Tesla.

www.wsj.com

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Lisa Abramowicz

@lisaabramowicz1

1 year

There's still some concern about the banks, both in the U.S. as well as some of the larger ones in Europe. Deutsche Bank credit-default swaps are still blowing out:

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