Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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@Ophelia_honey

@jai_a_dehadrai

Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

From #Bloomberg . #markets #tech

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Today, it is 102 years since my dad was born. While he passed suddenly 42 years ago, his inspiration and influence are as strong today as they were then. I am eternally grateful to him for his love, his encouragement, his kindness, his support, and the example he set for us all.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

An independent #FederalReserve is critical to the well-being of the US #economy . Having said that, it is getting harder to justify such independence when four big operational errors (of analysis, forecasts, actions and communication) are accompanied by a lack of accountability.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

Judging from the images on the news of large crowds in public spaces, the next few weeks’ infection/hospitalization numbers out of some US states will shed light on the following: either we are re-opening with insufficient health safeguards or the lockdown was a big overreaction.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

If you have a few minutes, may I please ask you to read this (link below)? This is only the second time since I've been tweeting that I make such an ask...and do so because,by being informed about what's ahead, we stand a better chance of responding better

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Awful US inflation data Headline at 9.1%, well above the median forecast of 8.8% and highest since 1991 Core also higher-than-expected. Details appear equally worrisome Bottom line: Further blow to economic and social well-being. Highlights Fed’s worst policy mistakes in decades

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

9 months

In a strange move, #Fitch just downgraded the US sovereign #ratings from AAA to AA+, with a stable outlook. The #rating agency's justification is set out in this statement (link below). I am very puzzled by many aspects of this announcement, as well as by the timing. I suspect I…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

A most concerning chart, if not the most concerning — economically and socially. #economy #food #inequality #inflation

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

The cover of The Economist. #economy #markets #centralbanks #fed #federalreserve @TheEconomist #EconTwitter

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Having lost control of the narrative on inequality and inflation, the #Fed faces further damage to its reputation due to their interaction: The most vulnerable segments of our society are being hit hard by #inflation and also face the risk of an income shock due to a policy error

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

May I please ask you a favor? May we all make a point of thanking those who continue to show up to work and allow various services and production processes to continue? From our stores and banks to factories and the like, they are taking higher personal health risks for our sake,

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

What if it's not just the risk of "zombie companies" eroding the productivity and dynamism of the economy...but also zombie #markets mis-pricing risk/mis-allocating capital due to heavy official intervention? There are better ways to help people and minimize future hits to growth

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Remembering my amazing mom.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

How late is the #Fed ? Very: Having misunderstood the inflation dynamic, it eroded its credibility Having missed a wide-open window last year to adjust policies when economic growth was on an upswing, it no longer has good policy options It has lost control of its policy narrative

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

5 months

On this day, December 12th, we lost our dad to a heart attack. It was 42 years ago, and yet it still feels like yesterday. I have been, remain, and will always be profoundly thankful to him for … All that he sacrificed to support our education, The value system he cherished…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

6 months

This sort of yield volatility is not normal for a security — the US 10 year government bond — that serves as an important benchmark for the financial system, domestically and beyond. It is also not desirable as it undermines constructive financial intermediation, harms the…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

From a friend in #NewYork .

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Message is clear from the negative US GDP print (-0.9%) and unfavorable miss on jobless claims: The US #economy is slowing at a significant rate. Add to that the 8.7% price change in today's data and the bottom line is clear: Deepening stagflation and flashing red #recession risk

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

Can you tell I was taken totally out of my comfort zone! I tried, and with no technical support. The family ate it all. Talk about being polite and supportive!!

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

. @WarrenBuffet on Why he's not buying stocks in size: sensitivity to tail events and the '08 reminder "we don't see all the problems the first day." On whether others should buy now: Only if you expect to hold for a long time and are financially and psychologically ready to do so

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Very best way to work. Thank you Bosa! #dogs #dogsoftwitter

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

3 years

Just came across this ... from 1969!!

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

8 months

Brent oil prices getting closer to $90 …

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

5 years

... and the perfect Sunday morning shirt after yesterday’s Champions league final in #Madrid . @ChampionsLeague @UEFA @MoSalah @lfc #egypt

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Having gone through the data again this weekend, I feel even more strongly that 50 bps would have been better last week (reasons detailed in my Jan 26th @opinion post). I hope dearly the Fed hasn't, for the 3rd time in this hiking cycle, missed a window for timely policy actions.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Further to earlier tweets: Virtually everyone at this high-level Swiss press conference--government officials, regulator, central bank governor, and executives of the two banks--blamed the US banking sector turmoil for being the catalyst for the financial turmoil in #Switzerland .

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

A year ago, the #Fed was confident about #inflation , asserting that it would be back around 2% by the end of 2021. Today, inflation is 3-4 times that level and likely to remain high into 2023. Today's Fed, it is confident about a "softish landing." Let's hope so. A lot at stake.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

11 months

My daughter just sent me this from 17 years ago! Looks like a late-night or early-morning joint session. Somehow, and despite the specialized keyboard, I doubt we were analyzing Bloomberg data! I suspect we were either looking at family photos or reading a picture book online!

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

8 months

Keep an eye on this one — the US 10-year yield. #economy #markets #EconTwitter #investing #investors

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

5 months

Well, that didn’t take long. Once again, Fed officials seem forced to walk back public comments that moved markets in a major way. It remains to be seen whether this will succeed given the extent to which Wednesday’s “Powell Pivot” has unleashed several market technicals.…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

A stunning US jobs report highlighting the strength of the labor market and its complexities. Job rose by 517,000 for Jan compared to the consensus forecast of 189,000; the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low of 3.4% (3.8%). The puzzle: Wage growth came in as expected (0.3%).

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

6 months

Moodys on why it just changed the outlook on the Aaa credit rating of the US from stable to negative. @MoodysInvSvc #economy #markets #EconTwitter

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

With @JoeBiden now leading in #Georgia and expected to get the majority of the remaining votes, it's just a matter of time until the media declares him president-elect What follows will be an important and widely-watched test of America's democracy, legal system and social fabric

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

It’s the season: Virtually non-stop football on television for days, college and NFL! #holiday #holidays #football @nfl

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

7 months

"In terms of total returns, this is the biggest bond market rout in 150 years. Last year was in fact US bond investors’ worst year since 1871, with a total return of minus 15.7%, even worse than the annus horribilis of 2009. For 2023, the year-to-date return has been almost minus…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

3 years

Looking at Adam Smith who many regard as the “father of economics.”

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Extremely sad and tragic news out of Japan. The assassination of Shinzo Abe, Japan's former and longest-serving Prime Minister, robs the country and globe of a world-class leader. He leaves a legacy of bold policies, courage, and dedication to the welfare of his people May he RIP

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

7 months

The yield on the 10-year US government bond is currently trading above 4.70%. Simply put: Last year was about #markets adjusting to higher rates. This year is about markets adjusting to rates staying high for longer. The process of market adjustment is ongoing while that of the…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

Congratulations to Mohamed Salah for his 100th and 101st goals in England. @MoSalah @LFC

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

. #Fed 's balance sheet continues to increase, now very close to $9 trillion. It's very hard, if not impossible, to justify the #Fed pumping yet more #liquidity into the system via asset purchases. Officials should announce tomorrow an immediate end to #QE .

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Given how massively under-exposed stocks I was going into this selloff, I dipped a toe in this afternoon via a small handful of high-beta names Do I think the selling is over? I suspect not though, of course, I don't know any more than others I do sense some trading opportunities

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

Best evening home office ever!

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 months

This just popped up on my phone: A “daughter-father dance” from many, many years ago. What parents will do for their kids!!! 😀

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

This, from @BBCNews about food prices in the #UK , is an important reminder that #inflation is not about abstract numbers. It is a persistent real-world phenomenon that consistently erodes households' purchasing power and hits particularly hard the most vulnerable segments of…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

5 months

Stunning chart from the @WSJ .

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

. #Stocks just took a leg up on #FederalReserve Chair Jay #Powell characterizing financial conditions as having tightened quite a bit in the last year. (Not sure which index he is using. The most widely cited ones show overall financial conditions as loose as they were a year ago)

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

The Bank of Japan intervenes again, selling dollars to counter Yen weakness. #japan #fx #currency #economy #markets #yen

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

3 years

I remember my amazing dad on this #FathersDay Kind, caring and dedicated, he taught us the importance of education, respecting others, hard work, and giving back. He passed 40 years ago, yet his inspiration and guidance are with us every day A huge thanks to a very special father

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

5 months

Hard to believe but the yield on the 10-year US government bond, a global benchmark, is back at the same level that it started 2023! This at a time when the consensus expectations for US #growth is very different than a year ago; and there is greater sensitivity to bond issuance…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Some of the calculations on Twitter exaggerate the risks facing the banking system. While there are fragilities inherent to the US banking setup, they are containable via timely policy measures The risk is that such calculations fuel undue anxiety, amplifying systemic instability

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

7 months

At 5.20%, the yield on the US 2-year is at a level not seen since mid 2006. #economy #markets #econtwitter #bonds

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Analytically, think of today's equity losses as a new phase and not just a continuation of the earlier selloff At first, it was about rising interest rates and tightening financial conditions Now it's also about growth/earnings worries as inflation erodes living standards/profits

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

What a world we live in: I find myself checking the news regularly on a Sunday to see if wide-scale armed conflict has erupted between #Russia and #Ukraine . The global #economy and #markets are not ready to handle the strong stagflationary winds were such a conflict to break out.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Morocco does it again! By knocking out #Portugal , they are the first African and Arab team to make it to the semi-finals of the World Cup. #maroc #worldcup2022 #morocco #portugal #WorldCup

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

11 months

Goldman joins a small but growing group worried that inflation may not come down as fast as we would all hope for, and is needed for economic well-being. What is also interesting is that, within this group, almost everyone automatically assumes that this higher #inflation will be…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Another #inflation number that's above consensus expectation: #Germany 's PPI rose 25% in January, the highest since 1949. While energy prices played an important role... "Even excluding energy, producer prices were up 12 per cent, pointing to broadbased producer inflation" @FT

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

6 months

I've been asked repeatedly why the US administration’s approval rating on the economy remains so low among voters even though the US economy has consistently outperformed expectations in terms of growth and jobs. The quick one-word answer is, of course, inflation – and in three…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

As many of you know, I have felt for a few months now that the 2 year yield was the best indicator of what broader financial markets would do and why. Today’s comments by #FederalReserve Chair Powell pushed this yield to over 5% … 1 of 2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

It’s wonderful to be able to end the week with such a stunning southern Californian evening ... especially after such a highly uncertain and unsettling week for us all. Wishing you a restful weekend. #weekend #sunset #socal #california

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

It’s the weekend. Wishing you all a good one!

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

As next week's US CPI #inflation print may get very close to 9%, some will be quick to point out that this measure is backward-looking. Yes...but it Captures the pain that many are feeling, particularly the less fortunate segments of society; and Influences inflation expectations

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

Our own version of “moral hazard” deepens: Our pup now expects the water to be brought to her after the walk!

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

Two more of the joys I have found in working from home: Our wonderful pup kept me company under the desk while I was working ... and next to me while I took a nap. (To be more precise: I decided to be next to her for the nap, forgoing the sofa!). #dogs #pups #workingfromhome

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

3 months

Wondering how a small miss on the US #inflation numbers can result in such a spike in yields on US government #bonds (2- and 10-year below)? A lot of it has to do with the extent to which #markets had embraced, subject to limited critical thinking, the narrative of a very soft…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Once again, hotter than expected US #inflation numbers for both the core and headline measures… and, therefore, bad news for the #FederalReserve and #markets and, more importantly, the #economy and especially the most vulnerable segments of society. 1/2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

“💯% probability of a [US] recession:” Quite a statement from the Bloomberg economic modeling team. If indeed valid, the implications would extend well beyond the #economy , encompassing also financial, political, social and institutional credibility issues in the US and beyond.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

While it's possible that this may lead to better outcomes, it's far from probable. Neither country has the initial conditions to make this succeed and attract others. The best this initiative can hope for is that talk creates some political cover for much-needed economic reforms.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

A blunt fact remains when you step back from all the details on @CreditSuisse - @UBS deal #Switzerland 's second-largest bank--a bank that opened its doors for business in 1856 and was one of the 30 systemically important #banks around the world--will no longer exist as a standalone

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

3 years

Before I get asked again about #Bitcoins Back on Nov 29, '18, I bought some at $4,728,based not on a deep analysis but rather on the basis of technicals Also was a great way to get a feel for what's becoming a more popular holding I sold today,again not based on any deep analysis

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Worry for #Turkey is that this week's sharp #currency depreciation will fuel a vicious cycle of increased dollarization and worsening corporate currency mismatches. This would lead to further Lira weakness. With that, inflation goes even higher, hitting the poor particularly hard

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

Placing in historical context the latest CPI inflation print. #EconTwitter #economy #inflation #cpi @ft

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

9 months

China faces the risk of two major economic/financial problems coming together … and having them fuel and be amplified by financial instability: First, insufficient domestic growth drivers in the face of external headwinds; and Second, long-standing pockets of excessive debt and…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

5 months

He tried … Per the Bloomberg headline below, #FederalReserve Chair Powell tried to push back against market pricing of notable rate cuts next year noting “it would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

28 days

As the world nervously waits to see what happens next in the Middle East, it is now crystal clear that the region has shifted over the last six months from what some deemed as a relatively contained disequilibrium to a perilously unstable disequilibrium involving an increasing…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

3 years

A brilliant first sentence. The Economist is one of the very few that can think of such a clever way of conveying the global economy’s dispersion. #economy #growth #inflation #markets #centralbanks @TheEconomist

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

It's increasingly clear that the #UK came close to a consequential financial accident that would have had damaging economic spillovers, domestically and internationally The @BankOfEngland intervention averted that for now but can't reconcile the growing inconsistencies/imbalances

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 months

Gold is trading at another record high this morning, consistent with the market’s’ main takeaway from yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting — that is, the world’s most powerful central bank seems willing to tolerate higher inflation for longer. #economy #centralbanks #markets #gold

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

There's an inclination by some to dismiss the 17 million surge in jobless claims as quickly reversible, risking to under-appreciate current/future pain inflicted on many Re current:Look at lines outside food banks Future:Look at the complexities of when/how to restart the economy

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 month

US CPI inflation came in hotter than expected for the third straight month ... and the result is continued price pressure on consumers, which hits the poor hardest, and a sharp market reaction. Both headline and core prices rose 0.4%, bringing the annual measures to 3.2% and…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

3 years

So true. Thanks @AdamMGrant

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

3 years

One of my very favorite photos from several years ago: Taking my daughter to school — first day of first grade. 😀😀😀😀. #daughter #family #happiness #together #happydad #grateful #dad #daughterlove #parenting #school

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

For the history books: 1-week move in the yield on UK 30-year government bonds This 1-week journey —some 270 basis points from bottom to top and back—was essentially unthinkable for most economists market participants, and policymakers.(Remember, these are long duration UK bonds)

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

7 months

As many of you know, I have been uncomfortable about how extremely data-dependent this #FederalReserve has been, and remains...especially given the obvious point that its tools operate with a lag (together with its lack of strategic vision and an inappropriate Monetary Policy…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

. @WarrenBuffett on negative interest rates: -"It's the most interesting question I've ever seen in economics." "We may be facing the period in which we question the hypothesis on whether this can continue." -"We are doing things that we don't know the ultimate consequences."

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

. @BankOfEngland is off the sidelines with direct intervention in the government bond market: It just announced "temporary" purchases of long-dated UK #bonds . This for a central bank that was on the verge of doing QT and hike, illustrating the intensification of its policy dilemma

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

10 months

From the @WSJ : "Americans have flocked to cash-like investments, lured by higher returns after years of little income. Assets in money-market funds have surged to a record $5.5 trillion. Banks are increasingly using CDs to lure back depositors. And one of the most popular bond…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Some 50 years old and left at the end of the airfield … and yet … as elegant as ever. #concorde

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Perfect relaxation! Wishing you all a wonderful weekend. #dogs #DogsofTwittter #dogstagram

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

9 months

Once again, #China 's exports and imports contracted by more than consensus forecasts: Exports fell by 14.5% in July (year-on-year), worse than the consensus forecast of 12.5%; and Imports declined by 12.4%, a lot worse than the expected 5%. The numbers confirm that the #economy 's…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

The strong get stronger and the rich get richer while the weak get weaker and the poor struggle more. A larger disparity of wealth is one of the many awful outcomes of the #covid economic shock, a great unequalizer which is also worsening the inequality of opportunity and income.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

On this Father's Day, I remember with great love and gratitude my late father. For 23-years of my life, he was there to support and inspire me, stressing the importance of education, kindness, purpose, and enabling others. His inspiration has been a constant companion #fathersday

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

8 months

Remember this from a week ago? The yield on the US 10-year government bond is now trading at 4.55%, helping the dollar to appreciate above 106 as measured by the DXY index. Meanwhile, the broadening recognition that rates will be high for longer is fueling more discussions about…

Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

8 months

Keep an eye on this one — the US 10-year yield. #economy #markets #EconTwitter #investing #investors

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

7 years

So wonderful

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Today’s massive US market reactions to Jay Powell’s remarks highlight the communication challenge facing the Fed: The more the Chair tilts his remarks dovish,the greater the loosening of financial conditions and, potentially, the bigger the risk to meeting the inflation objective

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

4 years

Very hard to say whether the last 3-days are part of a bottom-formation for #markets or just a counter-trend move. Looked at Sept-Mar 2008/09 and picked two bounces in late Oct/Nov. Both amounted to around 17%. and both were erased thereafter. Bottom line: A really hard call.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

1 year

Away from the specifics of this case: The prolonged period of very cheap money and abundant liquidity encouraged some asset managers to offer relatively liquid products that invest in relatively illiquid assets. These products behave differently in a world of patchy #liquidity .

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

30 days

Gold prices are up again this morning, almost 1%, as more investors view it as a better hedge against geopolitical risks than government bonds due to US inflation concerns. Gold is also seeing support from central banks, some of whom are motivated by more than just inflation and…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

3 years

This @FT chart place in historical context the recent surge in US margin #debt in the midst of very low interest rates and ample liquidity. #markets .

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

6 months

So sad to hear the news of the passing of #CharlieMunger . My thoughts and prayers are with his family, his friends and colleagues at #BerkshireHathaway and, of course, his long-time business partner and friend @WarrenBuffett . For so many decades, the two of them led an investment…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

3 years

Thank you @BBCNews for replaying this in your best of 2020. I had missed it. It’s superb. A brilliant application of sport commentary to everyday dog activities. Thank you very much @MrAndrewCotter for this genius ... and for making me smile during a sad time.

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