Jonathan Ferro @FerroTV Twitter profile

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Carnage so far in 2022 Netflix -72.4% = worst year on record Facebook -43.9% = worst on record Amazon -36.8% = worst since '08 Tesla -30.5% = worst on record Microsoft -22.5% = worst since '08 Google -21.6% = worst since '08 Apple -17.5% = worst since '08

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

No longer QE or QT... It's Quantitative Confusion

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Fed: Hikes 75bps SNB: Hikes 50bps BoE: Hikes 25bps ECB: A plan to make a plan BoJ: Operation ostrich

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Fascinating moment in the presser. A journalist wrongly misleads Powell into thinking the market was still rallying and we're all getting real time insight into what he thinks about that... He's leaning hard against it.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

5 months

Happy Birthday to an absolute legend. Longtime partner on-air, a best friend off-air. You’re a national treasure TK and we’re all very lucky to have you. @tomkeene

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

Your 2023 S&P 500 forecasts: Deutsche Bank 4500 Oppenheimer 4400 BMO 4300 JPMorgan 4200 Jefferies 4200 Wells 4200 Evercore 4150 RBC 4100 Credit Suisse 4050 Goldman Sachs 4000 HSBC 4000 Citi 4000 BofA 4000 UBS 3900 Morgan Stanley 3900 Barclays 3725 SocGen 3650 BNP Paribas 3400

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“19 bear markets past 140 years...avg price decline = 37.3% & avg duration = 289 days… past performance no guide to future performance, but if it were, today's bear market ends Oct 19th '22 with S&P500 at 3000, Nasdaq at 10000; good news is many stocks already there” BofA

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

Lagarde says "we know we're not done" Powell says "we've got more work to do" Market hears "meh you're basically done"

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

11 months

The year so far January: soft landing! February: no landing! March: hard landing! April: credit crunch surely? May: it’s just mega cap tech June: it’s a bull market!!!!

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

June Inflation Estimates BNP Paribas 8.9% Citi 8.9% HSBC 8.9% TD 8.9% Goldman 8.9% Barclays 8.8% Credit Suisse 8.8% Jefferies 8.8% Morgan Stanley 8.8% SocGen 8.8% StanChart 8.8% Unicredit 8.8% Wells Fargo 8.8% Nomura 8.8% BofA 8.7% ING 8.7% JPMorgan 8.7% Natixis 8.6% Visa 8.6%

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

5 months

Powell Dec 1: it’s premature to talk about easing Powell Dec 13: we’re talking about the timing of easing Williams Dec 15: we aren’t really talking about it 🤦‍♂️

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Fed Rate Hike Guesses Barclays +75bps Deutsche Bank +75bps CapEcon +75bps Goldman +75bps JPMorgan +75bps Jefferies +75bps Nomura +75bps SocGen +75bps TD +75bps Wells +75bps BNP +50bps BofA +50bps Citi +50bps Credit Suisse +50bps HSBC +50bps Morgan Stanley +50bps StanChart +50bps

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Remember at the start of the year when Fed hikes = buy banks... JPMorgan -25.5% YTD Goldman -21.7% YTD Morgan Stanley -19.9% YTD Citigroup -22.9% YTD BofA -21.2% YTD

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

5 months

Signing out for the year. Big thanks for the partnership. Thank you for pushing me and thank you for making me smarter every single day. I hope you can all get away from the screens for a little bit and enjoy your families… Because nothing else matters. Merry Christmas.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

11 months

Lost my superhero two years ago today. You never stop missing loved ones. You don’t move on. You just do your best to try and move forward. As we approach father’s day, thinking of those who can’t make that call and thankful to all those giants who gave us someone to look up to.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Happy birthday @elerianm a great friend and exceptionally kind human being.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Democrats: It’s not a recession Republicans: It’s a recession Main St: Sure feels like one Wall St: It’s bad and that’s good Economists: NBER is our master

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

4 months

The Surveillance band is breaking up. From Monday @tomkeene will lead the radio show. @annmarie joins @lisaabramowicz1 and me on TV. Thrilled for AMH. Heartbroken to lose my longtime partner on-air. TK built a beast of a show and mornings will not be the same without him.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

It was December 1st a lifetime ago. Someone forced us to do radio together. Happy anniversary @tomkeene

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

How the consensus has shifted in 2022 -Fed won't hike much -Fed won't hike 50bp -Fed won't hike 75bp -Fed will pause in Sept -Small chance recession -50% chance recession -Recession but shallow

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

US March CPI estimates Credit Suisse 8.6% Morgan Stanley 8.6% Citi 8.6% Goldman 8.6% ING 8.6% Barclays 8.5% StanChart 8.5% Nomura 8.5% Unicredit 8.5% TD 8.5% Jefferies 8.5% Natixis 8.5% SocGen 8.4% BofA 8.4% Wells 8.4% Pantheon 8.4% BNP 8.3% Intesa 8.3% Berenberg 8.2%

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“stocks appear to have begun another material bear market rally. After that, we remain confident that lower prices are still ahead. In S&P 500 terms we think that level is close to 3,400, which is where both valuation and technical support lie” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

And for those wondering about how great the 2022 forecasts were...

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

The best sport in the world

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Bramo behind the scenes. Total diva.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

Logging off for the holidays. Thanks all for keeping me sharp and pushing me to get smarter. Have a wonderful Christmas and a very happy new year. YEAREND

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

“it is beginning to look more like a “no landing” scenario. Under the no landing scenario the economy does not slow down, and upside risks to inflation are coming back after the initial decline in inflation driven by supply chain improvements" Apollo's Torsten Slok

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

The S&P closing down 3.55% today after rallying 2.99% yesterday. Total waste of time trying to explain today. Nobody really has a clue.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

"Bear markets are like a Hall of Mirrors, designed to confuse investors and take their money. Trust YOUR fundamental process. For us, margins/earnings are likely to significantly disappoint whether there is a recession, or not" Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“we believe the S&P 500 will bottom near 3400 in our base case (50% probability) and 3000 in our bear case recession scenario (40% probability) before rebounding in the first half of next year as visibility around a growth reacceleration forms” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

I owe this man the world and miss him every single day. Thank you for giving me someone to look up to for the rest of my life. Happy father’s day.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

5 months

Chair Powell "we still have a way to go... nobody is declaring victory... that would be premature" Market ZzzzZZZzzzz Chair Powell just seconds later... "we discussed the timing of rate cuts" Market 👇

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Nasdaq 100 on Fed days Today: +4% June 15: +2.49% May 4: +3.41% March 16: +3.7%

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Fed decision-day performance January 26: S&P -0.15% March 16: S&P +2.24% May 4: S&P +2.99% June 15: S&P +1.46% July 27: +2.62%

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"We now expect hikes of 75bp in November, 50bp in December, followed by two 25bp rate hikes by March of next year... Our new terminal target range is 4.75-5.0%, up from 4.0-4.25% previously" BofA

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

6 months

WEEKEND @tomkeene edition

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

Credit Suisse 1.99

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

“After 475 basis points of hikes in the federal funds rate, all the Fed has to show for it is the S&P 500 15% off its lows, the unemployment rate at 3.4%, and underlying inflation still running hot… Forget higher for longer, we still need to get higher” @RenMacLLC

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

5 months

Thankful for family and friends. For TK. For Bramo’s gloom. Thankful for Jim Nantz. Thankful for all of you. Happy Thanksgiving!!

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"New ETFs with tickers NANC, KRUZ aim to track lawmakers’ stock buys, as ban on congressional trading looks unlikely before midterm elections"

New ETFs with tickers NANC, KRUZ aim to track lawmakers' stock buys, as ban on congressional...

An SEC filing outlines a plan for ETFs that track congressional buys and sells of stocks. There's a push to ban such trading, but a ban doesn't look imminent.

www.marketwatch.com

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

Happy birthday to a great friend and my longtime partner in absurdity. You are a total legend. We’re all very lucky to have you.

tom keene

@tomkeene

1 year

It was December 9th a lifetime ago. Our first domestic. ⁦ @bsurveillance ⁩

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

High yield spreads break through the wides of Dec 2018. This time, the Fed is not for turning.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Actual pre-show meeting

tom keene

@tomkeene

2 years

@FerroTV @tomkeene pre-show meeting @bsurveillance

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

“the bear market rally that began in October from reasonable prices and low expectations has morphed into a speculative frenzy based on a Fed pause/pivot that isn’t coming” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“It's a hurricane… Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there. Down the road. Coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Shoutout to @elerianm who said this yesterday "It’s way too early to say inflation has peaked"

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"Fed speakers sent a strong message that rather than approaching a dovish “pivot,” they are “nowhere near” finished... Tight labor markets and high wage and price inflation are likely to keep the Fed hiking aggressively - including by 75bp in September" Citi

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

The BoE is everything the Fed fears -A divided policy decision -Upside inflation risks -Downside growth risks -Seeing inflation peak at 10.2% -Seeing GDP contracting in 2023

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

$1 trillion question Why are stocks up on this?

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

"an English strategist moved back to London with a wife from New York; after three years someone asked the wife “what’s the best thing about living in London?” The wife replied “Paris.” And what’s the best thing about stocks in ’23? Bonds" BofA's Hartnett

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

Happy Thanksgiving to my American friends around the world. Very thankful to you all for always making this alien feel at home (despite the skinny ties and extra slim fit suits!!)

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

4 months

Happy New Year!! Here are your 2024 year-end forecasts 👇 Oppenheimer 5200 Goldman 5100 Deutsche Bank 5100 Citi 5100 BMO 5100 RBC 5000 BofA 5000 UBS 4850 Barclays 4800 Evercore 4750 SocGen 4750 Wells Fargo 4625 Morgan Stanley 4500 Cantor 4400 JPMorgan 4200

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"We are now projecting a recession in the US and a growth recession in the euro area within the next two years... We now expect the Fed funds rate to peak above 3-1/2% next summer...we see the ECB raising rates 250 bps between this September and next December" Big calls from DB

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

“need to stay restrictive for some time” “the job is not fully done” “a lot of work to do” “premature to think we’ve got this” “very difficult to manage the risk of doing too little” Chair Powell’s hawkish hits aren’t hitting their mark in quite the same way

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

Team USA wins 0-0

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

CPI guesses YoY vs 6.5% prev -JPMorgan 6.4% -Morgan Stanley 6.4% -Goldman 6.4% -Nomura 6.3% -Citi 6.3% -UBS 6.3% -BNP Paribas 6.2% -Barclays 6.2% -Credit Suisse 6.2% -HSBC 6.2% -Jefferies 6.2% -TD 6.2% -Wells Fargo 6.2% -BofA 6.1% -CapEcon 6.1% -StanChart 6.1%

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“We now expect a terminal fed funds rate of 5.25%, thereby lifting policy rates to a sufficiently restrictive stance to cause recession… The recession is likely to start around Q2 2023 and endure for three to five quarters” BNP Paribas

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

New Goldman Sachs oil price targets 👀

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

“We believe investors should fade the YTD rally as recession risks are merely postponed rather than diminished” JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“On a year over year basis, the DXY is now up 21% and still rising. Based on our analysis that every 1% change in the DXY has around a -0.5% impact on S&P 500 earnings, 4Q S&P 500 earnings will face an approximate 10% headwind to growth all else equal” Morgan Stanley’s Wilson

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

10 months

Pre-ADP: nobody cares about the ADP report ADP: 497k

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Retail on sale today Target -24.93% Dollar Tree -14.42% Costco -12.45% Dollar General -11.11% Ulta Beauty -10.83% Best Buy -10.51% Walgreens -8.39% Amazon -7.16%

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“in the event we slide into a recession, the sell-off has much further to go (S&P 500 3000); but if we do not, we expect the market to rally back sharply to its prior peaks… We maintain our S&P 500 target for year end at 4750” Deutsche Bank

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

"Recession odds peaked in Nov'22 at 77% and have since declined to 24% this month (down 27ppt MoM), lowest since Jun'22. Note prior peaks in recession fears coincided with the start of major bull markets in asset prices" BofA Fund Manager Survey

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“The equity market has front-run a durable Fed pause, the odds of which are low to begin with. This leaves valuation significantly disconnected from economic/earnings reality. Risk/reward remains unattractive” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"avg SPX gain in 43 bear market rallies (>10%) since 1929 = 17.2%, avg duration 39 trading days; this one... 17.4% in 41 days; textbook... bear rips always “narrow”, of 17.4% gain in S&P500 just 4 stocks (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, TSLA) contributed 30% of gain" BofA's Michael Hartnett

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

"Bank emergency borrowing = tighter lending standards = small business credit crunch = higher unemployment... Tipping point for US$: end of Silicon Valley hegemony, start of entrenched high inflation & budget deficits" BofA's Michael Hartnett

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

BofA Fund Manager Survey "I'm so Bearish, I'm Bullish" -Record low growth expectations -Record low profit expectations -Equity allocation lowest since 08 -Cash levels the highest since 01

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

For good reason Powell wants to signal calm about the financial sector but at some point one too many banks have failed just to call it ‘idiosyncratic’ In trying its best to sound responsible, the Federal Reserve is now running the risk of being irresponsible.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Headline Inflation Guesses BMO 8.3% HSBC 8.2% BofA 8.2% ING 8.2% JPMorgan 8.1% Soc Gen 8.1% Citi 8% Goldman 8% TD 8% BNP 8% Jefferies 8% StanChart 8% Stifel 8% Nomura 8% Wells Fargo 7.9% Credit Suisse 7.9% Morgan Stanley 7.9%

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

"There is an old adage ”don’t fight the Fed,” but this behavior is not just fighting but also taunting the Fed with crypto, meme stocks, and unprofitable companies responding best to Fed communications" JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

If the whole narrative is at the mercy of one jobs report and a CPI print. It’s arguably a pretty flakey narrative to begin with.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“We cut our year-end target to 4300 (from 4700) to reflect higher interest rates and slower economic growth… We assume as the year progresses that investors will gain confidence about decelerating inflation, the path of Fed tightening, and recession risk” Goldman Sachs

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"Bear market rallies are the most vicious. The rally in equities over the past week was one of the sharpest on record. While it could go a bit higher... we remain convicted it's still a bear market and we would use this strength to position more defensively" Morgan Stanley

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

Volker has left the building… The Fed is embracing painless disinflation and hopes it continues… We're not in Wyoming anymore” BofA’s Mike Gapen

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“I am not taking 50 basis-point hikes off the table until I see inflation coming down closer to our 2% target” Fed Governor Waller

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Give that man an oscar 👇

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"We now expect the Fed to raise rates 275bp (up from 200bp) in 2022 with 50bp hikes in May, June, July and September and 25bp hikes in October and December, reaching a policy range of 2.75-3.0% at the end of 2022. The path remains data dependent..." Citi with a big call

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

We do it just for you

lokety

@lokety

2 years

Most annoying anchors of @business are @tomkeene & @FerroTV . Best examples of how to talk over one another with useless banter more than any useful business news.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"I cant see how US yields can stop increasing – Powell’s message to the market effectively was “reprice the terminal rate higher and price out any rate cuts for next year”; I reiterate my view that US2Y will hit 5% before year-end... This is unequivocally USD bullish " Citi

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“the 20th bear market in the past 140 years; average peak to trough bear decline = 37.3%, average duration 289 days; history is no guide to future performance but if it were… bear market would end on Oct 19, 2022 (35-year anniversary of Black Monday) with S&P 500 at 3000” BofA

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

Yield curve today vs a year go

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

"We think the recent price action is more a reflection of the seasonal January effect and short covering... investors seem to have forgotten the cardinal rule of ‘Don’t Fight the Fed.’ Perhaps this week will serve as a reminder" Morgan Stanley's Wilson

Morgan Stanley Says Don’t Buy the Rally as Fed Looms

Investors flocking to the equity rally will be disappointed as they’re in direct defiance of the Federal Reserve, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.

www.bloomberg.com

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

Wall St chiefs on the US economy BofA's Moynihan: Consumers are spending, they have money, they are employed and they have good credit JPM's Dimon: Consumers are in very good shape, companies are in very good shape Citi's Fraser: The US economy remains relatively resilient

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

In the face of global recession talk... -EM equities back in a bull market -Copper prices back through $9k -Euro banks up 42% from Jul low -US HY spread tightest since Aug

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“For Sterling this is the 3rd worst day since Black Wednesday in 1992 and the 41st worst day in history over 160 years and nearly 47,000 trading days” Deutsche Bank

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“We’re not here to close spreads” President Lagarde 2020 “You’ve got three days left” Governor Bailey 2022

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

“The bear market is over… The new scenario in play is "wheels up," where growth takes off after an aborted landing. Our base case is a "non-hard" landing” Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

G10 vs USD this year. Brutal.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

23 days

“The 3-month annualized change in supercore inflation is now over 8% and accelerating… The 6-month annualized change is 6%, and the year-over-year change is 5%… We are sticking to our view that the Fed will not cut rates in 2024” Apollo’s Torsten Slok

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"We believe today's 10y rate offers an attractive level to buy... Our forecasts point to inflation peaking this quarter and falling steadily into 2023. We believe this will reduce the panic level around inflation and allow rates to decline" BofA going long treasuries

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"For the first time since the price surge started in early 2021, we have revised our end-2022 core PCE forecasts down rather than up and are now more confident that both headline and core inflation have peaked in year-on-year terms" Goldman's Hatzius

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"...some 20 million across the country—about 1 in 6 American homes—that have fallen behind on their utility bills. It is, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada), the worst crisis the group has ever documented

A ‘Tsunami of Shutoffs’: 20 Million US Homes Are Behind on Energy Bills

Surging electricity prices have spurred the worst-ever crisis in late utility payments.

www.bloomberg.com

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

1 year

"it’s worth remembering that exactly a year ago today, markets were pricing a Fed Funds rate of 0.68% by the end of 2022 and CPI of 2.6%... Given the huge forecasting miss over the last 12 months it’s remarkable how settled the consensus is around a terminal of 5%" Deutsche Bank

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"When we (the US) are talking about supply chain disruptions, exercise bikes aren't getting delivered. When they (Europe) are talking about supply chain disruptions, they're worried about heating their homes" StanChart's Englander

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

"we're gonna see a global stagflation... we're gonna see depression in Russia and Ukraine, we're gonna see recession in Europe, we're gonna see stagflation in the US and we're gonna see a number of commodity importing emerging economies running into debt problems" @elerianm 👇

Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

2 years

The link to this morning's conversation with Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg Television. #economy #markets #centralbanks #fed #federalreserve @markets @bopinion @BloombergTV @FerroTV

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“we are tactical bears…"short twos & spoos" 'til Halloween… SPX 3333 to force "policy panic" (Nov 16th G20)… “Big Low" not 'til Q1 when recession/credit shocks = "peak Fed", "peak yields", "peak US$"; trade of '23 short $, long EM, small cap, cyclicals” BofA’s Hartnett

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“They’re gonna pivot for one of two reasons… if they pivot… One is because recession risk has become unacceptably high, two is because we are very close to a financial accident. Neither of those two things are good for risk assets” @elerianm on the Fed and markers.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

9 months

Shorter Powell -FOMC believes policy is restrictive -Doesn’t see Fed cutting this year -Sees 2% inflation w/out big job losses -Staff no longer forecast recession Market hears you’re done, soft landing hopes and dreams.

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Jonathan Ferro

@FerroTV

2 years

“We have raised our fed funds rate forecast by 75bp over the last two weeks, and now expect that the FOMC will hike by 75bp in September, 50bp in November, and 50bp in December to reach our terminal rate forecast of 4-4.25% by the end of 2022” Goldman Sachs

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