My book, Ascending Order, is now available in electronic and print formats, via
@CUP_PoliSci
. A thread here on the book, for anyone interested in rising powers, international order, hierarchy, global governance, and status in world politics.
My dad just told me he met
@iamsrk
at a wedding and said my son went to the same school as you (true), and SRK said that's great we should take a selfie, and my dad said I don't know how, and SRK said don't worry I got this. I found this out today, THREE YEARS LATER.
After weeks of waiting, I was finally able to see, touch, and smell a copy of my own book today. It's a strange feeling, to finally let go of something that consumed you for years on end and took unprecedented endurance to see through. I hope it will have been worth it.
Life/work update: I taught my last class
@yalenus
today. In the new academic year, I will join
@LSEIRDept
, where I will continue as assistant professor. Moving from a small startup to a major IR department is both exciting and intimidating. I am looking forward to the challenge!
To understand India's approach to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, one has to understand India on its own terms, not only as competing with China, dependent on Russia, or partnering with the US. My contribution to the debate on India & the war in Ukraine.
A special honour to learn recently that my book will receive the Best Book in Global IR award from
@isanet
. An award that is named after
@tvpaul1
, whose considerable and diverse body of scholarship has impacted so much of the field, including my own work.
My father just sent me a video from 2015 of John Mearsheimer talking about Ukraine. Now I have to explain IR paradigms to him. This info war is getting out of hand, people.
Share of local govt employees in total employment in the US/China is 5 times that of India. Local govt expenditure is 3% of total govt expenditure in India, compared with 27% in the US and 51% in China.
Source: Devesh Kapur, JEP, 2020
This quote has been misappropriated in commentary/coverage. It was not a moral argument but in fact an interest-based response to the question of how India could expect support in a future border crisis with China after not condemning or sanctioning Russia.
This quote from the Indian foreign minister
@DrSJaishankar
has proved enduring.
"Europe has to get out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not Europe’s"
But surely this is nonsense? Every bit should be rebuffed. A 🧵
My essay in
@ForeignAffairs
on how growing public and elite nationalism in rising powers can produce self-defeating foreign policy risks. This was as true of the United States in the 19th century as it is of India today.
When your dad sends you an extra large shipment of alphonso mangoes that got very ripe in transit, you make mango daiquiri, obviously. Yes, that is a champagne coupe and not a proper daiquiri glass. I regret nothing.
My book, Ascending Order, is out today in paperback (at a much lower price than the hardback). I'm grateful for the public and scholarly engagement the book has received since publication in August last year. May the conversations continue. 🙏
I guess they can't take it back now that it's website official. Really fortunate to be part of an exciting intellectual community of top-notch research and teaching in international relations.
An extraordinarily naive and apolitical account of why the term Global South is "pernicious." If conflicting interests and histories invalidate the existence of a group, we may as well give up on any collectives in domestic or global politics.
New year, new course. "Technology and International Security," an effort to bridge teaching & research for a new project, hopefully benefiting both in the process. Feedback on errors and omissions always welcome.
Teaching my advanced undergrad seminar on "India as a Rising Power" after a two-year hiatus. Had the opportunity to revise the reading list a bit. Always a work in progress, and open to suggested additions for future iterations.
Extremely grateful to
@ECPR
and the prize jury for this honour. I first encountered Hedley Bull's work as an undergraduate student and it left a deep and lasting impression on how I think about world politics. Very special to have my work associated with his intellectual legacy.
❇️ Wide-ranging ❇️ Compelling ❇️ Original
✨ THRILLED to congratulate
@rohan_mukh
on winning our 🏆 2023 Hedley Bull Prize for 📕 Ascending Order: Rising Powers and the Politics of Status in International Institutions (
@CambridgeCore
)
🗞️
#ECPRPrizes
#IR
Thank you all for a tremendous response to the call for papers for the Ashoka-LSE Diplomatic Studies Workshop. Here are the 8 selected out of 120+ submissions. There were many other excellent candidates - we hope you will apply again when we convene a second round in 2025.
Coming soon: Daniel Craig as the panel chair waiting for you to wrap up as you approach the 15-minute mark of your 10-minute presentation and are yet to get your main point across.
I am happy to congratulate
@rohan_mukh
- WINNER of the 2023
@Hague_Jour_Dipl
BOOK AWARD! Read the jury’s praise for *Ascending Order: Rising Powers and the Politics of Status in International Institutions*.
@fggaleiden
If you are attending
#ISA2024
(
@isanet
), please come to my book roundtable thx. Only mildly terrified by the thought of
@CourtneyFung
, Debbie Larson,
@pu_xiaoyu
, and
@AyseZarakol
collectively taking a critical eye to the work. Moderated by the incredibly generous Jack Snyder.
If you are a PhD student, postdoc, or asst prof working on India's diplomatic studies, esp via the disciplines of international history or international relations, please apply to the Ashoka-LSE Diplomatic Studies Workshop & share this call widely.
More:
My piece for
@ForeignAffairs
, on a deep cause of the "Thucydides trap": the status anxieties of rising powers and the frequent inability of great powers to accommodate them. The rules & institutions of int order could mitigate this tension, but might require too much compromise.
“The durability of the international order depends on whether or not its core institutions—and their architect, the United States—can create sufficient status-based incentives for China to cooperate with them.”
My piece for
@monkeycageblog
, in which I apply my research on rising powers and international order to better understand China's & India's stances on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Grateful to the folks at TMC for a thorough and speedy editorial process.
In the last month, one has heard a lot about how India is dependent on Russia, Russia is dependent on China, etc. This narrative ignores the agency of major powers and the role of statecraft in world politics. My effort to inject some nuance and complexity into the conversation.
#Opinion
| "The world today is interdependent but also polarised, and will retain both features going forward. To navigate, nations will need greater diplomatic skill and foresight. India has proven reserves of both"
✍️
@rohan_mukh
for
#HTPremium
Jaishankar's response: (1) India-China border issue long predates Ukraine invasion. (2) Europe has been silent on many issues re:Asia. (3) India can deal with China with or without global support. (4) support for India v China will not be predicated on India's position on Russia.
If the quote has been used since then to make moral arguments for or against Europe, that speaks more to European anxieties about Europe's identity and place in the world than the positions of Global South countries on the war in Ukraine.
My article in
@htTweets
on the increasing polarization of an economically networked and interdependent world order, and how India's policy of strategic autonomy can still help navigate the new geopolitics.
Also available here:
In the last month, one has heard a lot about how India is dependent on Russia, Russia is dependent on China, etc. This narrative ignores the agency of major powers and the role of statecraft in world politics. My effort to inject some nuance and complexity into the conversation.
He further rejected the premise of having to choose between "the US axis" and "the China axis", arguing that India's decisions will be based on a balance of values and interests, ending with: "there is no country in the world that disregards its interests."
Excited to be a part of
@CarnegieSAsia
and the incredible community at
@CarnegieEndow
as a nonresident scholar. Thank you,
@MilanV
. Looking forward to doing some great work together.
Further points on India-Russia-Quad:
1. Arms sales are a two-way street. Buyers have leverage too, and as one of the world's largest importers, this applies to India viz. all suppliers, Russian & Western.
To see this more clearly, share of total Russian arms export value for top 5 recipients, 2010-2020 (SIPRI data).
India: 32.2%
China: 13.1%
Algeria: 10.9%
Vietnam: 8.0%
Egypt: 6.1%
India is Russia's largest buyer by a mile. In 2020, India's share was still 30.3%.
Further points on India-Russia-Quad:
1. Arms sales are a two-way street. Buyers have leverage too, and as one of the world's largest importers, this applies to India viz. all suppliers, Russian & Western.
It is understandable that some Western commentators are indignant, but moral haranguing is a poor substitute for arguments focusing on the real cost of the war for the Global South in terms of commodity prices, supply chain shocks, Asian geopolitical balances, etc. /End
Is it shortsighted for a major power such as India to not counter an assault on international order? Perhaps, but as I've argued, India and China are unlikely to rush to the defence of an order that has traditionally excluded them from its inner circle.
Looking forward to co-teaching "Power Shift: The West, the BRICS and The Crisis of the Liberal International Order?" with
@luca_tardelli
at
@LSESummerSchool
this year (July). Applications are open until the course is filled. More details 👇
Looking forward to moderating this
@yalenus
webinar, "What can the Quad do for Asia?", on 24th March 7:00pm SGT, featuring
@Rory_Medcalf
,
@tanvi_madan
, and
@selinalcho
. The event is open to the public. Register here:
JOB ALERT: Yale-NUS College is looking to hire 2 lecturers in Global Affairs, specializing in foreign policy and statecraft and/or global governance and development. Positions are on a fixed term contract of up to 3 years, starting AY2022-23. More info 👇🏼
From the perspective of many Global South countries, just as it has frequently not been in Europe's interest to intervene to bring about peace in conflicts outside Europe's traditional sphere, it is also not in the Global South's interest to do so in a European conflict.
The survey results are reminiscent of Waltz 1979: "Much evidence suggests that we became sufficiently accustomed to our abnormal postwar dominance to lead us now to an unbecoming sensitivity to others' advances, whether or not they equal our own." 🧵
I couldn't attend
#ISA2023
this year (though I'm so glad to be at
#AAS2023
in Boston right now). Thankfully, I have the best colleagues and friends who sent me pictures of my book on the
@CUP_PoliSci
stand.
There may come a time when the West decides to stop supporting India's rise through economic or military means due to a lack of complete alignment on values, but so long as India's economy keeps up and India remains the lesser worry in Asia, that time is not at hand. /end
Respectfully disagree. A mistake to assume an obv preference thwarted by dependence, or that India feels much ownership over a Western-led order & its principles. Policymakers in partner countries familiar w/India know this (other political actors may not). 1/
Urgent Home Truths:
India abstained out of compulsion. Its arms dependence on Russia is toxic. If it doesn't have a choice, then "strategic autonomy" is not worth its salt. India is more, not less, vulnerable to China now. My column in
@HindustanTimes
A beautiful day in Cambridge today, my first visit in over two decades. Huge thanks to
@TristenNaylor
for inviting me to present new work in progress
@Dept_of_POLIS
@HistoryIr
. I was a complete tourist and took many pictures, in addition to eating a Chelsea bun at
@fitzbillies
.
What is something that Russia is wasting, France inexplicably has, and China clearly wants?
Let's talk about "Status" in international politics.
[THREAD]
Grateful to host
@rohan_mukh
for a
#SecurityStudiesSeminar
on his book "Ascending Order: Rising Powers and the Politics of Status in International Institutions" that poses the question of when rising powers cooperate with, challenge, or try to reform an international order.
After 12 years of being a fan, I watched
@TheNational
live for the first time today, at the front of the crowd
@allpointseastuk
. Yes, Matt Berninger came down from the stage while singing Terrible Love, and yes, he held my hand. I will not be washing it ever again.
New compendium on UNSC reform superbly edited by
@StewartMPatrick
. I argue in my essay that India values the UNSC and would like to lead it, but will increasingly turn to a more active UNGA to dilute UNSC powers in the absence of substantive reform.
A short essay of mine for
@diisdk
, published today, looking at how the war in Ukraine is changing the geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region and how various countries are adjusting their grand strategies in response.
A very warm welcome to our new Assistant Professors who joined us earlier this month!
Take a look at the blog below where we got the chance to get to know them better, and find out who their four dream dinner guests are...🍽
👇 Read the full interview📚
'Rising Powers and the Politics of Status: China and India in the Liberal International Order' - Rohan Mukherjee
@LSEIRDept
@rohan_mukh
speaking at China Centre, 24 Oct, 5pm. Event co-hosted with
@AsianStudies_Ox
3. A very quick calculation shows that while a big share of current operational equipment and big ticket items may be Russian, India's import mix in terms of value has changed substantially. (SIPRI data)
I have a chapter, "Building Foreign Relations for Great Power Capabilities," in a new volume by Ashley Tellis,
@bibekdebroy
, &
@MohanCRaja
. The chapter identifies imp external relationships for India & examines the strengths & weaknesses of Indian FP. 1/8
@d_jaishankar
@horror06
I'm afraid this is not true. India has done plenty to diversify its Russia stakes. And strategic autonomy is not autarky or self-reliance. It is the preservation of maximum options. Anti-Americanism is a legitimate charge, but a separate issue.
Final proofs submitted for my contribution, "Leveraging Uncertainty: India’s Response to U.S.-China Competition," to the 2021-22 volume of Strategic Asia (out next month). Great to contribute to a series that I have read and referenced frequently over the years.
STRATEGIC ASIA 2021-22: Navigating Tumultuous Times in the Indo-Pacific (forthcoming Jan 2022) assesses the impact of U.S-China competition, pushback against globalization, & the Covid-19 pandemic on the geopolitical environment of the
#IndoPacific
region.
@constantinox
I admire your patience for engaging with bad takes designed not to understand an issue but rather to attract attention and drive online engagement.
Wrote a reco letter today for an applicant to the first Quad Fellowship cohort. Whatever one may think of the Quad, creating a club of smart young people who can enjoy, build, & showcase the knowledge economies of its 4 members in a competitive global higher-ed market seems wise.
Combining insights from theories of clubs & theories of social identity, I develop a theory that subsumes various behaviors (cooperation, conflict, reform) & explains them based on two factors from a rising power's perspective: institutional openness & procedural fairness.
An absolutely essential volume from a brilliant scholar at the very top of his game. I have never read something by
@rahulsagar
without being forced to think deeply and reconsider foundational assumptions of how the world works.
Thrilled to announce the publication of my new book, To Raise A Fallen People: How Nineteenth Century Indians Saw Their World and Shaped Ours. It contains nearly 40 essays on international politics by important public figures in nineteenth century India.
@d_jaishankar
Not everyone can be a renowned author whose recent work is mentioned before that of a global celebrity. 🤣 I am of course leaving out the previous para where they referred to me as Banerjee.
I've lived in this city for six months now. I have only one question. Why would Londoners rather get drenched than be caught dead using an umbrella? When did the brolly become uncool?
Ultimately, the question is who gets to not only make the rules of the road but also who gets to break them with impunity. The more exclusive this group of countries is, the more it risks alienating rising aspirants and endangering the future of the international order. /END
Moving is mostly about taking the Things You Might Need One Day™️ from a cupboard in one house and placing them in a cupboard in another house, no matter how many thousands of miles apart. Including the 47 different chargers, plugs, & cables whose uses no one can actually recall.
This is by far not the first time India has abstained or voted against UNSC action targeting violent state behavior. There is a sense among Indian policymakers that diplomacy is more effective than sanctions, censure, and intervention. See, for example,
/3
I had a great time talking to
@LAbdelaaty
about my book, Ascending Order, for
@NewBooksNetwork
. When she asked me what I've been working on since the book, I think I said "sleeping for six months." It's been quite a year.
"This book is an important work of both theory and historical analysis that hopefully will have a significant impact on current debates about the rise of China and the fate of the LIO."
Grateful for this generous review of Ascending Order in
@EIAJournal
.
Hungary 1956
Czechoslovakia 1968
Afghanistan 1979
Crimea 2014
Ukraine 2022
India is, if nothing else, consistent in its official response where the Soviet Union/Russia is concerned.
Not surprising that India isn't calling Russia out, including at tonight's UNSC meeting. In 2014, India said little when Russia annexed Crimea & abstained from a UN res. upholding Ukraine's territorial integrity. It's a consistent position. I'm sure the US grudgingly accepts it.
On Russia: "If the landscape looks very different today, so too do India’s key partners... The Russian relationship may have defied odds by remaining incredibly steady. But it is the exception, not the rule." - S. Jaishankar (The India Way, 2020) /4
(4) This is why fundamental change in international order has historically taken place in moments of major war or great power collapse. Short of this, it's unlikely that the P-5 will actually welcome new veto-wielding permanent members into the UNSC. /end
In retrospect, this ship 👆 has sailed (after the 2000s). The real tragedy of great power politics is that rising powers seek respect and recognition, but great powers are not in a position to provide it because it would dilute the importance/benefits of their club.
What is great power politics if not the clash of national egos. Given this, the problem of international order is one of constrained optimization. Seeing the issue as zero-sum is to abdicate leadership and consign the order to fragmentation or worse.
Here
@rohan_mukh
makes the case for the need to better manage China’s ego in the international system:
“China’s approach to the international order depends on the extent to which the order’s rules and institutions recognize its desire for status.”
A real treat to chat with a podcast host (Ilen Madhavji) who did substantial background research in advance to craft a very enjoyable conversation based on my book and other work. Thanks again
@Hague_Jour_Dipl
India's dependence on Russian arms itself has been declining since 2012 and will accelerate if current sanctions stay for long, damaging Russian manufacturing. But I'd wager that India's vote would not have been different even at low import levels. 2/
4. If your dependence is trending downward but still substantial and you are unwilling to use the resulting influence, that suggests a preference and not a constraint.
.
@BurntCognac
and I (+ two cats) will move to London over the summer. We will miss Singapore dearly. We plan to be back frequently to see friends and former colleagues. ❤️🇸🇬
"India can be a partner that supports foundational rules & norms that the United States & most other states consider non-negotiable, but cannot be pressured into signing up wholesale to US visions of order."
Many imp pts here by
@Kate_SdE
&
@ameyaprataps
In it, I expand the chronological & analytical frames we use on rising powers, which are typically studied as rising *great* powers on the verge of causing trouble with established great powers. Unsurprisingly, most research on power shifts focuses on conflict as primary outcome.