Paul Poast @ProfPaulPoast Twitter profile

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Paul Poast

6 months

"We do not need to be in a world war to be in a world at war." I wrote that statement in a piece for @TheAtlantic , "Not a World War But a World at War" What does that statement mean? [THREAD]

Not a World War But a World at War

The past two years have seen the most conflicts of any time since the end of the Second World War.

www.theatlantic.com

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

How will Russia's invasion of Ukraine play out? What is Putin's end game? I see four scenarios, none of which are good. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Many are surprised by the poor performance of Russia's military in Ukraine. But let's be honest: when it comes to fighting wars, Russia has always -- to use the formal term -- "stunk". [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

Was colonialism good? No. Did colonialism at least do good things? Still no. To see why, look no further than the 1884-85 Berlin Conference. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

I disagree with John Mearsheimer on the causes of the Ukraine-Russian War. Instead, I think...and stay with me on this one... Offensive Realism offers a better explanation. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 years

The Taliban is rapidly advancing in Afghanistan. How did this happen after 20 years of US involvement? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

What book did the most damage to International Relations as an academic discipline and why is it "Clash of Civilizations"? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

8 months

Let's talk about a slow counter-offensive that sowed public doubts about its ultimate success. Of course, I'm referring to the allied western advance against Nazi Germany in 1944. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

I'm a @UChicago international relations professor and I strongly disagree with John Mearsheimer's views on the War in Ukraine. Here's why. [Short THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 years

Global supply chains are a mess. What to do? World War I offers a lesson. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

4 years

Did Iraq & Afghanistan Wars contribute to the militarization of US police departments? Data are pretty clear. Surplus military equipment transferred to local law enforcement (via 1033 program) steadily rose starting in mid-00s, followed by spikes after 2010.

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

Why did 🇺🇸 invade 🇮🇶 in 2003? It wasn't because Saddam Hussein was an imminent threat. It was to prove a point. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

What "counts" as "International Relations"? Cynthia Enloe challenged IR scholars to answer that question, turning our understanding of international politics upside down. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

Yes, European Integration is about peace. Peace WITH Germany, full stop. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

What if genocide, not war, was considered the central problem of International Relations? How would the study of international relations be different? I ask that question of my Intro to IR students. Here's what we discussed. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

W.E.B. Du Bois is a major International Relations theorist, and his writings should be standard reading for international relations students. If you're reading Morgenthau (or Waltz or etc), you need to also read Du Bois. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

11 months

I have no idea WHAT exactly is happening in Russia. But WHY it is happening is pretty clear: it's what you can expect when a war goes badly. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

How did the Gold Standard work? I mean ACTUALLY work? The answer reveals a lot...including why a Gold Standard won't work today. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Was NATO enlargement a mistake? No. Was it the best possible outcome? No. But it did avoid the worst possible outcome...and that's good enough in foreign policy. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 years

Here are 10 reasons why 🇺🇸 military officers should learn about the history of racism & racial discrimination in America. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 years

Political Scientist here: Yes, that is political violence. Yes, this is an attempted coup. Yes, the US Polity score will take a hit.

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

Let's talk about tanks. Specifically, why they will help Ukraine now and why rumors of their "death" were greatly exaggerated. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Samuel Huntington deserves some credit: he was right...about when and how his theory would be wrong. And it is wrong. Let's look closely at what the Ukraine-Russia war means for the "Clash of Civilizations". [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

To understand international politics, you need to "think about thinking." That was a core lesson from the great Bob Jervis. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

7 months

Why are we witnessing a "cascade" of wars around the world? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

Quick 🧵 on NATO Article 5. Don't worry, World War III is NOT starting.

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

This is your annual reminder that "Die Hard" is the perfect Christmas movie...for understanding how Americans view international politics. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

4 years

I did it -- I taught "Clash of Civilizations" to my "Intro to IR" students. How did I do it? How did it go? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

What is something that Russia is wasting, France inexplicably has, and China clearly wants? Let's talk about "Status" in international politics. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

French leaders have long hated being dependent on 🇺🇸 for protection. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

5 months

Was Henry Kissinger a Realist? Not really. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

5 months

Realism. Realist Theory. Realpolitik. Aren't these all the same? Not quite. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

7 months

When I wrote yesterday morning that the global security order was fraying, I didn't think the next 24 hours would provide new evidence supporting that claim.

Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

7 months

From Kosovo to Nagorno-Karabakh, evidence is mounting that the War in Ukraine is fraying the global security order. I explain why and how in my latest for @WPReview .

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Could Russia use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine? Yes. While the risk is still low, it's rising. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

In short, how Russia's forces are performing in Ukraine is consistent with Russia's historical strategy in war fighting: take heavily losses and hope the other side quits. [END]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

The Prisoner's Dilemma shows that cooperation in international politics (and other areas) is hard. But it's not right, nor is it useful. That's what Harrison Wagner taught us. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

When an international relations scholar says "polarity", what do they mean? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

The second amendment was designed to solve a specific problem...a problem that hasn't been relevant for over 150 years. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

No. USA entry into World War II did NOT cause (or accelerate) the Holocaust. [THREAD]

Michael Tracey

@mtracey

2 years

Sorry to break it to you, but the Holocaust was not prevented by US entry into WWII. It was upon US entry in Dec. 1941 that Hitler declared, "The world war is here, the annihilation of Jewry must be the necessary consequence," and then initiated the full-scale mass extermination

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 years

Why did the US invade Iraq in 2003? Retaliation for 9/11? A demonstration of US power? Saddam Hussein was a threat? Bush had a personal vendetta to settle? A mistake? All of the above? The reality is that we don't know. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 months

Peace is always positive, right? Not necessarily. That's what Johan Galtung taught us. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Pinker's proposal is based on three assumptions: 1) Putin's invasion was about NATO nukes. 2) Nukes haven't deterred. 3) Giving Putin a "win" is costless All three are flawed. A short 🧵.

Steven Pinker

@sapinker

2 years

A bold idea: NATO offers to withdraw nukes from Europe (militarily useless, ineffective deterrents as we’ve just seen, & recklessly dangerous) in return for ending the invasion. Putin gets a “win” which costs us nothing worth having.

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Many worry that the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 war could escalate to World War III. But are we ALREADY in a World War? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 years

How Susan Strange founded International Political Economy, a 🧵

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

What is "Ontological Security" and what does it have to do with Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Pretty much everything. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

The Ukraine crisis has folks questioning @NATO 's post-Cold War expansion into Eastern Europe, especially former Soviet Republics (namely the Baltic states of 🇪🇪🇱🇹🇱🇻). So how exactly did the Baltics get into NATO? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

10 months

What if the US had developed, but not used the atomic bombs? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

4 years

When I teach Intro to International Relations, I use no ancient texts or ancient examples. That's right. No Thucydides. Why? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

10 months

Is the idea of "Great Powers" obsolete? No. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

4 years

Why do police departments have Mine-Resistant Vehicles? The answer shows how international politics & American foreign policy led to the militarization of US police forces [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

5 years

1/ Last week, I taught my undergrads about logit models. Though logits are fundamental to many modern statistical techniques, where did it come from? We discussed that yesterday. Turns out, like the 0.05 p-value, it's pretty arbitrary. 👇is a summary

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

Why are folks freaking out about the China Balloon? Realism has answers. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

To help provide context and analysis of the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 War that is grounded in international relations scholarship, here is an updated 🧵of the threads I've written over the past few months (and years) offering perspective on the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 relationship and conflict. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

This picture offers a key lesson on how wars end. That lesson points to why Putin should be given an "off ramp" in the current 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 war. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 months

When studying war, what is a "Level of Analysis" and why should you care? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 months

In light of the Carlson-Putin interview, let's (once again) review the reason Russia invaded Ukraine. Hint: it wasn't about NATO [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

Are China and Russia in a military alliance? Yes. Here's why. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

5 months

Your annual reminder that "Die Hard" is the perfect Christmas movie...for understanding how Americans view international politics. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

4 years

Let's be frank: racism lies at the core of International Relations' creation as an academic discipline. Here's how I plan to address this fact in my "Intro to International Relations" course. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

How do wars end? Must the parties sit down and negotiate? Big questions with immediate relevance. To begin answering them, no better place to start than the underappreciated work of Berenice Carroll. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

We all hate switching to "Day Light Savings Time" every year. So why do so many countries do it? It's because of "The Great War". Time for a War Economics lesson. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 month

To truly understand the current value of NATO, you need to think about a world without NATO. Such "counterfactual thinking" lies at the heart of policy analysis...and IR scholarship. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Does the 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war mean the "End of History" is over? Let's revisit Francis Fukuyama's famous thesis. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

8 months

If folks have to pay to be on this site, then I will stop using it. My purpose for being on this site is to provide FREE & OPEN content about international politics & foreign affairs. I know I'm a small fish in @elonmusk 's pond, but that's it my redline

Elon Musk says X will charge all users "a small monthly payment"

His comments come as the company struggles to regain trust with advertisers.

www.axios.com

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

...eastern expansion of NATO was far from "imposed" or even "pushed" by the United States or NATO. It was desired by the Eastern Europeans (we'll come back to this). In fact, THEY often had to take measures to PUSH the USA/NATO, not the other way around.

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Did the USA promise Russia that it would not expand NATO? Yes, but. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

6 months

Does aerial bombing work? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

"War is persistent, but not prevalent." THIS (not "democratic peace") is the closest thing to an "empirical law" in international relations. How do we know it? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

The UN Security Council has been completely ineffective during the 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war. That's not new, nor unexpected,...nor a problem. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

5 years

I don't teach "Clash of Civilizations" in my Quantitative Security course. But if I did, it would go like this... [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

8 months

Since World War I, International Relations Theory can be seen as a perpetual debate between "Idealism" and "Realism". This is well captured in the work of H.J. Mackinder. Time to #KeepRealismReal . [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Is Putin bluffing about invading Ukraine? Will he "deescalate" at the last moment? No. Here's why. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Unfortunately, if the plan is to wait for Russia to stop fighting, then you could be waiting a long time.

Rita Konaev

@RitaKonaev

2 years

To anyone saying “There is no way Russia can sustain this,” I am begging you, please go read a book about Russian history.

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

5 months

Did Russia invade in February 2022 SOLELY (or even mostly) to keep Ukraine out of NATO? No, but it's important to understand why. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

The economic sanctions imposed on Russia are unprecedented in scope and scale. But I'm not sure they'll actually "work". [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

Which questions about international politics can you actually answer using large-N data? The big ones. That's what Bear Braumoeller taught us. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 years

So this is not a "the US broke it, the US owns it" situation. This is a situation where the US (w/ widespread international support) invaded a broken country, but was distracted at a crucial early moment in the rebuild. In sum, this tragedy was years in the making. [END]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

More than any war in my lifetime, the Ukraine-Russian War is demonstrating all the ways that economics is central to warfare. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

6 months

Why is there pain, suffering, and war in the world? That is what International Relations theory sought to explain. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

We're close to witnessing a major war over Ukraine. Why? Turns out, it's been long predicted by international relations scholars. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

11 months

Does Russia "deserve" its seat on the UN Security Council? Unfortunately, yes. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Why can't 🇺🇸 let 🇯🇵, 🇹🇼, 🇰🇷, and most of East Asia be dominated by 🇨🇳? Let's talk about the "Grand Area" and its importance to US foreign policy. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

26 days

"International law is fake law." "The only real law is domestic law." Both statements are wrong. In some sense, the opposite might be true. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

In sum, Offensive Realism, as described by Mearsheimer in his "Tragedy of Great Power Politics", explains well Russia's behavior over the past century, including today: like all great powers, it seeks to dominate its region. That is ultimately the cause of the current war. [END]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

This is exactly the "backed into a corner/nothing to lose" scenario that worries many. [SHORT THREAD]

Kevin Rothrock

@KevinRothrock

2 years

Here's Putin just now ordering Russia's deterrence (nuclear) forces on "a special regime of duty" in response to foreign sanctions. It's a DEFCON situation.

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

10 months

Which three 90's movies best capture how we thought of "the Unipolar moment"? My answers: - Independence Day (1996) - Armageddon (1998) - The Rock (1996) [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 years

I asked my students to think about a surprisingly neglected question in international politics: why violence? More directly, why do states resort to shooting guns at one another? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Russia seems to be following the British WWI financial model. That didn't end well for Britain...or the World economy. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 years

Time for real talk about "Realism". This is the first of multiple threads on how I teach "Realism" to my Intro to International Relations students. The goal is to #KeepRealismReal [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

But that simply doesn't fit the facts. NATO expansion was NOT forced on the Eastern European states. Instead, THEY sought it.

Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

The Ukraine crisis has folks questioning @NATO 's post-Cold War expansion into Eastern Europe, especially former Soviet Republics (namely the Baltic states of 🇪🇪🇱🇹🇱🇻). So how exactly did the Baltics get into NATO? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Napoleon's "Grande Armee" wasn't all that "grand" by the time it actually reached Russia. That's really the lesson to draw from Minard's famous graph of Napoleon's march: by the time the army reach Smolensk it as down to 145k from 420k.

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Russia is about to default on its foreign debt. That's a bit unusual, even for Russia. To see why, we need to go back to 1918. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

4 months

What is the "global commons" and why do "Hegemons" have to support it? [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

3 months

Does the ICJ's ruling in "South Africa v. Israel" matter? Yes, but it's important to know how and why. [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

Is 🇺🇸 still seen as the "indispensable nation"? Sort of. To see why, let's compare the movies "Armageddon" (from 1998) and "Don't Look Up" (from 2021) [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

What problem most troubled Albert Einstein? - The mystery of space-time? - The properties of energy? - Quantum uncertainty? Nope. It was "international organization". [THREAD]

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

2 years

The Russian military essentially uses an "attrition model": keep take losses until the other side quits, is destroyed, or, if the fighting goes long enough, Russia itself decides to stop fighting.

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

5 months

Realism is not a theory. It's a philosophical (even theological) framework for understanding why world government is both necessary and impossible.

Y2K HUNTER

@y2khunter

5 months

what opinion will you defend like this?

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Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

1 year

Does International Law matter? Don't look at the ICC (though we all have lately). Instead, look at -- and I know this is going to sound very "in the weeds" -- the Montreal Protocol's Multilateral Fund. [THREAD]