Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल @PaliwalAvi Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

1 month

Some personal news: @BritishAcademy_ @FCDOGovUK @SOAS

36

1

195

Last Seen Profiles

@TshepoTsala

@MeetGamma

@gabachacha

@TexansPresident

@Jeunes_gouv

@fckacker

@amirahvann

@ChuchoPerezB

@kida_bisco

@GoogleDevsIN

@PlanetReFi

@cnquen

@wedgiebrat420

@LucasPerillo9

@HelpZhafir

@shanemadej

@LRowland2024

@kuwawomote

@thechhaunk

@LeSwartizz

@stanciu_sara

@Anano_Totiauri

@SmoothJazdew

@thatMGOBLUEgirl

@BennoWeiner

@Der_Honkler

@blancanamero

@ButlerCCTFXC

@Natsu1547458192

@oyeniranWolex

@EvoMPMI

@_aphantasia

@Arch_Haruna

@areeba_ki_memes

@popsashimii

@UCF_FB_Facts

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

Sanctioning Russia but not sanctioning Pakistan was always going to be a tough sell in India. There's nothing more consistent, logical, & unsurprising (even if disappointing for some) than India's response to the Ukraine crisis.

1

368

2K

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Afghan friends: India is opening its borders (to all, not just minority communities), & has introduced an e-visa system that doesn’t require you to go to the (now shut) embassy. Taking a flight is tough, but New Delhi is now a serious option to consider.

'All Afghans Can Apply, No Religion-based Priority': Amid Mayhem, India's New e-Visa - News18

The e-Emergency X-Misc Visa will expedite visa application process for those stuck in Afghanistan as the country witnesses mayhem amid takeover by Taliban.

www.news18.com

56

800

2K

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

1. The ISI seems to be truly sharpening (& exercising) its covert assassination programme against dissidents abroad. Of course, no one can point the finger on the org. forensically given the nature of the ops, but the signalling is breathtaking. A quick thread:

3

325

1K

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

Maybe an introductory course in South Asian history & the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War would be of value here?

Dr Peter Caddick-Adams #StandwithUkraine

@militaryhistori

2 years

#Ukraine : 1.7m refugees have now fled Ukraine. The biggest movement of people since WW2

336

55

309

1

97

717

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

6 months

1. The US foiled an alleged Indian covert assassination attempt of Gurpatwant S Pannun on its soil. 2. Pakistan is opening its intelligence files (forget offering dossiers) for The Intercept. 3. Canadians aren’t backing off on the Nijjar allegations.

US thwarted plot to kill Sikh separatist on American soil

Joe Biden raised concerns of New Delhi involvement with India’s Narendra Modi in September

www.ft.com

3

233

717

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

11 months

Manipur. 1. Chief minister N Biren Singh has "worshippers", 2. Meitei Leepun chief Pramot Singh threatens: "bigger blow to come", that'll make current violence "seem like a small spark", 3. "No link with BJP but our goals same", he says.

I worship the CM… bigger blow to come: chief of Meitei outfit at centre of Manipur clashes

No link with BJP but our goals same: Pramot Singh

indianexpress.com

0

1K

659

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

Let’s be clear. To tell India that its democratic stature depends on a UNSC vote is both wrong & counterproductive. It feeds exactly the public sentiment this article seeks to counter i.e., US is quick to point a finger w/o serious introspection. 1/2

1

72

584

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

4 years

As a teacher. As a researcher. As a citizen of India (not the U.K., where I work, but again, on India!). I cannot accept the CAA-NRC. It is a brazen attempt to divide India along communal lines. In solidarity with all those brave hearts & sharp minds who are opposing it.

91

114

587

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

50yrs after losing East Pakistan (‘71), Pindi has, in its mind, achieved a strategic “win” it deeply desired. This needs acknowledgment, esp by India. Time will tell if it’ll be a Pyrrhic victory, but it has come at huge human cost (mostly Afghan, but also Pakistani). Thread. 1/n

2

169

543

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

10 months

Manipur police knew what happened on May 04. Imphal’s administrative apparatus is divided along partisan lines in this conflict. To expect an impartial investigation because the video of the horrendous crime emerged 77-days later is naïveté of an extreme, odd, sort.

20

423

511

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

Bangladesh is no Sri Lanka. But things are not ok in Dhaka. In my latest @htTweets column I unpack how the political (& geopolitical) ground is shifting under Sheikh Hasina's feet. The last thing the subcontinent needs is turmoil in Bangladesh. 1/2

17

143

512

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

4 years

First Draft: Been working on this one-off intelligence history piece about India's creation of Ghana's secret service at the peak of the Cold War. R.N. Kao and S. Nair were the first unofficial (but acknowledged) chiefs of Accra's Foreign Service Research Bureau (FSRB). 1/n

16

91

492

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

Urgent Home Truths: India abstained out of compulsion. Its arms dependence on Russia is toxic. If it doesn't have a choice, then "strategic autonomy" is not worth its salt. India is more, not less, vulnerable to China now. My column in @HindustanTimes

India should reconsider its Russia dependence

Delhi’s inability to call a spade what it truly is with Moscow marks a dependency that limits, not enables, the country’s strategic autonomy

www.hindustantimes.com

29

113

483

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

This is not from a decision-maker in Beijing. But such views from prominent propagandists (aimed at foreign audiences, in English) signal a certain degree of frustration in China w. Pakistan’s inability to tackle its (rapidly) multiplying national security threats. 1/n

Hu Xijin 胡锡进

@HuXijin_GT

2 years

The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack. The BLA will definitely be more resolutely annihilated. I support Chinese military to launch direct air strikes against this terrorist organization's camp after getting approval of the Pakistani government.

580

297

1K

1

97

447

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Macron’s current line of thinking: “The US deserves allies like Pakistan.”

10

38

419

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

Rishi Sunak is an accidental prime minister of the UK. I unpack the politics, history, & social limits of his rise along with polarising figures such as Suella Braverman in my latest @IndianExpress column. 1/2

5

103

420

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Guess who’ll now say this to the US (& UK): “Don’t worry, we’ll help you fight ISKP in Afghanistan. We’re allies after all.”?

12

42

421

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

1 year

It’s official. My 2nd book, a geopolitical history of India’s near east, will be published by @HurstPublishers . It’ll narrate the why & how of Indian diplomacy & statecraft with East Pak/Bangladesh, Burma, & China in the backdrop of state-building & resistance in the northeast.

57

33

413

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

11 months

This is devastating stuff. Why is Manipur's chief minister still in the job?

How a seven-year-old boy and two women were burnt alive in an ambulance in Manipur

He was being taken to the hospital after having been hit by a stray bullet splinter.

scroll.in

1

568

376

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Impartiality doesn’t mean overlooking facts @BBCNews & @PhilippaBBC . Tomorrow you’ll say that the earth is flat & the sun rises from the West (pun intended) because some people say so won’t make your journalism “impartial”. Shameful & disappointing. @CChristineFair

Kyle Orton

@KyleWOrton

3 years

Quite gross from @BBCNews : our "impartiality" doctrine was used to basically shut down @CChristineFair when she explained #Pakistan 's jihad policy in #Afghanistan that has brought us all to this catastrophe — an issue on which there is no "balance" or "other side", factually.

1K

5K

11K

0

70

338

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Doval met Yusuf, but Yusuf didn’t meet Doval. But Yusuf did tell Thapar that India was keen on a back-channel, which India said it wasn’t—but it actually was? Pakistan too was keen on a back-channel, but not b/w Yusuf & Doval—but it was? — Schrödinger's Ceasefire

Moeed W. Yusuf

@YusufMoeed

3 years

I have seen claims by Indian media that attribute today's ceasefire announcement between Pakistani and Indian DGMOs to back-channel diplomacy between me and the Indian NSA. This is baseless. No such talks have taken place between me and Mr. Doval. 1/4

226

937

4K

3

70

332

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

1 year

I can't attend @isanet 2023 because the Canadians won't process visas in time for non-Western passport holders. Now, ISA says they won't refund conference registration fee because the "deadline has passed" (December 01, 2022). I don't need the money. But have some shame maybe?

14

54

342

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

4 years

It’s official: As of today I am a Senior Lecturer/Associate Professor in International Relations at @SOAS . Heartfelt thanks to everyone —family, friends, mentors, & colleagues— who've supported me over the years. ... can't wait to join a stellar team of scholars @soaspolitics !

41

7

331

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

There's a lot going on b/w the UK & India. But this "anti-extremist task force" is worth keeping an eye out for. The Khalistan issue (& its Pakistan links) has been festering for long in this bilateral. If London delivers on this (after sorting visa woes), it'll be big. 1/2

Nayanima Basu

@NayanimaBasu

2 years

Just In — India and UK have decided to set up an anti-extremist task force, mainly looking at the Khalistan issue, says British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at a media conference. @ThePrintIndia

70

733

4K

1

27

311

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

5 months

1. Don’t carry out covert hits on allied soil. 2. If you do, then don’t get caught. 3. This is embarrassing at so many levels.

U.S. Attorney Announces Charges In Connection With Foiled Plot To Assassinate U.S. Citizen In New...

Damian Williams, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Matthew G. Olsen, the Assistant Attorney General of the Justice Department’s National Security Division, Anne...

www.justice.gov

1

59

322

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

This is a brilliant, must-read, piece by Prof. @ShivshankaMenon . The one, and only, aspect that I'm not entirely convinced by (yet) is the notion that: "Europe is a sideshow to the main theater of geopolitical drama: Asia." Let me explain why. 1/n

The Fantasy of the Free World

Are democracies really united against Russia?

www.foreignaffairs.com

5

83

313

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

India's abstention is expected. Those who follow India's foreign policy closely will attest that the explanation below has more than a hint of anger in India's tone & tenor. Russia crossed a line, & New Delhi gets that. This vote is out of compulsion, not choice.

Amb T S Tirumurti

@ambtstirumurti

2 years

In UN Security Council meeting on #Ukraine today, India abstained on the vote on draft resolution. Our Explanation of Vote ⤵️

1K

4K

19K

8

42

307

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

1 year

India’s Near East: A New History ‘A revealing new history of India’s faltering attempts to exert control over its eastern hinterland and the neighbouring states of Bangladesh and Myanmar.’ Forthcoming Jan. 2024 @HurstPublishers

35

57

309

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

This may go unnoticed w/ all that's going on in Ukraine. But, India is steadily (re)deepening engagement w/ Afghanistan. These trucks crossing Pakistani territory required Taliban's pressure on Pindi & much hard-work by Afghan officials in N. Delhi. Watch this space.

Farid Mamundzay फरीद मामुन्दजई فرید ماموندزی

@FMamundzay

2 years

More than four & half months of wait, the first convoy of 50 trucks will start the delivery of 50,000 metric tons of wheat from 🇮🇳 to 🇦🇫 today. I thank the Indian government for the generosity displayed at a time when more than 20million Afghans are facing crisis or the worse 1/2

29

154

774

1

60

295

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

If you're interested in Indian & African diplomatic and intelligence history, my IHR article on India's role in creating and leading Ghana's first external intelligence agency, the Foreign Service Research Bureau ("the bureau") is now open access.

Colonial Sinews of Postcolonial Espionage - India and the Making of Ghana’s External Intelligence...

Based on untapped Indian archives, this article details how Delhi built Accra’s security service in 1958-61. Keen to reduce its dependency on the outgoing British colonial administration, Ghana sou...

www.tandfonline.com

8

74

305

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

This is how India's policy of covert tactical diversification within Myanmar's domestic battlefield looks like. The Chin National Front just targeted 10-20 PLA-Manipur militants in Sagaing in response to the killing of Indian soldiers in south Manipur. 1/2

Guest Column | India’s Ties With Myanmar Junta in Focus After Chin Group’s Attack on Manipur Rebels

Can the Chin National Army successfully capitalize on Indian frustration at the cozy ties between the Tatmadaw and anti-New Delhi insurgents?

www.irrawaddy.com

1

76

281

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

1. The UK's preemptive offer to recognise Taliban regime even if they grab power by forcibly ousting Ghani demonstrates the depth of leverage Pakistan has over London's subcontinental policies. No wonder, India & UK never got along on these issues. Quick thread.

Suhail Shaheen. محمد سهیل شاهین

@suhailshaheen1

3 years

1/3 We view remarks made by the British Defense Secretary to the Daily Telegraph as positive, saying we can work with the Islamic Emirate. The Islamic Emirate stresses, we want good and positive relations with the world and are committed to international principles

203

287

2K

1

136

292

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Recently I told @BDUTT that’s there’s resistance to Taliban. Now, Kabul is close to collapse similar to ‘96. I was wrong. I didn’t expect cities to fall so quick. I didn’t expect US to beg Taliban for its embassy’s survival. What a surreal, scary, moment.

U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul (Published 2021)

The demand seeks to stave off an evacuation of the embassy by dangling aid to future Afghan governments — even one that includes the Taliban.

www.nytimes.com

26

56

290

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

10 months

“India’s social contract is melting, and while it may seem geographically peripheral, Manipur is right at the heart of it”. My latest @IndianExpress column on the dismal situation in Manipur and the urgent need for accountability.

Who is accountable in Manipur? The answer can provide justice to mob assault survivors

Essentially, we’re witnessing fresh partitions and associated armed ethnic mobilisation in Northeast India with support from states-within-the-Union. Such systems of violence, themselves a by-product...

indianexpress.com

18

122

287

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

India’s decision to invite U.K. PM Boris Johnson as chief guest for Republic Day 2021 is incredibly well timed & strategically smart. Four, among other, issues to watch out for:

8

42

264

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Recent statements by Taliban on India are curious. Going by this translation 1. TB wants to “improve” all-around ties w/ New Delhi. 2. Wants Afghan traders to access Indian markets via Pak (Pindi refused in the past), 3. Seeks a “bilateral” resolution of Kashmir. Thread. 1/n

23

107

273

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

4 years

India should be *very* concerned about these developments. Afghans have supported India for long & overlooked the communal bigotry. A shift in public mood there is a huge loss. Remember, India has taken much pride in the ‘goodwill’ it enjoys in Afghanistan. Don’t lose that.

Omar Atal

@OmarAtal_

4 years

Anti #Indian protests in Kabul, Herat and Kapisa provinces, they burn the flag of India and chant “Death to Muslims Killers” #AFG

251

1K

2K

34

81

257

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

ICYMI: Bangladesh has sought a US$4.5bn IMF bailout. The Russia-Ukraine war is the key trigger. But the situation has been deteriorating for long. Dhaka's economic success has an ugly political underbelly, & it's worth watching this space (esp. if public protests break out).

6

83

267

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

1 year

“Communal violence in Manipur highlights the risk of majoritarian agendas in sensitive regions.” My thoughts in HT on the chronicle of an eruption foretold in Manipur.

The violence in Manipur is a by-product of three interlocking processes

The real question with such clashes is not why, but why now, and why mostly in Kuki areas

www.hindustantimes.com

34

108

265

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

7 months

Turkey, a NATO member state, is actively abetting ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh. The deafening silence from custodians of the ‘liberal order’ is a sight to behold.

ABC News

@ABC

7 months

Over 93,000 ethnic Armenian refugees have now fled Nagorno-Karabakh, local authorities say, meaning 75% of the enclave's entire population has now left in less than a week.

29

378

723

0

90

271

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

1 year

India's secret wars. Thrilled to share our 1st co-authored article (w. the amazing @pstanpolitics ) in @ISQ_Jrnl that explains variance in India's support for cross-border insurgencies. The article offers a medium-n dataset on India's covert ops & two detailed case studies. 1/n

2

57

267

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

History & realpolitik informed India’s restraint at the UNSC on the Russia-Ukraine Crisis. But that was before 5a.m. Kiev time, Thursday, February 24. It should be the future & realpolitik that must inform India’s long-term response hereafter. Russia ain’t an ally on China.

1

26

256

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

The Haqqanis enjoyed an intimate relationship w/ TTP & ISKP. They’re also controlling Kabul at the moment. Square this circle.

12

60

248

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

That strange moment when you come across a declassified top-secret letter by Jawaharlal Nehru to the Foreign Secretary claiming 60-100 dead Nagas ("hostiles") in an IAF airstrike in Sep. 1960, long before Delhi used air-power against the Mizos in 1966. 1/2

Air attacks in Mizoram, 1966 - our dirty, little secret

On February 28, 1966, the Mizo National Army (MNA) revolted against India and fighting broke out across the region.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

1

76

251

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

One has to give it to the team curating & coordinating India's return to Afghanistan. In less than a year since the closure of its missions, India will be back in business in Kabul (& probably beyond). The (geo)political timing of this move is quite something.

6

42

246

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

In 1992, after failing to evacuate Pres. Najibullah in the wee hours of April 17, India recognised the Mujahideen govt. within a week. The shift occurred after prior “quiet” outreach. India’s recognition of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate is a question of when, not if.

6

40

242

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

The complexity of South/east Asian geopolitics: that's a Kachin Independence Organisation officer at a 13-party Mujahideen meeting in 1987 in Afghanistan. Hekmatyar, via ISI, offered weapons to KIO. Zia-ul-Haq almost met KIO-chief in 1988 to link him up w/ Khalistani militants.

0

63

238

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Just saying: Sher Md. Stanekzai’s link to Indian Mil. Academy, though historically interesting (& imp for other reasons), is of no political value. It has little to do w/ TB’s outreach to India. But TB will exploit it for image-makeover as popular media (over) hypes it. 1/2

7

53

242

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

8 months

There’s little I have to say about Canada’s allegation into Indian covert ops against Khalistan militants (I’ve zero sympathy w. them) on its soil. But, here’s an article @pstanpolitics & I wrote on Indian offensive covert & overt ops in the subcontinent.

Strategy, Secrecy, and External Support for Insurgent Groups

Abstract. States support transnational insurgents in an important variety of ways, from highly public efforts to transform the status quo to covert backing

academic.oup.com

2

77

247

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

6 months

“In the last two weeks alone, almost 10,000 opposition leaders, supporters and activists have been arrested after protests broke out against the ruling government, led by the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina.”

Full prisons and false charges: Bangladesh opposition faces pre-election crackdown

Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party are seeking a fourth consecutive term and are accused of harassing the rival BNP party

www.theguardian.com

21

41

232

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

The security sit. in Kashmir is taking an expectedly ugly turn. Sparks of well-thought, multi-pronged, sustainable (despite India's COIN grid) kinetic resistance in the post-A370 context are now apparent. It's building since Aug 05, 2019. Quick thread 1/n

Little-known terror groups claim responsibility for Kashmir civilian killings

A spokesperson of Jammu and Kashmir Police said investigations into the killings were in progress to establish the full circumstances of the terror crimes

www.hindustantimes.com

2

58

222

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

10 months

Manipur. A thread on an implosion foretold? Over the last few yrs I've closely followed the steadily deteriorating political & security situation in India's near east. Here's some articles that trace the (geo)political run-up to the mess we are in today. July 2023

4

81

226

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

7 months

Indeed, the US & Israel’s “respect for international law & the laws of war” is such a valuable artefact that it should be displayed at the British museum.

Sky News

@SkyNews

7 months

Antony Blinken says: 'What separates Israel, the US and other democracies when it comes to difficult situations like this, is our respect for international law and the laws of war.' He adds that 'Hamas are using people as human shields'. Live updates:

3K

350

1K

3

50

227

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

1. How *might* Myanmar's South Asian & northern neighbours react *if* the Tatmadaw ousts Suu Kyi in a coup? This is an imp ques given the state of the world at the moment, & many a geopolitical "plate-fulls" for most big powers. A quick, admittedly speculative, thread:

1

86

219

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

1. This brilliant, ground-breaking, ethnography of the Sangh in the Northeast by A. Longkumer (SUP, 2021) is a must-read if one wants to decode contemporary India’s sociopolitical cleavages & the complex question of ‘belonging’ in the age of Hindutva’s extremes.

3

31

205

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

4 years

Excited to share this @Diplomat_APAC two-part-series on China's covert & overt linkages to India's Northeast, an uptick in violence in the region, what this means for Sino-Indian relations, & the future of separatist politics in the Northeast. 1/n

Is China Behind a Recent Insurgent Attack in India’s Northeast?

China’s support for insurgent groups in India’s Northeast has a murky history.

thediplomat.com

7

87

192

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Pressure works: the Government of Manipur has rescinded the decision to not support incoming migrants from Myanmar & “politely” ask them to return. It will now be offering them support & shelter.

2

66

198

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

This 14-volume set of secret intelligence documents on Mujibur Rahman for the 1947-71 period, edited by Sheikh Hasina, are quite something. They offer insight into how Pakistani agencies shadowed Mujib's movts. including visits to India (mostly Calcutta) "for medical purposes".

2

35

198

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

A timely arrival.

0

19

199

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

At least six @CrphMyanmar MPs are sheltering in India at the moment. If you’re at all interested in seriously following the India side of the Myanmar story — you urgently need to follow @DevjyotGhoshal . Superb reporting from various grounds on this.

Six lawmakers among 1,800 people from Myanmar sheltering in India

At least six lawmakers from Myanmar are sheltering in India after fleeing their country amid fears they could be detained by the military junta that seized power in a coup, an advisor to the body...

www.reuters.com

1

118

190

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Political deflection doesn’t help defending a criminally ill-executed decision, @POTUS . Kabul elites fled. So did the US.

3

25

187

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

That’s an Indian Air Force plane in Taliban-controlled Kabul. India is going full steam ahead w. re-establishing itself in Afghanistan.

Randhir Jaiswal

@MEAIndia

2 years

First consignment of India's earthquake relief assistance for the people of Afghanistan reaches Kabul. Being handed over by the Indian team there. Further consignment follows.

613

2K

11K

1

35

187

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश ��ालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

It's out! My latest @Journal_of_GSS article explains why India responds differently to conflict-generated migration crises in the region. From tolerating Afghan, Tibetan, & other such migrants to repatriating Rohingyas, India's approach to such crises offers imp clues... 1/n

2

30

194

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

6 months

So, Hasina does not trust her armed forces to be ‘armed’ near her residence weeks before the elections. It is a clear indication that strains in Bangladeshi civil-military relations have deepened. Jan 07 elections won’t end this logjam. They will worsen the ongoing crisis.

Sami

@ZulkarnainSaer

6 months

The Bangladesh Army headquarters has recently imposed strict restrictions on the movement of military personnel with ammunition, the movement of heavy military vehicles, and any type of convoy (fleet of vehicles) with or without ammunition on all roads around Gana Bhavan…

29

74

388

0

35

187

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

A senior Bangladeshi official I recently spoke with put it in blunt, terrifying terms: “Given the political direction the entire region is heading in, don’t expect Bangladesh to remain an island of secularism”.

PM Modi called on to raise matter with Hasina, seek strong action against guilty - Times of India

South Asia News: Iskcon on Saturday wrote to PM Narendra Modi that attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh have become a “regular affair” and the community will live in fear u.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

1

72

184

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

I’m amazed at how completely @POTUS has lost the plot on Afghanistan. His blindness to “in-your-goddamn-face” facts leaves me speechless. But I’m told I must trust him w/ China?

5

19

185

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

1. Why is India supporting the Tatmadaw? It has calculated that returns from an anti-junta stand are ltd, and the risk of dislocating connectivity is high. Past experience of failed interventionism (1988-93) guides this approach. It *might* be the wrong lessons learnt? A thread.

5

67

178

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Powerful cover by India Today (note: not foreign media)

0

54

181

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

10 months

For a nation’s conscience to be shaken, there needs to be one to start with. Don’t ask why the Prime Minister has not uttered a single word on Manipur’s plight. His silence is a speech act in itself.

Tension in Manipur hills after May 4 video of women being paraded naked surfaces

A video was doing the rounds on the eve of a planned protest march announced by the Indigenous Tribal Leaders' Forum (ITLF) on Thursday to highlight their plight.

www.indiatoday.in

0

116

172

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

5 years

Personal Update: I am honoured & delighted to join the @SOAS_SAI as Deputy Director. In this role, I really look forward to working with & learning from my excellent colleagues and students at @SOAS and beyond, & to advance the study of contemporary South Asia across disciplines.

40

5

182

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

4. If the deaths of Sajid Hussain & Karima Baloch are linked to the ISI, it means Pindi has taken a strategic decision to escalate the use of covert assassinations in previously untouched territory using means that are unclear if not untraceable. This has serious implications.

1

42

164

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

India's response to this crisis is evolving in direct proportion to Europe's resolve, & Ukrainian determination to show Russia's military what they are truly made of. The diplomatic signal of sending humanitarian aid *before* talks occur b/w Kyiv & Moscow is huge. Splendid.

Sidhant Sibal

@sidhant

2 years

Breaking: India to send humanitarian assistance to Ukraine

176

888

9K

6

23

176

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

One reason why it’s good to remember that (1) India is a lower riparian on the Brahmaputra w China, & (2) India “engineering droughts” in Pakistan will flood Indian plains. Plus, “engineering floods” in Pakistan will cut India’s own ltd. supplies. Imp to get this math right.

Palki Sharma

@palkisu

2 years

The Indus Waters give India immense strategic advantage over Pakistan. 80% of Pak agricultural fields depend on these waters that India controls. India can engineer floods & droughts in Pakistan. Why has New Delhi been shy of exercising this power? Time to leverage the Indus?

2K

942

5K

2

22

172

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

My column in @htTweets on N. Delhi's move in Afghanistan in context of NSA A. Doval's visit to Kabul. "Why is India opting to intensify support for the Afghan government when the world is hedging its bets and engaging with the Taliban?" Answer below:

Decoding India’s move in Kabul

Its decision to support the Afghan government, at a time when Ashraf Ghani is weak, is intriguing. But there is a historical backdrop to it

www.hindustantimes.com

0

29

172

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

6. Then, the message: To kill a dissident abroad is not just to inform the target group/community about the red-lines not to be crossed; but is also meant to instil enduring fear among critics that *exile is not escape*.

1

34

159

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

South Asia folks: This might become my six-monthly shout-out, & I know a lot is going on. But, please don’t overlook what’s happening in Myanmar at the moment. A mil. coup against Suu Kyi is *quite likely* acc. to informed colleagues based in Yangon.

2

35

173

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

7 months

There’s lots of interest in knowing more about India’s external intelligence agency (R&AW). Here’s a recent book by @pc_dheeraj on India’s intelligence culture & strategic surprises that’s worth your time. One of the few rigorous works based on his PhD.

India’s Intelligence Culture and Strategic Surprises: Spying for South Block

This book examines India’s foreign intelligence culture and strategic surprises in the 20th century. The work looks at whether there is a distinct way in which India ‘thinks about’ and ‘does’...

www.routledge.com

0

52

169

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

8 months

The slow drip of background briefings by Ottawa on the evidence it holds begins: 1. months of human and signals intelligence 2. comms involving Indian officials themselves, including Indian diplomats present in Canada 3. Five-eyes ally shared intel

Canada has Indian diplomats' communications in bombshell murder probe: sources | CBC News

The Canadian government has amassed both human and signals intelligence in a months-long investigation of a Sikh activist's death that has inflamed relations with India, sources tell CBC News.

www.cbc.ca

34

66

170

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

6 months

The implications of this are huge. India attempted an offensive covert operation on American soil—if not of a US citizen. This has not happened before, or at least has never come to light before.

1

19

169

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

This is an extraordinary & deeply troubling story. That the US would leave Afghanistan was known & is understandable. But that it would (quite literally) abandon Bagram airfield without the decency to inform the ANSF leaves one speechless.

14

68

159

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Final Cut: My article on India's role in the making of Ghana's external intelligence agency (1958-61) has found a home in 'The International History Review'. I learnt a lot about India's intelligence history & R&AW's institutional moorings in researching & writing this piece 1/n

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

4 years

First Draft: Been working on this one-off intelligence history piece about India's creation of Ghana's secret service at the peak of the Cold War. R.N. Kao and S. Nair were the first unofficial (but acknowledged) chiefs of Accra's Foreign Service Research Bureau (FSRB). 1/n

16

91

492

3

37

167

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

2. The ISI is not new to covert assassinations on foreign soil. Much to the contrary. But, *where*, *when*, & *against whom* it carries out such ops is critical. Select Asian (& its a big continent!) countries have been preferred over others.

1

32

153

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

3. There was reluctance in the past to undertake ops in Western countries. The alleged killings (imp. to remember that these are just allegations) in Sweden & Canada of Baloch dissidents is a shift in modus operandi (even if the capabilities existed, they were not exercised).

1

35

153

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

“Pakistan actually would like Afghanistan to break off relations with India. That is impossible. If we give in to this, we would give up our sovereignty and independence ... Right now, we are closing ranks in Afghanistan and organizing resistance.”

Former Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai: "We Afghans Are Just Being Used Against Each Other"

Former Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, 63, on his empathy for the Taliban, his bitter disappointment with the former protective power, the United States, and why he considers the EU as his role...

www.spiegel.de

6

50

159

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

The colonial & postcolonial history of the United Kingdom’s approach towards the subcontinent in a nutshell.

1

61

155

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

10 months

It’s official. Promoted to Reader in IR at @SOASpolitics .

44

0

167

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Even Karzai studied in India. He realised that Indian media loves to hype such linkages even though they’re of limited/no pol. value. He ensured to overplay it (even when not needed). TB will do the same. So, better to be a little careful w/ this “Sheru from IMA” excitement. 2/2

2

37

157

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

1 year

I wrote this piece in December 2022. It is still valid. For India, the situation in Pakistan is extremely dangerous. To seek Schadenfreude is arguably the last thing one should be doing.

2

18

161

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

8 months

Some thoughts in my latest HT column on the wider implications of what could arguably be the first ever (known) covert assassination by Indian intelligence on Western soil.

23

42

160

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

Nearly every country including geopolitical rivals Pakistan & China have come out in support & solidarity w/ India, but not “you know who”. Every gesture, every prayer (I’m not religious, but I don’t care about my beliefs or lack of thereof at this point) counts. Thank you.

Javad Zarif

@JZarif

3 years

Iran stands in solidarity with India as she braves one of worst episodes of disastrous pandemic, which has become humanity's #CommonPain . Our condolences to bereaved families & prayers for speedy recovery of all afflicted. Global coop imperative to end to this global tragedy.

203

478

3K

0

18

157

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

5 years

There’s a long history of Indian workers being kidnapped in Afghanistan since 2003. The first few were killed within 24hrs, various others were released after gruelling negotiations & cash transfers.

16

36

137

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

There’s been a huge debate on whether, when, & to what extent India should re-establish itself in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. In my latest ⁦ @htTweets ⁩ column I explain why India needs to be on ground in Kabul, & doing that now is better than pushing it for later.

11

45

160

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

5 months

“Two senior Research and Analysis Wing officers were asked to leave their stations in major Western cities earlier this summer … RAW was also blocked from replacing its station head in Washington, DC” ⁦ @praveenswami ⁩

Nijjar-Pannun effect: RAW downs shutters in North America 1st time since inception in 1968

One of two officers moved out was head of RAW station in San Francisco & another was second-in-command of its operations in London, it is learnt. RAW was founded in 1968.

theprint.in

8

52

158

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

10. Finally, it is also a msg to rivals such as India i.e. Pindi might be escalating its covert war horizontally in regions previously not on its map. What such display of capabilities & intent leads to is difficult to say, but it is an incredibly dangerous game *if true*.

1

30

144

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

What has happened in Afghanistan is a strategic shock for the subcontinent. I explain why that's the case in my latest @htTweets column. For the Taliban, Kabul has risen, not fallen. For Pakistan, this is its 1971 moment.

A strategic shock for the subcontinent

For the Taliban, Kabul has risen, not fallen. For Pakistan, this is its 1971 moment — but its influence will eventually wane

www.hindustantimes.com

9

43

157

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

2 years

Bangladesh formally seeks a US$4.5 billion IMF bailout. Good news is Dhaka is not swallowing the kool-aid that all’s well with its economy. But the tough news is that the debt over-burden is still a ticking time-bomb.

Govt formally seeks $4.5b from IMF

Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal has sent in a formal request to the IMF for a $4.5 billion loan, putting to bed the speculations on whether the country would be seeking the support from the

www.thedailystar.net

2

70

148

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

9 months

Excellent investigation by @zymaislam of systemic corruption in Bangladesh & how a group directly linked to Sk. Hasina has been laundering money.

S Alam's Aladdin's lamp

No official record of a single taka taken out of country, yet he and his wife obtain citizenship of Cyprus through investment, go on property-buying spree in Singapore

www.thedailystar.net

1

56

152

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

7. It is also a msg to the host govt. in question i.e. Pakistan would rather risk the diplomatic costs of such ops being exposed (akin to Israel?), instead of being deterred on this count any further. The inspiration here might be coming from Jerusalem, and/or Moscow?

1

27

133

Avinash Paliwal अविनाश पालीवाल

@PaliwalAvi

3 years

5. First, the method: They can be done by carefully infiltrating & removing assassins in time before the investigation cycle begins. This is a costly but effective method & is often used by agencies & mafiosi. But it may also recruit local criminal elements to do the job.

1

29

132