Iran’s footprint in South Asia isn’t as deep as China’s or Russia’s, but that may be changing. And two recent geopolitical events could further bolster Tehran’s prospects in the region.
This week’s South Asia Brief for
@ForeignPolicy
:
Pakistan was put on FATF gray list in early 2018, when PMLN govt was in power. FATF’s evaluation of Pakistan’s efforts to complete its action plan for gray list removal mainly covered period when PTI was in power. So FATF decision today will be based on what was done in PTI era.
Today, Imran Khan did what he does best-mobilize people, and in very big numbers. He will try to keep doing this in the coming weeks and months, in order to maintain pressure on a new government that won’t have it easy.
Today I accepted an invitation to go on a far-right Indian TV channel.
I wanted to push back against the absurd allegation that the "Western media" is "peddling fake news" about the New Delhi riots.
I tried my best. But it was like speaking to a loud, huge, and angry wall.
Sad.
PMLN leader Nawaz Sharif has declared victory. But final results haven't been announced, and results so far show PTI independents still in the lead.
The Army, with its intervention in the electoral process, and now its preferred party have conspired to subvert the public will.
After today's remarkable electoral performance by PTI, will we finally see the end of those "PTI isn't really that popular, it's just hyped on social media" takes?
It's PTI's mass popularity that enabled it to persevere and defy the electoral odds, and in such a big way.
Greta Thunberg, the world's most famous climate activist, is the latest celeb to express solidarity w/India's protesting farmers.
Ironically, those farmers are no exemplars of climate change mitigation, not by a long shot (stubble burning, heavy groundwater extraction, etc.).
The die is cast. If the final results show anything other than a PTI victory, PTI will reject it as a rigged result, and understandably so: Its early gains led to a long delay in announcing final results. The military, intent on denying power to PTI, intervened in the process.
Unless I missed it, Prime Minister Modi has not said one word publicly about the 20 Indian soldiers that lost their lives in the Galwan Valley. No statement, no address to the nation, and not even a tweet about it. This is monumentally surprising.
Tensions are building in Pakistan.
After preliminary election results showed surprising gains by the PTI, the party the military is dead set against returning to power, election results have been delayed for hours.
Vote tampering and rigging fears are rife, and for good reason.
Pakistani media have circulated video of a gunman being taken down by another man as the gunman tries to fire his weapon at Imran Khan’s container.
As horrible as this attack was, it appears it could have been much, much worse if not for the bravery of the man who intervened.
Every effort Pakistan’s government makes to weaken Imran Khan will only end up making him stronger. Its dysfunctional and repressive policies play to his strengths as a populist and enable him to channel public outrage to his advantage. The numbers in those huge crowds don’t lie.
In Pakistan, the new government has pursued charges against journalists, raided opposition leader homes, and banned a planned opposition protest. These are dangerous politics at the worst possible time, as the economy teeters on collapse. The gov’t may be digging its own grave.
Today I was asked on an Indian TV show if the Pegasus controversy is a global media conspiracy hatched against India because of Modi's close ties to Trump.
🤯
Yes, India’s relationship with the US has taken off while its relationship with Russia has slowed. But Delhi still describes its ties w/Russia as “time tested.” Doesn’t say that about ties w/US. Events of recent days bear that assessment out. Russia is helping India, US is not.
I was on an Indian TV show & one of the panelists suggested that “Pakistan lobbies” may have been a reason for the delayed US response to India’s COVID crisis.
I responded that this would be rather curious, given that Pakistan itself offered to help India well before the US did.
The State Department condemns violence & restrictions on freedoms in Pakistan's election. Expresses concern "about allegations of interference." Calls for investigation. Relatively mild statement, considering the great scale of the rigging that went down.
Perhaps the magnitude of the 2017 Champions Trophy final victory was greater, but to defeat India for the first time in WC play, and so convincingly at that, and also just a few weeks after the NZ/England mess—this delivers a mighty big message of strength and defiance.
#INDvPAK
Some very disturbing images are coming out of
#India
today. The government appears to have badly underestimated the citizenship law’s impacts-unless, that is, it simply doesn’t care. But let’s be clear: These images are not the India that its government wants the world to see.
I just received my 2nd vaccine dose. I feel relieved but sad. I was at a mass vaccination center that was nearly empty. Plenty of vaccines for all. The contrast w/India couldn’t be sharper. Forget about strategic considerations-the US has a moral imperative to share its supplies.
Pakistan’s government has arrested Fawad Chaudhry, a senior opposition leader.
If Islamabad fought inflation and debt with as much rigor as it is fighting the opposition, it would have vanquished the economic crisis many moons ago.
India has arrested Disha Ravi, a 21-year-old climate activist, for her role in sharing (and possibly editing) a toolkit that explains how people abroad can express solidarity with Indian farmer protestors.
Let that sink in.
(And yes, I’ve read through the toolkit document.)
Imran Khan's PTI party seems to have broken the military’s stranglehold on political control, giving cause for some optimism about the future of Pakistan’s democracy. My reflections on last week's election for
@ForeignPolicy
:
Narendra Modi has never held a true press conference over his nearly 6 years as PM. If there was ever a good time to hold one, amid a crippling global pandemic and a resulting lockdown at home that has sparked concerns and confusion about the welfare of millions, it would be now.
.
@theintercept
claims the cypher was leaked to it by an anonymous member of Pakistan’s military-and it has published the cypher here.
The doc merely proves what’s already been reported: The US said ties w/Pakistan would improve if Khan lost power.
Indian police have filed a complaint against Greta Thunberg.
For tweeting about the farmers protests.
And for sharing a link that outlines plans on...how to stage peaceful protests around the world in solidarity with the farmers.
My word.
How sad that nearly 24 hours after India made a monumental decision about Kashmir, the voices of those most affected by that decision-Kashmiris-haven't been heard, because so many of them are under a communication blackout imposed by the ongoing security lockdown.
#Article370
Who’s been a real busy diplomat since the Gaza crisis broke out?
Shah Mahmood Qureshi.
Pakistan’s FM has spoken w/his Palestinian, Egyptian, Saudi, Afghan, Chinese, and US counterparts. He also made a strong statement to OIC. Now enroute to Turkey and on to US for UN meetings.
I think Imran Khan achieved his goal. Today's rally was meant to showcase strength & public support, less in advance of the no confidence vote & more in anticipation of the next election, whenever it is. His speech was a campaign pitch, and it will resonate with his support base.
Imran Khan's address to the nation today shows how he continues to play the long game. He gave the speech not with an eye to April 3, but to the many months that will follow, onward to the next election. It was a stump speech. He's positioning himself for his next electoral run.
I'm quoted here by CNN: "PTI voters came out in droves to telegraph a message of defiance, that they weren’t going to let the military dictate the outcome of an election that it badly wanted them to lose.”
Thanks for the offer :)
But I've already seen plenty of credible reports on the ground (and there is also satellite imagery) that make quite clear that Indian claims of killing hundreds of terrorists-or even of destroying terrorist facilities-are spurious if not outright false.
Pakistan has suspended mobile phone services nationwide, citing security concerns. This is an ominous start to election day.
The move violates multiple high court rulings since 2018.
Security concerns were greater in 2018 and 2013, and I don't recall a move like this back then.
In the end, Pakistan's establishment got exactly what it wanted: A coalition led by the military's preferred parties, and susceptible to the military's influence.
Still, PTI's strong electoral showing is a game changer for Pakistani politics. It's no longer business as usual.
Pompeo, speaking in Doha, thanks Pakistan for helping facilitate negotiations in Afghanistan and calls on Pakistan to uphold its commitments to help make Afghanistan a peaceful and prosperous place.
Anti-Muslim comments by two Indian ruling party leaders have caused a major backlash in the Gulf-a top source of Indian oil and gas imports and home to one of the largest Indian diasporas, w/large remittance flows.
New Delhi will need to carry out some urgent damage control.
The EU has issued a statement that criticizes, albeit relatively mildly, Pakistan’s election. Expresses “regret” about its non-level playing field and “allegations of severe interference,” among other things. Calls for an investigation.
Today, for the first time, I was part of an Indian TV debate on the India-Pak crisis that also featured a Pakistani guest. My earmuffs were at the ready. Interestingly, there was more shouting among the Indian participants than between the Indian & Pakistani guests. Go figure.
Big victory for Imran Khan’s opposition PTI, as it appears to have resoundingly won the by-elections in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province and biggest electoral prize. The poll was a referendum on both the new gov’t’s performance and on Khan’s narrative about his ouster.
Trump and Modi walking out together, hand in hand, smiling broadly and waving to the crowd: Those are some serious optics right there. Powerful stuff. The two leaders could even be election running mates.
The chemistry between these two men is clearly strong.
#HowdyModi
Pakistan’s Edhi Foundation, founded by the late great Abdul Sattar Edhi, has done what most of the world’s richest governments have declined to do: Extend an offer of assistance to an Indian nation deeply in need. This is the example that must be set, and that the world must see.
First the Pakistani state tried to sideline Imran Khan. Now it’s tried to shame him by having the country’s two most powerful institutions go before the cameras to shatter his narrative.
But Khan will likely double down.
A long, ugly political crisis may soon reach a crescendo.
Cutting off access in Pakistan to the opposition PTI party's online rally will backfire-because many months of crackdowns on the party have done nothing to dent its popularity, and also because PTI has such a large support base outside Pakistan.
Predictable but wrongheaded move.
Four wins in a row for Pakistan. One more win and it'll be partying like it's 1999, two more wins and it'll be partying like it's 1992. An exciting run, up to now.
#PAKvsNAM
The stunning letter written by six Pakistani high court justices illustrates not only the extent of interference in the legal process, at the highest levels, but also the willingness of public servants to go public about it-despite the risks that doing so may pose for them.
India’s health minister said today that India’s COVID-19 fatality rate is the world’s lowest.
And yet, independent health experts believe the actual number of fatalities may be up to five times higher than the official figures.
The arrest of Shireen Mazari, a former Pakistani HR minister and top leader of the PTI party, is shameful. And it will further weaken an already beleaguered new government by giving Imran Khan and his party another rallying cry, ahead of their planned march on Islamabad.
An Indian statement claims a missile launch into Pakistan was a mistake and expresses regret.
The language is conciliatory but the implications are scary.
Mistakes, in the form of a supersonic missile sent dozens of miles across your nuclear rival's territory, can start wars.
A year ago, India ended the autonomy of its only Muslim-majority state.
Delhi is marking that anniversary by inaugurating the construction of a Hindu temple on the grounds of a mosque destroyed by Hindu extremists.
Two big wins for the BJP. Two big losses for pluralistic India.
I’ve been seeing insafians all over my timeline praising “Nawaz” to high heaven and wondering what planet I’d just landed on.
And then I understood :)
#INDvPAK
Yikes. Trump will be welcomed and accompanied by one of the most extremist and incendiary figures in the BJP. If the US wants to emphasize the “shared values” thing on the trip, this isn’t the way to do it. Not a good look!
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will welcome US President Donald Trump in Agra on February 24. He will accompany the US President to the Taj Mahal. (File pics)
PTI has earned a public mandate to govern. But it's all but assured Pakistan's next ruling coalition will look a lot like the previous one-a PDM redux led by PMLN and PPP and some smaller parties. PTI defied the odds in recent days, but it appears headed for the opposition.
Despite all the uncertainty about Pakistan's political crisis, safe to predict the PM won't resign before the no confidence vote, despite some speculation he may. That's not his personality or politics. Say what you will about him, but he's a fighter.
"
#India
may be the world’s biggest democracy, but the way Article 370 is being repealed is inherently autocratic—dictated from a distant center with no input from the people most affected." ICYMI, my piece
@ForeignPolicy
Maulana Fazlur Rehman led Pakistan's previous coalition, an Army-backed gov't embroiled in a bitter confrontation w/Imran Khan & his PTI party.
Today he endorsed Khan's position that Khan was ousted by the army, and he hosted a PTI delegation.
He is ever the political chameleon.
The Canadians didn’t go about this quietly. Trudeau made the direct accusation while speaking before the House of Commons, and his government publicly identified an Indian diplomat it expelled as the head of Indian intel in Canada.
A reflection of a highly fraught relationship.
New Delhi is losing the global battle of narratives on the farmers protest issue. To this point, not many abroad are buying its claims of a global conspiracy.
This is significant, given that India has so often won these battles in the past-and it has expected to win them, too.
Today, Modi said there are no detention centers in India. There are. His own government, and many Indian media reports, have made this abundantly clear. Why say something so blatantly untrue? Because “alternate facts” are perfectly acceptable these days. What a world we live in.
To recapitulate: Today an Indian fighter pilot received a prestigious military award for shooting down a Pakistani F-16 jet that US officials would later claim was not actually shot down. 🤷♂️
Today was a disturbing, and perhaps ominous, day for India-not just because of what happened, but because of Modi’s response to it all. What he said wasn’t at all conciliatory-rather, it was downright communal. A far cry from a call for calm and unity.
Narendra Modi has weighed in on today's attempted insurrection in the US. I think this means he has locus standi to comment on America's internal matters.
Another PTI online event, another Internet blockage. Hard to build a Digital Pakistan when you constantly crack down on it (it's happened for years). Bangladesh and India do this too, but their economies are stronger & more resilient. Hurts Pakistan's economic prospects the most.
Trump will be giving a solo press conference, sans Modi. This suggests journos can ask him about Kashmir, the citizenship law, the deadly protests etc. and his responses will go uncontested b/c he’ll be there himself. Doesn’t sound ideal for New Delhi. But that’s how it’ll be.
“We were making rotis in our shop when the security forces said, ‘Are you going to feed Kashmiris bread? You should feed them poison.’ Then they shot into our shop and left us.” This is a very disturbing dispatch from Srinagar, written by
@svaradarajan
What Swamy says in this brief clip doesn't just reflect Islamophobia-it represents pure, unadulterated hate. There's really no other way to describe it. Will the BJP try to distance itself from these comments? I wouldn't count on it.
India has been engulfed in riots after suddenly stripping nearly 2M people of their citizenship.
@IsobelYeung
travels to India to see how a newly-enacted law has signaled to India's 200M Muslims that they are the true target.
Watch
#VICEonSHO
Sunday at 8 PM ET on
@Showtime
.
Many are asserting Pakistan was gray listed in June 2018, when an interim government was in place before the elections.
In fact, while Pakistan was formally put on the gray list in June 2018, the initial decision to gray list it was made at the FATF plenary back in February 2018.
In an address to the nation today,
#Pakistan
PM Khan laid out his govt's latest plans to combat coronavirus. It is taking a notably different approach from other countries in the region (and some beyond), opting not to do a nationwide lockdown but scaling up major relief efforts.
So, thanks to the NYT’s brilliant reportage, we now know that the US’s last act in Afghanistan was to drop a missile on an aid worker with a US NGO, killing him and 10-yes, 10-children.
A sickening tragedy, and the worst possible coda to a US war that should have ended long ago.
Over his first few weeks in office, PM Sharif has made 5 foreign trips (1 private, 11 days abroad in total).
Over his first few weeks in office, PM Khan made 0 foreign trips (his 11th day abroad came 3 months after he took office).
Both of them spent time in KSA and UAE.
Eyewitnesses told the BBC that "significant numbers" of the dead in Kabul airport attack were shot by US forces. There are also reports that there were civilian casualties, including the deaths of children, in the US airstrike on ISIS in Kabul today.
This must be investigated.
In Pakistan right now, public fury is being directed at the Army on levels that haven't been seen in a very long time. The images today of people storming and burning military property would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Such dramatic changes over so little time.
Earlier today, India's health minister said "we are in a much stronger position against Corona than in 2020."
He said this on a day when India tallied more than 300,000 new cases for the 6th consecutive day.
And he said this 1 day after 117 people died from the virus every hour.
Can’t remember the last time an Indian flag burned in Afghanistan. There’ve also been protests against India in Bangladesh. These are expressions of public sentiment in nations that are two key Indian partners in South Asia.
Those “internal matters” have int’l implications.
This photo comes from a Tumblr page posted six years ago.
Not to mention, why would terrorists fleeing carnage leave out their weaponry neatly positioned like this, as if it were being advertised in an LL Bean catalogue?
We all need to be extra vigilant about fake news.
Today it appears the Pakistan army has reached an “enough is enough” moment re Khan. After several false starts/unsuccessful arrest attempts by the police, this time the mil took matters into its own hands.
What a mess.
In India, hospitals are low on oxygen, Covid patients are having to share beds, new daily cases are at an all-time high, and the PM is boasting about large crowd sizes at state election rallies (reminds me of a certain someone). Something is very, very wrong with this picture.
It’s clear, based on the steps they took as soon as the polls opened, that the powers that be remain concerned about the PTI’s possible electoral impact. Especially its turnout potential.
The party has been badly weakened and hollowed out, and yet it still has them worried.
I recently spoke to a friend from the Kashmir Valley about the idea of India one day winning the trust of Kashmiris. My friend, who is quite mild-mannered and soft-spoken, had this response:
“We’d have to have no brains or eyes for that to work.”
First came fresh troop deployments and sudden, dramatic evacuation orders. Now it's house arrests for some local leaders, Internet cutoffs, and curfews likely to follow. And it's still unclear what might be coming next and when. What an unsettling and ominous moment for
#Kashmir
.