Advanced NBA stats that are more accurate & easier to use.
By
@bencfalk
, former VP of Basketball Strategy with 76ers & Analytics Manager with Blazers.
With Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid on the court together in the regular season, the Sixers outscored opponents by 16 points per 100 possessions played (98th percentile).
In the playoffs?
+19.2 per 100 possessions (99th percentile).
New article:
How Sachin Gupta, the Timberwolves new head of basketball operations, taught me that leadership doesn’t always look like we think it does.
How, in an NBA obsessed with long range looks, does the best defense give up the most threes? The answer lies in a subtle but very important change over the last few years of NBA basketball.
Random stat I just stumbled upon:
In his 10 NBA seasons, not once have Jrue Holiday’s teams been worse with him on the court vs. off.
That is quite the track record of winning basketball.
(Full stats here: )
The San Antonio Spurs rank 5th on defense so far this year -- after ranking 23rd and 20th the last two seasons, their worst rankings since Popovich's first year as head coach.
In the last two weeks, the Utah Jazz are 7-0 with the
#1
ranked defense, the
#2
ranked offense, and have outperformed the pregame spread by an average of 10 points.
The Simmons/Embiid/Redick trio's point differential was incredible.
2017-18: +17.2 on almost 1,900 possessions (99th percentile)
2018-19: +15.2 on almost 2,400 possessions (99th percentile)
The Blazers just finished up a 6 game road trip where they went 5-1. Their stats were eye-popping.
They had (by far) the league's best offense over that time, along with the
#10
defense.
It wasn't just a matter of easy games: they had the
#1
spread differential as well.
When Victor Oladipo picked up two fouls in the first minute of Game 2, it raised a common question: what is the right way for coaches to manage foul trouble?
It’s easy to lose sight of given how Memphis’ season went, but Mike Conley had a fantastic season—possibly the best of his career.
Highest usage rate since he’s been in the league, second highest points per shot, lowest turnover rate.
(Full stats here: )
Russell Westbrook is currently on pace for the highest assist to usage ratio of his career. In other words, relative to how much he is using possessions, his assist rate is as high as it has ever been.
Matisse Thybulle currently ranks on the 100th percentile for wings in both steal and block rate. If he ends the season this way, he'd be the first player to lead his position in both steal and block rate since 2013-14 (Garrett Temple).
To this point, working on a new feature for Cleaning the Glass that allows you to filter team stats by strength of opponent.
Here are the top teams in games where they’re facing an opponent who ranks in the top 10 in point differential.
Following up on
@TheSteinLine
noting there are currently 3 teams undefeated against teams worse than .500, the top 3 average net ratings against bottom 10 teams since 2004-05 are all this season:
(or "why I believe in overall Net Rating less than ever before as an indicator")
Announcing important changes to Cleaning the Glass: I’ll no longer be writing articles for subscribers—when I have something to say, it will be free to everyone. I'll be spending most of my time on the stats site instead.
The why and what of the change:
In their first 15 games, the Kings were 5-10 and had the 29th ranked transition defense.
In their last 8 games, the Kings have the
#2
ranked transition defense, and are 7-1.
When we watch basketball, our tendency is to focus on the ball. Contributor Dylan Murphy reveals an overlooked but important factor we miss when we do that.
One takeaway from Summer League: new Suns coach Igor Kokoskov is ready to bring a dose of Euro offense to Phoenix. Contributor Ryan Nguyen breaks down some of the sets he ran and what makes them unique.
23 players have played at least 1000 minutes so far this season and have an on/off differential on the 90th percentile or better.
7 have done it both this year and last: Giannis, LeBron, Lillard, Jayson Tatum, Paul Millsap, Davis Bertans, and Patty Mills.
Two new heavily requested features just added on Cleaning the Glass Stats:
* League-wide leaderboard for on/off stats:
* On/off stats by team:
I’ve been playing around with these for a little bit, and they’re really powerful.
What the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference is — and what it is not. On the evolution of a conference and an industry, and the tensions it's now experiencing. (Free)
Two-for-ones have long been accepted as a key part of smart coaching. But are they really as valuable as we've come to believe? Contributor Positive Residual investigates.
The Lakers shot 27 for 27 at the rim last night against the Warriors.
That's the most made shots at the rim without a miss in any game in the CTG database (which goes back to 2003-04).
By far: The second highest total without a miss was the Sixers going 21 for 21 back in 2010.
The Lakers’ estimated half court efficiency in this year’s regular season ranked 19th.
Here are the ranks of the champions from the prior decade:
2019: 8th
2018: 1st
2017: 1st
2016: 4th
2015: 3rd
2014: 3rd
2013: 1st
2012: 5th
2011: 5th
Only TOR last year was outside the top 5.
Redick was such a huge part of what Philly did over the last two years. When the Sixers had all of Simmons + Embiid + Redick on the court they were dominant.
2017-18: +17.2 per 100 possessions in ~1900 poss
2018-19: +15.2 in ~2400 poss
(From here: )
My gut reaction was that if the Sixers felt comfortable about bringing Butler and Harris both back, they wouldn't have let Redick leave. But apron is a factor if they do run it back. Still, Mike Scott is easier to replace then Redick. That's a big loss.
Want a free year subscription to Cleaning the Glass Stats?
A subscriber wrote in asking to donate their subscription to someone who could use it. If you’re interested, reply to this tweet and next week I’ll pick a random winner to give it to.
Since Dec 15, the Spurs rank 2nd in shooting efficiency (eFG%), behind only the Warriors, despite ranking 1st (by far) in midrange shots attempted.
How?
FG% at rim:
#1
FG% in midrange:
#1
FG% from three:
#1
Uh, yeah, that’d do it.
(Stats here: )
Curing what ails the modern NBA — from tanking to superteams — requires changing the rules of the CBA. A proposal for what that would look like. [Free]
Contributor Dylan Murphy examines a specific kind of cut that is very effective at opening up teammates. It's a cut that represents the ongoing Xs and Os chess match between coaches — in more ways than one.
In my experience, NBA executives tend to fall into two different camps. It's a distinction that explains a lot about the moves made at this trade deadline.
(Free)
When non-shooters are on the perimeter, smart defenses ignore them. The recent Warriors-Blazers game shows how elite offenses counter this defense — when they execute.
In the physics of the modern NBA, shooting gravity equals mass. Contributor Ryan Nguyen explores how teams are using shooters as screeners to great effect.
The Hawks are the league's best offense so far this season. The improvement has been driven in large part by their shooting, but also because of a massive improvement in free throw rate.
New article: The Rising Suns and The Rising Star
Breaking down the two biggest surprises of the bubble: The biggest key to the Suns' future, and some thoughts on a breakout star.
Our most requested feature is finally here!
You can now filter the player leaderboard:
For example, see all of the players under 25 years old who have a high usage, points per shot, and have played significant minutes.
What seemed like a series made for Hassan Whiteside turned into a disaster. On Whiteside, and what evaluating him can tell us about evaluating big men in general.
Minnesota's best lineup was their starting unit—with Tyus Jones in place of $19M man Jeff Teague. Contributor Dylan Murphy digs into why Jones provided such a boost to the T-Wolves' performance.
Michael Porter Jr. played only 53 minutes in college. Evaluating Porter's draft prospects requires digging into his play at other levels, and grappling with the right way to think about a prospects like him. [Free to all]
A New Era
My time working with Terry Stotts taught me a lot about how a coach should interact with stats—and what it means to be a coach in the modern era of the NBA.
The Gobert + Favors combination wasn't working for the Jazz to start the year — but that story has now completely changed. On the cause, a part of the solution, and what it can tell us about a question of larger coaching philosophy.
In the last two weeks, RJ Barrett ranks on the 81st percentile in usage and 73rd percentile in points per shot.
It's not just the three point shooting driving it, either.
✅65% at the rim compared to 51% before
✅82% at the line compared to 67% before
At the All-Star break, the Knicks have the league's
#3
ranked defense.
It would be only the second time they've ranked better than 15th defensively in the last *15 years*.
Portland is 6-1 in their last 7 games.
In that time they have the league's 3rd best offense, driven by the second lowest turnover rate and the 3rd highest offensive rebound rate.
Announcing the latest addition to Cleaning the Glass Stats: a daily game summary email.
Starting tomorrow, all subscribers to CTG Stats will receive a no-frills email each morning with a quick rundown of the previous night’s most surprising results and player performances.
The Raptors bench mob has been a large part of what has propelled them to the level of play they've been seeking for years. What exactly is it that has made this unit work so well? Contributor Ryan Nguyen explores.
TJ McConnell's performance against the Sixers on Saturday was a clinic in how to impact a game with energy and effort.
Watch here, shortly after he came into the game, picking up full court unexpectedly and taking advantage of Shake Milton taking his eye off the ball.
Q: Which two players' teams have had the biggest drop in offensive efficiency when they leave the game?
A: Exactly who you would have thought.
(h/t
@kpelton
)
The second best defensive lineup in the league so far (min. 500 possessions) belongs to the...Portland Trail Blazers.
The Lillard-McCollum-Powell-Covington-Nurkic combo has allowed just 102.9 points/100 so far this season, an incredibly low mark.
Carmelo Anthony has left the Big Apple and the Knicks are Kristaps Porzingis' team. But there’s one important way that Porzingis is following in Anthony’s footsteps - and it’s not good.
A deep-dive on the Eric Bledsoe trade: the strategic factors in play for both front offices, and an examination of Bledsoe's value as a player and fit in Milwaukee.
[Insider, though a significant portion is free.]
📢New feature: Lineups leaderboard!
Sort all the lineups league-wide by all of Cleaning the Glass' advanced metrics:
For example, here are the league's most efficient offensive lineups with at least 250 possessions played.
New feature added: you can now easily download the table you're looking at with one click!
Certain tables on the site now have a button above them that lets you easily download the table as a CSV file to work with in a spreadsheet.
By popular request, league averages are now available on the different league pages
@cleantheglass
. So it’s now super easy to see which teams rank above or below league average in a given stats, or how those averages have changed across seasons.
New stat added to CTG: location eFG%.
It answers the question: if a team shot the league average FG% from each location on the floor, what would their overall eFG% be?
This gives us a sense of a team’s shot location profile in one number.
Check it out:
The Blake Griffin trade is unlikely to solve either team's problems, but that's less about the trade itself and more about what got them to this point. A front office strategy perspective on the deal. (Insider)
Mario Hezonja likely won’t be the player the Magic imagined when they drafted him fifth overall, but he could still fill a valuable role with improvement, writes contributor Dylan Murphy.
It's incredible how efficient Reggie Jackson has been since joining the Clippers.
His 45% 3PT% is the best in the league for point guards so far this season.
Mitchell Robinson's Summer League performance was in some ways jaw-dropping — and in others, head-scratching. Contributor Bjorn Zetterberg takes a look.
Learn even a little bit about Luka Doncic, and it’s easy to believe in his future superstardom. But dig a little bit deeper, and there is plenty to study and discuss.
The Knicks have the best FG% defense at the rim so far this year, but last night the Suns made 84% of their shots at the basket (95th percentile) to end New York's win streak.
The Clippers have managed a top 5 offense while ranking 29th in how often they shoot at the rim.
Yesterday they faced a Bucks defense that is all about preventing shots at the basket. The result? One of the lowest rates of getting to the rim and the line in any game this year.
The Rockets have been a major surprise on defense, and there may be no player more responsible than Luc Mbah a Moute. Introducing a new feature where I provide the detail behind an intriguing stat. (For subscribers)
The Oklahoma City Thunder have the record of a mediocre team but the point differential of a very good one. Which matters more? And what does it tell us about the Thunder's future?
Steve Clifford has once again completely turned around a team's defense in his first season. But why did it take so long for things to click this year, and what is behind Orlando's recent defensive surge?
What is the draft like inside a team? I go through the questions posed by subscribers and lay it all out for you, in part 1 of a two-part series. [Free]
New Feature: player trends!
See at a glance how a player’s performance has changed over the course of a season.
For example, check out Porzingis’ sharply improved play over the last few weeks of the season:
Asked Kerr about this
@kpelton
Curry usage stat: "There's a lot that goes in to all that. We see all the numbers and all the combinations. There are plenty of theories that we could talk about. I'm gonna leave that to you guys to assess and figure out."
There's so much data on Cleaning the Glass that sometimes it can be overwhelming for new users. So we're aiming to solve that with a series of short guides that walk you through a team/player analysis.
Here is the first from
@rohitnaimpally
on the Kings: