Feels like the opportune moment to bring you a tasting menu of recent Bloomberg UK Politics Podcast episodes – what Leader of the House of Commons
@PennyMordaunt
says "people who own the country" are listening to (we'll take that!!)
A thread...
👀
“Without Brexit, we wouldn’t be talking about austerity this week,” Michael Saunders tells me in his first on-air interview since leaving the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.
Says it’s not just the City of London but the whole UK economy that’s been damaged by Brexit
Just had a worrying conversation with UK Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch.
I asked whether, given the
@OBR_UK
's forecast on the impact of Brexit, to grow the economy the government needs to negotiate closer ties with the EU.
She said the OBR’s forecasts were never “quite right”.
It's worrying because the lack of an OBR forecast alongside the September mini-budget, and criticism of the fiscal watchdog by then ministers like Jacob Rees-Mogg, were a huge factor in the market turmoil around Trussonomics.
And we have another budget coming on November 17...
At the time, former BOE governor Mark Carney said ministers were undermining the credibility of UK economic institutions – the OBR, the Bank of England and the Treasury.
Now, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are relying on an OBR forecast to give markets faith in their fiscal plans.
Bailey clearly uncomfortable talking about Brexit but Swati Dhingra pulls no punches.
“It’s undeniable now that we’re seeing a bigger slowdown in trade in the UK than in the rest of the world. That’s showing up despite the statistics being much worse than they used to be.”
Is Kemi Badenoch telling us the OBR's sums can't be trusted?
"The OBR has a view, we have a view," she says.
Listen to that full
@BloombergRadio
interview here, produced by
@James_Woolcock
, with a write-up via
@EllenAMilligan
(we also talk trade 🇺🇸🇮🇳):
Leaked
@michaelgove
letter warns 70% of EU-bound trucks might not be ready for new post-Brexit border controls by January, meaning 7,000 lorries could face 2-day delays in Kent - worse if winter Covid spike means border staff off sick
@Telegraph
story 👇
Treasury Select Committee's
@rushanaraali
asks Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey whether he agrees with Michael Saunders that without Brexit, there probably wouldn’t be an austerity budget.
Have we self-harmed?
"Yes, there is an effect. We've not been surprised by that."
Without a Brexit trade deal, three-quarters of hauliers will automatically lose the right to take goods to and from the Continent, the freight industry warns
@Telegraph
story 👇🏽
(Register to read for free)
Thanks to
@LogisticsUKNews
UK Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch's comments on the OBR not going down well this morning.
Here's RBC Capital Markets (
@rbccm
) David Parkinson's morning note, titled 'Badenoch face-palm':
A month into Brexit, firms are being slowly ground down.
Just teething problems?🤔
"Bureaucracy is the new reality and there’s more to come," says
@SamuelMarcLowe
Hidden under Covid, the effects seeped into all parts of the economy...
@business
👇
Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch questions the accuracy of economic forecasts produced by the OBR, the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog
🎧 Listen to her full interview with
@lizzzburden
:
Michael Saunders’ advice to Jeremy Hunt on Thursday?
Focus on measures that avoid hurting the economy more & boost productivity — education and training, better trade ties with the EU and fixing the rise in long-term sickness that has prompted many to drop out of the workforce.
🚨Delighted to share that I’m moving to Bloomberg on Dec 14. Same beat:
@economics
, mainly trade. Can’t wait to get started but will miss my wonderful colleagues
@Telegraph
and
@CoronaNomicsTV
. Covering Brexit and Covid for such a great paper this past year has been a privilege.
This is a story we'll be writing for a long, long time. These are small firms but they're what British business is made of. If your company is affected by post-Brexit red tape in a way we haven't mentioned, please get in touch: eburden6
@bloomberg
.net 📩
Next, British exporters must register to pay VAT in EU nations.
It's prompting a number of companies to halt their cross-border trade,
@bdoaccountant
says.
For eco-friendly nappy and wet wipe seller
@mama_bamboo
, "We have to ask is it worth all the time and effort.”
Crucially, fixing the hole in the labour market (masked by the good news of low unemployment) would kill two birds with one stone: grow the economy and cut inflation.
Write-up via
@tetley_liza
:
Next up: CE mark
Products sold in the EU need one to show they meet standards, but the UK will develop its own, so firms selling in both need to register twice
Subscription service
@TheCuriosityBox
, which teaches kids about science, says it's "a ridiculous level of duplication"
After five wonderful years in print, thrilled to share I’m moving to
@BloombergTV
as Europe, Middle East & Africa Economics & Government Correspondent 📺🌍
Got tips/analysis? Drop me a note on eburden6
@bloomberg
.net
Another case:
@PotatoHouseUK
sells seed potatoes but new rules mean the EU effectively isn't accepting them 🥔
“We’ll need phytosanitary certificates & the paperwork’s going to have to accompany every order," says
@andrewskea
, who worries for the SME he built over 20 years
To simplify the new forms, some shippers are refusing to carry loads with a mix of products from different companies, which disproportionately hurts firms shipping in smaller quantities
@scotfooddrink
wants a grace period on enforcement until July
Economics has a 'dirty secret' that's driving women away: it's a 'testosterone-fuelled bear pit', one of the UK's most influential economic policymakers says.
🧵, and full story with
@PhilAldrick
:
A quarter of the world's female population turns menopausal in 2030 and the productivity losses of not supporting them adequately cost the global economy billions of dollars a year
A thread...
Via
@economics
👉
The principal of Edinburgh University has been accused of suppressing women’s rights after he backed trans activists in a row over “transphobic” stickers around campus... including some which read: “Female is a biological reality”
@thetimesscot
And finally, there are port delays & costs...
“Things keep getting stuck,” says Welsh PPE and sensor maker
@RotothermGroup
. “I’m now having to buy up what stock there is in the UK at 3x the price”
🚛🚢 The rise in post-Brexit cross-Channel freight rates is expected to stick - was up 39% on Q3 last week
@RHADuncanB
says it'll "never fall completely because there’s a permanent added cost of the significant extra bureaucracy"
@business
story 👇
For all the chaos, there were some really uplifting scenes at Dover today. Remember
@Khalsa_Aid
, who were handing out curries for the stranded drivers yesterday? Today they were back with 1,000
@dominos
pizzas 🍕
Maybe it is Christmas after all... 🎄
@Quicktake
👇🏽
"It feels like a dress rehearsal for Brexit."
Trade and travel links between the U.K. and continental Europe slowly reopened after France eased border restrictions, but backlogs led to tensions at the Port of Dover.
@lizzzburden
was there
Breaking free of Brussels bureaucracy was meant to herald a bonfire of red tape for Britain. In the first 100 days of
@Brexit
, the only thing many businesses burned was money...
Via
@economics
with
@DeirdreHipwell
👇
Trade bodies have threatened legal action against the Government's new Brexit customs system - the Trader Support Service (TSS) - claiming it will unfairly distort competition
@Telegraph
story (register to read free) 👇
Brexit explains 80% of why UK inflation will stay higher for longer, says ex-Bank of England policymaker
@AdamPosen
, who'd back a half-point rate rise next week.
Via
@economics
following our interview at the
@UKandEU
conference this morning:
Reporting from Dover today. Grim. Grimmer if you’re a haulier, desperate to spend Christmas with your family after 48hrs in a queue without proper toilets 🚛🚛🚛
@business
story 👇🏽
More to come
"The govt’s in a weird denial phase. If you’re trading with the EU, the paperwork's difficult, you probably can’t find a customs agent & your haulage arrangements are probably delayed. There’s something bad happening at the borders." -- Road Haulage Association
@RHARodMcKenzie
🚚
The Bank of England starts quantitative tightening today - the 1st major central bank to sell govt bonds actively.
It shows the BOE is confident in markets and wants to retool for the next crisis.
So the UK is a guinea pig for how markets react to the end of easy money...
UK inflation STILL in double digits - surprising economists AGAIN
Means a quarter-point hike pretty much nailed on for the Bank of England in May
Momentum higher in UK than eurozone/US
Chancellor says it shows why fighting inflation is no.1 priority
"It's not the news that the Bank of England or the prime minister would have wanted"
As new figures show UK inflation lingering in double digits,
@lizzzburden
explains what it means for the government — and interest rates
🇬🇧🇬🇭 Failure to reach a post-Brexit trade deal with Ghana meant a shipment including
@Fairtrade
bananas faced £17.5k in tariffs at Portsmouth last night 🍌
@GarethThomasMP
: “It beggars belief that they left sorting out a deal with a key Commonwealth ally so late”
@economics
👇
🍻 BrewDog CEO
@BrewDogJames
says Brexit's been 'tragic' for UK business & it costs ~40% more to make a case of beer than 18mo ago
Still, London's his preferred destination for an IPO & selling to a big brewer isn't 'part of the plans'
Via
@BloombergTV
:
Brexit "has been tragic for UK business," Brewdog CEO James Watt says
"It's massively handicapped UK companies that do business in Europe with zero benefit," he tells
@lizzzburden
After 30 September your old bank notes are no longer legal tender.
I asked
@bankofengland
chief cashier Sarah John what to do with them.
Via
@Quicktake
👇🏽
💷 Got an old £20 or £50 paper banknote in your wallet? You won’t be able to use it from the end of September.
Here’s what you can do with your old notes
‘Twas a sweet honour to judge the Royal Economic Society’s Young Economist of the Year award…16 years after winning it! Sweeter that a pair of kick-ass northern lasses took the prize
Watch out for Yiya Zhang & Sami Shahadat’s essay in the
@FT
& thanks to
@DiscoverEcon
&
@KPMG
If Rishi Sunak can get a Brexit deal over the line, it would unleash TENS OF BILLIONS of pounds of business investment for the UK, boost growth and hand the government more funds for public services/tax cuts
Story with
@philaldrick
:
🇬🇧🇪🇺 In this week's Beyond Brexit news:
The UK’s official fiscal watchdog says leaving the EU held back trade and the recovery from Covid-19, and Boris Johnson compares Ukraine’s fight for freedom to Brexit.
Read & subscribe to the newsletter 👇
The Scot justice sec
@HumzaYousaf
has confirmed that
@policescotland
record suspects' gender as they self-ID leading to warnings that rape stats will be skewed, women will be at risk in refuges and self-ID is being introduced "thru the back door"
If you know me, you know nothing makes me happier than the Golden Arches. So here's an explanation of UK inflation and the latest Bank of England decision through the tale of...a cheeseburger🍔😅
“We are truck drivers. We don’t come into contact with anybody. I want to go home. I don’t know where I will have Christmas.” 🚛🚛🚛
My latest from Dover for
@business
👇🏽
UK inflation beats expectations for the 4th straight month – staying at 8.7%
That'll bolster bets that the Bank of England will raise rates as high as 6% – which Bloomberg Economics says will mean recession
The mortgage pain worsens...
UK inflation remains "hot, hot, hot," says
@lizzzburden
, who adds investors will now be ramping up bets on the Bank of England making more aggressive rate hikes
🇬🇧🇯🇵 Why did the UK-Japan trade talks stall over Stilton and where will they end up?
@MichitoTsuruoka
, professor at Keio University in Japan, says there isn't "realistic, political sense in London"
My latest for
@Telegraph
(register to read free) 👇
Latest UK jobs stats show the labour market's cooling more slowly than expected
Unemployment fell, earnings shot up
Suggests the economy is resilient (a double edged sword -- it'll spur inflation)
Markets see BOE rates at 5.7% by Feb
£ jumps v $
UK jobs data show the economy "is more resilient than we thought," says
@lizzzburden
It's "a major surprise" that means a Bank of England rate hike this month looks "pretty nailed on"
UK inflation is back in single digits but came in WAY above economists' expectations
Traders now see Bank of England interest rates peak EVEN HIGHER -- at 5.5%
More via
@BloombergTV
:
Plaid Cymru’s
@LSRPlaid
asks Rishi Sunak at PMQs whether he agrees with the Office for Budget Responsibility or his trade secretary Kemi Badenoch, who in a
@BloombergRadio
interview told me its forecasts on Brexit were never “quite right”.
Here’s his answer:
If UK interest rates hit 6% - a possibility markets are flirting with - Bloomberg Economics reckons that'll trigger a 2% fall in GDP, meaning Rishi Sunak fails to hit his target of growing the economy this year
More on the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe pod:
The Bank of England is expected to raise rates by 50bp today to 3.5% – highest in 14 years. Andrew Bailey's under fire for letting inflation get to double digits and it's proving stubbornly high...
It's Bank of England decision day, with many investors and economists expecting a half-point increase in the key rate
@lizzzburden
explains what to look for (via
@BloombergUK
)
Cut rates now, Andy Haldane says
“It’s 1 thing to miss inflation on the way up, it’s another to then have crushed the economy on the way down. That double blow to credibility is one I’d be looking to avoid.”
From one of the BOE’s biggest ex hawks…
The Bank of England risks deepening the UK's recession if it doesn't cut interest rates soon, ex-BOE chief economist Andy Haldane (now
@theRSAorg
) tells us on the Bloomberg UK Politics Podcast
Listen here:
And read more:
"Short-termism at its worst"
The UK extended relaxed limits on truckers' hours, meant to alleviate the post-Brexit/Covid labour shortage
@RHARodMcKenzie
says poorer conditions will only put more EU drivers off applying, exacerbating supply chain issues
🇬🇧 🇨🇦 Britain’s expected to launch post-Brexit trade talks with Canada soon, with the goal of reaching a deal this year
@DmitryOpines
says Liz Truss could be “heading for yet another negotiating shouting match over cheese” 🧀
@Telegraph
story 👇🏽
UK inflation falls to lowest in more than a year - driven down (more than expected) by food & fuel - services and core also eased
£ down 0.6% to $1.29 - looks like August could be just a 25bp hike from BOE
Interview with
@JohnGlenUK
on
@BloombergTV
0740
👀Not the only announcement from
@SebastianEPayne
today... He confirms on the Bloomberg UK Politics Podcast he's in the selection process to be the Conservative candidate for Selby
Subscribe here for today's episode -- out just after 12pm:
More on this on today's UK Politics Podcast with Onward's
@SebastianEPayne
: Millennials not turning Tory when usually they might...
Live at 12pm on
@BloombergRadio
and subscribe here to listen on Apple podcasts:
Delighted to have won
@MHPC
#30ToWatch
for my city and business coverage this year. Thanks so much to my contacts, editors and mentors who made it possible.
UK inflation falls but less than economists expected.
Strip out food & energy and it stayed the same (was forecast to fall). Services inflation actually rose…
Traders already raised where they are Bank of England rates peaking after yesterday’s hot jobs data - so still 6%
Traders are holding their bets for the Bank of England rate to hit 6% by March, after UK inflation fell less than expected
@lizzzburden
breaks down the key numbers
🇬🇧🇪🇺 In this week's Beyond Brexit news:
The UK’s fiscal watchdog says Brexit will hurt the economy more than the coronavirus pandemic, and Britain uses its new freedoms to cut booze duties.
Read & subscribe to the newsletter 👇
🚛🚢 The rise in post-Brexit cross-Channel freight rates is expected to stick - was up 39% on Q3 last week
@RHADuncanB
says it'll "never fall completely because there’s a permanent added cost of the significant extra bureaucracy"
@business
story 👇
🇬🇧🇪🇺 Brexit checks/delays mean the rate of freight firms rejecting contracts to take goods to/from the UK is up AGAIN - truckers returning empty to skip hassle 🚚
France-UK volumes down 38% on Jan 2020 as firms bypass Britain
New
@TRANSPOREON_TPG
data👇
Assistant trade correspondent reporting for duty from Felixstowe
Bringing you all the latest on the strike action from Britain’s biggest container port, via
@BloombergTV
and
@BloombergRadio
🚢
🇬🇧🇪🇺 UK exports to the EU continued to recover in June and are back to pre-pandemic levels (excluding precious metals)
ING's
@SmithEconomics
says that shows businesses have largely adapted to the new processes
Via
@economics
@BBGVisualData
w/
@pogkas
👉🏾
UK wage growth hit a record in July as job vacancies passed 1 million, pushing up inflation - with the economy back open, companies are scrambling for staff...
Via
@economics
👉🏾
Overall, the first month of Brexit has underlined that the UK & EU are no ordinary trading partners - consequences are only starting to play out
“Proximity matters,” says
@DavidHenigUK
. “Seamless trade is a thing of the past"
@business
story here 👇
🇬🇧🇪🇺 "Teething problems"? Looks more like a root canal...
The first
@ons
UK trade data since Brexit show exports to the EU plunged 41% from Dec to Jan, while imports dropped 29%
Via
@economics
👇
Big day for central banks and we have a line-up of some very smart voices to take you through today's BoE, ECB decisions - as well as the Fed from yesterday
📺:
@flacqua
/
@jrandow
/
@krisaqnews
/
@lizzzburden
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via
@economics
👇🏾
DOUBLE DIGITS... UK inflation hits 10.1% in July - beating economists' expectations AGAIN - more than 5x the BOE's target - a new 40 year high
That leaves another 50bp hike v much on the table at the Bank's Sept meeting
More on
@BloombergRadio
now with
@stephencrrll
&
@atbwebb
Pret a Manger is a bellwether for the London economy
I spoke to Pano Christou, its CEO, about what he sees for the future of office life
He says
@Pret
will no longer 'follow the skyscrapers' but will now 'bring Pret to the people'
Via
@economics
👇
🇬🇧🇪🇺 Real-time data confirm post-Brexit trade is recovering
The rejection rate for cargo shipped France-UK almost halved last week - lowest since the last week of Nov 🚚🚢
"Market players slowly adjusting to the new circumstances," says
@TRANSPOREON_TPG
@economics
exclusive👇
Mixed UK job data this morning
Economic inactivity falling
Weaker pay growth
BUT
Unemployment held steady
# employees on payrolls rose
Bloomberg Economics reckons we’ll get one more 25bp BOE hike but traders have pared back their bets since last week...
Symptoms of menopause like hot flushes, loss of sleep and mood swings negatively affect 3 in 5 working women, according to the
@CIPD
It found almost a million women left the workforce because of them - a huge, preventable loss that feeds into the gender pay gap & pensions gap
Retail sales beat expectations in July BUT look at the difference between volumes and sales — comes down to high inflation — people are buying less for more
…as this crocodile shows…
Britain’s online stores drove an unexpected jump in retail sales last month, but what might it mean for the Bank of England?
@Lizzzburden
has the latest:
BOE hikes by 50bps - as expected by economists and investors. It was a 3-way split vote: Mann wanted 75, Dhingra and Tenreyro wanted no move. Reflects the environment: stubbornly high inflation + recession.
Here's my snap analysis on
@BloombergTV
, and a thread of more thoughts:
The Bank of England has raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.5%, with policy makers split three ways on the decision
@lizzzburden
has the key takeaways
The war in Ukraine has stunted European jobs growth,
@indeed
data show — countries that rely most on Russia for imports and energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and transportation hardest hit.
Exclusive via
@economics
:
Top economist
@jagjit_chadha
, director of
@NIESRorg
, says politicians should leave the Bank of England to "get on with the job" + concentrate on helping the poorest households through the cost-of-living crisis.
Interview via
@economics
with
@PhilAldrick
:
Bloomberg Economics now sees a UK recession in winter
That's the best-case scenario, assuming the Bank of England takes rates to 5.75% - not the backdrop Rishi Sunak wants for an election
And they don't see inflation at the BOE's 2% target til 2025...
Meanwhile, a Brexit deal on finance could be years off and the City of London is already seeing parts of its business, like stock and derivatives trading, slipping away
More from
@sabrush
&
@virenvaghela
👇
🇬🇧🇪🇺 In this week's Beyond Brexit news:
More banking jobs are moving from Britain to the EU, and official data show UK trade with the bloc plunged in the first quarter
Read & subscribe to Bloomberg's Beyond Brexit newsletter 👉
Latest GDP data: the UK economy didn’t grow in the last three months of 2022, as economists expected. In December, it shrank 0.5%. That means the UK dodged a recession, even as strikes weighed on output, thanks to decent gains at the start of the quarter.
🚛🚢🇬🇧🇫🇷 Last-minute rates for France-UK freight were 4x higher than normal last week after Covid & Brexit complicated supply chains, real-time
@TRANSPOREON_TPG
data show
@economics
story with
@_DavidGoodman
👇
After yesterday's inflation shock, the Bank of England's 13th straight hike today is pretty much nailed on. Could it be a half-point hike to 5%?
Here's what to expect...
It's all eyes on the Bank of England, ahead of another expected interest rate hike
@lizzzburden
breaks down what markets and economists will be looking for
For the first time in 14 years, mortgage costs are so high it's cheaper to rent a home than buy one (not that it's great being a renter either)
@CapEconUK
expects it to stay this way til the second half of next year...
Story via
@tomelleryrees
:
It’s Bank of England decision day!
Markets are on a knife edge between whether the BOE will hike by 25/50bps from 5% today after June’s cooler-than-expected inflation reading
Here’s what to watch out for, via
@BloombergTV
:
"Markets are on the knife edge"
Debate is raging about the Bank of England's rate decision today —
@lizzzburden
breaks down what economists and investors are predicting
If you're someone who criticises
@Telegraph
before reading it, here's some of my recent coverage of trade/Brexit/economics. You can read for free this weekend and make an *informed* judgement.
First, a Brexit exclusive:
🇬🇧🇪🇺 In this week's Beyond Brexit news:
More calls for looser immigration rules to cure the supply chain issues that hit inventories on grocery store shelves
Read & subscribe to the newsletter 👇